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AMERICAN DREAM COALTION Stimulus, Reauthorization and Mobility Alan E. Pisarski.
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Transcript of AMERICAN DREAM COALTION Stimulus, Reauthorization and Mobility Alan E. Pisarski.
![Page 1: AMERICAN DREAM COALTION Stimulus, Reauthorization and Mobility Alan E. Pisarski.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032518/56649cc95503460f94991711/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
AMERICAN DREAM COALTION
Stimulus, Reauthorization and Mobility
Alan E. Pisarski
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WHAT’S IN OUR FUTURE?
STIMULUS PACKAGE TRUST FUND INSOLVENCY– AGAIN
VMT DOWN 3.6% FUELS DOWN 7.1% HTF REVENUE DOWN 11.6% vs forecast
REAUTHORIZATION OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION LEGISLATION
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STIMULUS PACKAGE—ARRA 789B$ TOTAL 27.5B$ HIGHWAYS 1.5B% DISCRETIONARY GRANTS
Corridors, TIFIA, Earmarks 8.4B$ TRANSIT 1.1 AIRPORT IMPROVEMENT GRANTS 850m$ AMTRAK; 450M$ security 8B$ HSR (plan due yesterday)
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Transportation lost in the game “We got rolled” John Mica Ranking Member
House T&I AASHTO had “5000 shovel ready projects”
worth about 66B$ (hwys only) Bill uses standard formulas; no St. match States taking varied approaches
lots of small maintenance – paving, painting or few big ones (KS 4) Texas supporting toll road plans
1,800 projects obligated ($5.6b) this week
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Next Reauthorization
Due Oct 1, 2009 (6 years usually) Highways and transit; HSR? Congress always misses due date; 12
CRs last time They say they will be ready this time I doubt it – new Admin., no $$$$$
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Next Reauthorization (2)
Who will be in charge? WH, DOT, Congress?
New Secretary Ray LaHood alone No Senior staff– some announcements DOT might prefer a CR so that they
could be serious players next year If meet September goal then DOT’s
role limited
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Next Reauthorization (3) Finance, Finance, Finance Stimulus package will affect
decisions Tolling, congestion pricing disliked
by leadership but few options More afraid of gas tax increases Is private sector still ready with $$$ Devolution by Default ??
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Next Reauthorization (4)
Maybe reorg DOT away from modes to “functional structure” = intercity; metro
Metro mobility = transit, bikes, walking
Intercity; tourism weak Watch private freight rail New focus on land use policies
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State of play in national legislation – Financial issues –
Not close to increase in last cycle (40%) Needs put at 2x funding Fed Gas tax at 18.4¢ doesn’t = 3¢ in 1956 Fed share of capital about 40 % Some opportunities regarding revenues “Innovative Finance” as alternative
INNOVATIVE FINANCE AIN’T MONEY
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THREEWAY CONFLICTS
TRANSPORTATION LEGISLATION ENERGY LEGISLATION GHG LEGISLATION
Cap and Trade – rebate or spend? Carbon Tax Air could catch brunt of plans after
roads
ALL ANTAGONISTIC TO MOBILITY
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EFFICIENCY VS EQUITY
The Efficiency/Equity argument is fundamental to any regulatory process
EQUITY = your responsibility for share of solution should equal your share of the problem!
EFFICIENCY = do most cost-effective first and solve more of the problem per $
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TRANSPORTATION VS OTHER GHG OPTIONS Options for alternate
fuels in other sectors are greater. MOST COST EFFECTIVE
Main focus should be electricity generation.
WHY IS TRANSPORTATION SINGLED OUT AS ONLY SECTOR TO HAVE OUTPUT CUT?
No one suggests farm output or industrial output should be cut by their share of GHG !
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Impacts on mobility Energy; GHG = CUT VMT! Metro Mobility = Walk, Bike, Transit Coalition w/HUD = use Transportation $$
for land use coercion and subsidies Emphasis on Tolling/Pricing but not market
driven; pay-at-pump insurance VMT tax = tax travel based on where, when
and what you are doing
GOAL IS TO SUPPRESS VMT – GHG IS JUST THIS YEAR’S EXCUSE
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The policy conflict = opposed thinking about the world
Neighborhood Shorter trips Walk/bike Land use solutions Design What’s freight? Accessibility Public Mass Behavior change Make it happen
Globally Integrated Longer trips Broad “community” Choices Market forces Major role for freight Mobility Private Personalized Technological fix Let it happen
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The Right Answer Should At Least Be Among The Options Available! This is A Real Problem even independent
of global warming Fuel costs Energy Security Economic Uncertainties
This Is A Real Problem With Little Resources
FOCUS ON EFFICIENCY Selling Bad Solutions To A Real Problem Should Be Out!
Research / Economic Analysis / Performance Measurement should be key
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The focus on changing behavior diverts us from the real issues
Enhancing economic opportunities Access to workers; access to jobs Mainstreaming minorities Safety Serving an aging population Greater freedom of mobility Infrastructure Reconstruction More!
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A closing thought – TRB 2009
The major challenge facing the new Secretary will be getting people to take transportation seriously—to recognize that the cost is not the benefit, and it is what happens after you build the road or the airport or transit system that matters to our future economic productivity and national well-being.”
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Next Reauthorization (5)
Commissions are for cover or temporizing!
Two commissions said the same thing – more $$ needed
Commission mandated by SAFTEA-LU reported last month:
need 10c for inflation and plan for new non-petroleum based vehicle mileage tax
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The Federal Highway Trust Fund becomes insolvent this year!
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Next Reauthorization (5)
Next week AASHTO will release its Bottom Line estimates of investment needs for highways and transit on the hill (4th I have done)
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State of play in national legislation – Context –
Difficult period – Economy, Policy Conflicts, New Admin. , etc.
Multiple transportation legislative issues Aviation Amtrak Rail freight Maritime
More temporizing actions likely
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THE PRESENT LEGISLATIVE IMPASSE IS A SYMPTOM OF THE FUTURE!
PREMISES USER-PAY TRADITION AS GUIDE FUNDING INADEQUATE –IN 2 WAYS CONGRESS/ADMIN. RELUCTANT ON
FUEL USER FEES BOOST BUT NOT READY FOR THE NEXT STEP ADVENT OF “POST GAS-TAX ERA” SHIFT TO STATE AND LOCAL LEAD WANT/NEED PRIVATE & PUB/PRIV.
PARTICIPATION; BUT HOW?
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As the Interstate Era Came to a Close
No new vision emerged Nothing with the Interstate’s Power A Rich Funding System without a goal
1¢ = $1.7 Billion/yr RESULT
Lack of Focus Great Expansions of Eligibility A Grant Program Congressional “Earmarks”
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Post-Interstate Era Legislation
THREE 6 YEAR CYCLES 1992-ISTEA 1998-TEA-21 2005-SAFTEA-LU (2 years 11 extensions)
A new cycle begins this year Will the Congress continue to
temporize or will it launch a new era?THE POST POST INTERSTATE ERA!
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CONTEXT has two elements
FINANCE INADEQUATE
FUNDING OF HIGHWAY NEEDS
FUEL EFFICIENCY SOME INFLATION NEW POWER
SOURCES
POLICY MANAGE SYSTEM USE “MARKET-
PLACE” USE PRIVATE
SECTOR USE ECONOMIC
CONCEPTS
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Transport is most dependent on high energy density fuels
“Cost effectiveness (cost per tonne of CO2) is the fundamental determinant of which abatement policies to adopt and how much the transport sector should contribute towards economy-wide CO2 abatement goals --- it is important to achieve the required emissions reductions at the lowest overall cost to avoid damaging welfare and economic growth.”
“Transport and other sectors are expected to contribute less to overall emissions reduction strategies.”
ECMT Council of Ministers Transport and Environment ;Jun 2006
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2828
U.S. Greenhouse Gas U.S. Greenhouse Gas EmissionsEmissions
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Surface Transportation is the main issue for now
Rail, 43
Waterborne, 58
Air, 171
Heavy Vehicles,
350
Light Vehicles,
1113
Pipeline/Other, 47 Internat'l./Bunker,
84
U. S. Transportation Carbon Emissions by Mode, 2003
(Million metric tons CO2)
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A little Perspective Here!How much are we really talking about?3.6% drop for year =
Last year I drove 300 miles a week [15,000 miles/yr]
This year I drove 290 miles a week
= 1 five mile trip lost per week
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VMT trend is not just gas prices
WEAK ECONOMY Discretionary trips in Vacation Season DEMOGRAPHY - a long term trend
VMT GROWTH RATE PER DECADE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
perc
en
t ch
an
ge
![Page 32: AMERICAN DREAM COALTION Stimulus, Reauthorization and Mobility Alan E. Pisarski.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032518/56649cc95503460f94991711/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
IS FUEL CHEAP AT 4$?
Cost/ gal
Fuel Efficiency
Cost/mile
1981 2007$
3.09 16.4 18.8 cents
2007 2.85 22.4 12.7 cents
2008approx.
4.00 23.7* 16.8 cents
PLUS WE ARE 20% RICHER THAN THEN!
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Would 5$ or 6$ gas change America? LIFE STYLE PREFERENCES WILL DETERMINE
GOALS; AND TECHNOLOGY WILL RESPOND The consumer benefit of automobility is colossal
– think of toll costs = $4/gal Europe at $9/gal; still has traffic jams SERIOUS EFFECTS
slower access to automobility of minorities and lower income populations
Rural stress Less access to broader worker pool Depresses auto sales
FLEET TURNOVER RATE WILL BE KEY
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THE GHG TRENDS ARE LARGELY POSITIVE
CO2 Is Almost Self-stabilizing Energy Intensity/GDP Declining about
2%/yr Energy Intensity/Capita will decline
.5%/yr Transportation VMT Slow Growth
Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Demography
Price Will Be Key Factor
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Backgrounder #2
Energy, Environment and Economy Institute of Transportation Engineers
Requested by ITE Board of Directors A WIN, WIN, WIN Opportunity Traced fuel issues and travel trends Its all about efficiency
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VMT Trends
US decline in VMT in 2008 about 3.6% Still low now that Economy is driver Rural areas hit hardest around 9%
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WE SAW THIS BEFOREHistorical Passenger Car VMT
change 1974-1984
-5.00%-4.00%-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%
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VMT trend is not just gas prices
NOW WEAK ECONOMY Discretionary trips in Vacation Season DEMOGRAPHY - a long term trend
VMT GROWTH RATE PER DECADE
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
perc
en
t ch
an
ge
![Page 39: AMERICAN DREAM COALTION Stimulus, Reauthorization and Mobility Alan E. Pisarski.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032518/56649cc95503460f94991711/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
A little Perspective Here!How much are we really talking about?3.6% drop for year =
Last year I drove 300 miles a week [15,000 miles/yr]
This year I drove 290 miles a week
= 1 five mile trip lost per week
![Page 40: AMERICAN DREAM COALTION Stimulus, Reauthorization and Mobility Alan E. Pisarski.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032518/56649cc95503460f94991711/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
VMT Response: Where did it go?
TRIP CHAINING – Big payoffs
CARPOOLING Work – some gains Non-work – more
CUTS IN TRIP LENGTH CUTS IN TRIPS MADE SHIFTS TO TRANSIT?
Maybe 2%
FREIGHT Local
Distribution opportunities
Load changes Big Fleet
gains
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WAS FUEL CHEAP AT 4$?Cost/ gal
Fuel Efficiency Cost/mile
1981 2007$ 3.09 16.4 18.8 cents
2007 2.85 22.4 12.7 cents
2008approx.
4.00 23.7 16.8 cents
PLUS WE ARE/WERE 20% RICHER THAN THEN!
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Would 5$ or 6$ gas change America? LIFE STYLE PREFERENCES WILL DETERMINE
GOALS; AND TECHNOLOGY WILL RESPOND The consumer benefit of automobility is colossal
– think of toll costs = $4/gal Europe at $9/gal; still has traffic jams SERIOUS EFFECTS
slower access to automobility of minorities and lower income populations
Rural stress Less access to broader worker pool Depresses auto sales
FLEET TURNOVER RATE WILL BE KEY
![Page 43: AMERICAN DREAM COALTION Stimulus, Reauthorization and Mobility Alan E. Pisarski.](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032518/56649cc95503460f94991711/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
A Question!
What Part Of Gains In Air Quality In The Past 20 Years Have Come From:
Technology 95% to 105% Changed Behavior
+5% to -5%
What Part Of Gains In Green House Gases In The Next 20 Years Will Come From:
Technology? Changed
Behavior?
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44
Potential impacts on new and existing transportation infrastructure?
Permanent inundation of roads, bridge approaches
Weakening of land, substructure supporting roads, bridges
Temporary flooding of roads Coastal Interior
Increased stream flow, erosion and bridge scour Pavement cracking, deformation;
King Gee, FHWA
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REGULATION SAFETY of growing interest
Major decline last year; why? CAFÉ – raised standard from current
27.5 miles per gallon standard to 35.7 miles per gallon by 2015. light trucks, from 23.5 miles per gallon in 2010 to 28.6 miles per gallon in 2015
GHG – BIG ISSUE Cap and Trade – rebate or spend? Carbon Tax Air could catch brunt of plans after roads
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TRANSPORTATION VS OTHER OPTIONS
Options for alternate fuels in other sectors are greater. MOST COST EFFECTIVE
Main focus is, and should be, electricity generation.
WHY IS TRANSPORTATION SINGLED OUT AS ONLY SECTOR TO HAVE OUTPUT CUT?
No one suggests farm output or industrial output should be cut by 25%