American Public Power Association Pre-Rally Workshop February 28, 2006 Washington, D.C.
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Transcript of American Public Power Association Pre-Rally Workshop February 28, 2006 Washington, D.C.
American Public Power Association
Pre-Rally WorkshopFebruary 28, 2006Washington, D.C.
Climate Change:Making Community-Based Decisions in a Carbon Constrained World
Climate Vision, Power PartnersSM,& GHG Activities for Public Power
presented toAmerican Public Power Association
Climate Change SeminarFebruary 28, 2006
Daniel E. KleinTwenty-First Strategies, LLCMcLean, VA 22101 [email protected]
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What we’ll cover today
Background on U.S. GHG programs
Climate Vision
Power PartnersSM & industry activities
GHG accounting & upcoming activities
What’s a Power PartnerSM to do?
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Technological Carbon Management Options
All options needed to: Maintain economic growth Affordably meet energy demand Address environmental objectives
Improve EnergyEfficiency
Demand SideSupply Side
RenewablesNuclearFuel Switching
Reduce FuelCarbon Intensity
Carbon emissions = $GDP X Btu/$GDP X carbon/Btu – sequestration
SequesterCarbon
Capture & StoreEnhance Natural
Sinks
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Improving GHG intensity is a key component of the U.S. strategy
Over time, improving GHG intensity could:
1. Slow the rate of GHG growth
2. Stabilize GHG emissions
3. Reduce absolute emissions
… depending on the rate of improvement time
emis
sion
s
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Addressing Climate and Energy Securityin the Global Climate Change Initiative
On February 14, 2002, President Bush set a goal to reduce U.S. GHG emissions intensity by 2012
GHG “intensity” will be measured in terms of GHG per unit of GDP
This goal is equivalent to ~500 million metric tons of cumulative carbon equivalent reductions from 2002-2012
“My administration is committed to cuttingour nation’s greenhouse gas intensity... by 18 percent over the next 10 years.”
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GCCI Launched Several Initiatives
Multi-sector voluntary programsTransformational technology RD&D
efforts on renewables, clean energyExpansion of global outreach and
partnershipsSupport for green tradingExploration of innovative policy
instruments
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Climate VISION Program Launch
Climate VISION – Voluntary Innovative Sector Initiatives: Opportunities Now
A part of GCCI, launched February 12, 2003
Part of a continuum of short- mid-, and long-term approaches to address climate change
Nature of problem requires development and use of transformational technologies
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Climate VISION Private-Sector PartnersAlliance of Automobile Mfgrs.
Aluminum Association
American Chemistry Council
American Forest & Paper Association
American Iron & Steel Institute
American Petroleum Institute
Assoc. of American Railroads
The Business Roundtable
Industrial Minerals Assoc. – N. America
International Magnesium Association
National Lime AssociationNational Mining
AssociationPortland Cement
AssociationPower Partners
Semiconductor Industry Association
Each partner has committed to contribute to President’s GHG intensity goal.
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Elements of Voluntary Programs
Commitments Industries make meaningful commitments toward 18% intensity reduction goal and to report emissions and intensities
Inventory Partners develop and use tools to calculate, inventory, and report GHG emission reductions, avoidance, & sequestration
Solutions Partners (industry, government) identify cost-effective GHG reductions for implementation
Technology Companies develop strategies to speed R&D and commercial adoption of advanced technologies
Recognition Government recognizes voluntary mitigation actions
Further reductions
Partners develop strategies across the economy to further reduce GHG emissions
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Climate VISION Website
Announced during COP-9 in December 2003
Provides resources for partners and an avenue to communicate with public on progress
Averaging 10,000+ “hits” per month
www.climatevision.gov
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So … how is the U.S. doing so far? Goal: 18% reduction in GHG intensity, 2002-12
But BAU forecasts show ~14% improvement (~1.3%/year) 18% implies average annual rate of ~1.7%/year From 1990-2003, GHG intensity fell ~1.9%/year
First year: 2003 relative to 2002 (EIA data) GHG emissions increased 1.0 percent But $GDP grew 2.7 percent So, GHG intensity fell 1.7 percent
Second year: 2004 relative to 2003 (prel.) GHG emissions increased ~2.0 percent But $GDP grew ~4.2 percent So, GHG intensity fell ~2.1 percent
2005 shows GDP up ~3.5%; CO2 maybe flat
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Power PartnersPower PartnersSMSM: : Meeting the Challenge
In 2002, electric power sector created Power PartnersSM Voluntary partnership with Federal government Address the President’s voluntary climate initiative Designed to deliver results in short, medium and
long term
Participating in Climate VISION & Climate Leaders Industries/companies commit to reduce GHG
intensityPower sector: Equivalent of 3-5% reduction in
emissions intensity (CO2/MWh) by 2012
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Power PartnersPower PartnersSMSM: : Historical Roots
U.S. electric power sector recognized early on as a world leader in voluntary approaches for reducing, avoiding or sequestering GHG emissions
Power industry came together in the 1990sSuccessfully undertook voluntary climate initiatives
through the Climate Challenge programFirst major industry to do so281 MMT CO2 of reported reductions in 2002.
But … does this reputation for “early action” still hold?
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Power PartnersPower PartnersSMSM Participants
American Public Power Association (APPA) Edison Electric Institute (EEI) Electric Power Supply Association (EPSA) Large Public Power Council (LPPC) National Rural Electric Cooperative
Association (NRECA) Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA)
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Power Sector Goal
Achieve equivalent of 3-5% reduction in GHG intensity by 2012 through credible, verifiable reductions in GHG emissions or offsetsCollaborative, industry-wide initiativesIndividual actions that best suit company capabilities,
resources and business strategiesCross-sector programs and outreach
Signed Umbrella MOU with DOEDecember 13, 2004Highlights roles of partners in achieving voluntary
reductions
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Power Industry Initiatives - UpdatePower Industry Initiatives - UpdatePowerTree Carbon Co. – New reforestation
effortSponsored by 25 U.S. power generatorsCommitted over $3 million for up to six projects – will
remove and store over 1.5 million tons of CO2
Program formally announced last year
C2P2 – Coal Combustion Products PartnershipIncrease CCP use from approx. 14 million tons to 20
million tons of CO2 annually by 2010Increase utilization rate from current 32% to 45% by
200840+ utilities have become C2P2 “Champions”
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Power Industry Initiatives - UpdatePower Industry Initiatives - Update
IPP – International Power Partnerships programWork with DOE and State Dept. to identify GHG reduction
opportunities overseas Promote use of renewable energy and clean coal
technologiesOther Efforts
Pilot-Scale Test Centers for Engineering, Economic and Environmental Evaluation of CO2 Capture and Containment
Coal Fleet for Tomorrow
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Cross-Sector Programs & OutreachClean Coal Technologies
IGCC – AEP, Cinergy, Southern, TECO, FirstEnergyClean Coal Technologies ConferenceFutureGen
Regional Carbon Sequestration PartnershipsCompanies teaming up with federal governmentEvaluate technologies & infrastructure needs
Utility Hybrid Truck Initiative Initiative for New HomesWise Use Website - help customers reduce
energy use
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So … how’s the Electric Power Sector doing so far?
Goal: 3-5% reduction in GHG intensity, 2002-12 First year: 2003 relative to 2002 (EIA data)
CO2 emissions increased ~1.25 percent But generation grew only 0.6 percent So, CO2 intensity increased (worsened) ~0.6 percent
2004 looks a little better? (prel. EIA) CO2 emissions increased ~0.87 percent Generation grew ~1.95 percent Then CO2 intensity declined (improved) ~1.0 percent
How does 2005 look? (very preliminary) CO2 emissions increased ~2.8 percent Generation to grew ~1.7 percent Then CO2 intensity increased (worsened) ~1 percent or more
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Business-as-Usual predicts some improvementGeneration Intensity (mmtCO2e/bkwh)
0.5400
0.5520
0.5640
0.5760
0.5880
0.6000
0.6120
0.6240
0.6360
0.6480
0.6600
0.6720
0.6840
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
mm
tCO
2e/b
kwh
ModelActual
Updated Model Forecast Data from AEO 2006Historical Data from AER 2004
AEO 2005
AEO 2006
Data compiled by EOP Group.
EPICI target
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Recent & Upcoming Activities forElectric Power Companies
Increasing State and local pressuresRelease of Revised §1605(b) Reporting
Guidelines (now expected March 2006)May have impact on voluntary efforts
Expand Power PartnersPower PartnersSM Resource Guide Resource GuideHelp companies identify actions to reduce emissionsOn-line format for utilities and public use
Continue and expand GHG reduction effortsContinue and expand GHG reduction efforts
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States are getting more involved in ClimateGHG Reporting and Registries Powerplant Carbon Caps of Offsets
Source: Pew Center for Global Climate Change, July 2005 update
Greenhouse Gas InventoriesClimate Action Plans Completed
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U.S. Mayor’s Climate Protection Agreement
Initiated shortly after Kyoto Protocol took effect
Actions urged: Cities should meet or exceed Kyoto targets State & federal governments should meet or beat Kyoto
targets by 2012 Congress should enact cap & trade legislation
Effort has growth rapidly 202 Mayors have signed (as of Feb. 2, 2006) Representing over 41 million citizens Press attention worldwide
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Rapid Growth in U.S. Mayor’s C.P.A.16-Feb-2005: Kyoto
Protocol takes effect30-Mar-2005: 10
Mayors launch program
13-Jun-2005: U.S. Conf. of Mayors unanimously endorse
8-Dec-2005: Mayor Nickels (Seattle) highlighted at Montreal COP
2-Feb-2006: 202 Mayors signed, representing over 41 million citizens
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Background on Revising the §1605(b)GHG Reporting Guidelines
Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Program Established by Section 1605(b) of the Energy Policy Act of
1992 Oct. 1994: Final Guidelines issued First reporting year was 1994, reported by DOE in July 1996
Reporting rules were quite flexible Scope of the reporting entity Emissions and/or reductions Entity-wide or project-specific
Power sector initially dominated, still majority
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Background on Revising the §1605(b)GHG Reporting Guidelines
Concerns grew with the original program “Flexibility” reduced credibility Weak basis for future crediting Emergence of competing reporting standards
Administration plan to “substantially improve the emission reduction registry” Part of Feb. 2002 GCCI “create world-class standards for measuring and
registering emission reductions” “transferable credits to companies that can show real
emission reductions” take into account emerging domestic and int’l approaches
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Release of Revised §1605(b)GHG Reporting Guidelines
Status of §1605(b) revisions Feb. 2002: GCCI to “Substantially Improve the Emission
Reduction Registry” November 26, 2003, DOE released proposed revised
General Guidelines Jan. 2004: DOE Public Workshop on General Guidelines March 2005”: (1) revised Interim Final General Guidelines
and (2) Draft Technical Guidelines proposed April-May 2005: more DOE Public Workshops Current status (as of Dec. 2005):
DOE had expected final guidelines by end of 2005 Now aiming for “March 2006” Then a round on revised reporting forms Full implementation in 2007 for 2006 reporting
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Release of Revised §1605(b)GHG Reporting Guidelines
Will §1605(b) help or hinder its purposes? Feb. 2002: “These improvements will enhance
measurement accuracy, reliability and verifiability, working with and taking into account emerging domestic and international approaches.”
But is the WRI/WBCSD GHG Protocol becoming the new standard?
Will §1605(b) be a uniter or a divider?
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Enhance the Power PartnersPower PartnersSM Resource Guide Resource Guide
Old Climate Challenge program developed an “Options Workbook” of “best practices”
MOU commits to developing and maintaining a “Power PartnersSM Resource Guide”
At a minimum … Meet Climate Vision commitment Information for utilities, esp. smaller ones Information for general public
… and maybe also … Data collection for measuring intensity? Aid in annual Power PartnersSM report to DOE? Other purposes?
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Why Have a Website for the Resource Guide? Limitations with “One Big Document”
Bulk discourages quick and easy use Limited tie-ins with the Internet Difficult and costly to update … likely dead-end project
Possible advantages of being web-based Easy to access and navigate A “gateway” to broader Internet resources Updating via collaboration Ties into other Power PartnersSM activities Quicker and less costly to maintain … more likely to be a “living document”
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Scope of Resource Guide Website Overall Power PartnersSM enabled
Expansion for additional content and uses for public and/or EPICI members only
PPRG is a Homepage link
Resource Guide is current focus of website Nearly 50 topics Text and references for each topic Ample opportunities for users to add content
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http://uspowerpartners.org/
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Power Companies should continue and expand their GHG reduction efforts
Understand your GHG footprint and risks Identify GHG reductions already under way Assess options for further GHG reductions
Costs Effectiveness Ancillary impacts
Develop capabilities for GHG reporting Join climate programs?
National? State & local?
Set a GHG target? Absolute level of emissions? GHG emissions intensity?
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Closing Thought #1
Every challenge containsopportunity as well as danger.
= +
CRISIS = DANGER + OPPORTUNITY
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Closing Thought #2
Come gather ’round peopleWherever you roamAnd admit that the watersAround you have grownAnd accept it that soonYou’ll be drenched to the bone.If your time to youIs worth savin’Then you better start swimmin’Or you’ll sink like a stoneFor the times they are a-changin’.
Bob Dylan, 1963
In a future filled with uncertainty, there’s value in being proactive.
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Closing Thought #3
“If you’re not at the table,you’re on the menu.”
-- Washington D.C. proverb
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Questions?
Dan KleinTwenty-First Strategies, LLC6595 Terri Knoll Ct.McLean, VA 22101
American Public Power Association
Pre-Rally WorkshopFebruary 28, 2006Washington, D.C.
Climate Change:Making Community-Based Decisions in a Carbon Constrained World