America’s Diversity Explosion · America’s Diversity Explosion: What it means for Presidential...
Transcript of America’s Diversity Explosion · America’s Diversity Explosion: What it means for Presidential...
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WILLIAM H. FREYBrookings Institution and University of Michigan
America’s Diversity Explosion:What it means for Presidential Politics
1980 2010200019901970 2020 2030 2040 20500
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225Millions
WHITES
MINORITIES
U.S. White and Minority Populations, 1970-2050
Source: Brookings analysis of U.S. Census data
3
1
2
3
Diversity by generation: From the bottom up
By generation: From the bottom up By dispersal: From the melting pots out
Cultural Generation Gap: U.S. Population Compositions by Age and Race, 2015
Source: American Community Survey, 2015
85+
65 – 84
50 - 64
35 - 49
18 - 34
5 - 17
Under 5
Age
Whites Blacks Asians Hispanics 2+ races Other races
Hispanic Concentration Areas and New Hispanic Destinations
Hispanic Concentration – modest growthHispanics comprise at least 16% of 2010 population and population increased by less than 43% between 2000 & 2010
Hispanic Concentration – fast growthHispanics comprise at least 16% of 2010 population and population increased by at least 43% between 2000 & 2010
New Hispanic destinationsHispanics comprise at least 16% of 2010 population and population increased by at least 86% between 2000 & 2010
Source: 2010 U.S. Census
America’s Racial Kaleidoscope: Counties where minorities are overrepresented
Source: 2010 U.S. Census
Black
Hispanic
Asian
Other minority
Two or more minority groups
None
Minority percentage of population
50+ %40-49%30-39%
20-29%10-19%0-9%
1980 2016
Reduced neighborhood segregation
Multiracial marriage and identity Extending the political battleground
Melting pot cities and suburbs
Implications for future presidential elections
3
Demographics of the 2016 election
2
Demographics of elections through 2012
1
Source: Current Population Survey, November 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 Supplements
BlackWhite Asian Latino Other races
Eligible Voters by Race, 2004‐ 2016
75.2 73.4 71.1 68.9
0
20
40
60
80
100
2004 2008 2012 2016
Percent
75% 73% 71% 69%
12% 12% 12% 12%
3% 4% 4% 5%
8% 10% 11% 12%
67 66 6460
65 66
47 50 48 44 48 47
Voter turnout by race in the 2004, 2008, 2012 presidential elections
Source: Current Population Survey, November 2004, 2008, 2012 Supplements
2004
2008
2012
WHITES BLACKS HISPANICS ASIANS
2004
2008
2012
2004
2008
2012
2004
2008
2012
Turnout rate80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-17 -12 -20
7791 87
18
3644
1227
47
Voting margin by race in the 2004, 2008, 2012 presidential elections
MoreDemocratic
MoreRepublican
Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported by CNN
2004
2008
2012
Margin100
80
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
WHITES BLACKS HISPANICS ASIANS
2004
2008
2012
2004
2008
2012
2004
2008
2012
Voting margin by age group, 2012
WHITES MINORITIES TOTAL
Margin60
45
30
15
0
-15
-30
-7
-21 -23 -22
64 6357 58
23
7
-4-12
Ages 18-29
Ages 30-44
Ages 45-64
Ages 65+
MoreDemocratic
MoreRepublican
Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported by CNN
Presidential election results
Democrat win, due to whites and minoritiesDemocrat win, due to minorities but not whitesRepublican win
2004 2008 2012
Source: “America’s Electoral Future,” Brookings/CAP/AEI, February 2016
Implications for future presidential elections3
Demographics of the 2016 election2
Demographics of elections through 20121
States won by Donald Trumpand Hillary Clinton, 2016 Election
Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported in CNN Election Center (www.cnn.com/election).
Clinton (D) win – due to whites and minoritiesClinton (D) win – due to minorities but not whitesTrump (R) win
Source: Current Population Survey, November 2012 and 2016 Supplements
64% 66%
48% 47%
65%60%
48% 49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Voter Turnout by Race 2012 and 2016
Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians2012 2016 2012 2016 2012 2016 2012 2016
-20
87
44 47
-20
81
38 38
Voting margins by race, 2012 and 2016
WHITES BLACKS HISPANICS ASIANS
MoreDemocratic
MoreRepublican
20122016
20082012
2004
2016
-11
-23
-4
-18-14
-26
-3
-37
White vote margins by education,2004-2016
White, college White, non-college
MoreRepublican
Percent of white residents without college degree
< 3030 - 4040 - 5050 - 60> 60
< 30%30% - 40%40% - 50%50% - 60%
> 60%
-11
-16 -15
-3
-21
-29
-16
-11
White vote margins in Midwestern swing states, 2012 and 2016
20122016
Michigan Ohio Pennsylvania Wisconsin
MoreRepublican
Population Profiles of Counties that Voted for Trump and Clinton*
Source: Author’s analysis of David Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections in 2016 and U.S. census population estimates, 2015.*Refers to total population (in millions) residing in counties that voted for Trump or Clinton.
TRUMP COUNTIES CLINTON COUNTIES
Age 85+
Age 75-84
Age 65-74
Age 55-64
Age 45-54
Age 35-44
Age 25-34
Age 15-24
Age <15
Age 85+
Age 75-84
Age 65-74
Age 55-64
Age 45-54
Age 35-44
Age 25-34
Age 15-24
Age <15
0 5 10 15 200 5 10 15 200 25
Whites Minorities
Whites
Minorities
(Millions) (Millions)
Democratic-over-Republican Margin, by Age Group, 2016
Source: National Election Pool media consortium, Edison Research as reported in CNN Election Center (www.cnn.com/election). *Margin is defined by percent voting for Democratic candidate minus percent voting for Republican candidate.
Whites Minorities Total
-4
-17 -19
58 5852
46
19
10
-8 -7
-28
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Margin*
-10
-20
-30
Ages 18-29Ages 30-44Ages 45-64Ages 65+
Implications for future presidential elections3
Demographics of the 2016 election2
Demographics of elections through 20121
Projections for eligible voters by race
2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036
Hispanic
African-American
Asians and others
20
15
10
5
Percent of Eligible Voters
Source: Brookings, “Diversity Explosion”, 2018
45 - 64
2020
18 - 2920
25
30
35
2016
30 - 44
2024 2028 2032
Percent of eligible voters by age (%)
65+
2036
Source: Brookings, “Diversity Explosion”, 2018
Percent of Eligible Voters
Projected Eligible Voters, by Race and Age, 2016 and 2028
Source: Current Population Survey, November 2016 Supplement; author’s calculations based on U.S. Census Bureau projections.
Millions
Whites Blacks Asians Hispanics Other races
Ages 18-29 Ages 30-44 Ages 45-64 Ages 65+
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
02016 2028 2016 2028 2016 2028 2016 2028
0
47 4953
62
7875
47
68
Minority Eligible Voters (%)
2016 2036
< 30%30% - 40%40% - 50%50% - 60%
> 60%
Election results assuming 2016 voting patterns
2020
279 - 259
2024
306 - 232
2028
322 - 216Source: “America’s Electoral Future,” Center for American Progress, Brookings, PRRI, and Bipartisan Policy Center
Voting Margins by Race
Black
Latino
White
Asian
‐20‐10
81 81
38 4038
54
2016 Presidential 2018 House
MoreRepublican
MoreDemocrat
White Margins by Age
2016 Presidential 2018 House
Age 30‐44
Age 45‐64
Age 18‐29
Age 65+‐4
13
‐17
0
‐28
‐19‐19‐13More
Republican
MoreDemocrat
White Margins by Education and Gender
Non‐college women
College men
Non‐college men
College women
‐48
‐34‐27
‐14‐14‐4
7
20
2016 Presidential 2018 House
MoreRepublican
MoreDemocrat
Election results assuming Non-college white swing to Republicans (+10 pts)
2020
209 - 329
2024
214 - 324
2028
214 - 324Source: “America’s Electoral Future,” Center for American Progress, Brookings, PRRI, and Bipartisan Policy Center
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WILLIAM H. FREYBrookings Institution and University of Michigan
America’s Diversity Explosion:How New Racial Demographics are Remaking America
WILLIAM H. FREYUniversity of Michigan and The Brookings Institution
The Impact of Changing DemographicsOn American Politics
Recent and Future Presidential Elections