Amity International School, Pushp Vihar

Intra-School Model United Nations 2015

5TH Conference,

25-26 August 2015

United Nations Development Programme

Background Guide

Agenda: Post Conflict Development in the MENA Region

Letter from the Executive Board

Dear Delegates,

|| Problems cannot be solved at the same level of awareness that created them ‖ It is our proud privilege to present to you the background guide for one of the most awaited MUNs. Some of you might have already experienced a Model UN conference, be it in ISMUN only, or inter school, but there are many, who will be stepping into the shoes of an international diplomat for the first time. Let me remind you all that when you enter the conference hall as a delegate, you are not merely one person; you represent the interests of the entire population of your respective nation.

I hope we will be able to give you an experience that you will remember dearly, and will encourage you to take an interest in world affairs, debating, and logical analysis like it encouraged us when we (the executive board) first became delegates. The world today faces a cornucopia of problems and a plethora of questions, to answer which we must go beyond the ordinary. While conflict is ongoing, the provision of humanitarian assistance—basic food, shelter and medical services—is a priority for both national and international actors. The greatest challenge that institutions and organizations face today is of financing these projects to rehabilitate the victims and restore peace and prosperity. Evidently, funds and finances act as the essential driving force which helps us bring these projects to life and ensure the fruition of our efforts.

Please keep in mind that this study guide is not an exhaustive document but a mere stepping-stone for further research. Needless to say, please feel free to reach out to us in any way possible in case of a query. We would like to bring your attention towards the importance of debate and deliberation that happens in a committee like the UNDP through this background guide and remind you that one of the most important traits a delegate in such a big and fast tracked committee must possess is patience and above all a fast hand and legible handwriting (after all, you want us to understand what you write in your chits, don’t you?). Our request to you would be to be extremely well researched, accommodating and humble. Research does not have any substitute in a MUN, just like knowledge in real life. However, delegates, do remember that research is one part of an MUN. Your lobbying and diplomatic courtesy is equally important and will play big roles in deciding your award. In a committee such as the UNDP, specially with the agenda we have at hand, pre-conference lobbying and discussing ideas with each other will be really helpful in guiding debate throughout the two days without wasting time due to failed motions. We suggest that you make good use of the lobbying group, as communicating with all delegates may be an uphill task otherwise. Delegates, please do keep in mind that we’ve put a lot of thought into making this background guide, and to make all the concepts and scenarios very clear for the understanding of the delegates. However, there may be instances where you do not understand a few things. In that case, we strongly urge you to come up to any of us and clear your doubt as soon as possible, without any hesitation, because the our main aim is to provide an enjoyable experience to you, and to simulate a committee where you don’t walk

in just to win, but also to learn. While researching, keep questioning yourself about everything you read, try to analyse why something is happening, what are its consequences, who is being affected, how long is this thing going to last, what can be its implications in the future, how could the situation have been avoided or how can I link this situation to a situation from the past and find a solution etc. Just let your thoughts flow and keep thinking, think in terms of cause and effects, relate it to conflict scenarios, and try to find solutions in terms of post conflict development. This however is just one suggestion the EB’s side as an example, and the delegates may choose an entirely different path to follow in committee, which may be much better than this.

We sincerely hope you all have a wonderful learning experience and that your hard work always pays off. Do remember, the ultimate aim of an MUN is to learn, and if you learn stuff from this MUN and specifically this committee, consider that you won an award, irrespective of your performance in committee (though winning in committee will be great too, who doesn’t like a double treat!). Good luck to all of you and may the best emerge victorious.

* Please note that nothing mentioned in this background may be used as established fact in committee without the presentation of a credible news source and substance mentioned henceforth may act only as a source for your basic understanding of the agenda. * The links of the documents where the background guide has been derived have been mentioned at the end of sub paragraphs; please feel free to go through them. *Only mention complex legal terminology if you have proper understanding of it and don’t expect the council to be self aware of what you mention, in a committee such as this, any and all theories and analysis will be welcome.

Shine on your crazy diamonds, may the odds be in your favour

Regards,

Arsh Verma Simran Arora Nikkhil Kalia Chairperson Vice Chairperson Vice Chairperson

Evidence or proof is acceptable from sources:

1. News Sources:

a. REUTERS – Any Reuters article which clearly makes mention of the fact or is in

contradiction of the fact being stated by a delegate in council. (http://www.reuters.com)

(Also please note, that reuters may or may not be accepted by other member nations)

b. State operated News Agencies – These reports can be used in the support of or against the State that owns the News Agency. These reports, if credible or substantial enough, can be used in support of or against any Country as such but in that situation, they can be denied by any other country in the council. Some examples are,

i. RIA Novosti (Russia) http://en.rian.ru/

ii.IRNA (Iran) http://www.irna.ir/ENIndex.htm

iii.BBC (United Kingdom) http://www.bbc.co.uk/

Iv. Xinhua News Agency and CCTV (P.R. China) http://cctvnews.cntv.cn/

2. Government Reports: These reports can be used in a similar way as the State Operated News Agencies reports and can, in all circumstances, be denied by another country. However, a nuance is that a report that is being denied by a certain country can still be accepted by the Executive Board as credible information. Examples are,

i. Government Websites like the State Department of the United States of America (http://www.state.gov/index.htm) or the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation

(http://www.eng.mil.ru/en/index.htm)

ii. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of various nations.

iii. Permanent Representatives to the United Nations http://www.un.org/en/members/

iv. Multilateral Organizations like the NATO (http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/index.htm), ASEAN (http://www.aseansec.org/), OPEC (http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/), etc.

3. UN Reports: All UN Reports are considered are credible information or evidence for the Executive Board of the UNDP.

i. UN Bodies: Like the SC (http://www.un.org/Docs/sc/), GA (http://www.un.org/en/ga/), HRC (http://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/Pages/HRCIndex.aspx) etc.

ii. UN Affiliated bodies like the International Atomic Energy Agency (http://www.iaea.org/),

World Bank (http://www.worldbank.org/), International Monetary Fund

(http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm), International Committee of the Red Cross

(http://www.icrc.org/eng/index.jsp), etc.

iii. Treaty Based Bodies like the Antarctic Treaty System (http://www.ats.aq/e/ats.htm), the International Criminal Court (http://www.icc- cpi.int/Menus/ICC)

Under no circumstances will sources like Wikipedia (http://www.wikipedia.org/), Amnesty International (http://www.amnesty.org/), Human Rights Watch (http://www.hrw.org/) or newspapers like the Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/), Times of India (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/), etc. be accepted.

ABOUT THE COMMITTEE

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is an organization the United Nations created to improve cooperation and interaction between the various stakeholders in development. UNDP has been working with numerous partners on developing the Sustainable Development Goals to replace the Millennium Development Goals after their expiration in 2015. The UNDP’s primary focus is on MDGs as they provide a direct aim to improve and develop countries and, thus, our world. At the time of their establishment in 2000, the limit for MDG achievement was 15 years; a goal that is coming to a close with the quickly approaching year of 2015. With this limit in the near future, the UNDP is the head committee that focuses on the Post-2015 Development Agenda. The Secretary-General of the United Nations (hereafter referred to as the UN), Mr. Ban Ki-Moon, organized a panel in 2012 to set new goals for the UNDP. These new goals coordinate with the previous MDG’s progress. The goals, as reported by the panel, are fewer in number and designate more punctual objectives regarding development and human rights.

The UNDP is an organization that combats the causes of poverty, underdevelopment, and as well as the current hardships of LDCs. In addition, the UNDP is providing assistance in creating a cleaner environment as well as reaching out to encourage the use of sustainable energy resources. While finding solutions to the many issues the UNDP faces, the committee keeps in mind the importance of protecting human rights, empowering women, and long-term capacity development. 2 To accomplish the goals set upon it, the efforts made by other UN organizations in addition to international financial institutions, private foundations, and national governments are often relied upon to help fund or even operate the strategies dictated by the committee. Several example bodies that have supported the UNDP’s initiatives include: UN-HABITAT, UNHCR, UNICEF, World Bank, IMF, and Global Fund to Fight AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria. These organizations often create the solutions due to their plethora of resources and the specialized attention to specific MDGs.

Your work as a delegate of this committee should focus on adopting resolutions that address the needs of each topic as presented in the Background Guide. We hope to see each delegate work diligently and cooperatively to find creative solutions not only during the conference, but also in your position papers.

INTRODUCTION

What prevents a people from utilizing optimally the resources available to them? Simple, above all other issues, conflict both external and internal is considered a primary detriment to progress. The Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA) is a veritable treasure trove of resources, both material and human. As many recent studies point out, this region boasts of some of the highest youth populations on the planet, yet increasingly due to perpetuated and persistent conflict most youth are turning to war or war based activities. It is an economic powerhouse in waiting that has, for long, not been able to realize its true potential.

Its past, however, has been checkered by the unpleasant ramifications of geo-political instability stemming out of such factors as domestic sectarian and ethnic differences; and international terrorism. Barring a handful of countries, most nations in the regions find themselves fighting one source of instability or the other. Many such sources of instability pose existential threats to the existence of nations that currently spread across large swathes of land in the region. The rise of the Islamic State (IS) over the summer of 2014, which crippled the region is only one such example. The Syrian civil war that caused scores of casualties every week had eroded the authority of the Syrian government in various regions. Many Syrians cannot live in their homeland and have been forcefully evicted, while others still continue to live in abject poverty, fear and dispair. The situation is so complex, puzzling and emotionally charged that it is well-nigh impossible to get an objective viewpoint - it is difficult to find historical sources with no 'axes to grind', commentators who could be accepted as truly impartial. Nevertheless each delegate must to unravel the mystery, sweep away the web of confusion, set their course for the heart of the matter and try to make sense of it all. If the local regional effects of these crises are not scary enough, their international spillover effects make their existence even more dreadful. Apart from obvious security concerns, the socioeconomic spillovers of these crises pose potential dangers that can freeze the global economy into inactivity. These include but are not limited to maritime piracy, oil supply shocks and reduction in economic activity due to terror threats. Under the circumstances, it is incumbent upon the United Nations and its allied organizations to constantly review the situation on the ground and while trying to mend broken politico-legal systems through long-term negotiations, also pre-empt socioeconomic spillovers and work towards mitigating them. The Committee is expected to discuss the causes, symptoms and effects of these spillovers. Using sound political and socio-economic judgment, the Committee is also expected to come up with solutions that are both effective and practical.

The weight of this conflict is borne not just by the Middle East, but by the world at large. The loosely termed spill-over effect is disastrous. This is an obvious and quite evident assessment; one only needs to look at the strategic importance of the region to know the extent of the problem. This guide cannot possibly look into all of these and the nature of the inquiry is best left to the delegate’s discretion. However, Delegates of the UNDP must make at least a basic attempt to tie up these effects

with their national interest. A few of these issues will be detailed in this and the upcoming sections.

MENA’S UNIQUE GEO-STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE

For a variety of reasons, the MENA region occupies a geography that is unique and critical. Apart from being the world’s major oil supplier (although other challengers have emerged), waters around the Middle East are the major trade routes that connect the East and the West. Add to that the fact that most nations across the Middle East are relatively young with their median age in the 20-30 year bracket. Considering the above, we review in the following few paragraphs, the potential sources of spillovers from this region that may have global ramifications. Oil supplies from the Middle East fuel growth across emerging economies (India and China, for instance) as well as advanced economies of Europe and the rest of Asia. It is well-documented that oil price shocks arising out of economic and/or geo-political risks have a debilitating impact on the global economy. The following figure shows how geo-political events across the Middle East have impacted international oil prices over the years.

Figure-1 Source: WTRG Economics

For this sample analysis, we’ll consider oil- a vital resource of the 21st century and the effects of conflict on the region. It is a well-established and documented fact that conflict affects market prices of oil and leads to price shock. This price shock is what constitutes the primary spill over effect that has debilitating consequences for the global economy. The 1970s is a case in point with the Iranian revolution and the Yom Kippur war in Israel, which lead to massive socio-economic unrest in the entire region. Tangibly, oil prices shot to a high that crippled growth in developing countries like India, Brazil and South Africa and others. Moving forward the clock, the Libyan crisis in 2011 created speculation.

Interestingly, on a number of occasions, it may not be an actual reduction in the volume of oil supplied from supplier nations, but the mere speculation that oil supply cuts will happen in the medium-term horizon that push up prices. Speculation leads to negative market impact. In short, the negative market impact can be ascertained from investor confidence. This is where the idea of speculation becomes detrimental to growth. In 2011 with the entire uprising against Gaddafi, many economists predicted that there would be an acute oil shortage. These predictions were enough to rabbit investor confidence leading to an upward spiralling of prices that again had a severe impact on growth and currency exchange rates. Intriguing, how mere speculation could cause so much turmoil and upheaval. But recent history has shown us that the market is easily spooked and takes a long time to recover. Very recently, in the summer of 2014, oil prices started rising once the ISIS started enlarging

its area of influence across Iraq, which is currently the second largest oil producer among

the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and is expected to account

for 60% of OPEC’s oil production growth until 2019.

However, once it became apparent that the ISIS will not be able to make any major headway

into the major oil-producing regions of southern Iraq, prices returned to normalcy, and are

currently touching 5-year lows owing to over-supply and subdued global demand.

Nevertheless, there is ample literature that illustrates the negative impacts of high fuel

prices. These take the form of but are not limited to lower consumption and lower

investments due to higher prices. These factors contribute to lower Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) and affect global economic growth negatively. In addition, higher fuel prices are

socially regressive, for they tend to hit the poorest of the poor by making basic necessities of

life, viz. food and transportation more expensive.

Emerging economies -which are unable to bear the fiscal burden of high subsidies-are

forced to pass on these elevated prices to the poorer sections of their economies, thus

fuelling socio-economic unrest. Yet another threat that an unstable MENA region poses is

that of maritime piracy. A politically unstable Somalia has already proven to the world that

maritime piracy around the oil-rich region can choke global trade. If instability in the Middle

East furthers piracy, sea lanes may not be able to facilitate the all-important oil trade that

they currently do. Yet again, this will lead to higher economic price of fuel, and hurt the

poorest sections of the global population through its socially regressive effects.

MENA AS BREEDING GROUND FOR FUTURE TURMOIL?

Fortunately or unfortunately, countries across the MENA region are home to relatively young

populations. The following table illustrates the same.

Country Median Age (Years)

Egypt 25.1

Iraq 21.5

Iran 28.3

Libya 27.5

Syria 23.3

Yemen 18.6

Japan 46.1

Germany 46.1

USA 37.6

UK 40.4

France 40.9

China 36.7

South Korea 40.2

India 27

South Africa 25.7

Kenya 19.1

Nigeria 18.2

Pakistan 22.6

Brazil 30.7

Table-1 Source: CIA- The World Factbook

Compared to developed economies from the West, countries from the MENA region have much lower median ages. Interestingly, the median age of populations across these MENA countries are similar to those of more successful emerging economies such as India, Brazil and South Africa. As per the World Bank (2013), the MENA region is home to more than 40 million people. A combination of huge young populations combined with political instability and constant security threats may become just the perfect breeding ground for future terrorism. In fact, the ISIS is a good case in point and so is the civil war in Syria. Taking advantage of the Syrian political fallout, notorious elements from across the world have joined the messy civil war against the Asad regime. The victims of this deplorable situation are the common civilians, who are stuck between the devil and the deep sea. The creation of the ISIS was, in fact, partly attributable to these elements fighting in Iraq’s neighborhood. Young nations (in terms of populations’ age) like Brazil, India and South Africa are more popular for their economic clout. These nations have tried to fully tap into the demographic dividend that a favorable configuration of their populations has provided them with. The MENA region, on the other hand, can easily turn into a classic counter-example with large masses of youth devoid of adequate economic opportunities getting embroiled in prolonged conflicts along religious and sectarian lines. As a result, they will have limited options, i.e. fleeing their countries or becoming a part of the conflict. For long, we have been witnessing unpleasant ramifications of geo-political events of the MENA region across the world. A large pool of hapless youth stranded in the middle of tense conflicts may well be left with the only option of turning into future flag-bearers of such fundamentalist armed struggles across the world, making international commerce even more fragile and susceptible to security threats.

MIGRATION FROM MENA COUNTRIES INTO NEIGHBORING NATIONS

As the example of the Syrian Civil War suggests, international migration of war-affected civilians can cause socio-economic tensions in neighbouring nations. An estimated 9 million Syrians have fled their homes since the outbreak of civil war in March 2011, taking refuge in neighbouring countries or within Syria itself. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), over 3 million have fled to Syria's immediate neighbours Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq. 6.5 million civilians are internally displaced within Syria. Meanwhile, under 150,000 Syrians have declared asylum in the European Union, while member states have pledged to resettle a further 33,000 Syrians. The vast majority of these resettlement spots – 28,500 or 85% – are pledged by Germany. Increasingly, the socio-economic infrastructure’s absorption across these host countries is being tested. In a July 2014 report titled “The Impact of Syria’s Refugees on Southern Turkey” authored by Soner Cagaptay and Bilge Menekse at the Washington Institute, the authors note the severity of this influx of Syrians by stating that “All told, and accounting for unregistered refugees, Turkey can expect to permanently host about a million Syrian refugees. Integrating these arrivals poses challenges at a scale not seen in Turkey's modern history, calling for analysis of cultural, social, and economic implications.” They add that the cost of relief efforts aimed at Syrian refugees in Turkey had reached USD 4 billion by early

2014. In another essay written for The Turkey Analyst, Jesper Akesson writes, “The regions of Turkey that border Syria need external support, both from the Turkish government and from the international community, as these parts of the country have come to bear a disproportionally large burden of the refugees fleeing Syria. Public services need to be expanded and ways need to be found to stimulate the local economy. Ultimately, the Syrian civil war will continue to negatively affect Turkey until its resolution – but measures can and should be taken to alleviate the pressure on those hardest hit by this crisis, lest tensions grow further among locals and refugees in Turkey.” Cagaptay and Menekse also allude to ethnic dynamics that might result from this intermingling of Syrians and the Turkish native population, and cause ethnic tensions, thus impeding socio-economic growth in a country that is being touted as a fast-growing economic force on the global scene.

IMF’S ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL SPILLOVERS IN THE MIDDLE-EAST

Before reading about this topic, we must understand what exactly spillover refers to. By

definition, “A secondary effect that follows from a primary effect, and may be far removed in

time or place from the event that caused the primary effect.” Basically, spillover effect is the

tendency of something to cause other things around it to behave or happen in a particular

way. In other words, a spillover effect is a side effect arising from or as if from an

unpredicted source. For example, the economic benefits of increased trade are the spillover

effects anticipated in the formation of multilateral alliances of many of the regional nation

states: e.g. SARC (South Asian Regional Cooperation), ASEAN (Association of South East

Asian Nations).

The following schematic diagram has been proposed to suggest how conflict-struck

countries create negative externalities for neighbouring nations’ socio-economic growth.

Figure-2 Source: International Monetary Fund

There are a few examples to strengthen the above proposition. Jordan, for instance, suffered in 2002, in spite of its strong domestic growth. This was primarily a result of investors’

reluctance in the face of intensified conflict in Gaza and the West Bank; and the impending war on Iraq. Similarly, the Syrian currency’s exchange rate witnessed volatility during mid-2002 due to these geo-political uncertainties. Similarly, in the aftermath of the 2003 war in Iraq, refugee influx into Syria created economic impediments. The large number of refugees had a significant negative effect on Syria, particularly on the infrastructure, inflation, property prices and rentals, as well as services, including education, health, and water, leading to a higher fiscal cost. All this exacerbated the macroeconomic situation in Syria in 2003 in the immediate aftermath of the war in Iraq. Real GDP contracted by about 2 percent in 2003, from a growth of about 6 percent in 2002, due in part to the negative impact of the conflict in Iraq on exports and investment. Inflation rose to close to 6 percent mainly due to the euro appreciation, along with increases in administered prices, shortages of agricultural goods during the war in Iraq, and increasingly expansionary fiscal policy. The external current account posted a large deficit of about 8 percent of GDP in 2003 because of the large drop in exports, reflecting the disruption in trade with Iraq. Interestingly, in the aftermath of the 1990 Gulf War, Jordan witnessed positive spillovers as Jordanian migrants returned from neighbouring Gulf countries due to heightened tensions. This inward movement fuelled a boom in the construction industry. However, this pleasant surprise qualifies better as an exception for the very recent phenomenon of the rise of the ISIS has led to reduced trade between Jordan and Iraq, thus hurting the former’s economy. In an August 2014 report, Al-Jazeera stated that “Iraq previously imported 20 percent of Jordan's total exports, and in 2013, exports from Jordan to Iraq totaled approximately $1.25bn...Although trade first declined between Jordan and Iraq after fighting erupted between Iraqi government forces and Sunni tribes in Anbar province in December 2013, the situation has worsened since armed groups seized the Iraqi border crossing with Jordan in June, leading to a ‘partial’ closure of the border.”

Understanding Conflict Resolution and Post Conflict Development

There can be no unitary approach to conflict and much less to conflict resolution. It is the dynamic and ever changing nature of a conflict situation that make theorizing and predictive modelling useless. This is a step by step process distilled from many textbooks of Conflict Studies and is representative of the Threat/Benefit Matrix approach followed by many international bodies and respected organisations. Delegates are requested to adhere to the steps in order to better assist debate. Please revise these at least once before the conference. STEP 1: IDENTIFICATION OF PARTICIPANTS The most crucial step is to determine who the stakeholders are in any given conflict; however, doing this is not as easy as it looks particularly in the MENA region. The overlap of cultures and traditions leads to the phenomenon of intra-diversification and the creation of minority groups. What data you use, depends on your measures of assessment. For example, one of the broadest categories delineates participants in conflict as combatants and non-combatants which is solely based on their relation to armed conflict and warfare. Regardless of the measure used, there must be absolute clarity in the identification of the participants if one is to move forward down the chain. Also data must be uniquely and reliably compiled for each category or type cast. For example, Jewish Men and Women may constitute different type casts in a study of gender based violence in conflict but may not be differentiated in a paper studying general communal unrest. STEP 2: HISTORICAL TRAJECTORY AND GOAL. A lot of negotiation theory is aimed at gaining clarity in generating a vision for a conflict ridden state. It has been noted that a lot of negotiations failed due to the incorrect reading of the historical trends that inform a particular situation. This step is oft overlooked and tends to

be the vital missing link. In any particular analysis of a conflict mediation process, the parties moderating must come to terms with the causes behind the conflict. This includes a complete timeline of events as well as different yardsticks to assess potential escalations of tensions and hence conflict. What this means is simply that each delegate must chart out for himself/herself the exact nature and evolution of the conflict. It is here that political orientation manifests itself and your bloc position reflects in the selectivity and objectivity you choose to create a story of the conflict. After this is done, as the delegate you must define a goal for the resolution of the process. The goal is mapped out in temporal terms i.e. there is a long term goal and there is a short term goal. What these are is again defined by your current political orientation and status in the world. STEP 3: OPTIMIZATION What is the shortest path from conflict stage to a peace stage? The path is reflective usually of the challenges faced by the particular region and it is defined by both social and economic constraints. This step involves deal making and breaking. Basically, delegates must understand in a holistic manner the limitations faced by the parties immersed in conflict and then chart a roadmap for post conflict development.

TACKLING THE SPILLOVERS AND MOVING TOWARDS DEVELOPMENT

In the above sections, we note the existing and potential spillovers of the ongoing tension in the MENA region. As a response towards containing the negative impacts of these spillovers in the region and globally, there is need for coordinated effort from the global community. The following are only a few such suggestions that may be considered as potential strategies to achieve these objectives, and yet they may not qualify as win-win situations.

Diversification of Energy Supply- Energy importing nations may diversify their portfolio of crude oil suppliers and reduce their reliance on the MENA region. Oil prices have plummeted to 5-year lows owing to increased global production, with oil production in the USA being termed as the new game-changer. This measure will reduce chances of a “global energy shutdown” and also reduce the potential for maritime piracy affecting the transportation of oil tankers. However, will such a solution be acceptable to the MENA countries? Suffering from socio-political uncertainty, the last thing they will want is a reduction in their revenue streams from oil importing nations.

New Trade Routes- At both the regional and global level, efforts may be made to ensure that tension in the region does not affect trade. If a border with a neighbouring besieged nation within the MENA region is shut, alternative transport routes should be explored. Nations in the vicinity that may be able to provide free passage into open border areas of the besieged country should step forward. However, this may not be the most economically feasible solution for transportation costs may rise substantially. Should the UN and other multilateral organizations step in to compensate for the same?

Preparation of Contingency Plans- Neighbouring nations and other economies tied to the MENA region may prepare contingency plans in order to fight crises. Using sophisticated scenario programming, they may conduct stress tests to check how their economies will behave if certain plausible (and unpleasant) scenarios come true. Their respective Governments will then be in a much better position to respond to crises. Countries that are currently running current account deficits and are

importers of crude oil, for instance, may discover that a sudden breakdown of Iraq or Syria may lead to a sharp spike in oil prices, further damaging its current account. This will also adversely affect its currency. Such an economy should, thus, be ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market to smoothen out unwarranted volatility. Similarly, a neighbouring economy may experience massive influx of young population with no prospects of returning to their besieged nation. This might create disequilibrium in the local job markets (mainly unskilled). The Government may respond by incentivizing private entities that employ such refugees or by absorbing them within the Government machinery. The question, however, remains: who should conduct these tests? Should there be a homogenous framework for these tests?

Humanitarian Aid in order to stop civilians from joining conflict- Absence of basic necessities such as food, water, medicine and clothing may push youth that are stranded in these conflicts into becoming a part of them. Perhaps the international community can prevent some damage by providing these basic supplies, and propagating the idea that taking up arms will be no solution.

Sustained Processes to end the tension- All the aforementioned stop-gap arrangements will only be able to contain situations and not resolve them. In order to ensure that MENA does not become the hotbed of global security threats, there is need for sustained processes to end the conflicts. While the Committee’s mandate does not extend into this domain, this may be achieved by a combination of military and diplomatic tactics.

Human Rights

While we talk of so many connotations to post conflict development, we might ask

ourselves, “Why Human rights? Aren’t other things like ensuring macroeconomic

safety more important?”

Prudence might say so; however, the simple reason why we need to discuss about

human rights is because humans form the society and the society is the very

essence of the existence of the country. Thus the nation’s very existence is linked to

humans which are an important resource for any state. Ensuring these resources

have certain rights will contribute to fastening of the development of a nation due to a

better output of these necessary resources.

A nation progresses when people enjoy a better standard of living. An intact

framework for rights ensures that the standard of living is maintained at a desired

level. Article 1 of the’ Universal Declaration on Human rights’ states that “all human beings

are born free and equal in dignity and rights. They are endowed with reason and

conscience and should act towards one another in a spirit of brotherhood.”

The ending of overt violence via a peace agreement or military victory does not

mean the achievement of peace. Rather, the ending of violence or a so-called ‘post-

conflict’ situation provides “a new set of opportunities that can be grasped or thrown

away”. The international community can play a significant role in either nurturing or

undermining this fragile peace building process. The United Nations, individual

states and international nongovernment organizations (INGOs), have become

increasingly involved in trying to rebuild peaceful societies in the aftermath of violent

conflict.

Most conflicts bring with themselves, grave violation of human rights. It becomes

important to ensure that people’s rights are protected post conflict where the

atmosphere is filled with ambiguity about the future, social insecurity, political

instability, environmental unsustainability and economic uncertainty. Human rights

and fundamental freedoms of millions of people around the world are affected in

different ways by conflict, as well as during the stages of recovery, relief and

rehabilitation.

Justice and order are important aspects of peace building in a post-conflict situation

where there is a need to end violence, disarm combatants, restore the rule of law,

and deal with the perpetrators of war crimes and other human rights abuses.

Rights are wide ranging and each situation may call for the protection of different

human rights; however, the most common ones that need to be protected and

promoted are as follows:-

1. Right to life, liberty and security of a person.

2. Right to be protected against slavery.

3. Right to be protected against torture, cruel or degrading treatment.

4. Right to freedom of expression, movement and peaceful assembly and

association.

5. Right to social security.

6. Right to education and health.

7. Right to be protected against enforced disappearances.

8. Right to elect one’s representatives or other political rights like the right to

vote.

9. Right to effective remedy and fair hearing.

Reconstruction efforts must be in compliance with principles of humanity, impartiality,

neutrality and independence. Some scholars argue that peace consolidation process

in post-conflict regions, international efforts should be attuned to the will of the

country concerned and the way of development chosen by the people of the country

concerned should be respected. Countries develop certain short term plans to

promote and protect human rights. In addition to short-term programmes, there

should be a sustained effort to support medium- and long-term programmes as well,

such as the strengthening of national institutions, monitoring elections, the protection

of human rights and good governance.

Sometimes, agents of the state might not act in the interest of the people. For

example, human rights violations may be perpetrated by police forces. In other

cases, violations may be committed by non- state actors .In such a situation, the

state must efficiently work with the human rights institutions of the country, spreading

awareness and strengthening the rule of law and justice. A special emphasis has to

be put on certain ‘vulnerable’ people who are likely to be affected more than others

in case of human rights violations. All in all, a state must develop a clear framework

for the upliftment of human rights after its people have suffered from the effects of

conflict.

Glossary

Enforced Disappearances- It broadly refers to the involuntary disappearance of a

person perpetrated by the state or non-state actors. Enforced disappearances, when

conducted in an order and in a systematic manner are considered to be a crime

against humanity.

State- a nation or territory considered as an organized political community under one

government.

State actor - someone acting on the behalf of the government. Example, police, military

forces etc.

None state actor- someone not acting on the behalf of the government. Example, a private

organization or group.

ENVIRONMENT

The scourge of war not only threatens humanity, it also threatens our environment. It threatens the habitats of the living beings involved. It isn’t just trees and animals, the land and the water of the area become poisoned in the process and prevent the area from being productive for a very long time. The chemicals and heavy metals released make the earth fallow, the water becomes undrinkable, the conflict itself destroys vegetation, and if it doesn’t kill animals, it destroys the habitats they live in, habitats that human beings also exist within. It is easy to imagine that unstable environments would lead to a struggle for resources, which would ultimately lead to conflict. Preventing this is simple and often discussed. Environmental sustainability is discussed in many forums and through various lenses. The difficult part is when conflict leads to environmental damage. In economic terms, the opportunity cost of neglecting environmental protection in a (post) conflict setting is far too great to afford. In post conflict scenarios when there is a breakdown of governance and a scramble for emergency use of resources, it is difficult and almost inhumane to implement environmentally sustainable models. However if it is not done, the short run may be taken care of but in the long run, the pressure on the environment, and the lack of a strong administrative structure may actually cause the region to relapse into conflict.

Thus escalating and prolonging the conflict, thus increasing the cost, making world

peace even more untenable.

The conflict leaves everything involved scarred, and ruined. If victims of the conflict

do ever return home, they would be greeted by a mauled and grotesque version of

what they once considered to be their home.

Environment Post Conflict The first thing that happens post conflict is rehabilitation of refugees. These refugee camps place a lot of pressure on the area they occupy. They require immediate access to food and water, and in regions such as Syria, Sudan, Chad and Tanzania, droughts are not uncommon. Added to that, regions around rivers are also prone to flooding. The environmental cost of refugees further reduces their living standards in the camps. At the height of the refugee crisis in Tanzania in 1994-1996, a total of 570 square kilometers of forest was affected, of which 167 square kilometers was severely deforested. An environmental impact assessment carried out in Zimbabwe in 1994, when Mozambican refugees had returned to their homelands, showed a reduction of 58 per cent in the woodland cover around camps. In 1977, prior to the Soviet invasion and formation of the Taliban, 55% of Badghis and 37% of Takhar were covered in Pistachio woodlands. In a post conflict assessment conducted by the UNEP in 2002, it was noted that the woodlands had been reduced to the point of being undetectable by satellites. The local inhabitants had begun to stockpile the wood in face of the crisis. However, the pistachio was an important source of income and sustenance, amounting to 82.1 million dollars, and by 2003 it had dropped to 41.7 million dollars. The conflict left the country ravaged and without the natural resources necessary for rebuilding the country. This is a little told story that is characteristic of every conflict that occurs today.

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF CONFLICT War does not begin or end at any singular point. It involves costs, all of which are financed from the same pool of resources that form the economic component of sustainability. Resources employed in equipping and training for war, in peacetime are quite simply, resources denied to other sectors. Internationally, between the years 2006–2007 the $239 million budget of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) represents an allocation to such related economic costs from rebuilding the lost infrastructure and productivity. However, War’s environmental cost is much harder to determine than its economic cost. However, the global community has recognized environmental damage as enough of a threat to sustainability to put in force, “a treaty in 1978 prohibiting “Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques.” The treaty covers only events “encompassing an area on the scale of several hundred square kilometers,” or, presumably, more. It is not clear what impact this treaty has had, if any, in terms of

accomplishing its aims. The United Nations has declared 6 November of each year as the day to bring attention to environmental exploitation during wars” 2 The linkages between resources and war are ultimately very complex involving a wide range of ideologies politics and personalities to economics and trade. Natural resources have also been recognized as one of the potential drivers of conflict and also their resolve. Financing for environmental sustainability under such diverse circumstances therefore requires analyzing the instigating factor of violent conflict as a causative agent. Primarily, this lies in (i) the “resource curse” or paradox of plenty or (ii) resource

competition under conditions of environmental scarcity, degradation and long-term

change.

1. POST CONFLICT RESOURCE CURSE An abundance of untapped, precious natural resources in an unstable setting is in itself an invite for destruction. Consider the case of oil held in majority by the Arab region. Oil wealth in some countries it has proved an impediment. The curse of oil is a multi-faceted predicament. According to this theory presented by economist Hassan Patrow, “the wind- fall of wealth generated by oil revenues may under- mine good governance by fomenting corruption, adventurism and violent conflict. Furthermore, an economy dominated by oil has a damaging impact on other sectors (particularly agriculture) by squeezing them into the periphery and stifling potentially innovative activities that may have been the best means for technological progress and a more sustainable path to development.” Though wealthy oil nations can overcome such challenges the middle-income oil nations are more likely to make use of their oil wealth for national security through military. These problems are particularly heightened by destruction of the resource after conflict or by bad governance This case may in fact be a direct result of the failure of a government to properly address the institutional and policy challenges that must follow after a war or strife.

2. SCARCITY Conflict in some cases may also stem from environmental scarcity and degradation or resources. This rests on the fundamental argument that, “scarcity can trigger social breakdown and violent conflict the foremost example being the age-old struggle between pastoralists and farmers, religiously symbolized in Cain’s (the farmer) slaying of his brother Abel (the shepherd) In eco-zone terms, this is sometimes referred to as the “desert versus the oasis” syndrome.” In the predominantly semi-arid environment of the Arab world, the most prominent environmental drivers of local conflict are pastoralist and sedentary competition over agricultural and grazing lands and water sources. It is important to note, however, that conflict over these resources is largely limited to specific environmental settings, and is overall linked to conflict in a minority of cases in the Arab world. At one level, scarcity has the potential to generate unprecedented levels of revenues for these countries. But, conversely, this can make countries more vulnerable to the political and economic instability generated by commodity price fluctuations. In addition, increased competition for these resources is in some cases generating resource deals that undermine the transparency and accountability of how resource concessions are allocated (and who allocates them) and of how the benefits of major investments are distributed between investors, national governments and local communities.

This increased competition and demand for natural resources of all kinds is in turn leading to increased conflicts generated by overlapping resource claims between large-scale resource users and local communities. It is also risks generating increases in

illegal use of resources, particularly in the fisheries and forestry sectors (though major

consumer countries are increasingly passing stricter legislation to outlaw illegal timber

imports).

POTENTIAL IN POST CONFLICT SETTINGS Countries emerging from conflict regardless of their cause are ultimately made vulnerable with nearly a quarter of all comprehensive peace agreements failing in the face of a relapse into conflict, and even a higher proportion defined by debilitating crises of governance and high levels of armed violence, including violence again women.

According to the UNDPs report on Capacity Development in Post‐Conflict

Countries, “Research shows that most armed conflicts today end in a process of

peace‐making through negotiated settlement and through these accords

war‐affected states and societies have the chance to undergo complex transitions in

several interrelated areas including but not limited to

Re-establishment of both state security and human and community‐security;

Renewal of the rule of law and the creation of mechanisms of accountability and an end to impunity;

Reforming, recreating, or building of public governance institutions and processes that are able to reconcile social conflict and pursue collective goals of prosperity and development;

The establishment of renewed political settlements supported by processes of

constitutional change or complex power‐sharing frameworks able to garner

legitimacy and support from social forces”

Importantly, a post conflict setting gives a nation battling against or with both scarcity and resource curse to undertake economic recovery measures to generate wider safety nets and reinventing both the management of natural resources and their distribution in the form of natural wealth. A post conflict setting through its widespread destruction itself forms both reason and incentive to fill the gaps in human and infrastructural resources, reforming public administration and focus instead on more modern, more sustainable economic systems. Ultimately, post conflict settings demand capacity development and with a well-designed framework, this capacity can be integrated in the form of a green economic system. The ability to build systems from scratch is the golden opportunity to improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. A Green Economy (GE) is characterized by substantially increased investments in economic sectors that build on and enhance the Earth’s natural capital or reduce ecological scarcities and environmental risks. A GE sets new priorities for macroeconomic policy, with growth being generated by economic sectors that are critical or highly material for greening the global economy. A portfolio of fiscal, regulatory and information-based policy measures will likely be required to promote an effective and fair transition to a GE.

Such a portfolio will need to be carefully coordinated to ensure measures are complementary and neither counteract each other nor generate unintended consequences. The good news is that countries can—and do—escape or avoid the “resource curse”, and assistance with capacity building can help them in this. Capacity building can draw on the widespread practical experience with strengthening institutions, and on the good-practice approaches identified for the specific economic-policy issues. The governance challenges associated with natural resources can be tackled by strengthening accountability mechanisms and enhancing transparency about policies and policy outcomes. Efforts to strengthen country capacities to avoid the “resource curse” can have a huge development pay-off, accelerating progress towards the Millennium Development Goals. Moreover, the beneficial spillovers for the global community could be substantial, as access to natural resources becomes more secure and stable, and more socially responsible. OTHER POINTS FOR CONSIDERATION https://www.law.upenn.edu/journals/jil/articles/volume23/issue4/Huston23U.Pa.J.Int'lEcon.L.899(2002).pdf. (Page 10 onwards has a lot of interesting information on a case study on financing liabilities from environmental damage.) QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER

General and Economic

Considering the current challenges and the potential questions that the conflict in the MENA region may raise, discussion on the following questions will be expected of the committee’s deliberations and the final resolution.

What are the threats that the current conflict poses?

How can they be mitigated? What time horizon may be considered for each threat?

How can socio-economic spillovers be prevented in neighbouring nations and other related countries?

Who should bear the responsibility of the above actions?

What are the various resources that non state organizations in the middle east have access to and how is that threatening or affecting the region and the world at large?

Humanitarian

What are human rights institutions and how can they assist a state in

promoting human rights?

Who are “vulnerable people” and how are they affected more?

How can a state that has recently emerged from conflict and has limited

economical resources, tackle the problem of ensuring that human rights are

not violated?

Can the state take measures to ensure that its agents act in the welfare of

people?

What are the other rights (instead of the aforementioned ones) that need to be

protected?

Is the promotion and protection of human rights connected to the economic

and political development of a nation?

How can a nation, with limited resources, ensure that the rights of refugees

that have crossed over to her land are protected until repatriation?

REFERENCES

Abuquadairi, Areej. Iraq crisis worsens Jordan's economic woes. News Report, AlJazeera, 2014.

Cagaptay, Soner, and Bilge Menekse. The Impact of Syria's Refugees on Southern Turkey. Policy Analysis, The Washington Institute, 2014.

CIA. The World Factbook. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/docs/notesanddefs.html#2177 (accessed January 14, 2015).

Dowd, John. ISIS, Iraq And Oil Prices: What Investors Should Know. Opinion, Forbes, 2014.

Migration Policy Centre at the European University Institute. Syrian Refugees. 2014. http://syrianrefugees.eu/ (accessed January 12, 2015).

Posusney, Marsha Pripstein. Economic Impact of the Crisis in Egypt. Analysis, Middle East Research and Information Project.

Sab, Randa. Economic Impact of Selected Conflicts in the Middle East: What Can We Learn from the Past? . Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, 2014.

The World Bank. Data Indicators. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator (accessed January 10, 2015).

Environmental

http://www.afedonline.org/afedreport/english/book12.pdf

http://www.environmentmagazine.org/Archives/Back%20Issues/January-February%202008/Bytes-jf08.html

http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/152877/

http://www.insightonconflict.org/2014/07/toxic-footprint-syrias-war/

http://eeas.europa.eu/ifs/publications/articles/book2/book%20vol2_part3_chapter45_environmental%20needs%20in%20post-crisis%20assessments%20and%20recovery_david%20jensen.pdf

http://thewe.cc/contents/more/archive/darfur_sudan.html#this_is_real

http://www.unhcr.org/3b039f3c4.html

http://www.oecd.org/dac/stats/RefugeeCostsMethodologicalNote.pdf

http://www.unhcr.org/pages/49e486a76.html#

http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Sudan.pdf

http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/afghanistanpcajanuary2003.pdf

http://content.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1719234_1543622,00.html

http://postconflict.unep.ch/publications/UNEP_Rwanda.pdf

https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/content/documents/1503nsds-conflict-web.pdf

http://www.iisd.org/sites/default/files/pdf/2008/conserving_peace_albertine_rift.pdf

http://www.iisd.org/sites/default/files/pdf/2009/conflict_peacebuilding.pdf

Here’s looking forward to a rigorous and fruitful

debate. All the very best! (Go over to the next page for information regarding the position paper)

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