American Politics and Foreign Policy

Governmental Sources of US Foreign Policy Making

Prof. Jaechun Kim

The Institutional Setting of US Foreign Policy Making : The Concentric Circles of Policy Making

GOVERNMENTAL SOURCES OF AMERICAN FOR-EIGN POLICY

Presidential Advisors

The PresidentPolitical Appointees

Congress

Interest Group

Public Opinion & Mass Me-dia

Department & Agencies

Executive Branch

Presidential Power in US Foreign Policy

Presidential Dominance over the Making of Foreign Policy

Presidential dominance is the most prominent in the area of foreign policy (particularly security policy)

However, presidential authority in foreign policy is not granted (or specified) by the US Constitution… US Consti-tution grants the Presidents very few foreign policy powers ..

“…the president shall have the power to make treaties and to appoint ambassadors and other public minis-ters and consuls…with the advice and consent with the Senate” “…the president has the authority to receive ambassadors and other ministers from for-eign countries...”

The Constitution granted the Congress substantial degree of FP making powers.

“The specific grants of authority to the executive in foreign policy were trivial compared with the author-ity specifically granted to Congress” (Schlesinger 1989)

The Constitution authorizes Congress to deal with the regulation of intl commerce, the punishment of piracies and felonies committed on the high seas and offenses against the law of nations, and decla-rations of war.

“Power of the Purse” “No money shall be drawn from the Treasury but in consequence of ap-propriations made by law…”

Presidential dominance is the result of politi-cal practices… The Congress voluntarily re-linquished its foreign policy making power…

The American Supreme Court has also sided with the President where there was dispute between the President and Congress…

* Foreign policy of the US is what the Presi-dent says it is..

Factors that gave rise to presidential domi-nance

Crisis-ridden atmosphere of the post WWII period…

The Cold War consensus

Making of FP is the preserve of President.

In order to act assertively and effectively…

The Congress virtually relinquished the right to de-clare war!

When was the last time that the Congress declared

the war?

Erosion of the Cold War consensus?

But the presidential preeminence did not go unchal-lenged. Challenges grew in the 1960s and early 1970s. Why?

Congress also began to challenge the presidential leadership

e.g. Gulf of Tonkin Resolution (1963) cf. The War Powers Resolution (1973)

But none of these efforts removed the president from the pivotal position. Power remains concentrated in the White House.. Why??

Resources available to the President

The vast FP executive establishment. 1947

National Security Act National Security

Council; the Central Intelligence Agency, and

the Department of Defense… Out of 4 m civil-

ian employees working for the Federal gov-

ernment, about 50,000 are working for the

jobs related to foreign affairs.

Executive Establishment

(Executive Departments and Agencies…)

CAVEATS!! President does not have absolute control over the bureaucrats. Bu-

reaucrats have organizational (or organized) interests (that can be dif-ferent from that of the President). “President is a transient meddler!”

cf. Harry Truman - "He'll sit here and he'll say do this! do that! and noth-ing will happen. Poor Ike — it won't be a bit like the Army. He'll find it very frustrating."

Department chiefs (often) become captives of the interests of their own departments… “Where you stand depends on where you sit.”

Therefore Cabinet meetings are the “perennial loser”.. not effective…

The cabinet declined in importance in the making of FP. The President relies less and less on the cabinet…

Increasing importance of inner circle…

The Presidential Subsystem (inner circle)

The President’s inner circle people usually work in the White House…

The Executive Office of the President (The Executive Re-organization Act of 1939) institutionalized presidency

Since then, the size and influence of White House has in-creased dramatically! “The institutionalized presidency has become a powerful inner sanctum of government, iso-lated from traditional, constitutional checks and balances” (Cronin 1984)

EOP include: the National Economic Council; the Council of Economic Advisers, the Council on Sustainable Devel-opment; the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)… the Office of United States Trade Representatives (USTR); the National Security Council (NSC)…

Joshua Bolten

January 20, 2001 – April 14, 2006 (Resigned)

April 14, 2006 – January 20, 2009

White House Chief of Staff (Bush Adm.)

Andrew Card

Karl Christian Rove (born De-cember 25, 1950) is an Amer-ican political consultant and policy advisor. He was Senior Advisor and Deputy Chief of Staff during the George W. Bush administration until Rove's resignation on August 31, 2007.

He has headed the Office of Political Affairs, the Office of Public Liaison, and the White House Office of Strategic Ini-tiatives.

http://www.washingtonpost.-com/politics/karl-rove-and-his-super-pac-vow-to-press-on/2012/11/10/19ed28ea-2a96-11e2-b4e0-346287b7e56c_story.html

White House Chief of Staff (Obama Adm.)

Rahm Emanuel Pete Rouse(Acting)

William M. Daley

Jan.2009 – Oct.2010 (Resigned)

Oct. 2010 – Jan.2011 Jan.2011 – Jan.2012 (Resigned)

Jacob Lew (1955~) Since January 27, 2012

(Incumbent)

Director of the Office of Management and Budget (Nov. 2010-Jan. 2012)

Director of the Office of Management and Budget (May. 1998-Jan. 2001)

25th White House Chief of Staff (Obama Adm.)

NSC is the institutional umbrella within the presidential subsystems bearing primary responsibility for foreign policy…

Head of the NSC staff (The National Security Advi-sor) has been very influential.

Henry Kissinger(8th, Nixon and Ford Adm.)

Z. Brzezinski

(10th, Carter Adm.)

Brent Scowcroft (9th, 17th, Ford & Senior Bush Adm.)

NSC is the institutional umbrella within the presidential subsystems bearing primary responsibility for foreign policy…

Head of the NSC staff (The National Security Advi-sor) has been very influential.

Condoleezza Rice

(20th, Bush Adm.)

Stephen Hadley

(21st , Bush Adm.)

Gen. James L. Jones

(22nd, Obama Adm.)

Brent Scowcroft (1925~) 9th & 17th United States

National Security Advisor

Scowcroft was a leading Republican critic of U.S. policy towards Iraq before and after the 2003 invasion.

23rd National Security Advisor (Obama Adm.)

Tom Donilon (1955~)

Since October 8, 2010 (Incumbent)

replacing James Jones

Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs (Jan. 2009-Oct. 2010)

Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs (Apr.1993-Nov.1996)

Richard Cheney • 46th Vice President of the United States

• 17th United States Secretary of Defense

• 7th White House Chief

of Staff

Donald Rumsfeld• 13th and 21st United States Secretary of Defense

• 6th White House Chief of Staff

Richard B. Myers • 15th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

• a retired four-star general in the United States Air Force

Bush Administration

Mike McConnell• 2nd Director of National Intelligence

• 13th Director of the NSA

John Negroponte• 15th United States Deputy Secretary of State

• 1st United States Director of National Intelligence

Robert Gates• 22nd United States Secretary of Defense

• 15th Director of Central Intelligence

• 16th Deputy Director of Central Intelligence

Bush Administration

Joe Biden

• 47th Vice President of the United States

• United States Senator from Delaware

(Jan.1973 – Jan.2009)

Leon Panetta

• 23rd United States Secretary of Defense

• Director of the Central

Intelligence Agency

Gen. Martin Dempsey

• 18th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Obama Administration

James R. Clapper

• 4th Director of National Intelligence

• Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence

• Director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency

William J. Burns

• 17th United States Deputy Secretary of State

• 20th Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs

Hillary Clinton

• 67th United States Secretary of State

• United States Senator from New York

(Jan.2001-Jan.2009)

Obama Administration

Susan Rice

• 27th United States Ambassador to the United Nations

• 12th Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs of the United States

Michael Morell

• Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (Acting from Nov.2012) • Acting Director follow-

ing the resignation of General David Petraeus

Obama Administration

David Petraeus

• Director of CIA (Sep.2011-Nov.2012, succeeded by Michael Morell) • Commander of the International Security Assistance Force(ISAF)

NSC – statutory members include the president as

chairman, the vice president, secretaries of State

and Defense. DCIA (now NDI) and the chairman of

JCS are statutory advisers. But presidents can in-

clude anyone he wishes…

Deliberations and decisions are purely advisory..

But over time, it has become the primary mechanism

through which all the president tackle foreign policy

problems.

USTR (Office of the U S Trade Representative) – managing international trade policy

Karla Hills during the first Bush administration Mickey Kantor during the Clinton administration Robert Zoellick during the 1st GWB administration

United States Deputy Secretary of State Rob Portman since April 2005, and the Schwab..

Carla Hills Robert Zoellick Susan C. Schwab

USTR (Obama Adm.)

Ronald R. Kirk (1954~)

Since March, 2009 (Incumbent)

Ran for the US Senate (2002)

Mayor of Dallas (1995-2002)

Secretary of State of Texas (1994-95)

Danger of inner circle -- The ability of the president to make sound judgment can be impaired; dogmatism

But inevitable…

“It’s inevitable that control over foreign policy should gravitate to the White House. It’s simply impossible to shape foreign policy from the van-tage point of the State Department for the very reason foreign policy is . . . an amalgam of de-fense, intelligence, mass persuasion, and all of these things can be coordinated from close proxim-ity to the president.” – Z. Brezinski

The role of executive departments and agencies in FP making

The Department of State Bears primary responsibility for the conduct of the

US foreign affairs and for coordinating US activities overseas… The secretary of the State is the presi-dent’s foremost foreign policy advisor… “first among equals!”

But since WWII it has lost its influence in the formu-lation of FP…

Why?

Foreign Service Officers and Their Subculture…

Homogeneous diplomatic corps comprising upper-class white men from the Northeast with degrees from Ivy League colleges.

The elitist subculture promotes respect for tradi-tion and conformity. Resistant to ideas from the outside…and slow in response…

Too cautious and risk-aversive (they are wimps! – Oliver North); always prefer diplomatic solutions to the problems… ; criticized for having inherent lib-eral bias…

“From White House’s perspective, efforts to ac-commodate the legitimate concerns of other countries are often viewed as coming at the ex-pense of American interests, and the accommo-dationists are viewed as not being tough enough. Presidents usually do not have much patience with this kind of advice, find they cannot change State Department’s penchant for it, and soon stop listening”

(Gelb 1983)

Secretaries of States tend to remove themselves from the State Department. They did not give the kind of attention that might have enabled the Dept to be more intimately involved in the policy process.

Relative lack of political resources and bureaucratic mus-cle… expenditure the State Department spends - 3.8bil cf. 311.5b for defense dep. 244.5b for health and human ser-vices. 26,000 employees – one of the smallest cabinet agencies.

“[Secretary of the State Department] is the most senior of cabinet members, and is charge with responsibility for the coordination of all foreign policy activities, [but] he pre-sides over a bureaucratic midget.”

marginalization of the State Department

DOD (The Department of Defense; Pentagon)

The Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff bear the heaviest responsibility for advising the president on national security policy.

DoD is a very complex organization performing complicated tasks…

BUREAUCRATIC SOURCES OF PRESIDENTIAL FOREIGN POLICY POWER CONT’D

Four primary roles

Policy role - providing advice and analysis to the White House on national security matters. This function is chiefly performed by the secretary and the office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) along with the JCS and their chairman.

It exercises military command over the nation’s armed forces (under the overall authority of the president)

It administers the military services, managing personnel and budgets, weapons and supplies and training forces.

DOD collects intelligence.

The Policy Shop : The Office of the Secretary of Defense

One of the major developments in the US FP bureaucracy was the rise of the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) as a source of policy ideas.

Robert McNamara’s tenure as secretary in the 1960s solidified the OSD’s role as an important bureaucratic player.

The OSD is technically the staff of the Sec of Def, but this staff is organized into a wide variety of offices…

The Office of the USD for Policy is very powerful.. it houses a se-ries of units designed to formulate and analyze policy options. His-torically called “policy shop!”

During the 1960s, for example, the Office of ASD for Intl Security Affairs (ISA) - identified by many as little State Dept. cf. Rumsfeld

NSS, QDR, NPR, BMDR, etc.

The Iron Triangle

Each of the branches – army, navy, air force – of the armed forces has developed important and influen-tial allies in private industry and in Congress.

The iron triangle in defense policy – linking defense contractors, defense bureaucrats, and Congres-sional subcommittees – enable them to fight for poli-cies and programs that are at variance with the wishes of the civilian leadership…

“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex.” - Ike

Do they drive the US foreign policy?

Chairman of JCS and Goldwater-Nichols Act of 1986 (Defense Reorganization act of 1986)

The most sweeping change since 1947 National Security Act

Created secretary – civilian – who head each branch of the military services. See Chart!

Strengthened the role of (the institutions associated with the) JCS at the expense of the separate service organization.

JCS consists of the ‘senior military officers’ within each service – chiefs of staff of the Army, Navy, Air Force. It is headed by the Chairman of JCS. He is the chief military advisor to the president and secre-tary of defense. He is in charge of dealing with inter-service rivalry…

The Act advanced the jointness concept and re-

duced inter-service rivalries.

The Chairman of JCS - the nation’s chief military

officer… chief military advisor to the president, but

he does not have the direct control over the US

combat forces… He is supposed to be a “thinker”

not “doer.”

General Martin E. Dempsey is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the highest-rank-ing officer in the U.S. Armed Forces and the President's principal military advisor.

As such, he presides over all meetings and coordinates the efforts of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), advising the Secretary of De-fense, the National Security Council and the Homeland Security Council.

Prior to this duty, Gen. Dempsey served 149 days as the 37th Chief of Staff of the Army from April 11, 2011, to September 7, 2011. Prior to that, he served as Commanding General, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, from December 8, 2008, to April 11, 2011, as Acting Commander, U.S. Cen-tral Command, from March 24, 2008, to Oc-tober 30, 2008..etc.

Current Chairman of Joint Chief of Staff

Martin E. Dempsey (1952~)

The Role of Intelligence Community

• One of the most understudied aspect of the President’s FP resources…

• The Intelligence Community is a group of 13 (or 15) government agencies and organiza-tions

• Intelligence Reform of 2004 created Director of National Intelligence (DNI)

Member agencies (after the reform…) The Intelligence Community currently consists of sixteen agencies and offices

throughout several departments of the executive branch: Independent Agency

Central Intelligence Agency United States Department of Defense

Air Intelligence Agency Army Intelligence Counterintelligence Field Activity (CIFA) Defense Intelligence Agency Marine Corps Intelligence Activity National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency National Reconnaissance Office National Security Agency Office of Naval Intelligence

United States Department of Justice Drug Enforcement Administration: Intelligence Division Federal Bureau of Investigation: National Security Division

United States Department of Homeland Security Coast Guard Intelligence DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis

United States Department of Energy Office of Intelligence

United States Department of State Bureau of Intelligence and Research

United States Department of the Treasury Office of Intelligence Support

Several Things about the American Intelli-gence Community

Surprise attack of Pearl Harbor – Created OSS (Office of Strategic Services) in 1942. This was transformed into CIA in 1947.

US intelligence has been major arm of the US foreign policy during the Cold War.

Every administration ultimately turns to the use of intelligence activities and covert operations when they become frustrated about the lack of success with diplomatic initiatives and are un-willing to use military force…

Most of the American Cold War actions were undertaken without awareness of the American public and people around the world.

Failure to predict 911 attack was consid-ered another great intelligence failure.

US Intelligence Activities

US spends about 30-35 billion dollars a year for intelligence activities…

TECHINT (Technical Intelligence) IMINT (intelligence activities through reconnais-

sance satellites, etc.) SIGINT (intelligence activities from interception

and analysis of communications, electronic, and telemetry signals)

HUMINT (intelligence activities through hu-man agents – 007 type of action!).

Covert Action : a type of humint. CIA is in charge of

this.

Definition: An attempt to influence politics in other coun-tries without revealing one’s involvement.

Examples?

1953 - Iran (Mossadeq Shah) 1954 - Guatemala (Arbenz) 1954 1948 - North Vietnam 1957 1973 - Laos 1961 - Congo (Lumumba Mobutu) 1963 - Dominican Republic (Bosch) 1964 - Brazil (Goulart) 1965 - Indonesia (Sukarno Suharto) 1970 - Cambodia 1973 - Chile (Allende Pinochet) 1975 - Australia 1979 - Nicaragua (Sandinistas)

Intelligence Organization

DOD consumes about 2/3 of the budget.

NRO (National Reconnaissance Office)

- With National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency NRO is responsible for US IMINT. It manages the America’s satellite reconnaissance pro-grams at an annual cost of about $7billion in the 1990s. The satellites provide enormous amounts of detailed information on military and related strategic developments.

NSA (National Security Agency)

Responsible for signals intelligence - SIGINT. $5-

billion in the 1990s. But it is the largest agency,

employing an estimated 38,000 people in 2000.

Did not acknowledge its existence until 1991. Low-

Profile Agency

Use supercomputers and satellites to intercept the

communications..

CIA (Central Intelligence Agency)

Independent Agency

Directorate of Intelligence (Analysis)

It digests the vast quantity of data from public and intelligence community sources and pro-duces the CIA’s intelligence assessments.

Directorate of Operations (Operations)

: Covert action, clandestine intelligence collec-tion, and counterintelligence are the major op-erations that CIA engages in.

Michael Hayden(1945~)

20th Director of the Central Intelligence

Agency

Principal Deputy Director of National Intelli-gence

15th Director of the National Security Agency

Director of the CIA (Bush Adm.)

Director of the CIA (Obama Adm.)

Michael Morell(1958~)

Acting Director of CIA (since Nov. 2012) Became Acting Director following the resignation

of General David Petaeus. Obama will nominate him for the director position

on a permanent basis. The nomination has to be

formally approved by the Senate.

David Petraeus(1952~)

Director of CIA (Sep.2011-Nov.2012,

succeeded by Michael Morell) Commander of the International

Security Assistance Force(ISAF) Commander of United States Central

Command (USCENTCOM)

American Intelligence after 911

American intelligence community (particularly CIA)

was going through identity crisis after the Cold War.

911 We should reform our intelligence commu-nity…

Renewed emphasis on Humint..

Reinforcing the existing intelligence liaison network -

Intelligence Reform of 2005

( Reinforcing the existing intelligence liaison net-work )

Revamping UKUSA agreement and ECHELON Global Surveillance System…

Intelligence sharing Doing intelligence works to-gether??

Intelligence Reform of 2005 – GWB asking Brent Scowcroft to review IC and make rec-

ommendation for intelligence reform NRO, the National

Imagery and Mapping Agency, and the NSA be trans-

ferred to CIA..

Rumsfeld – Covert Action capacity should be transferred

to DoD

Creation of DNI

Director of National Intelligence (Obama Adm.)

James R. Clapper(1941~)

Since August 9, 2010

4th Director of National Intelligence

preceded by Dennis Blair

Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence

(Apr.2007-Jun.2010)

Director of National Geospatial-Intelligence

Agency (Sep.2001-Jun.2006)