Amoun Company Analysis and Credit Rating

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Middle East Rating & Investors Service Corporate Credit Analysis September 2005 MERIS Analysis 1 Amoun Pharmaceutical Company (Amoun) Ratings and Contacts Category Current Rating Previous Rating Analyst Phone Entity Rating: Senior Unsecured BBB BBB Marwa E. Mohamed Ezzat – Cairo [email protected] +202 749 5616 Bond Rating : Subordinated Debt BBB BBB Mohamed Abbakar – Cairo [email protected] +202 749 5616 Rating Outlook Positive Stable Operating Statistics Balance Sheet Statistics: Figures in EGP mn 1H05* FY 04 FY 03 FY 02 Figures in EGP mn 1H05* FY 04 FY 03 FY 02 ROA (%) 23.8 10.8 0.8 0.5 Turnover 403.3 322.67 258.6 240.9 ROE (%) 46.0 24.4 2.1 1.5 Total Assets 523.54 477.23 502.2 509.4 Operating Margin (%) 33.3 24.7 18.3 21.3 Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.1 1.5 4.1 4.2 EBITDA 144.4 90.7 58.4 62.7 EBITDA/Interest Ex. (x) 5.8 3.4 1.3 1.3 EBITDA Margin (%) 36.0 28.0 23.0 26.0 Cash & C. Equivalent/ Current Liabilities (%) 2.0 2.0 0.4 1.0 * Based on Annualized figures * Based on Annualized figures Strengths/Opportunities 1. Strong and high caliber management team with a proven track record. 2. Solid improvement in business and financial operations, in light of the sales restructuring plan, which took place in early 2004. 3. The introduction of new drugs is anticipated to improve the company’s cash flow and financial position. 4. Well diversified product mix, with no single concentration higher than 15% of total sales. 5. Relatively strong portfolio in the pipeline. 6. High demand for Amoun products, as a result of the high quality of its products and their reasonable prices. 7. Large hidden value in the state-of-the-art factory. 8. Health expenditure in Egypt is below average compared to other countries in the region, which gives more room for potential growth. Challenges/Risks 1. Although cash flow improved, liquidity is still – to some extent – constrained. 2. Exposed to foreign exchange risk, coupled with unclear hedging policy. 3. High receivables concentration risk (more than 90% through a sister company). 4. No clear succession plan. 5. Although, MOH has shown signs of flexibility in its pricing system, the domestic pharmaceutical industry is still a highly regulated industry and also subject to political influence.

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A Pharmaceutical Company analysis in Egypt

Transcript of Amoun Company Analysis and Credit Rating

Page 1: Amoun Company Analysis and Credit Rating

Middle East Rating & Investors Service

Corporate Credit Analysis

September 2005

MERIS Analysis 1

Amoun Pharmaceutical Company (Amoun)

Ratings and Contacts Category Current

Rating Previous Rating

Analyst Phone

Entity Rating: Senior Unsecured BBB BBB Marwa E. Mohamed Ezzat – Cairo [email protected]

+202 749 5616

Bond Rating : Subordinated Debt BBB BBB Mohamed Abbakar – Cairo [email protected]

+202 749 5616

Rating Outlook Positive Stable

Operating Statistics Balance Sheet Statistics:

Figures in EGP mn 1H05* FY 04 FY 03 FY 02 Figures in EGP mn 1H05* FY 04 FY 03 FY 02

ROA (%) 23.8 10.8 0.8 0.5 Turnover 403.3 322.67 258.6 240.9 ROE (%) 46.0 24.4 2.1 1.5 Total Assets 523.54 477.23 502.2 509.4 Operating Margin (%) 33.3 24.7 18.3 21.3 Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.1 1.5 4.1 4.2 EBITDA 144.4 90.7 58.4 62.7 EBITDA/Interest Ex. (x) 5.8 3.4 1.3 1.3 EBITDA Margin (%) 36.0 28.0 23.0 26.0 Cash & C. Equivalent/

Current Liabilities (%) 2.0 2.0 0.4 1.0

* Based on Annualized figures * Based on Annualized figures Strengths/Opportunities 1. Strong and high caliber management team with a proven track record. 2. Solid improvement in business and financial operations, in light of the sales restructuring plan, which took place in

early 2004. 3. The introduction of new drugs is anticipated to improve the company’s cash flow and financial position. 4. Well diversified product mix, with no single concentration higher than 15% of total sales. 5. Relatively strong portfolio in the pipeline. 6. High demand for Amoun products, as a result of the high quality of its products and their reasonable prices. 7. Large hidden value in the state-of-the-art factory. 8. Health expenditure in Egypt is below average compared to other countries in the region, which gives more room for

potential growth. Challenges/Risks 1. Although cash flow improved, liquidity is still – to some extent – constrained. 2. Exposed to foreign exchange risk, coupled with unclear hedging policy. 3. High receivables concentration risk (more than 90% through a sister company). 4. No clear succession plan. 5. Although, MOH has shown signs of flexibility in its pricing system, the domestic pharmaceutical industry is still a

highly regulated industry and also subject to political influence.

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COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS

Amoun Pharmaceuticals Co. ("Amoun"), in El-Obour City, Egypt, is one of the best known pharmaceutical companies in the domestic market with around 5.5% market share in June 2005 up from 4.62% in 2003 (according to IMS-Health-Care, the world’s leading provider of information on the global pharmaceutical and healthcare industries)1. Amoun owns a state-of-the-art factory designed by John Brown Construction Co. in Chicago according to the “US Food & Drugs Administration (FDA)” requirements. Amoun establishment roots back to the 70’s, when Dr. Sarwat Bassily established the first private sector pharmaceutical company in Egypt, which took over the importation and distribution activities for pharmaceutical products in Egypt. Going forward, in 1985 he established "Advanced Biochemical Industries (ABI)" which was sold in 1989 to Glaxo. In 1991, the second factory “Amoun Pharmaceutical Industries Company (APIC)” was established and was again sold to GlaxoWellcome Egypt in 1998, in a deal valued at EGP 427mn, which was one of the biggest deals on “Cairo & Alex. Stock Exchange” at that time. Around 8% of the deal was against total assets, while the balance was the selling price of 25 generic products. At that time APIC ranked the fourth company among the Egyptian pharmaceutical companies. Finally, “Amoun Pharmaceutical Company – the company under consideration – (Amoun)” was launched in 1998 as a joint stock company. Since 1985 and until today, Amoun has been the fastest growing pharmaceutical company in Egypt, and it ranked the second player in the current year (fifth player last year) in the local market. It is worth noting that the company has been recognized by UNIDO in 1997, as one of the most innovative and successful companies in Africa; Amoun is the sole pharmaceutical company in Egypt to be granted this certificate. Moreover and in line with Amoun strategy to build its quality and credibility by pursuing high international standards, the company has been awarded a number of certificates, namely; ISO 9001, ISO 14001, ISO 18001 and BS 7799. Most of these certificates recognize its ability to manufacture products according to international standards. Amoun holds a very broad product portfolio, containing a mix of human, veterinary and additive nutrient products. The human drugs account for most of the production mix, with nearly 375 out of 460 products in 1H05, compared to 333 out of 416 in mid 2004. The human category includes products in many different pharmaceutical formulations including capsules, tablets, dry syrups, powders, effervescents, syrups, solutions, drops, creams, suppositories, sprays, besides sterile products such as ampoules, vials, sterile drops and ointments. On the other hand the company maintains a good market position across many diverse therapeutic classes, especially in vitamins & minerals, cardio-vascular, antacids & anti-ulcer and antibiotics plus other areas, backed by a large sales force and impressive marketing team allowing the company to effectively compete against multinational companies. Amoun produces a number of drugs under license from multinational companies, such as Merck (Germany), Rowa Wagner (Germany) and Leurquin (France), as well as Sanofi (France) for some veterinary products.

Note: The above graph contains breakdown for 40 drugs, which represent 80% of total sales, while others include the remaining balance. June figures is based on six months results

Human Sales Breakdown by Therapeutic Category

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Vitamins

& M

inerals

Antib

iotic

s & Antifu

ngal

Cardiov

ascu

lar

Analg

esics

& M

uscu

losk

elletal

Gastro

Intestina

l

Antacid

s & A

nti-u

lcer

Antic

ough

& Anti-H

istam

ine

CNS D

isorders

Endo

crina

l Diso

rders

Urulogic

als

Cortic

osteroids

Others

Jun-05 Dec-04 Dec-03

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CREDIT STRENGTHS / OPPORTUNITIES

SALES RESTRUCTURING PROGRAM BASED ON HIGHER PROFITABLE DRUGS STARTED TO REAP FRUIT

Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 421% Growth rate - Growth rate - Growth rate -Growth rate > 16% 20% 11% 15% 5% 10%

1 Concor 1 Antodine 1 Antinal 1 Telebrix2 Neuroton 2 Ketolgin 2 Vitamount 2 Ibiamox3 Hibiotic 3 Gast-reg 3 Apidon 3 Alphintern4 Haema-caps 4 Melocam 4 Xethrone 4 A-Chemotrypsin5 Xenus 5 Cal-heparine 5 Lactodel 5 Rowatinex6 Kerovit 6 Mosedin 6 Stimulan 6 Rowachol7 Nalufin 7 Kapron 7 Cyrinol 7 Rowabraxin8 Erypoetin 8 Aqua-Vera 8 Michaelon9 Urivin 9 Allerfen 9 Philozac

10 Ultrasolv 10 Zolam11 Levoxin12 Hi-Chrome13 Fladazole14 Vermizole

In early 2004, Amoun management started implementing a new sales strategy focusing on the most profitable drugs with higher growth potential, while at the same time, gradually eliminating those with low profitability margins. According to the new re-ordering plan, the total number of drugs constituting the majority of sales (almost 80% of total sales) is divided into 4 sub-groups as shown in the table below. As the above table illustrates, these groups are broken down according to different projected growth rates: Group 1 includes 14 drugs with more than 21% growth rate, Group 2 includes drugs with a growth rate between 16% and 20%, Group 3 consists of drugs with a growth rate of 11% to 15% and finally the last group contains drugs growing within 5% to 10% growth rates. This scheme started to reap fruit, which was reflected into the notable improvement in Amoun’s operations and financial performance. As such, turnover has shown almost 25% increase between year 2003 and year 2004. In our view, this restructuring plan appears promising with a positive impact on the company’s operations. Top Ten Pharmaceutical Products Figures in EGP mn Product Indication Sales

1H05 % of

Total Sales 2004

% Of Total

% Sales Growth*

Type of the product

1- Concor Cardiovascular 25.48 13.0 32.88 10.0 55% Under license from AG-Merck

2- Neuroton Vitamins & Tonics 11.18 6.0 14.82 5.0 51.0 Generic Product 3- Hibiotic Antibiotics & Antifungal 8.03 4.0 13.95 4.0 15.0 Generic Product Sub Total (Top 3 Drugs) 44.69 22.0 61.65 19.0 45.0 4- Antodine Antacids & Anti-ulcer 7.76 4.0 13.44 4.0 15.0 Generic Product 5- Antinal Gastrointestinal 7.2 4.0 10.9 3.0 32.0 Under License from

Lab.Roques, France Sub Total (Top 5 drugs) 59.65 30.0 85.99 27.0 39.0 6- Vitamount Vitamin & Mineral 7.15 4.0 11.82 4.0 21.0 Generic Product 7- Ibiamox Antibiotics & Anti fungal 5.07 3.0 8.78 3.0 15.0 Under License from Istituto

Biochemico Italiano (IBI) SpA

8- Alphintern Analgesics 5.01 2.0 9.06 3.0 11.0 Under license Lab. LEURQUIN, Paris

9- Rowachol Gastrointestinal 4.04 2.0 5.86 2.0 38.0 Under License from ROWA-WAGNER, Germany

10- Alpha - Cymotryspin Analgesics 4.0 2.0 10.6 3.0 (24.0) Under License from LEURQIN, France

Subtotal 84.92 42.0 132.11 41.0 29.0 All other pharmaceuticals 116.75 58.0 190.56 59.0 23.0 Total pharmaceuticals 201.67 100.0 322.67 100.0 25.0 * Based on Annualized Assumptions for 1H05

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PRODUCTS NEWELY LAUNCHED, COUPLED WITH THE INCREASE IN SOME DRUGS SELLING PRICE ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A POSITIVE IMPACT ON TURNOVER The company is planning to introduce 11 new generic drugs during year 2005 – six of which have been already introduced by August 2005 – in several pharmaceutical forms and therapeutic categories. Moreover, the company has received the registration approval for a number of drugs from the Ministry of Health (MoH) during the last year. Between 2004 and early 2005, MoH has permitted the increase in the selling prices of some of Amoun’s foremost drugs (on average +50%), in addition to the pricing of approximately 60 new drugs. In MERIS’s view, the above-mentioned actions will have a positive impact on the company’s business operations and will lead to better performance. According to management, the growth drivers for the company in the medium term will include:

• Concor an under license drug from AG-Merck, falls under the “Cardiovascular class” and generated EGP 32.9mn in 2004 (around 10% of total human sales). Concor was introduced in year 2000 and has succeeded in capturing high market share; according to IMS statistics, it ranks number 1 amongst its peers. This drug will remain the largest contributor to total sales in the new plan and is anticipated to report more than 30% growth rates.

• Neuroton is a generic product under the “Vitamin & Mineral category”, the drug reports around EGP 15mn sales in FY04, and is the second player in the new program. Neuroton ranks number 1 amongst its peers in the same category. The vitamins and minerals therapeutic class represents the main franchise of Amoun.

• Hibiotic is a generic product, falls under the “Antibiotics and Antifungal class” and targets the upper and lower respiratory tract infections as well as gynecological, soft tissues and dental infections. It accounts for approximately 4% of total sales in 2004. Hibiotic comes in two forms; tablets with three strengths and suspension.

• Antodine is a generic product and comes under the “Antacids & Anti-ulcer category”, reporting almost 4% of total sales in FY04 and 1H05. This drug ranked the second among its peers.

• In addition to the abovementioned drugs, Amoun will depend on another drugs in the coming period including, Antinal, Alphintern, Alpha Chymotrypsin, Rowachol, Gasterg and Nalufin.

A RELATIVELY STRONG PRODUCT PORTFOLIO IN THE PIPELINE AND UNDER-REGISTERATION PRODUCTS Since 1999, Amoun has had a powerful track record in launching new drugs. Hence, it succeeded in introducing/ registering annually 27 new drugs on average (in terms of new pharmaceutical representation and new human drugs). As of June 2005, the company has 94 products registered with MoH and priced, but not produced yet. It is worth mentioning that almost 25% of said products are in the latest stage of production. Moreover, there are another 120 products in the pipeline, which are approved by MoH and are currently under registration. In terms of veterinary drugs, at present the company has 22 drugs in the pipeline, 13 drugs of which are under registration. Considering these factors, we believe that Amoun has a relatively strong and well designed portfolio to build on for its future growth. MORE FOCUS TOWARDS EXPORT MARKETS During last year, Amoun accomplished a new strategy to focus gradually on export sales in order to diversify its market base and mitigate the foreign currency exposure. As such, management has identified a number of targeted markets including, Yemen, Sudan, Qatar, Armenia, Tanzania, Ghana, Romania and others. The company has succeeded in registering 228 drugs in different countries in year 2004, a figure which is anticipated to jump to 725 drugs by year 2007. In our view, it remains somewhat early to measure the success of this strategy, especially in light of the minor share of export sales in total sales in FY04. However, according to management, this plan is anticipated to reap fruit starting from next year and to reach 15% of total sales over the coming 5 years. HIGH CALIBER MANAGEMENT IN THE CHAIRMAN OF THE COMPANY AS WELL AS SENIOR MANAGEMENT Dr. Bassily and his family, the main shareholder, retain more than 92% of the company’s shares. Dr. Bassily is considered one of Amoun’s main assets given his long track record in the field. As previously mentioned, this includes the successful establishment of three pharmaceutical companies. Ever since the start of his career, Dr. Bassily has maintained the highest standards in his companies operations and has supported this by recruiting the highest quality managers. Most of the top management used to work with the Chairman at ABI and APIC and chose to continue in

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Amoun. Senior management is being supported by extremely active marketing and sales teams, excellent planning department and a disciplined, professional production team. On the other hand, Dr. Bassily is a political figure being the Deputy of the Drugs Committee in the Shura Council and the Head of the Pharmaceutical Committee in the Egyptian Industrial Union. His long experience and credibility in the industry enabled him to gain such respect. Moreover, being close to policy makers enables him also to convey the main problems hitting the pharmaceutical sector in Egypt.

STRONG MARKETING AND DISTRIBUTION TEAM Amoun has a strong ability to develop and market several therapeutic categories through a competent marketing team and sales force equipped with a state-of-the-art order taking system (mobile data terminal). According to latest IMS-health report, Amoun continued to rank the first player in Egypt in terms of numbers of promotion calls, number of prescriptions by doctors and number of new drugs launched. Furthermore, the estimated total products in Egypt are 6,600 products, 160 of which are top products. Amoun dominates 6% of these top products. The table below illustrates the high efficiency of the marketing team, which was reflected into succeeding in maintaining the highest rank among the peer group in a relatively short period.

Therapeutic class Drug Date of introduction

Rank /Number of competitive drugs in the

same segment

Main competitors drugs in the same segment

Cardio-vascular Concor (AG-Merck-under license ) 2000 No.1 of 17 (up from 15 in

the last year) Tenormin (Under License (UN-L) Astra Zenica ), Blokium (UN-L of Brodiese )

Antacids Antodine (Generic) 1994/2003 No. 2of 28 (up from 23 in the last year)

Zantac (UN-L of GlaxoWelcome), Rantidol (Nasr Phar, Compnay)

Vitamins Neuroton (Generic) 2000/2003 No.1 of 21 Becozyme (UN-L of Roche) Beco (Misr Ph. Company)

Antibiotics Hibiotic (Generic) 2000 No. 7 of 44 Flumox (EIPICO) Augmentin (UN-L of Smithkline Beecham)

LARGE HIDDEN VALUE MANIFESTED IN AL-OBOUR PLANT The company’s sole plant, which is located in Al Obour city spanning around 65,969 square meters, is considered a state-of - the - art factory designed by John Brown – Chicago, according to FDA requirements. The facility is one of the most sophisticated plants in Egypt. It is also the only factory which has a separate area for producing and storing antibiotics drugs. The plant is divided into three production areas: solid, semi solid and sterile, the majority of which is automated. On the other hand, the plant facilities are supplied by reputable global manufacturers, for example Bosch (Germany), Glatt (Switzerland), Diesel (Germany), Norden (Sweden) and Zanchetta (Italy). These facilities have been supplied under special terms, conditions and deep discounts – sometimes reaching 50% discount – granted mainly to Amoun, capitalizing on the Chairman's long track record and reputable name in the pharmaceutical industry. The initial investment cost was EGP 200mn, while the current market value will be higher reflecting the abovementioned discounts, as well as the deep gradual depreciation of the local currency against the US$ and EURO (YE99: 3.4 and 3.3, respectively, compared to 5.7 and 7.0, respectively, as of August 2005). The current utilization rate is around 90% of the designed capacity (based on one shift), which gives room to easily increase the production volume without bearing extra costs. It is of note that the company is in the process of issuing a EGP 150mn long-term bond. This issue will be secured by all the tangible assets of the above-mentioned plant. CREDIT WEAKNESSES / CONCERNS Business Risk Factors: CHALLENGES FACING THE DOMESTIC PHARMACETUICAL INDUSTRY PUT PRESSURE ON OPERATING MARGINS There are two main challenges facing the Egyptian pharmaceutical industry, mainly represented by the effect of the GATT and TRIPS agreements that took place in early this year. So far, these agreements have not shown a notable impact on the domestic pharmaceutical industry. In Dr. Bassily’s view, the effect of the GATT and TRIPS on the domestic market will be minimal prior to 2015, taking into consideration that around 90% of the domestic drug portfolio is non-patent drugs; in other words the drugs, which will be developed after 2005, will be affected badly by the TRIPS.

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The other main challenge facing the industry is the tightly controlled regulatory environment, coupled by an inelastic pricing mechanism. However, MoH has shown some signs of flexibility in terms of selling price increases; though the industry would like to have greater freedom. However the pharmaceutical industry globally is tightly regulated and it seems unlikely that Egypt will introduce significant policy changes. Financial Risk Factors: Significant Improvement in Profitability and Margins In FY04, Amoun reported revenues of around EGP 322.7 mn, compared to EGP 258.6 mn in FY03. Going forward, in June 2005 and on a Y-o-Y basis, the company has succeeded in reporting 70% revenue growth. The significant improvement in turnover was mainly due to the restructuring plan, which we discussed earlier and was reflected into the improvement in liquidity position. Meanwhile, margins have shown notable growth in the same period as a result of many factors including the focus on new products with high margins and increasing the selling prices of a number of drugs. This is in addition to the appreciation of the local currency, coupled with the introduction of the new tax law, which had an impact It is worth noting that more than 90% of the distributsister company wholly owned by Dr. and Mrs. Basrecovery backed by the better collection policy, whicfigure will continue improving in the future to reach addition to the new strategy applied to export sales, w

High Exposure to Foreign Exchange Risk Amoun is highly exposed to foreign currency risk, dusame time, the revenue in foreign currency is coincreases this inherent risk. In order to mitigate thiapproximately 15% of its total sales over the comingactivities in several countries in the Middle East, Afric

Revenue and ProfitabilityFigures in EGP mn 1H05 FY04 FY03 FY02

Revenue 201.7 322.7 258.6 240.9 Growth (%) n.a. 24.8 7.3 13.0 EBITDA 72.2 90.7 58.4 90.7 EBITDA Margin (%) 36.0 28.0 23.0 26.0 Operating Profit 67.1 79.7 47.4 51.3 Operating Profit Margin (%) 33.3 24.7 18.3 21.3 Account Receivables DOH 134.9 169.1 190.4 240.7 Net Income 59.5 53.0 3.9 2.7 Net Income Margin (%) 29.0 16.0 2.0 1.0

on the cost structure.

ion activities are done through Amoun for Distribution Company, a iliy. The accounts receivable days on hand have shown signs of h the company has applied lately. Management foresees that this 120 days, backed by the efficiency of the new collection policy, in here all export sales are done on a cash basis.

Enhancement in the Company’s Cash Flow, Nonetheless Liquidity Remained Constrained Despite the improvement in cash flow measured by net free cash flow and retained cash flow in FY04 and 1H05, the cash coverage ratio, although improved, remained somewhat low. As we mentioned earlier the increase in cash flow was mainly due to the positive impact of the restructuring scheme, which was reflected in higher production/ utilization rates.

Cash Flow & Coverages Figures in EGP mn 1H05 FY04 FY03 FY02 EBITDA 72.2 90.7 58.4 62.7 Tax 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Interest Paid (12.4) (26.7) (46.0) (48.8) CAPEX (5.4) (13.1) (11.8) (22.2) Dividends Paid (9.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Free Cash Flow 45.1 50.9 0.6 (8.3) Retained Cash Flow 64.6 64.0 14.9 14.1 Cash coverage 2.1 1.9 0.4 1.1 EBITDA / Interest Expenses (X) 5.8 3.4 1.3 1.3

MERIS Analysis 6

e to the fact that around 80% of raw materials are imported. At the nsidered insignificant, around 1% of total sales in 2004, which s exposure, the company is planning to increase export sales to 5 years. As such, management has started intensive registration a and Eastern Europe.

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Financial Leverage Figures in EGP mn 1H05 FY04 FY03 FY02 Short-term Debt 122.8 101.6 211.9 229.0 Long-term Debt 18.9 30.7 23.7 33.3Total Financial Debt 141.7 132.3 235.6 262.3 Shareholders Loans 41.7 56.5 35.2 23.2 Lease Obligations and others 11.5 4.3 6.9 6.6 Contingent Liabilities and Guarantees 45.5 39.0 0.0 0.0Total Adjusted Debt 240.4 232.1 277.7 292.1 Cash and Cash Equivalent 3.2 2.6 1.0 2.9Net Adjusted Debt 237.2 229.5 276.7 289.2 Equity 273.3 244.2 191.1 186.5 Adj. Debt / Adj. Capitalization 88.0 95.0 145.3 156.6 RCF / Total Financial Debt (%) 45.5 48.4 6.3 5.3 RCF / Net Adjusted Debt (%) 27.2 27.9 5.4 4.9 Free Funds / Net Adjusted Debt (%) 34.0 39.5 6.1 10.1

Improvement in the Company’s Credit Metrics Although net adjusted debt in 1H05, has decreased slightly, it remained far below FY03 levels. Meanwhile, the company’s credit metric is considered healthy as it continued to show an upward trend, mainly due to the improvement in the retained cash flow figures. Nonetheless, we believe that there is a clear tenor mismatch in the company's debt structure, given that most of its initial investment cost and expansion plans were financed through short term debt. As of June 2005, the short term facilities account for approximately 85% of the total debt. Furthermore, as of June 2005, Amoun has access to additional credit facilities equivalent to approximately EGP 61mn sourced from nine local banks.

Proposed Bond Amoun; intends to issue an EGP 150mn, seven-year bond with two year grace period. The issue will be non-convertible and callable starting the beginning of the second year. A prepayment penalty of 1.5% will be applicable for exercising this option in the third year and 1% in the third year. The bond is planned to replace all of the outstanding medium and short term loans and to release all security that was mortgaged to lenders. The issue will be guaranteed by all the tangible assets of the factory located in Al -Obour City. The planned bond issue, in our view, will have a positive impact on both the debt structure and cash generative ability. With regard to the debt profile, it is anticipated to bring the short tern debt to long-term debt ratio to less than 20%.

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Rating Outlook The fundamental factor supporting the positive outlook is significant improvement in the company’s business and financial profile. What Could Change the Rating - UP Amoun rating may undergo an upgrade in case the company continued reporting growth in sales and profits and success in export markets. What Could Change the Rating - DOWN Inability to maintain the existing market position, in addition to further challenges from the regulatory bodies, which could execute more pressure on Amoun’s business operation. On the other hand, any future depreciation of the local currency, could adversely affect the company’s business operation and consequently put more pressure on its financial performance.

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Annex 1: Amoun Pharmaceutical Company (Amoun) Summary Financial Results

(EGP mn) 30/6/2005 31/12/ 2004 31/12/2003 31/12/2002 31/12/2001

Income Statement Turnover 201.7 322.67 258.6 240.9 213.2 Growth Profit Margin (%) 36.0 28.0 23.0 26.0 30.0 EBITDA 72.2 90.7 58.4 62.7 63.0 EBIT 67.1 79.7 47.4 51.3 19.5 Interest Incurred 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Income 59.5 53.0 3.9 2.7 (31.7) Balance Sheet Cash and Equivalents 3.2 2.6 1.0 2.9 6.4 Total Assets 523.5 477.2 502.2 509.4 514.3 Short-Term Debt 90.6 66.9 176.4 195.8 190.5 CPLTD 32.2 34.6 35.5 33.2 34.3 Medium-Term Debt 17.1 25.5 17.0 33.3 22.2 Long-Term Debt 1.9 5.2 6.6 0.0 15.1 Leasehold Improvement (short/Long) 9.5 1.5 2.8 1.4 0.0 Others 2.0 2.8 4.1 5.2 5.1 Total Liabilities 153.3 136.5 242.4 268.9 267.2 Shareholder Current Account 41.7 56.5 35.2 23.2 19.4 Common Equity 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 Net Worth 273.26 244.2 191.1 186.5 183.8 Cash Flow Cash Flow from Operations (CFO)1 18.3 99.4 35.1 20.7 -22.3 Funds From Operation (FFO)2 79.4 97.6 19.1 31.6 20.7 Capital Expenditures (5.4) (13.1) (11.8) (22.2) (23.9) Acq. & Divest., Net 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Financing Cost (12.4) (26.7) (46.0) (48.8) (47.3) Equity Raised 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividends (9.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Profitability Ratios Return on Assets (%) 22.7 10.8 0.8 0.5 -6.4 Return on Equity (%) 43.5 24.4 2.1 1.5 (15.9) EBITDA Margin (%) 35.9 28.1 22.6 26.0 29.5 Net Profit Margin (%) 29.5 16.4 1.5 1.1 (14.9) Liquidity Ratio N. Receivables/ Revenue (%) 74.0 42.0 61.0 63.0 73.0 Receivables Days on Hand 134.9 172.7 190.4 240.7 259.7 Cash & C. Equivalent/Total Assets (%) 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.6 1.2 Cash & C. Equivalent/C. Liabilities (%) 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 Coverage Ratios EBITDA/Interest Expense (x) 5.8 3.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 Net Adjusted Debt/Equity (%) 56.0 56. 126.9 144.2 145.0 Net Liabilities/T. Equity (%) 55.0 55.8 126.0 143.1 142.0 Bank Debts/EBITDA 2.0 1.5 4.0 4.2 4.2