© 2015 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Brian Seal

Technical Executive

EPRI ICCS European Engagement

Summit

April 28th, 2015

AMI System

Prognostics and

Health ManagementAdvanced Metering 161F

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• Recent irreversible industry shift from electro-

mechanical to solid-state electricity meters

• Significantly shorter and less-known wear-out

characteristics, all meters the same age

• AMI is a major investment, major dependency,

with a multi-year process to plan, implement

system replacement

EPRI Project Goal

• Develop a best-practice guide to AMI system

prognostics and health management

Problem Statement

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Present State of the Industry

• All new deployments, no major

problems yet, but no solid data to

establish expectations

• Searching for methods to use to

gauge system health, unsure of best

methods

• Often not differentiating between

system health and system prognosis

• Difficulty in translating measured

parameters into useful metrics

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Wear Out

Failures Early

Failures

Normal Mid-

Life Failures

Failure

Tolerance

End of Life

Based on What

I can Observe

Now How Much Time

Do I Have Left ?

What Do We Mean by “Prognostics?”The Failure Bathtub Curve

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Utility Best

Practices

Manufacturer

RecommendationsOther

Industries

Reliability

Experts

Test and

Refine Standards

Guidebook Development Approach

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Informative content to teach PHM principles

Specific recommended processes for:

– Sampling

– Accelerated Life Testing (ALT)

– Recurring ALT

– Failed device analysis

– Lab / teardown analysis

– Product self-diagnostics

Next Steps

– Continue to develop the specific processes

– Utilities to adopt / implement the defined processes

– Identify / Contribute to SDOs

– Conduct AMI PHM Business Case Workshop

Present Status: AMI Prognostics Guide Content

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0 2 k 4 k 6 k

ALT Hours of Exposure

8 k0 10 k 12 k

New Products Test

Failu

re R

ate

Shift is Proportional to Used Service Life

PHM Example Process – Recurring ALT

Remaining Life

Aged Products Test

Remaining Life 2

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PHM Example

Process

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Processes Represented in Version 1 Draft

New Design ALT

Failure Modes

Watch-List

Field Experience

Vendor Insights

Recurring ALT

Analysis of Field Failures

Sample-Based Lab Assessments

Continuous Self-Monitoring

PHM Analysis

(Algorithms)

Sampling Method

Remaining Service Life Prediction

Process Improvement

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Group Discussion

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Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity