AMP Capital Investors: Karrinyup Activity Centre Structure ... daps... · Assumes growth of...

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AMP Capital Investors: Karrinyup Activity Centre Structure Plan

City of Stirling Impacts of Growth at the Karrinyup Secondary Activity Centre 12 June 2014

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Stirling Shakespeare Ave/Beryl St LAC’s

260 $6,722.02 500 $6,830.85 1.62%

Stirling Stirling Isolated Uses (10)

390 $5,610.32 390 $5,981.22 6.61%

Stirling Yokine LAC 2805 $4,574.50 3,000 $4,828.27 5.55% Stirling Tuart Hill NAC 800 $5,541.32 800 $5,834.17 5.28% Stirling Powell Street LAC 2200 $5,518.36 2,200 $5,831.11 5.67% Stirling Scarbourough Beach Rd

#2 NAC 1185 $5,564.67 1,185 $5,826.69 4.71%

Stirling McDonald/Main St NAC 100 $3,614.92 100 $3,896.84 7.80% Stirling French Street LAC 220 $3,494.60 220 $4,311.56 23.38% Stirling St Peters Place LAC 1328 $4,698.67 1,328 $5,240.14 11.52%


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Table 5 below shows estimated trade impacts based on:

No growth, at the Karrinyup SAC as at 2026. Includes all local planning strategy proposals for surrounding LGA’s as at 2026. Assumes growth of 110,000m² at the Stirling SMC, 55,000m² at Mirrabooka, 125,000m² at the

Joondalup SMC and 75,000m² at the Whitfords SAC. Table 5

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Joondalup Whitfords SAC 49924 $7,725.43 75,000 $7,150.08 -7.45% Joondalup Warwick DAC 25614 $6,064.54 50,000 $5,848.50 -3.56% Joondalup Gwendoline Drive NAC 6148 $7,121.20 10,000 $6,883.78 -3.33% Joondalup Kinross A NAC 4300 $4,784.90 4,300 $4,838.78 1.13% Joondalup Carine Glades NAC 3991 $6,832.14 3,991 $6,367.93 -6.79% Joondalup Kingsley NAC 3983 $5,412.93 3,983 $4,963.12 -8.31% Joondalup Beldon NAC 3768 $10,849.57 3,768 $10,008.16 -7.76% Joondalup Hillary’s NAC 2992 $8,639.61 2,992 $7,763.24 -10.14% Joondalup Beaumaris City NAC 2459 $7,236.22 2,459 $6,840.29 -5.47% Joondalup Duncraig (north) NAC 2388 $7,073.22 2,388 $6,635.89 -6.18% Joondalup Heathridge NAC 2324 $6,885.54 2,324 $6,678.63 -3.00% Joondalup Padbury NAC 2064 $7,112.69 2,064 $6,422.67 -9.70% Joondalup Hepburn NAC 1971 $5,001.15 1,971 $4,576.24 -8.50% Joondalup Ocean Reef NAC 1957 $7,547.21 1,957 $7,142.90 -5.36% Joondalup Mullaloo NAC 1882 $7,118.47 1,882 $6,571.65 -7.68% Joondalup Sheppard Way NAC 1789 $7,105.50 1,789 $6,607.05 -7.01% Joondalup Candlewood NAC 1662 $7,085.13 1,662 $7,233.29 2.09% Joondalup Glengarry NAC 2890 $7,030.53 2,890 $6,495.74 -7.61% Joondalup Sorrento NAC 1278 $5,794.18 1,278 $5,432.88 -6.24% Joondalup Edgewater NAC 1236 $7,271.09 1,236 $7,474.12 2.79% Joondalup Greenwood Plaza LAC 1000 $7,215.54 1,000 $7,025.16 -2.64% Joondalup Duncraig Village LAC 885 $6,499.95 885 $5,986.42 -7.90% Joondalup Coolibah LAC 808 $7,216.00 808 $6,592.84 -8.64% Joondalup Springfield LAC 728 $5,081.38 728 $4,614.46 -9.19% Joondalup Harman Road LAC 724 $6,356.87 724 $5,767.48 -9.27% Joondalup Moolanda South LAC 678 $5,427.93 678 $5,164.37 -4.86% Joondalup Moolanda North LAC 206 $5,524.43 206 $5,156.84 -6.65% Joondalup Kinross B LAC 500 $4,554.25 500 $4,787.13 5.11% Joondalup Lilburne Road LAC 450 $5,705.34 450 $5,283.78 -7.39% Joondalup Woodvale DAC 7460 $7,725.82 15,000 $8,340.14 7.95% Joondalup Sorrento_Quays

(tourist) 7261 $3,823.31 8,000 $3,504.50 -8.34%

Joondalup Currambine DAC 12000 $9,704.55 15,000 $10,391.60 7.08% Joondalup Greenwood DAC 4976 $7,410.74 10,000 $7,118.33 -3.95% Joondalup Craigie NAC 2337 $7,398.58 2,337 $6,921.09 -6.45% Joondalup Joondalup (LFR) 12443 $4,691.36 12,443 $4,598.15 -1.99% Joondalup Waldecks 80 $6,135.85 80 $6,019.50 -1.90% Joondalup Joondalup Drive (LFR) 8534 $5,332.42 8,534 $5,351.23 0.35% Joondalup Joondalup SMC 92990 $6,921.73 125,000 $7,399.23 6.90% Stirling Stirling SMC 57483 $6,248.52 110,000 $6,867.93 9.91% Stirling Osborne Park 61967 $4,632.78 61,967 $5,002.60 7.98%

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Stirling Karrinyup SAC 51035 $7,776.10 100,000 $8,089.60 4.03% Stirling Mirrabooka SAC 39129 $5,029.02 55,000 $5,118.91 1.79% Stirling Main Street DAC 6755 $6,616.48 6,755 $7,212.29 9.00% Stirling Gwelup NAC 4772 $9,894.99 4,772 $10,255.17 3.64% Stirling North Beach NAC 2411 $7,117.79 2,411 $7,110.66 -0.10% Stirling Westminster NAC 2870 $7,133.31 2,870 $7,188.08 0.77% Stirling Flora Terrace LAC 1197 $3,823.20 1,197 $3,670.97 -3.98% Stirling Stirling Village LAC 1168 $7,187.28 1,168 $7,570.63 5.33% Stirling Fieldgate LAC 901 $6,361.33 901 $6,332.35 -0.46% Stirling Stirling DAC 13588 $6,202.64 17,000 $6,506.21 4.89% Stirling Balcatta Industrial (LFR) 22375 $6,449.44 22,375 $6,771.31 4.99% Stirling Northlands DAC 9761 $8,118.33 13,000 $8,493.74 4.62% Stirling Scarborough Beach DAC 9508 $7,363.68 18,000 $7,827.06 6.29% Stirling Dianella DAC 15359 $8,519.60 18,000 $9,848.37 15.60% Stirling Dog Swamp DAC 11287 $8,437.67 14,000 $9,530.34 12.95% Stirling Mount Lawley DAC 16561 $6,655.16 16,561 $7,696.24 15.64% Stirling Inglewood DAC 18419 $7,425.40 21,245 $8,591.25 15.70% Stirling Glendalough DAC

(HGLSP area) 500 $4,725.78 500 $4,710.50 -0.32%

Stirling Lynn Street LAC 298 $5,987.84 298 $5,597.76 -6.51% Stirling Carine LAC 620 $7,032.07 620 $7,248.56 3.08% Stirling Sackville Terrace LAC 3732 $6,770.07 6,500 $7,400.70 9.32% Stirling Gildercliffe / Herbert

Street LAC’s 1325 $4,023.59 1,325 $4,087.37 1.59%

Stirling Calais Road NAC 927 $3,804.97 927 $3,875.88 1.86% Stirling Doric Street LAC 1381 $7,353.67 1,381 $7,464.04 1.50% Stirling The Downs NAC 1939 $7,234.87 1,939 $7,766.38 7.35% Stirling Woodland NAC 2804 $4,279.17 2,804 $4,810.70 12.42% Stirling Morris Street NAC 3379 $3,292.61 3,379 $3,544.78 7.66% Stirling Flynn St / Herdsman

Pde LAC’s 727 $7,219.97 727 $7,530.56 4.30%

Stirling Jones Street LAC 1387 $7,231.88 1,387 $8,227.00 13.76% Stirling Glendalough NAC 1012 $7,212.93 1,012 $7,668.63 6.32% Stirling Westminster LAC 3912 $7,358.09 3,912 $8,050.94 9.42% Stirling Nollamara NAC 1096 $5,426.14 1,096 $6,027.22 11.08% Stirling Flinders Street LAC 740 $4,312.36 740 $4,821.30 11.80% Stirling Blythe Ave / Hector St

LAC’s 2061 $5,550.51 2,061 $5,176.09 -6.75%

Stirling Mirrabooka Village (Honeywell) NAC

564 $4,520.34 564 $4,834.61 6.95%

Stirling Pimlott Street LAC 2004 $4,965.19 2,004 $5,661.58 14.03% Stirling Adair Pde NAC 3314 $4,313.48 3,314 $4,439.84 2.93% Stirling Walter Road NAC 4407 $3,145.68 4,407 $3,627.59 15.32% Stirling Coode/Walter St NAC 350 $6,003.67 3,500 $6,470.18 7.77% Stirling Harrison Street LAC 1260 $4,388.52 1,260 $4,995.01 13.82% Stirling Lord St, Highgate LAC 613 $4,301.54 613 $4,961.05 15.33% Stirling Bayley St LAC 300 $5,073.50 300 $4,780.15 -5.78% Stirling Elsie St LAC 510 $3,783.09 1,300 $3,749.59 -0.89% Stirling Sholl Avenue LAC 250 $4,000.39 250 $3,939.04 -1.53% Stirling Bennion St LAC 1735 $4,006.43 3,000 $4,201.71 4.87% Stirling Joyce St NAC 490 $3,833.46 490 $4,098.88 6.92% Stirling Brighton St LAC 460 $4,202.87 460 $4,688.95 11.57%


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Stirling Muriel Avenue LAC 364 $4,246.92 364 $4,716.06 11.05% Stirling Herdsman Hotel LAC 1400 $7,622.25 1,900 $8,319.45 9.15% Stirling Shakespeare Ave/Beryl

St LAC’s 260 $6,722.02 500 $7,076.93 5.28%

Stirling Stirling Isolated Uses (10)

390 $5,610.32 390 $6,195.74 10.43%

Stirling Yokine LAC 2805 $4,574.50 3,000 $5,026.84 9.89% Stirling Tuart Hill NAC 800 $5,541.32 800 $6,087.59 9.86% Stirling Powell Street LAC 2200 $5,518.36 2,200 $6,087.20 10.31% Stirling Scarbourough Beach Rd

#2 NAC 1185 $5,564.67 1,185 $6,074.18 9.16%

Stirling McDonald/Main St NAC 100 $3,614.92 100 $4,052.07 12.09% Stirling French Street LAC 220 $3,494.60 220 $4,407.10 26.11%

Table 6 below shows estimated trade impacts based on:

No growth at the Karrinyup SAC as at 2026. Includes all local planning strategy proposals for surrounding LGA’s as at 2026. Assumes growth of 110,000m² at the Stirling SMC, 55,000m² at Mirrabooka, 125,000m² at the

Joondalup SMC and no growth at the Whitfords SAC.

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Joondalup Whitfords SAC 49924 $7,725.43 50,000 $7,668.38 -0.74% Joondalup Warwick DAC 25614 $6,064.54 50,000 $5,967.86 -1.59% Joondalup Gwendoline Drive NAC 6148 $7,121.20 10,000 $7,304.42 2.57% Joondalup Kinross A NAC 4300 $4,784.90 4,300 $4,968.57 3.84% Joondalup Carine Glades NAC 3991 $6,832.14 3,991 $6,626.69 -3.01% Joondalup Kingsley NAC 3983 $5,412.93 3,983 $5,181.14 -4.28% Joondalup Beldon NAC 3768 $10,849.57 3,768 $10,677.67 -1.58% Joondalup Hillary’s NAC 2992 $8,639.61 2,992 $8,578.02 -0.71% Joondalup Beaumaris City NAC 2459 $7,236.22 2,459 $7,196.19 -0.55% Joondalup Duncraig (north) NAC 2388 $7,073.22 2,388 $7,063.84 -0.13% Joondalup Heathridge NAC 2324 $6,885.54 2,324 $7,035.81 2.18% Joondalup Padbury NAC 2064 $7,112.69 2,064 $6,952.52 -2.25% Joondalup Hepburn NAC 1971 $5,001.15 1,971 $4,904.26 -1.94% Joondalup Ocean Reef NAC 1957 $7,547.21 1,957 $7,695.97 1.97% Joondalup Mullaloo NAC 1882 $7,118.47 1,882 $7,197.91 1.12% Joondalup Sheppard Way NAC 1789 $7,105.50 1,789 $6,988.27 -1.65% Joondalup Candlewood NAC 1662 $7,085.13 1,662 $7,413.65 4.64% Joondalup Glengarry NAC 2890 $7,030.53 2,890 $6,856.39 -2.48% Joondalup Sorrento NAC 1278 $5,794.18 1,278 $5,733.14 -1.05%

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Joondalup Edgewater NAC 1236 $7,271.09 1,236 $7,745.23 6.52% Joondalup Greenwood Plaza LAC 1000 $7,215.54 1,000 $7,209.01 -0.09% Joondalup Duncraig Village LAC 885 $6,499.95 885 $6,356.10 -2.21% Joondalup Coolibah LAC 808 $7,216.00 808 $6,799.94 -5.77% Joondalup Springfield LAC 728 $5,081.38 728 $5,013.25 -1.34% Joondalup Harman Road LAC 724 $6,356.87 724 $6,205.61 -2.38% Joondalup Moolanda South LAC 678 $5,427.93 678 $5,322.12 -1.95% Joondalup Moolanda North LAC 206 $5,524.43 206 $5,385.70 -2.51% Joondalup Kinross B LAC 500 $4,554.25 500 $4,896.62 7.52% Joondalup Lilburne Road LAC 450 $5,705.34 450 $5,604.49 -1.77% Joondalup Woodvale DAC 7460 $7,725.82 15,000 $8,593.86 11.24% Joondalup Sorrento_Quays (tourist) 7261 $3,823.31 8,000 $3,813.86 -0.25% Joondalup Currambine DAC 12000 $9,704.55 15,000 $10,743.40 10.70% Joondalup Greenwood DAC 4976 $7,410.74 10,000 $7,318.38 -1.25% Joondalup Craigie NAC 2337 $7,398.58 2,337 $7,423.96 0.34% Joondalup Joondalup (LFR) 12443 $4,691.36 12,443 $4,778.69 1.86% Joondalup Waldecks 80 $6,135.85 80 $6,165.02 0.48% Joondalup Joondalup Drive (LFR) 8534 $5,332.42 8,534 $5,569.28 4.44% Joondalup Joondalup SMC 92990 $6,921.73 125,000 $7,604.89 9.87% Stirling Stirling SMC 57483 $6,248.52 110,000 $6,955.60 11.32% Stirling Osborne Park 61967 $4,632.78 61,967 $5,066.46 9.36% Stirling Karrinyup SAC 51035 $7,776.10 51,035 $8,280.77 6.49% Stirling Mirrabooka SAC 39129 $5,029.02 55,000 $5,164.64 2.70% Stirling Main Street DAC 6755 $6,616.48 6,755 $7,288.17 10.15% Stirling Gwelup NAC 4772 $9,894.99 4,772 $10,469.08 5.80% Stirling North Beach NAC 2411 $7,117.79 2,411 $7,323.82 2.89% Stirling Westminster NAC 2870 $7,133.31 2,870 $7,282.32 2.09% Stirling Flora Terrace LAC 1197 $3,823.20 1,197 $3,867.31 1.15% Stirling Stirling Village LAC 1168 $7,187.28 1,168 $7,685.17 6.93% Stirling Fieldgate LAC 901 $6,361.33 901 $6,437.06 1.19% Stirling Stirling DAC 13588 $6,202.64 17,000 $6,579.66 6.08% Stirling Balcatta Industrial (LFR) 22375 $6,449.44 22,375 $6,847.76 6.18% Stirling Northlands DAC 9761 $8,118.33 13,000 $8,584.68 5.74% Stirling Scarborough Beach DAC 9508 $7,363.68 18,000 $8,001.96 8.67% Stirling Dianella DAC 15359 $8,519.60 18,000 $9,889.26 16.08% Stirling Dog Swamp DAC 11287 $8,437.67 14,000 $9,577.37 13.51% Stirling Mount Lawley DAC 16561 $6,655.16 16,561 $7,715.58 15.93% Stirling Inglewood DAC 18419 $7,425.40 21,245 $8,609.37 15.94% Stirling Glendalough DAC (HGLSP

area) 0 $0 10,000 $5,192.91 100.00%

Stirling Lynn Street LAC 500 $4,725.78 500 $4,876.72 3.19% Stirling Carine LAC 298 $5,987.84 298 $5,879.18 -1.81% Stirling Sackville Terrace LAC 620 $7,032.07 620 $7,370.92 4.82% Stirling Gildercliffe / Herbert

Street LAC’s 3732 $6,770.07 6,500 $7,505.81 10.87%

Stirling Calais Road NAC 1325 $4,023.59 1,325 $4,143.12 2.97% Stirling Doric Street LAC 927 $3,804.97 927 $3,917.01 2.94% Stirling The Downs NAC 1381 $7,353.67 1,381 $7,540.17 2.54% Stirling Woodland NAC 1939 $7,234.87 1,939 $7,828.64 8.21% Stirling Morris Street NAC 2804 $4,279.17 2,804 $4,879.67 14.03% Stirling Flynn St / Herdsman Pde

LAC’s 3379 $3,292.61 3,379 $3,564.53 8.26%


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Stirling Jones Street LAC 727 $7,219.97 727 $7,612.96 5.44% Stirling Glendalough NAC 1387 $7,231.88 1,387 $8,269.95 14.35% Stirling Westminster LAC 1012 $7,212.93 1,012 $7,751.41 7.47% Stirling Nollamara NAC 3912 $7,358.09 3,912 $8,120.19 10.36% Stirling Flinders Street LAC 1096 $5,426.14 1,096 $6,064.62 11.77% Stirling Blythe Ave / Hector St

LAC’s 740 $4,312.36 740 $4,848.52 12.43%

Stirling Mirrabooka Village (Honeywell) NAC

2061 $5,550.51 2,061 $5,223.10 -5.90%

Stirling Pimlott Street LAC 564 $4,520.34 564 $4,862.87 7.58% Stirling Adair Pde NAC 2004 $4,965.19 2,004 $5,684.56 14.49% Stirling Walter Road NAC 3314 $4,313.48 3,314 $4,455.56 3.29% Stirling Coode/Walter St NAC 4407 $3,145.68 4,407 $3,638.44 15.66% Stirling Harrison Street LAC 350 $6,003.67 3,500 $6,522.16 8.64% Stirling Lord St, Highgate LAC 1260 $4,388.52 1,260 $5,011.03 14.19% Stirling Bayley St LAC 613 $4,301.54 613 $4,978.61 15.74% Stirling Elsie St LAC 300 $5,073.50 300 $5,038.89 -0.68% Stirling Sholl Avenue LAC 510 $3,783.09 1,300 $3,900.84 3.11% Stirling Bennion St LAC 250 $4,000.39 250 $4,064.33 1.60% Stirling Joyce St NAC 1735 $4,006.43 3,000 $4,283.36 6.91% Stirling Brighton St LAC 490 $3,833.46 490 $4,146.87 8.18% Stirling Muriel Avenue LAC 460 $4,202.87 460 $4,743.92 12.87% Stirling Herdsman Hotel LAC 364 $4,246.92 364 $4,739.95 11.61% Stirling Shakespeare Ave/Beryl St

LAC’s 1400 $7,622.25 1,900 $8,385.04 10.01%

Stirling Stirling Isolated Uses (10) 260 $6,722.02 500 $7,155.67 6.45% Stirling Yokine LAC 390 $5,610.32 390 $6,241.26 11.25% Stirling Tuart Hill NAC 2805 $4,574.50 3,000 $5,064.70 10.72% Stirling Powell Street LAC 800 $5,541.32 800 $6,134.90 10.71% Stirling Scarbourough Beach Rd

#2 NAC 2200 $5,518.36 2,200 $6,131.54 11.11%

Stirling McDonald/Main St NAC 1185 $5,564.67 1,185 $6,128.12 10.13% Stirling French Street LAC 100 $3,614.92 100 $4,078.45 12.82%

5.0 Discussion The outputs above show impacts exceeding - 10% where proposed growth at the Karrinyup SAC and Whitfords SAC is included (Table 3). Activity centres experiencing trade impacts over - 10% are within the Joondalup LGA area predominantly, along with neighbourhood centres at the northern periphery of the Stirling LGA area. With respect to affected local and smaller neighbourhood centres, some variation in results is expected at the lowest level of the hierarchy given the extent to which these centres differ in the composition of goods and services; and given they do not contain the full range of PLUC 5 goods. Retailers will also respond to their trading environment and competition; which is reflected in

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perceived locational advantages, pricing or other individual circumstances contributing to success or otherwise.

The results listed in Table 4 (excluding growth at Whitfords SAC) and Table 5 (excluding growth at Karrinyup SAC) show tolerable trade impact estimates across the Stirling and Joondalup LGA areas. However, whether Whitfords or Karrinyup expands, adverse trade impacts approaching or exceeding - 9% are predominantly associated with centres in the Joondalup LGA area. With reference to Table 2 above (projected population growth by LGA), it is apparent that a low level of growth is projected for the Joondalup LGA area (~6%) between now and 2026. This constrains growth potential for the Joondalup LGA and is the reason why trade impacts for centres are shown to be greater in this LGA area. The outcome of a SAT review process relating to the proposed Whitfords SAC activity centre plan is yet to be resolved. From a strategic planning perspective it may be more orderly to facilitate growth at the Karrinyup SAC. In isolation, each proposal results in low trade impacts on centres in the Stirling LGA area and tolerable trade impacts on centres in the Joondalup LGA area, however the Karrinyup SAC trade area features residents having relatively high incomes / household expenditure, and there is higher population growth throughout the Stirling LGA. The approved / planned growth for the Ocean Keys SAC and Alkimos SAC by 2026 was also included in the modelling. This growth, and the ongoing growth of higher order centres in Wanneroo will contribute to a lower level of patronage which will affect the Whitfords SAC more than it does the Karrinyup SAC.

Please contact me on 9321 3011 should you wish to discuss in any greater level of detail.

Yours faithfully,

Jeff Malcolm

MGA TOWN PLANNERS

Cc: Mat Selby – Department of Planning

AMP Capital

Karrinyup Shopping Centre Development Application

Activity Centre Performance Report - Amended

December 2016

Karrinyup Development Application Activity Centre Performance Report

AMP Capital

2

Document Control

Document Version Description Prepared By Approved By Date Approved

v 1.0 Draft development application activity centre performance report

Suzie Turner Michael Chappell 27 February 2015

v 2.0 Final development application activity centre performance report

Suzie Turner Michael Chappell 27 February 2015

v 3.0 Additional explanatory appendices added Suzie Turner Michael Chappell 25 June 2015

v 4.0 Additional explanatory appendices added - Amended

Robert Kyne Michael Chappell 10 May 2016

v 5.0 Additional impacts added Robert Kyne Michael Chappell 20 December 2016

Disclaimer

This Briefing Note has been prepared for AMP Capital. The information contained in this document has been prepared with care by the authors and includes information from apparently reliable secondary data sources which the authors have relied on for completeness and accuracy. However, the authors do not guarantee the information, nor is it intended to form part of any contract. Accordingly all interested parties should make their own inquiries to verify the information and it is the responsibility of interested parties to satisfy themselves in all respects.

This document is only for the use of the party to whom it is addressed and the authors disclaim any responsibility to any third party acting upon or using the whole or part of its contents.


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Contents

1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................ 5 1.1 Purpose .................................................................................................................................................................. 5 1.2 Report Structure ................................................................................................................................................. 5 1.3 Justification for Expansion .............................................................................................................................. 5 2 Planning Policy Context ......................................................................................... 7 2.1 Performance-Based Activity Centre Planning .......................................................................................... 7 2.2 Legacy of the Previous Planning Policy ...................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Challenges of Developing Diverse Activity Centres .............................................................................. 8 3 Activity Centre Performance ................................................................................ 10 3.1 State and Local Government Performance Goals ............................................................................... 10 3.2 Activity Centre Diversity ............................................................................................................................... 11 4 Rationale for Floorspace Allocation .................................................................... 12 4.1 Shop/Retail Floorspace Rationale ............................................................................................................. 12 4.2 Office/Business Floorspace Rationale ...................................................................................................... 12 4.3 Entertainment/Recreation/Culture Floorspace Rationale ................................................................ 13 4.4 Health/Welfare/Community Services Floorspace Rationale ............................................................ 13 4.5 Other Retail Floorspace Rationale ............................................................................................................. 14 4.6 Residential Floorspace Rationale ............................................................................................................... 14 5 Amended Development Application 1 ............................................................... 15 5.1 Diversity .............................................................................................................................................................. 15 5.2 Impact .................................................................................................................................................................. 15 6 Amended Development Application 2 ............................................................... 16 6.1 Diversity .............................................................................................................................................................. 16 6.2 Impact .................................................................................................................................................................. 16 7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 18

8 Appendix A: Comparison of Alternative Retail Models ..................................... 19

9 Appendix B: Impacts of Growth at Karrinyup Secondary Centre ..................... 20

10 Appendix C: Pracsys Response to Department of Planning Comments .......... 21

11 Appendix D: Stirling Strategic Metropolitan Centre and Karrinyup Secondary Centre .................................................................................................................... 22

12 Appendix E Assumptions and Methodology ...................................................... 23 12.1 Methodology .................................................................................................................................................... 23


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12.2 Assumptions ..................................................................................................................................................... 24 12.3 Supply .................................................................................................................................................................. 25 13 Glossary ................................................................................................................. 26


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1 Executive Summary

1.1 Purpose

Following the submission of a structure plan to the City of Stirling and Western Australian Planning

Commission (WAPC) in 2014, AMP Capital have prepared a development application detailing their

proposed first stage of redevelopment of Karrinyup Secondary Centre.

This report has been prepared to provide clarity on the alignment of the structure plan and the

development application in terms of retail and non-retail floorspace provided, and to provide an

understanding of the change to activity centre performance resulting from the first stage of expansion at

Karrinyup Secondary Centre. The change to performance has been considered for the whole activity centre,

rather than just the site of the development application.

1.2 Report Structure

The report has the following structure:

1. Executive summary

2. Planning policy context

3. Activity centre performance

4. Rationale for floorspace allocation

5. Conclusion

6. Appendix A: Comparison of alternative retail models

7. Appendix B: Impacts of growth at Karrinyup Secondary Centre

8. Appendix C: Pracsys response to Department of Planning comments

9. Appendix D: Stirling Strategic Metropolitan Centre and Karrinyup

10. Glossary

1.3 Justification for Expansion

The following points summarise the justification and rationale for expanding Karrinyup Secondary Centre:

• The designation of Karrinyup as a secondary centre within the activity centre hierarchy requires a

higher level of service to the catchment population than is currently provided by existing

floorspace.

• Regeneration of existing floorspace and expansion to provide goods and services aligned with

current consumer desires is critical to ensure current market share is maintained, a high level of

service is provided to the catchment population, and increased leakage online and outside the

catchment is avoided.

• Retail activity is the only existing competitive advantage at Karrinyup Secondary Centre that can

be leveraged for further activity centre development and maturation into a genuinely intense,

diverse, accessible centre.


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• The expansion will genuinely provide access to a range of new activities not previously available

at the centre or nearby, thus providing an improved level of service to the catchment population.

• The resulting improvement to activity centre performance, and provision of leverage for further

improvements, are in line with aspirations of State and local government.

• The removal of retail floorspace caps from State Government planning policy implies scale of

activity centres is no longer a concern by itself.

• Modelled impacts to competing activity centres are expected to consistently be below the

threshold considered reasonable.


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2 Planning Policy Context

2.1 Performance-Based Activity Centre Planning

Karrinyup Activity Centre is designated a Secondary Centre under State Planning Policy 4.2: Activity Centres

for Perth and Peel (SPP 4.2). This type of centre sits below Strategic Metropolitan Centres in the activity

centres hierarchy, and is expected to perform at a high level in terms of:

• Service population catchment

• Accessibility and transport connectivity

• Range of retail and office floorspace types

• Residential density.

Two measureable goals for the economic performance of high-level activity centres are required by the

WAPC. These are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Secondary Centre Expected Performance

Policy Goal Requirement

Directions 2031 Contribute meaningfully to the employment self-sufficiency target of 121%

An additional 500 jobs at Karrinyup Secondary Centre by 2031

SPP 4.2 Improve the diversity of activity at the centre Achieve a minimum of 40% non-retail to 60% retail floorspace diversity (mix of land uses floor-space as a proportion of the total centre floor-space)

Source: State Planning Policy 4.2: Activity Centres for Perth and Peel, WAPC, 2010

2.2 Legacy of the Previous Planning Policy

The performance-based approach advocated by the current SPP 4.2 is a significant diversion from the

previous Metropolitan Centres Policy. The previous policy used retail floorspace caps to restrict the scale of

retail within activity centres. There was no requirement to address the following economic criteria as part of

a centre expansion:

• Diversity of activity (provision of different types of activity opportunities beyond retail)

• Employment opportunities provided (quantity or quality)

• The location, role and function of the centre within the wider regional activity centres network

(competitive or complementary roles each centre within a wider population catchment play)

The new activity centres policy therefore represents an improvement to understanding how our activity

centres can be developed to meet the needs of a growing population and changing trends in how people

desire to access activity.

However, the legacy of the previous policy approach and of the trends of the time is a series of retail-focused

shopping centres that have now been designated 'activity centres', and are expected to perform as such.


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The requirement to demonstrate diverse land uses beyond just retail is necessary for retail-based centres to

mature beyond single-purpose centres to true multi-purpose trip generators with a range of employment

opportunities. However, to expect many of these centres to reach the diversity targets in a single expansion

is impractical and would be effectively penalising them from adhering to the previous planning policy.

The rationale for the previous approach appears to be an attempt to prevent centres from 'out-competing'

one another and reducing the level of service to the catchment population. However, from an economic

point of view, competition between activity centres is generally regarded as essential to providing a high

level of service to users within the catchment, and to facilitate better competition with currently expanding

online forms of activity (e.g. retail, services, education, etc.)1. Policies limiting competition have been

identified in the recent Federal government Competition Policy Review Draft Report as a significant

constraint to business entry and expansion across Australia.

2.3 Challenges of Developing Diverse Activity Centres

There are significant challenges involved in developing retail-based activity centres into genuinely intense,

diverse, accessible activity centres that facilitate multi-purpose trips for the catchment population. People

are now desiring to have access to employment, goods and services, entertainment, social interaction,

education, recreation and variety of other activities close to their homes. Many activity centre owners and

developers today understand and value these types of centres as they recognise that the form and functions

of shopping centres needs to change to meet the needs of our evolving society. Stagnation implies

degeneration, which is not in the interests of activity centre owners or the catchment population.

It is expected that each development at an activity centre, however large or small, will provide improvement

in one or more areas of activity centre performance. Changing a retail-based centre to a genuinely diverse

centre is a process that typically takes years of incremental improvement, as each improvement provides

leverage for an improvement in a related area. The development of Karrinyup Secondary Centre is no

exception. Karrinyup Activity Centre Structure Plan, and the development application, are part of an overall

strategy to address the challenge of turning a retail-based centre into an activity centre with a more

competitive value proposition. In the short term this is expected to include:

• A higher quality retail offer, better aligned with the desires of the current population

• Integrated high density residential dwellings, diversifying the type of housing product available in

the area

• A restaurant/entertainment precinct separate from the main shopping centre to provide

opportunities for social and recreation activity

• Floorspace for complementary population-driven land uses, such as offices, medical clinics and

consulting rooms, community uses and recreation uses

1 Pg. 24, Competition Policy Review Draft Report, September 2014, Commonwealth of Australia. http://competitionpolicyreview.gov.au/files/2014/09/Competition-policy-review-draft-report.pdf


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• Improvement in the quantity and quality of employment available at the centre

In the longer term, the redevelopment of Karrinyup Secondary Centre is expected to provide leverage for

the following:

• Improved public transport to the centre

• Increased residential density in the area surrounding centre

• Attraction of some strategic activity and higher quality employment


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3 Activity Centre Performance

3.1 State and Local Government Performance Goals

A range of activity centre performance goals are embedded in State and local government planning policies.

The economic, social and environmental goals for Karrinyup Secondary Centre, and the extent to which the

development application is expected to address these goals, have been summarised in Figure 2.

Figure 2. Karrinyup Secondary Centre goals

Type of Goal Known Goals Guiding Policy Performance Improvement

Economic

Increase Employment Self Sufficiency

Directions 2031 Karrinyup and Gwelup Local Area Plan City of Stirling Local Housing Strategy

Increase employment during construction and operations of expanded centre.

Improve offer of goods and services available at activity centre (diversity)

SPP 4.2 Karrinyup and Gwelup Local Area Plan City of Stirling Strategic Community Plan 2013-2023

Wider variety of goods and services available, better aligned with catchment needs.

Increase the population in the catchment of the centre

SPP 4.2 City of Stirling Local Housing Strategy City of Stirling Strategic Community Plan 2013-2023

Delivery of high density housing as part of the centre expansion.

Increase the housing diversity

SPP 4.2 Karrinyup and Gwelup Local Area Plan City of Stirling Local Housing Strategy City of Stirling Strategic Community Plan 2013-2023

Delivery of apartment housing as part of the centre expansion.

Improve the integration of activity into the surrounding areas


Provision of residential and restaurant/entertainment precinct outside shopping centre will improve access and integration.

Economically viable expansion of retail and non-retail floorspace at the centre.

SPP 4.2 City of Stirling Strategic Community Plan 2013-2023

Economic modelling has been undertaken to ensure the expansion of floorspace is supportable, and that impacts on competing centres are within acceptable ranges.

Social

Further develop the social activities and community focus of the centre

SPP 4.2 Karrinyup and Gwelup Local Area Plan

The restaurant/entertainment precinct and potential for additional recreation floorspace is expected to provide opportunities for social transactions which do not currently exist in the local area.

Development of residential population at the centre

SPP 4.2 City of Stirling Local Housing Strategy

Delivery of high density housing as part of the centre expansion.

Environmental

Decrease the amount of car trips made by providing employment and activity nearer places of residence


Additional retail and non-retail floorspace will provide increased quantity of employment, and are likely to also improve employment quality. The range of activities available at the centre beyond retail are expected to increase significantly.

Develop centre in a more sustainable manner

SPP 4.2 City of Stirling Local Housing Strategy

Elements of sustainable design are expected to be incorporated into the expanded centre. The potential for improved public transport and pedestrian access are expected to increase the sustainability of the centre.

Source: Pracsys 2015


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3.2 Activity Centre Diversity

Improving the activity centre diversity is one of the most important performance goals of SPP 4.2. The

expected change to diversity as a result of the proposed development is shown in Figure 3. The future

diversity target as shown in the Karrinyup Activity Centre Structure Plan: Retail Sustainability Assessment is

also shown to demonstrate the proposed development is moving the centre diversity in the desired

direction.

The diversity is expected to improve from the current 17.0% mix of uses to 20% mix of uses. Given the

current lack of drivers for non-retail floorspace, and the need to leverage retail floorspace as the only

existing competitive advantage of the centre, this improvement is significant.

Figure 3. Current and future diversity

Planning Land Use Category (PLUC)

Current Floorspace 2014

(m2 NLA)

Stage 1 Floorspace 2018

(m2 NLA)

Floorspace 2031

(m2 NLA)

Floorspace Beyond 2036

(m2 NLA)

Shop/ retail 53,292 93,355 97,000 100,000

Other retail 90 300 1,000 1,500

Office/ business 7,264 10,394 16,500 40,000

Health/ welfare/ community services 1,093 2,654 4,500 7,500

Entertainment/ recreation/ culture 2,457 10,116 13,500 16,500

Total floorspace* 64,196 116,819 132,500 165,500

Total mix of uses floorspace 10,904 23,464 35,500 65,500

Diversity ratio 83% shop/retail 17% mix of uses

80% shop/retail 20% mix of uses

73% shop/retail : 27% mix of uses


Source: Pracsys analysis of Department of Planning Land Use and Employment Survey 2008, Rowe Group 2014 and 2015 *Note: total floorspace excludes floorspace in other PLUC, such as utilities, residential and service industry.


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4 Rationale for Floorspace Allocation

The following section provides an understanding of the rationale for providing the different types of

floorspace within Karrinyup Secondary Centre.

4.1 Shop/Retail Floorspace Rationale

The most significant increase in floorspace proposed as part of this development application is shop/retail.

Retail floorspace is currently the biggest competitive advantage of the activity centre. To continue to remain

a competitive advantage, regeneration of existing floorspace and provision of new floorspace

Stirling City Centre is a more appropriate and attractive location for many non-retail uses, such as major

offices and bulky goods, this is therefore the lever most likely to result in a successful intervention to push

the maturation of the centre towards a more intense, diverse and accessible centre. The retail floorspace is

expected to act as an anchor for other types of floorspace to trade off as more people are attracted to the

centre. Development of other types of floorspace can then support more multipurpose trips to the centre.

Retail floorspace includes shops selling convenience and comparison goods and services. A significant

proportion of these are likely to be offerings typically found within shopping centres such as fashion retail,

groceries, fast food and personal services. However, a significant proportion of the new retail floorspace will

be higher quality food and beverage retail - restaurants and cafes. These are considered shop/retail under

the WAPC definition but behave more like entertainment offerings in the way they attract patrons, and in

their function. Development of a restaurant precinct at Karrinyup Shopping Centre was identified by the

local community in the Karrinyup and Gwelup Local Area Plan2 as a means of:

• Enhancing safety within the centre

• Providing social interaction opportunities

• Increasing the hours of operation

• Increasing vibrancy, diversity and energy of the centre

4.2 Office/Business Floorspace Rationale

There are currently few drivers for suburban office floorspace, and a significant oversupply in the Perth CBD

and surrounding suburbs3. The surrounding resident population is therefore expected to be the primary

driver for new office floorspace at Karrinyup Secondary Centre. This is likely to include the following types of

tenants:

• Real estate agents

• Tax accountants

• Medical centres

• Allied health practitioners

2 Page 6, Karrinyup and Gwelup Local Area Plan, City of Stirling, 2010 3 Pages 26-29, Research and Forecast Report Second Half 2014 Australia and New Zealand, Colliers International, 2014


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• Medical consulting rooms

• Small businesses providing goods and services for the supply chains of other floorspace within the

activity centre

Currently, the offer of these types of land uses within the activity centre is limited to several medical

consulting rooms and allied health practitioners. The development of additional office floorspace is

expected to provide significant opportunity for the activity centre to provide a level of service appropriate to

a maturing Secondary Centre.

4.3 Entertainment/Recreation/Culture Floorspace Rationale

Entertainment floorspace includes land uses such as libraries, licensed venues and recreation centres.

Currently entertainment floorspace is limited to:

• Karrinyup library

• Karrinyup community centre

• TAB

• Gym/fitness studios

It is intended that additional entertainment will provide a range of new opportunities for the local

population not currently available, such as:

• Small bars

• Fitness studios

• Tavern

• Exhibition space

• Playspace

The actual uses achieved for the centre will depend on the individual tenants that can be attracted.

However, the Karrinyup and Gwelup Local Area Plan undertaken by the City of Stirling identified these types

of uses as desired by the local population.

4.4 Health/Welfare/Community Services Floorspace Rationale

Current health floorspace is comprised of optometrists within the shopping centre and a childcare on

Davenport road. There is expected to be a small increase in health floorspace as part of the centre

expansion. Land uses attracted may include:

• Additional childcare centres

• Child health clinic

• Veterinary clinic or pet grooming services

• Early childhood education establishments


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4.5 Other Retail Floorspace Rationale

Currently, the service station provides the only Other Retail floorspace within the activity centre. Further

expansion of this type of floorspace is not considered desirable for the centre from both a developer point of

view and from an SPP 4.2 perspective. This type of floorspace, typically comprised of showrooms, bulky

goods and large format retail, has the following limitations at Karrinyup Secondary Centre:

• Relies heavily on car transport for access

• Unsuitable for locations adjacent to residential areas without suitable buffering

• Is better located on the periphery of activity centres

• Typically located in large agglomerations to enable consumers to compare durable goods

• The business model relies on cheap land and single storey buildings to reduce costs

4.6 Residential Floorspace Rationale

While residential floorspace is not considered part of the SPP 4.2 diversity calculation, increasing the

residential density of activity centres is a required outcome of activity centre planning. The delivery of

residential dwellings in the first stage of redevelopment of Karrinyup Shopping Centre is a reflection of the

readiness of the market for high density housing in the location, and the favourable configuration of the

existing urban form.

In many secondary centres and strategic metropolitan centres throughout the Perth Metropolitan Region

the existing amenity and market do not lend themselves to delivery of high density residential within

activity centres. Significant intervention is often required to facilitate the development of residential

floorspace. Delivering residential at Karrinyup Secondary Centre can therefore be considered a significant

success factor for the overall improvement in functioning and maturation of the centre.


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5 Amended Development Application 1

Following acceptance of the initial Development Application (DA), AMP has made a number of changes to

the plans for Karrinyup Shopping Centre, requiring an amended DA. These changes are relatively minor in

the context of the planned expansion, with little impact on the justification for Karrinyup Shopping Centre

to expand.

5.1 Diversity

The amended DA has seen minor adjustments to the planned floorspace mix. Figure 4 shows the diversity

and floorspace mix across each point in time.

Figure 4. Amended Development Application Diversity



(m2 NLA)

Approved DA Floorspace 2018

(m2 NLA)

Amended DA Floorspace 2018

(m2 NLA)

Shop/ retail 53,292 90,717 90,556

Other retail 90 90 0

Office/ business 7,264 14,722 13,359

Health/ welfare/ community services 1,093 2,359 2,602

Entertainment/ recreation/ culture

2,457 6,047 7,056

Total floorspace* 64,196 113,934 113,873

Total mix of uses floorspace 10,904 23,218 23,317




Source: Pracsys analysis of Department of Planning Land Use and Employment Survey 2008, Rowe Group 2014, 2015 and 2016

There are minor revisions downward across shop retail and office, particularly in office/business and

reflecting the deteriorating market conditions in commercial floorspace. Office vacancy rates in the CBD

have climbed from 16.6% to 19.2% from January 2015 to January 20164. To compensate, health, welfare,

community services and entertainment, recreation, and culture floorspace have increased. This has resulted

in the same improvement from existing diversity levels as currently approved floorspace.

5.2 Impact

The reconfiguration of floorspace in the amended DA has resulted in total shop/retail floorspace decreasing.

Given this, it is expected that impacts on other activity centres will be less or the same. In addition, the

change in floorspace is well within the margin of error that would be afforded of a retail model. As a result, a

new iteration of modelling is not seen as necessary as impacts would be the same or less. 4 Property Council Office Vacancies 2016 (http://www.propertycouncil.com.au/Web/Content/Media_Release/WA/2016/Perth_Office_Vacancies_Climb_on_Back_of_New_Supply.aspx)


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6 Amended Development Application 2

A second amended DA has been produced by AMP. The major feature of this DA has been the inclusion of a

cinema, boosting entertainment floorspace significantly.

6.1 Diversity

The amended DA has seen minor adjustments to the planned floorspace mix. Figure 5 shows the diversity

and floorspace mix across each point in time.

The DA application has included revisions upward in retail, office, health/welfare/community services and

entertainment floorspace. The most significant revision occurs in entertainment and reflects the addition of

a cinema, further improving the centre’s diversity ratio compared to the previous DA.

Figure 5. Amended Development Application Diversity



(m2 NLA)

Approved DA Floorspace 2018

(m2 NLA)

Amended DA Floorspace 2018

(m2 NLA)

Shop/ retail 53,292 90,871 93,355

Other retail 90 300 300

Office/ business 7,264 9,352 10,394

Health/ welfare/ community services 1,093 2,019 2,654

Entertainment/ recreation/ culture 2,457 4,886 10,116

Total floorspace* 64,196 107,428 116,819

Total mix of uses floorspace 10,904 16,557 23,464




Source: Pracsys analysis of Department of Planning Land Use and Employment Survey 2008, Rowe Group 2014, 2015 and 2016

6.2 Impact

The new DA has included additional retail floorspace of 2,484 m2, requiring impacts to be considered and

measured. For the purposes of this exercise, Pracsys has used additional retail floorspace of 5,000 m2 to

provide a conservative estimate of the impacts. The impacts reported mirror those previously reported (see

Figure 6). It is important to note that the numbers below depict the impact of the total expansion.

As shown, all impacts are below the threshold of 10%. This is not unexpected given the relatively small size

of the expansion over that already approved. Given this, it is recommended that the development be

approved.

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