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The Atlantic/Aspen Institute IMAGINING 2024 The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Imagining 2024 1 merica Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute Survey ppendix

description

 

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

Imagining 2024

1

America Looks to 2024: The Atlantic/Aspen Institute SurveyAppendix

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024Methodology

2

Penn Schoen Berland, working with Burson Marsteller, conducted 2,001 online interviews with the general population of the U.S. from May 28-31, 2014.

The overall margin of error is ± 2.19%

The data presented in this study are reflective of U.S. Census Bureau demographic statistics in terms of gender, age, ethnicity, income and political party.

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IMAGINING 2024

APPENDIX

3

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Imagining 2024:We are moving from an “Age of Possibility” to an “Age

of Impossibility”

4

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35% of Americans believe that the US will be on the right track in 2024

5

2539

1730

48

16

3546

28

6247

7658

37

78

28 2235

OVER THE PAST 10 YEARS

All Democrats

Republi-cans

Rig

ht T

rack

Wro

ng D

irect

ion

CURRENTLY 10 YEARS FROM NOW

AMERICA’S PATHDo you think the United States has been, is, or will be one the right

track or headed in the wrong direction?

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39% think the American economy will be on the right track in 10 years

6

US ECONOMYTen years ago, do you think the American economy was on the

right track or headed in the wrong direction?

In ten years, do you think the American economy will be on the right track or headed in the wrong direction?

All Democrats Republicans

44%

37%

56%

39%

51%

33%

The American economy was / will be on the right track

2004 2004 20042024 2024 2024

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Do you think America will be considered the "land of opportunity" in ten years?

All

Male

Female

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

33%

37%

30%

29%

29%

38%

34%

42%

40%

44%

44%

47%

41%

40%

24%

22%

26%

27%

24%

22%

26%

Yes No Don't know

33% think that America will be the “land of opportunity” in 10 years

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49% believe that hard work is less likely to pay off in the future

8

61%30%

23%49%

10 YEARS FROM NOW

HARD WORK AND PLAYING BY RULESTen years ago, do you think that people who worked hard and played by the rules were more or less likely to get ahead?

In ten years, do you think that people who work hard and play by the rules will be more or less likely to get ahead?

10 YEARS AGO

Less Likely

More Likely

All All

In 2024

All

Age Political Affiliation

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

More likely 30 32 33 29 25 36 31 24

Less likely 49 42 48 49 58 42 51 52

Don’t know 21 26 19 23 17 23 18 23

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Do you think that the gap between the rich and poor has grown or shrunk in the United States over the past ten years?

Do you think that the gap between the rich and poor will grow or shrink in the United States over the next ten years?

66% think the gap between the rich and poor will grow over the next 10 years

Past Ten YearsAll

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Grown 77 78 76 71 74 77 90 81 74 76

Shrunk 10 9 10 10 15 9 4 9 12 10

Don't know 13 12 14 18 11 14 6 10 14 14

In Ten YearsAll

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Grow 66 67 65 59 65 65 79 66 67 65

Shrink 16 17 14 20 20 13 8 17 14 15

Don't know 18 16 21 21 15 22 13 16 19 20

All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+

77% 71% 74% 77%90%

10% 10% 15% 9% 4%

66% 59% 65% 65%79%

16% 20% 20% 13% 8%

Grown over the last 10 years Shrunk over the last 10 years Grow over the next 10 years Shrink over the next 10 years

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Do you think the middle class in the United States has grown or shrunk over the past ten years?

Do you think the middle class in the United States will grow or shrink over the next ten years?

57% think the middle class has shrunk over the past 10 years, and 49% think it will shrink by 2024

Ten Years AgoAll

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Grown 28 28 28 44 33 21 14 28 26 29

Shrunk 57 56 59 32 52 66 81 61 61 51

Don't know 15 16 13 24 15 14 5 11 13 19

In Ten YearsAll

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Grow 31 33 29 43 36 24 22 33 29 32

Shrink 49 47 50 31 46 54 64 48 52 47

Don't know 20 20 20 26 17 21 14 20 19 22

31%

28%

49%

57%

20%

15%

Grown/Grow Shrunk/Shrink Don't know

Ten Years Ago

In Ten Years Showing All

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22% believe the U.S. will have the best education system in 10 years, followed by Japan and China

11

In ten years, which country do you think will have the best education system overall?

22% 19% 18%

5% 4% 4% 1% 2%

23%

USJapanChinaGermanyIndiaUnited KingdomRussiaOtherDon't know

ALL

In ten years, which country do you think will have the best education system overall?

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

US 22 23 21 19 21 26 19 22 24 18 29 23 21 14 21 21 23Japan 19 19 20 25 18 17 20 17 20 24 9 21 20 29 22 20 17China 18 18 19 21 19 17 18 20 18 18 22 20 18 12 20 19 17Germany 5 7 4 7 6 5 3 4 5 8 4 4 7 5 5 4 6India 4 6 2 5 3 4 4 3 3 6 3 5 3 6 4 6 3United Kingdom 4 4 4 2 3 6 3 3 3 5 8 4 2 4 5 4 4Russia 1 1 2 1 1 0 4 1 2 1 4 0 1 0 0 1 2Other 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 1 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Don't know

23 20 27 18 27 21 27 28 25 16 19 20 26 28 21 24 25

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44% think the U.S.’s math and science ranking will fall, and 47% think public schools will be worse in 10 years

12

32%

44%

24%Higher

Lower

Don't know

US students are currently ranked 31st in math and 24th in science when compared to 65 other top industrial countries. Do you expect the US to

rank higher or lower in these areas in ten years?

31%

47%

22%Better

Worse

Don't know

Ten years from now, do you expect the American public school system to be better or worse than it is today?

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

US students are currently ranked 31st in

math and 24th in science when

compared to 65 other top industrial countries. Do you expect the US to rank higher or lower in these areas in ten

years? *

Higher 32 32 32 32 36 34 24 27 29 45 24 31 34 41 43 34 21Lower 44 47 41 44 36 42 53 39 51 41 52 45 39 39 36 46 48

Don’t know 24 21 27 23 29 23 23 34 20 14 24 24 27 20 20 20 31

Ten years from now, do you expect the American public

school system to be better or worse than it

is today?*

Better 31 33 29 26 33 38 22 23 30 39 29 27 32 39 39 34 23Worse 47 48 47 46 45 45 54 46 52 49 49 54 44 44 40 50 51

Don’t know 22 19 24 28 22 17 24 31 18 13 22 20 24 17 21 16 26

ALL N=970

*Reduced base sizes

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Americans are most likely to say private school is the best option for children today and will be in 10 years as well

13

23%17%

10% 11%

32% 33%

16% 18%19% 21%

Public school Charter school Private school Home schooling Don't know

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

In your opinion, what do you think is the best option for school-aged children in America today? *

Public school 23 22 24 30 20 25 18 21 25 24 28 19 23 24 29 22 20Charter school 10 11 9 13 7 8 12 7 12 13 7 11 10 12 8 17 6Private school 32 34 30 23 41 34 26 22 33 42 36 33 27 34 37 30 29Home schooling 16 15 18 14 15 17 20 21 17 11 14 19 18 12 9 19 20Don’t know 19 18 20 20 17 16 24 29 14 10 15 19 22 18 16 13 25

In ten years, what do you think will be the best option for school-aged children in America? *

Public school 17 14 20 19 15 19 15 15 20 20 17 14 23 12 21 16 15Charter school 11 13 8 13 8 11 12 10 11 12 9 13 9 12 11 16 6Private school 33 38 29 28 39 36 28 21 36 41 39 36 26 37 34 34 32Home schooling 18 16 21 15 15 19 23 23 17 15 16 21 20 15 10 19 23Don’t know 21 19 22 24 23 16 22 31 17 12 19 17 23 24 24 14 23

ALL N=970

*Reduced base sizes

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43% think that fewer Americans will go to college in 10 years, but 41% think it will be a good investment

14

37%

43%

20%

More

Fewer

Don't know

Do you think more or fewer people will go to college in ten years as compared to now

41%

30%

29% A good in-vestment

A bad in-vestment

Don't know

At a conservative rate of yearly 3% tuition increases, the annual tuition for a four-year public university in 2024 would be more than $26,000, and the average tuition of a four-

year private university would be more than $58,000. Do you think getting a college degree in ten years will be a good investment or a bad investment?

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Do you think more or fewer people will go to college in ten years as compared to now?*

More 37 41 34 34 37 43 30 26 37 47 39 34 37 38 48 40 27Fewer 43 43 44 48 37 40 50 48 46 40 39 49 43 42 34 44 50

Don’t know20 16 23 18 25 17 20 27 17 13 22 16 20 21 18 16 23

Do you think getting a college degree in ten years will be a good investment or a bad investment? *

A good investment 41 48 34 40 38 42 43 35 45 48 40 41 40 46 40 43 41A bad investment 30 29 30 32 34 27 27 33 29 27 33 35 26 26 31 28 31

Don’t know

29 23 35 28 27 30 30 33 26 25 27 25 35 28 29 30 28

ALL N=970GROUP B N=1031

*Reduced base sizes

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Most parents think a college degree will be more important for their children to have, but half do not think they will be able to afford it

15

56%26%

7%11% More important

No more or less important

Less important

Don't know

IF HAVE KIDS UNDER 18, do you think it will be more important, less important or no more or less important for your children to have a

college degree in ten years than it was for you? (N=354)

29%

50%

20%Yes

No

Don't know

IF HAVE KIDS UNDER 18, by the time they go to college, do you think you will be able to afford your children’s college education? (N=354)

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

IF HAVE KIDS UNDER 18, Do you think it will be more important, less important or no more or less important for your children to have a college degree in ten years than it was for you?*

More important 56 51 60 65 53 53 58 42 62 63 50 61 50 100 65 56 49No more or less important 26 32 22 23 23 24 31 35 18 26 29 21 33 0 17 27 32Less important 7 7 7 8 12 5 5 9 7 5 7 6 9 0 10 4 7

Don’t know11 10 11 5 13 18 6 14 12 5 14 11 8 0 7 13 12

IF HAVE KIDS UNDER 18, by the time they go to college, do you think you will be able to afford your children’s college education?*

Yes 29 49 18 37 16 29 36 21 20 51 40 27 25 0 30 29 29No 50 34 60 48 63 54 39 68 52 32 35 57 55 6 48 56 48

Don’t know

20 17 22 15 21 17 26 10 28 17 25 16 20 94 23 15 23

ALL

*Reduced base sizes

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64% think that it will be difficult for their children to find jobs in 10 years

16

IF HAVE CHILDREN UNDER 18 LIVING AT HOME, in ten years, will it be easy or difficult for your children to find good jobs?

9% 16% 38% 26% 10%

Very easy Somewhat easy Somewhat difficult Very difficult Don't know

In 2024

ALL, N=675

IF HAVE CHILDREN UNDER 18 LIVING AT HOME, in ten years, will it be easy or difficult for your children to find good jobs? *

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Very easy 9 15 6 11 7 7 13 6 6 17 12 9 8 0 11 8 9

Somewhat easy 16 20 14 10 14 16 23 14 18 18 23 14 12 25 19 16 15

Somewhat difficult 38 34 41 36 39 43 34 36 38 42 33 41 37 71 37 45 34

Very difficult 26 21 29 30 29 25 21 31 29 17 22 28 27 0 26 23 28

Don’t know

10 10 11 13 12 9 9 13 9 7 10 8 15 4 7 8 15

*Reduced base sizes

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60% of parents think their kids will be better off in 10 years than they were at the same age

17

60%21%

18%

Parents N=354

Yes

No

Don't know

IF PARENTS: In ten years, do you think your children will be better off than you were at their age?

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Yes 60 72 54 72 61 51 6 59 56 65

No 21 18 23 12 21 26 94 24 23 18

Don't know 18 10 23 15 18 22 0 17 21 18

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About half say they were better off financially 10 years ago and will be better off 10 years from now

18

Ten years ago, were you better off or worse off financially than you are today?

In ten years, do you expect to be better off or worse off financially than you are today?

52% 48%31% 26%

16%26%

Better off Worse off Don't know

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=1031

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Ten years ago, were you better off or worse off financially than you are today?*

Better off 52 50 54 40 55 52 62 48 60 49

Worse off 31 31 32 37 28 33 26 36 28 30

Don't know 16 19 14 23 17 15 12 16 12 21

In ten years, do you expect to be better off or worse off financially than you are today?*

Better off 48 52 44 60 54 46 31 49 45 50

Worse off 26 23 28 18 20 27 42 25 29 23

Don't know 26 25 27 22 26 28 28 26 26 26

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48% do not expect to retire in 10 years, and 45% don’t expect to be on a path to retirement

19

ALL N=1031

42%

48%

9%

Yes

No

Don't know

In ten years, do you think you will be retired?

38%

45%

17%

Yes

No

Don't know

IF NOT RETIRED, in ten years, do you think you will be on a path to affording retirement?

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

In ten years, do you think you will be retired? *

Yes 42 44 40 46 45 44 35 44 43 38 7 21 54 93 45 47 36

No 48 48 49 44 48 45 56 43 51 52 87 70 30 4 42 47 55

Don’t know 9 8 11 10 7 11 9 13 6 10 6 9 16 2 13 6 9

IF NOT RETIRED, in ten years, do you think you will be on a path to affording retirement? *

Yes 38 45 31 41 32 30 52 29 36 59 34 38 35 48 37 40 38

No 45 38 51 40 56 46 36 50 51 27 52 47 47 31 43 48 44

Don’t know17 16 18 18 12 23 12 21 14 14 14 15 18 21 20 13 18

*Reduced base sizes

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46% think they will be able to afford regular vacations 10 years from now

20

59%44% 46%

33%48%

33%8% 8%

21%

Yes No Don't know ALL

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=1031

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Ten years ago, were you able to afford to go on regular vacations?*

Yes 59 66 53 33 59 62 84 55 70 54

No 33 26 40 52 34 30 15 37 27 35

Don't know 8 9 7 14 8 8 1 8 4 11

Are you able to afford to go on regular vacations currently?*

Yes 44 51 37 40 46 42 48 42 48 42

No 48 38 58 46 44 52 49 50 49 46

Don't know 8 11 5 14 10 5 3 8 3 13

In ten years, do you think you will be able to afford to go on regular vacations?

Yes 46 50 41 49 54 40 39 49 49 40

No 33 29 36 35 26 32 44 30 32 36

Don't know 21 20 23 16 20 28 17 21 19 23

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Imagining 2024:America as “The Indispensable Nation” will become

“A More Dispensable Nation”

21

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30% think the U.S.’s global standing will be on the rise in 10 years

22

All

Political Affiliation

D R I

On the rise 30 38 27 27

In decline 43 36 49 45

Don’t know 26 27 24 28

AMERICA’S GLOBAL STANDINGDo you think America’s global standing will be on the rise or in decline in ten years? (Showing All)

30% 43% 26%In 2024

• 38% of Democrats are optimistic about America’s global standing in 2024 while 49% of Republics are not

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68% name China as a superpower in 2024, while 44% name the U.S.

23

All

Income Gender Age Political Affiliation

<$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

China 68 66 65 79 72 65 60 68 68 81 74 70 63

United States 44 44 40 48 47 40 41 42 45 49 50 43 38

Russia 43 43 41 48 48 39 34 37 46 59 39 51 41

Japan 21 21 20 21 21 21 23 24 21 14 24 16 23

United Kingdom/England 13 11 15 14 14 13 18 14 12 10 15 11 14

Germany 9 11 7 10 10 8 12 7 7 11 9 8 9

India 9 7 7 13 11 7 7 8 7 16 11 5 10

SUPERPOWERS IN 2024Which countries do you think will be considered “superpowers” in

ten years? Please name as many countries as you think apply.

68% 44% 43% 21% 13%

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Americans predict close alliances with European countries, Canada and Japan in 2024

24

Which countries do you think will be the United States’ closest allies in ten years? Please name as many as you think apply.

All

Income Gender Age Political Affiliation

<$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

United Kingdom / England 50 42 49 63 55 45 36 43 51 78 54 54 44

Canada 27 20 24 39 33 22 20 27 27 37 26 31 26

France 16 16 16 17 15 17 15 15 14 24 22 14 13

Japan 13 12 13 16 17 10 13 14 13 15 14 12 14

Germany 12 9 11 20 13 12 7 8 11 28 17 11 9

China 10 12 9 7 13 7 19 12 6 4 10 7 14

Israel 9 8 9 12 12 7 6 5 10 18 8 15 6

50% 27% 16% 13% 12%

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IMAGINING 202443% name Russia as a U.S. adversary in 10 years

25

Which countries do you think will be the United States’ main adversaries in ten years. Please name as many as you think apply.

All

Income Gender Age Political Affiliation

<$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Russia 43 37 40 55 47 38 27 37 47 64 41 51 37

China 35 33 35 40 40 30 33 32 33 45 33 38 34

Iran 20 18 18 28 26 15 12 19 22 28 20 23 17

North Korea 15 18 12 17 21 10 14 13 17 17 16 16 14

Iraq 11 10 12 13 10 13 11 10 14 7 11 12 11

Afghanistan 7 7 7 6 5 8 4 7 8 7 7 8 5

43% 35% 20% 15% 11%

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Most say China will be a main economic competitor in 10 years

26

AMEICA’S ECONOMIC COMPETITORSWhich country do you think will be the United States’ main economic competitors in ten years? Please name as many as you think apply.

India

Russia

Japan

China

7

19

34

74

12

21

27

79

18

26

31

85

11

22

30

78

All High Income Mid Income Low Income

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Most say China will be the world’s biggest economic force in 10 years

27

All

Income Gender Age Political Affiliation

<$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

China 53 49 51 63 59 47 50 52 50 64 53 58 49

United States 20 22 18 18 20 20 20 18 21 19 22 17 20

Which country do you think will be the world’s biggest economic force in ten years?

Which country do you think will be the United States’ main economic competitors in ten years? Please name as many as you

think apply.

All

Income Gender Age Political Affiliation

<$35k $35k-$75k $75k+ M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

China 78 74 79 85 82 74 71 76 77 92 80 80 75

Japan 30 34 27 31 31 30 29 28 33 32 34 27 30

Russia 22 19 21 26 25 20 28 21 20 21 17 26 24

India 11 7 12 18 14 9 7 9 11 20 12 12 11

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54% think Russia will have expanded geographically and 58% think it will have increased global influence by 2024

28

Yes54%

No24%

Don't know22%

All

In ten years, do you think Russia will have expanded geographically?

More58%

Less18%

Don't know24%

All

In ten years, do you think Russia will have more or less influence in world affairs?

71% of 65+ vs. 46% of 18-29 year olds think Russia will have expanded by 2024

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12% are optimistic for lasting peace in the Middle East by 2024

29

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Yes 12 11 13 16 14 10 8 13 13 11

No 68 76 61 58 66 72 78 68 74 64

Don’t know 20 13 25 25 21 18 14 19 13 25

Do you think that there will be a lasting peace between Israel and its neighbors in the Middle East in ten years?

Yes12%

No68%

Don't know20%

ALL

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38% think the U.S.-Israel alliance will be stronger in 10 years

30

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Stronger 38 39 37 32 38 36 49 42 42 31

Weaker 29 33 26 31 28 31 26 27 30 31

Don’t know 33 28 37 38 34 33 24 31 28 38

Do you think the alliance between the United States and Israel will be stronger or weaker in ten years?

In 2024 38% 29% 33%

Stronger Weaker Don't knowALL

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45% think the U.S. will have engaged in armed conflict with Iran by 2024

31

Showing “Yes”

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Iran 45 48 43 44 52 46 36 40 51 45

Russia 31 28 34 44 40 29 7 29 30 34

China 19 19 20 25 24 18 6 20 17 21

ARMED CONFLICT WITH THE USIn the next ten years, do you think the United States will have engaged in armed conflict with any of the following countries? (Showing Yes)

45% 31% 19%

ALL

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57% think there will be another major terrorist attack in the U.S. within 10 years

32

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Yes 57 58 56 45 59 58 67 52 64 56

No 18 21 14 29 19 14 9 17 17 20

Don’t know 25 20 30 27 22 28 24 32 19 25

Do you think there will be another major terrorist attack on American soil in the next ten years?

Yes57%

No18%

Don't know25%

ALL

Yes45%

No29%

Don't know27%

18-29 year olds

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

55% think there will be less peace in the world 10 years from now

33

22% 55% 23%In 2024

WORLD PEACEIn ten years, do you think there will be more or less peace around

the world than there is today?

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

More peace 22 23 21 28 27 17 15 27 14 23

Less peace 55 57 54 53 54 56 61 48 67 53

Don’t know 23 20 25 19 19 27 24 25 18 24

ALL

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IMAGINING 2024

Imagining 2024:The future of our ability to govern ourselves is in

deep doubt

34

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IMAGINING 202433% say Americans will be more unified in 10 years

35

More unified49%

Less unified32%

Don't know19%

UNITY IN 2004Do you think Americans were more or less unified as a

people ten years ago than we are today?

(Showing All)

More unified33%

Less unified41%

Don't know26%

UNITY IN 2024Do you think Americans will be more or less unified as a

people in ten years than we are today?

(Showing All)

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IMAGINING 202454% think the government will be bigger in 10 years

36

Ten Years Ago

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Bigger 24 30 18 25 29 23 17 27 23 23

Smaller 51 53 49 47 45 51 65 42 61 50

Don’t know 25 17 33 29 26 26 18 31 16 27

54%

24%

18%

51%

29%

25%

Bigger Smaller Don't know

Ten Years Ago

In Ten Years

Do you think the size of government was bigger or smaller ten years ago than it is today?

Do you think the size of government will be bigger or smaller in ten years than it is today?

In Ten Years

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Bigger 54 55 52 53 58 49 57 50 59 52

Smaller 18 22 14 20 17 20 13 19 17 18

Don’t know 29 23 34 28 25 31 30 31 25 30

Showing All

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

32% think the government will be more effective in 10 years

37

Do you think the American government was more or less effective ten years ago than it is now?

Do you think the American government will be more or less effective in ten years than it is now?

Do you think the American government will be more or less effective in ten years than it is now?

All

Race Political Affiliation

White African-American Hispanic D R I

More effective 32 29 42 44 40 30 28

Less effective 35 37 23 37 26 38 40

Don't know 33 35 35 19 34 32 32

In 2004 In 2024

45% 32%

36%35%

19%33%

Don't knowLess effectiveMore effective

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Americans are most likely to say the country has made progress on alternative energy, gone backward on debt over the past 10 years

38

Alternative energy sources

Homeland security and terrorism

Healthcare

Defense and national security

Energy independence

The environment

Transportation and infrastructure

Economic growth and job creation

Education

Foreign policy

Size of government

Government regulation

Traditional family values

Income inequality

The federal budget and national debt

Rising costs of college education

Taxes

40%

39%

33%

30%

29%

27%

25%

23%

20%

18%

15%

14%

14%

13%

12%

12%

10%

18%

23%

46%

29%

25%

28%

29%

44%

42%

35%

39%

43%

51%

40%

60%

56%

49%

Made progress

Gone backward

When it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States has made progress, gone backward or has there been no change in the past ten years?

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IMAGINING 2024

Americans most likely to expect progress on energy, going backward on debt over the next 10 years, too

39

Alternative energy sources

Energy independence

Homeland security and terrorism

Defense and national security

Healthcare

Transportation and infrastructure

Economic growth and job creation

The environment

Education

Foreign policy

The federal budget and national debt

Income inequality

Government regulation

Traditional family values

Size of government

Rising costs of college education

Taxes

41%

37%

36%

34%

32%

31%

30%

30%

26%

23%

21%

20%

18%

18%

17%

16%

15%

17%

18%

20%

21%

29%

19%

26%

21%

25%

25%

37%

27%

28%

35%

25%

35%

34%

Made progress

Gone backward

When it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States will have made progress, will have gone backward, or will there have been no change in the next ten years?

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IMAGINING 2024

Democrats much more optimistic for progress on key issues in 10 years than Republicans

40

Showing “Made Progress,” ranked by All

All

Income Age Political Affiliation

<35k 35k-75k 75k+ 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Alternative energy sources 41 39 40 47 35 40 41 49 49 37 36

Energy independence 37 36 33 46 30 40 37 42 45 34 33

Homeland security and terrorism 36 36 32 40 34 38 34 39 43 33 32

Defense and national security 34 35 30 36 34 36 29 40 42 31 30

Healthcare 32 33 29 34 33 34 30 31 46 22 27

Transportation and infrastructure 31 28 33 31 27 35 28 36 41 24 27

Economic growth and job creation 30 28 30 32 32 28 28 36 38 30 23

The environment 30 30 28 35 28 32 31 28 40 24 27

Education 26 26 23 26 30 29 22 25 33 22 23

Foreign policy 23 20 22 27 23 23 21 25 31 19 19

The federal budget and national debt

21 19 17 26 22 22 18 22 29 18 15

Income inequality 20 18 18 26 20 25 18 20 30 19 13

Government regulation 18 15 16 23 19 22 15 17 23 17 14

Traditional family values 18 19 17 19 19 24 17 11 24 16 15

Size of government 17 15 16 23 15 23 16 12 22 15 14

Rising costs of college education 16 19 13 16 17 24 13 11 19 14 16

Taxes 15 16 12 17 14 22 13 9 19 13 13

When it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States will have made progress, will have gone backward, or will there have been no change in the next ten years?

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Older American are particularly likely to foresee the U.S. going backward on the cost of college education in 10 years

41

Showing “Gone Backward,” ranked by All

All

Income Age Political Affiliation

<35k 35k-75k 75k+ 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

The federal budget and national debt

37 36 39 35 33 36 38 41 23 43 43

Rising costs of college education 35 31 35 38 26 30 38 46 27 40 36

Traditional family values 35 35 39 33 28 32 37 45 27 44 36

Taxes 34 34 37 33 29 33 37 37 24 45 35

Healthcare 29 29 30 29 21 30 31 32 14 40 32

Government regulation 28 28 28 29 22 27 31 34 16 38 31

Income inequality 27 26 28 28 22 24 28 35 18 30 32

Economic growth and job creation

26 28 24 26 19 31 27 24 15 30 32

Foreign policy 25 23 27 26 25 23 25 31 15 32 29

Education 25 23 26 28 19 26 28 28 18 29 29

Size of government 25 23 27 28 20 21 27 34 14 33 29

The environment 21 24 18 21 21 20 20 24 16 22 23

Defense and national security 21 21 19 22 16 21 22 22 12 25 24

Homeland security and terrorism 20 21 22 18 17 21 20 24 12 26 23

Transportation and infrastructure 19 18 19 20 15 21 19 21 12 23 22

Energy independence 18 19 19 18 17 18 18 21 11 23 20

Alternative energy sources 17 16 18 15 21 17 14 16 10 20 20

When it comes to addressing each of the following issues, do you think that the United States will have made progress, will have gone backward, or will there have been no change in the next ten years?

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Americans think there will be more urgency in 2024 to solve issues related to economic growth, job creation, and debt

42

The fe

dera

l bud

get a

nd n

atio

nal d

ebt

Econo

mic

grow

th a

nd jo

b cr

eatio

n

Homel

and

secu

rity a

nd te

rroris

m

Energ

y ind

epen

denc

e

Health

care

Altern

ative

ene

rgy s

ourc

es

Educa

tion

The e

nviro

nmen

t

Defen

se a

nd n

atio

nal s

ecur

ity

Rising

costs

of c

olle

ge e

duca

tion

Forei

gn p

olicy

Taxes

Trans

porta

tion

and

infra

struc

ture

Inco

me

ineq

uality

Gover

nmen

t reg

ulat

ion

Tradi

tiona

l fam

ily va

lues

Size o

f gov

ernm

ent

64% 63%60% 59%

57% 57% 57%55% 55% 54% 53%

51%49%

47%45% 44%

39%

62%

67%

59%

65%

60%64%

59%

65%

55% 56% 57%54%

52%55%

43% 44%

32%

62% 63%66%

56%

61%

53% 53%

45%

60%

55% 55%51%

49%

39%

48% 48% 48%

ALLDemocratsRepublicans

Ten years from now, do you expect there to be more urgency or less urgency for the United States to address each of these issues than there is today?

Showing “More urgency”

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Younger Americans less concerned with debt/budget issues, more concerned with education, than older Americans

43

Ranked by AllAll

Income Age Political Affiliation

<35k 35k-75k 75k+ 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

The federal budget and national debt

35 37 33 39 27 32 40 43 30 39 37

Healthcare 34 32 32 35 34 32 38 27 31 36 35

Economic growth and job creation 29 30 29 29 25 30 30 30 27 29 30

Homeland security and terrorism 24 29 21 23 16 23 29 25 27 24 22

Defense and national security 22 24 21 21 20 18 26 23 18 32 18

Taxes 18 19 22 16 19 20 17 17 19 24 14

The environment 15 15 13 14 18 15 14 11 20 9 15

Income inequality 15 17 15 14 20 17 11 14 22 7 16

Energy independence 14 13 15 15 9 11 16 21 17 14 12

Education 13 11 17 12 23 13 10 7 16 9 14

Traditional family values 11 9 14 10 7 12 11 14 9 14 10

Foreign policy 10 8 11 12 14 10 9 9 11 9 11

Alternative energy sources 9 9 11 9 8 9 9 12 14 7 7

Government regulation 9 9 9 9 8 10 9 9 5 11 11

Size of government 9 6 10 12 6 10 9 10 3 12 11

Rising costs of college education 8 7 9 8 9 10 5 7 8 6 8

Transportation and infrastructure 6 4 6 7 6 5 5 7 6 3 7

What do you think will be the top three most important issues facing the United States in ten years? Please select up to three.

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Republicans and Democrats want progress on healthcare and economic growth in the next 10 years

44

Ranked by AllAll

Income Age Political Affiliation

<35k 35k-75k 75k+ 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Healthcare 32 36 30 29 28 33 36 28 34 31 32

Economic growth and job creation 30 31 26 33 25 32 31 31 28 36 27

The federal budget and national debt

25 25 26 27 19 22 26 38 23 32 23

Taxes 20 19 24 21 22 22 19 19 17 25 19

Education 17 14 22 16 26 18 15 10 21 12 18

Energy independence 16 14 15 19 9 12 18 26 20 14 14

Income inequality 16 18 17 12 16 18 14 17 21 9 18

The environment 15 17 12 15 18 14 13 13 19 9 15

Homeland security and terrorism 15 15 15 16 8 15 16 19 16 16 13

Traditional family values 15 14 16 16 13 15 17 16 13 21 12

Defense and national security 12 15 9 13 5 10 15 20 10 17 11

Alternative energy sources 10 11 10 9 5 13 11 7 14 6 9

Size of government 10 6 11 12 6 9 11 13 3 14 12

Rising costs of college education 10 9 10 9 19 10 6 6 11 8 10

Government regulation 7 4 9 7 8 7 7 5 4 8 8

Foreign policy 6 2 7 7 7 7 5 4 5 4 8

Transportation and infrastructure 6 8 3 9 4 6 6 10 9 3 7

On which issues would you most like to see progress made in the next ten years? Please select up to three.

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

18% think Obamacare will exist with only minor changes in 10 years

45

What do you think the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, will be like in ten years?

18%

35%

32%

15%

ALLIt will exist with only minor changesIt will exist but with major changes

It will no longer exist

Don't know

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

It will exist with only minor changes

18 18 17 17 18 19 16 19 17 18 18 16 16 22 29 7 16

It will exist but with major changes

35 43 27 30 34 36 39 30 37 38 27 34 36 46 34 35 36

It will no longer exist 32 25 38 34 30 33 32 35 30 32 38 32 33 24 23 46 29

Don’t know 15 13 17 20 18 12 14 16 15 12 17 18 16 9 13 13 19

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=1031

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 202435% think their healthcare will be better in 10 years

46

Do you think that the healthcare you will receive in ten years will be better or worse than the healthcare you receive now?

35% 37% 28%In 2024

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Better 35 35 34 33 37 39 27 27 36 42 27 39 33 41 45 36 26

Worse 37 43 32 36 35 37 41 35 41 40 37 37 41 30 23 49 40

Don’t know 28 22 34 31 27 25 33 38 23 18 36 24 26 29 33 14 35

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=970

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Americans are more likely to foresee a national health care program than a private health care system in 10 years

47

In ten years, do you think the United States will have a national health care program supplied to everyone by the government

instead of a private health care system?

38%

27%

36%

ALL

National healthcare

Private healthcare

Don't know

*Reduced base sizes

Among Group B

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

National healthcare 38 41 35 35 40 38 36 37 41 36 40 40 37 33 41 29 42

Private healthcare 27 29 25 36 23 24 29 25 25 35 20 27 26 37 25 38 20

Don’t know 36 31 40 29 37 38 35 38 34 30 40 33 38 31 34 33 39

ALL N=1031

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

77% believe they will have less privacy from the government in 10 years, and 58% see that as a bad thing

48

PRIVACY FROM US GOVERNMENTIn ten years, do you expect to have more or less privacy from the U.S. government than you do today? (Showing All)

10%

77%

13%

In 2024

20%

58%

22%In 2024

PRIVACY ON SOCIETYOverall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing? (Showing All)

AllAge Political Affiliation

18-29 65+ D R I

Privacy from the U.S. government in 2024

More privacy 10 14 4 9 15 8Less privacy 77 73 83 76 75 78Don't know 13 13 13 15 9 14

Will that be a good thing or a bad thing?

Good thing 20 23 21 29 20 13Bad thing 58 59 55 49 62 63Don't know 22 18 24 23 17 24

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

49

51 49 57 5633

74 71 73 77 75

35 37 31 2948

13 14 17 9 15

10 YEARS FROM NOW

Currently, do you think there are cameras watching you most of the time?

In ten years, do you think there will be cameras watching you most of the time?

CURRENTLY

No

Yes

All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+

74% think there will be cameras watching them most of the time in 2024

29%

45%

26%

Good thing Bad thing Don't know

In 2024

Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing? (Showing All)

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IMAGINING 2024

50

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Safer 42 47 36 35 47 42 40 44 39 42

Less safe 31 29 32 37 30 27 31 27 37 28

Don’t know 28 24 32 27 23 32 29 29 24 30

Do you think that the government’s surveillance of electronic communications and cellphone records will make the country safer or less safe ten years from now than it is today?

42% 31% 28%In 2024

42% say the government’s electronic surveillance will make the country safer in 10 years

ALL

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IMAGINING 2024

51

Do you think there will be more or less gun violence in America in ten years than there is now?

58% think there will be more gun violence in the next ten years, as well as more gun law in the next ten years

58%18%

23%ALL

More gun violence

Less gun violence

Don't know

Do you think there will be more or fewer gun control laws in the United States in ten years?

58%20%

22%ALL

More gun laws

Fewer gun laws

Don't know

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Do you think there will be more or less gun violence in America in ten years than there is now?

More gun violence 58 57 60 51 58 62 60 63 53 58

Less gun violence 18 22 15 27 20 14 12 15 25 16

Don't know 23 21 25 22 22 24 27 22 22 26

Do you think there will be more or fewer gun control laws in the United States in ten years?

More gun laws 58 59 56 58 63 53 58 57 61 56

Fewer gun laws 20 22 18 21 17 21 22 23 20 18

Don't know 22 19 26 21 20 26 20 20 19 26

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IMAGINING 2024

52

63%

50% 45%37% 34%

17%

Which of the following gun control measures do you think will be the law in ten years? Choose as many as you think will be the law. (Showing All)

63% think background checks for all gun sales will be the law by 2024

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Background checks for all gun sales 63 63 63 56 64 63 71 61 67 62

Assault weapons ban 50 50 50 40 50 48 65 52 50 48

Ban on sales of high-capacity/extended ammunition magazines 45 45 46 34 43 48 58 45 47 44

Armed guards in schools 37 37 37 30 40 39 39 36 36 38

Increased investment in mental health programs 34 34 34 36 36 32 32 36 31 35

Don't know 17 15 18 23 14 19 10 17 13 20

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

62% believe that poverty will be more prevalent in 2024 than it is today

53

62%

34%

16%

48%

22%

18%

More prevalent Less prevalent Don't know

Ten Years Ago

In Ten Years

PREVALENCE OF POVERTY

Do you think poverty was more prevalent or less prevalent in the U.S. ten years ago than it is today? (Showing All)

Do you think poverty will be more prevalent or less prevalent in the U.S. in ten years than it is today? (Showing All)

66% of those aged 30-44 years believe that poverty will be more prevalent in

2024, compared to just 52% of Millennials

Poverty Prevalence in 2024All

Age

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+

More prevalent 62 52 66 61 71

Less prevalent 16 22 17 14 10

Don’t know 22 26 18 25 19

Older audiences more so than Millennials believe that poverty will be more prevalent in 2024 with 71% of those over 65 years old and 66% of those aged 30-44 years agreeing

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IMAGINING 2024

54

Nothing major is likely to happen

in reaction to income inequal-

ity

Tax reform to redistribute

wealth

Large scale street demonstrations

Restrictions on executive pay

Don't know Other

34%29%

24% 23%18%

2%

31%

37%

27% 27%

16%

1%

39%

26%22% 22%

14%

2%

32%

25% 23%19%

24%

2%

All Democrat Republican Independent

Which of the following do you think will happen in the next ten years in reaction to income inequality in the United States? You can select multiple responses if necessary.

34% think nothing major will happen in the next 10 years in reaction to income inequality

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IMAGINING 2024

55

Do you think race relations in America were better or worse ten years ago than they are now? (Showing All)

40% think race relations in America have gotten better in the past 10 years, and 46% think they will be better in 2024

40%

36%

25%Better Worse

Don't know

Do you think race relations in America will be better or worse in ten years than they are now? (Showing All)

46%

28%

26%Better Worse

Don't know

AllGender Race Political Affiliation

M F White Black Hispanic Other D R I

Do you think race relations in America were better or worse ten years ago than they are now?

Better 40 42 38 39 43 42 37 35 44 40

Worse 36 37 34 36 35 41 29 40 36 32

Don't know 25 21 28 26 23 17 34 25 20 28

Do you think race relations in America will be better or worse in ten years than they are now?

Better 46 48 44 45 42 57 38 51 47 40

Worse 28 30 26 28 32 25 28 21 31 31

Don't know 26 22 30 27 26 18 34 28 21 29

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

30% think Congress will be more effective in 2024 than in 2014

56

More ef-fective

44%

Less ef-fective

33%

Don't know23%

ALL

Do you think the US Congress was more or less effective ten years ago than it is today?

More ef-fective

30%

Less effective38%

Don't know32%

ALL

Do you think the US Congress will be more or less effective ten years from now than it is today?

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

59% say they are more likely to vote in 2024 than today

57

Ten years ago, were you more or less likely to vote than you are today?

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

More likely 49 53 45 37 49 54 56 46 58 45

Less likely 32 29 34 38 36 26 28 34 26 34

Don’t know 19 18 20 24 15 20 16 20 16 21

In ten years, do you think you will be more or less likely to vote than you are today?

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

More likely 59 58 61 49 60 61 69 67 71 44

Less likely 20 20 19 25 21 17 16 16 14 28

Don’t know 21 22 20 26 19 23 15 18 15 28

59%49%

60% 61%69%

More Likely to Vote in 2024 than 2014

ALL 18-29 y/o 30-44 y/o 45-64 y/o 65+ y/o

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IMAGINING 202443% say their vote will matter more in 2024

58

Ten years ago, do you think your vote mattered more or matter less than it does today?

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

More 43 46 41 32 43 46 53 41 52 39

Less 27 28 27 32 30 27 19 30 26 26

Don’t know 29 26 32 36 28 27 28 29 21 36

In ten years, do you think your vote will matter more or matter less than it does today?

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

More 39 38 40 31 41 40 43 49 39 30

Less 33 35 31 32 32 34 35 23 38 39

Don’t know 28 27 29 36 27 26 22 28 24 31

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

67% predict that money will be more of a dominant force in politics in ten years than today

59

Do you think money was more or less of a dominant force in American politics ten years ago than it is today?

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

More of a force 41 43 39 43 44 40 34 44 41 38

Less of a force 40 39 41 32 38 40 54 36 43 41

Don’t know 19 18 20 25 18 20 12 20 16 21

Do you think money will be more or less of a dominant force in American politics in ten years than it is today?

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

More of a force 67 67 66 60 66 69 73 67 68 65

Less of a force 13 14 12 16 17 12 7 13 12 14

Don’t know 20 19 21 24 17 20 20 19 20 21

More of a force67%

Less of a force13%

Don't know20%

ALL

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IMAGINING 2024

60

All Democrat Republican Independent

58%68% 63%

45%

19% 14% 18% 24%23% 17% 19%31%

Yes No Don't know

A majority say the two party system will still dominate in 10 years, and 31% think the Republican Party will attract more minorities

Do you think the two political party system (Republicans and Democrats) will still be dominant in ten years?

All Democrat Republican Independent

31%22%

41%30%34%

54%

23% 27%35%

24%36%

43%

More African Americans and Latino voters Fewer African Americans and Latino voters Don't know

Do you think the Republican Party in ten years will attract more or fewer African America and Latino voters than it does now?

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All Democrat Republican Independent

25%16%

38%

22%

42%

57%

34% 35%33%27% 29%

43%

More Less Don't know

42% think the Tea Party will be less of a political force in 10 years

Do you think the Tea Party will be more or less of a force in American politics in ten years?

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Imagining 2024:A new social issue consensus is emerging

62

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73%

15%

12%Yes No

Don't know

Showing All

Legalizing Same Sex Marriage

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Yes 73 67 78 66 73 74 79 78 68 73

No 15 20 11 21 16 13 10 13 20 13

Don’t know 12 13 11 13 10 13 11 9 12 14

In ten years, do you think same sex marriage will be legal in the majority of U.S. states?

Most believe same-sex marriage and marijuana will be legal in most states by 2024

In ten years, do you think marijuana will be legal in the majority of U.S. states?

66%

21%

13%Yes No

Don't know

Showing All

Legalizing Marijuana

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Yes 66 62 69 57 67 68 70 70 57 69

No 21 24 18 26 24 17 18 19 28 17

Don’t know 13 14 13 16 9 15 12 10 15 15

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FAMILY VALUES SINCE 2004Do you think the definition of family values has changed in the

United States over the past ten years? (Showing All)

FAMILY VALUES CHANGINGDo you think the definition of family values will change in the

United States over the next ten years? (Showing All)

62% believe the definition of family values will change a little in the next 10 years

All

57%

23%

11% 9%

Yes - a great deal

Yes - but only a little

No - it hasn't changed

Don't know

All

11%

62%

7%

20%

No - it won't change

Yes - but only a lit-tle

No- it hasn't changed

Don't know

Family Values Changing Since 2004 All

Gender

Male Female

Yes – a great deal 57 53 62

Yes – but only a little 23 26 21

No – it hasn’t changed 11 13 9

Don't know 9 9 9

Family Values Changing in 2024 All

Gender

Male Female

No – it won't change 11 10 12

Yes – but only a little 62 64 60

No – it hasn’t changed 7 7 7

Don't know 20 18 22

Females think the definition of family values has changed over the past ten years more than males do

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54% expect climate change to affect them more in 10 years

65

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARSIn 10 years, do you think the effects of climate change will affect you more or less than they do today?

54%

20%

26%

Will affect me more Will affect me less Don't know

ALL

Extreme temperatures

More severe storms

Severe droughts

Melting polar ice caps

Food shortages

Extinction of species, such

as polar bears

Coastal communities under water

Don't know

75%

72%

63%

60%

50%

46%

43% 3%

ALL

MOST OBVIOUS EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN 10 YEARSWhich of the effects of climate change will be more obvious in 10 years?

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Most believe there will be more droughts, forest fires, superstorms and tsunamis in 10 years

Droughts Forest fires Superstorms, like Sandy Tsunamis

66% 66% 65%

52%

13% 14% 13% 15%21% 21% 22%

33%

More Less Don’t know

In ten years, do you think there will be more or less of the following? (Showing All)

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All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+

54%39%

48%60%

68%

27%41%

33%19% 17%19% 20% 19% 21% 15%

Do you think Americans will be having fewer children ten years from now than they are having today?

Most think that Americans will be having fewer children in 2024 and that they will be raised worse than they are now

All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+

21%29% 23% 18% 15%

54%47%

56% 53%61%

25% 24% 20%29% 24%

Do you think children in the United States will be raised better or worse in ten years than they are now?

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According to Americans, a gay president is the least likely to be elected by 2024

68

US LEADER BY 2024Ten years from now, do you think the United States will have elected the following? (Showing % saying ‘Yes’)

All Male Female Democrat Republican Independent

14% 13% 15% 16%10%

16%

67% 67% 68%78%

58%66%

31% 33% 30% 32% 30% 32%30% 29% 32%37%

28% 27%

A gay president A female president A Hispanic president An African American president

Most think the U.S. will elect a female president in the next 10 years

US Leaders by 2024 All

Age Race

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ White African-American Hispanic

A female president 67 64 68 67 73 68 64 70

A Hispanic president 31 34 33 27 34 28 23 59

An African-American president )other than President Obama)

30 39 38 23 22 26 43 42

A gay president 14 20 19 8 11 13 15 20

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44% think Spanish will be more widely spoken than English in the U.S. in 10 years

Spanish Chinese Japanese French German Don't know

60%

16%3% 2% 2%

18%

54%

19%

3% 2% 3%

19%

65%

14%3% 1% 1%

17%

All Male Female

Which of the following non-English languages do you think it will be most useful to know in ten years?

In ten years, do you think Spanish will be more widely spoken than English in the United States?

44%

38%

18%

Yes No Don't know

In 2024

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Which generation do you think has the most influence over the country today?

Ten years from now, which generation do you expect to have more influence over the country?

27%

9%

42% 36%

16%

38%

15% 17%

Baby Boomers Generation X Millennials Don't know

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Which generation do you think has the most influence over the country today?

Baby Boomers 27 27 27 18 23 32 36 29 26 26

Generation X 42 41 44 35 48 41 45 44 47 38

Millennials 16 17 15 34 16 10 6 14 14 19

Don't know 15 15 15 13 14 17 13 13 13 17

Ten years from now, which generation do you expect to have more influence over the country?

Baby Boomers 9 8 10 6 6 11 13 12 11 5

Generation X 36 37 34 23 36 39 45 34 39 35

Millennials 38 39 37 54 41 30 29 39 36 39

Don't know 17 16 19 17 17 19 13 16 14 21

Americans are most likely to say Millennials and Generation X will have the most influence in 10 years

ALL

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68% expect college classes to be taught mostly online and 51% view this as a good thing

71

68%

12%

19%More than half

Less than half

Don't know

Ten years from now, how many college or university classes do you expect to be taught online vs. via teachers present in the same physical classroom?

51%

27%

23%Better

Worse

Don't know

IF EXPECT ONLINE COURSES, do you think online classes will make education better or worse than it is today?

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Ten years from now, how many college or university classes do you expect to be taught online vs. via teachers present in the same physical classroom?*

More than half 68 64 72 69 73 69 62 68 71 67 64 69 64 80 71 70 65Less than half 12 13 12 18 9 10 15 12 10 17 17 11 13 9 12 13 13

Don’t know

19 22 16 13 18 21 23 20 20 16 18 20 23 12 17 17 23IF EXPECT ONLINE COURSES, do you think online classes will make education better or worse than it is today?*

Better 51 57 45 52 51 45 58 56 49 47 57 56 43 49 45 46 60Worse 27 24 29 24 24 34 22 26 28 29 24 22 32 27 30 29 21

Don’t know

23 19 26 25 25 22 20 18 24 25 20 22 24 24 25 25 19

ALL N=1031

*Reduced base sizes

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Imagining 2024:The United States of Technology is in our future

72

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63% say technology has made their lives better and 60% think it will continue to do so in the next 10 years

73

63% 60%

16% 16%21% 24%

Better Worse Don't Know

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Since 2004, have personal technology advancements made your life better or worse?

Better 63 66 60 60 59 65 65 58 66 68 62 67 63 55 64 62 62Worse 16 16 16 16 14 17 16 16 16 16 15 14 15 23 14 19 15

Don’t know 21 18 24 24 28 18 18 26 18 16 23 19 22 22 22 19 23

In ten years, do you think that advancements in technology will make your life better or worse than it is today?

Better 60 63 56 57 57 61 61 57 63 64 61 62 58 58 62 64 54Worse 16 16 16 16 16 17 15 16 15 17 17 13 16 22 15 16 18

Don’t know 24 21 27 26 27 21 23 27 22 19 23 24 26 20 23 20 28

Ten years ago in 2004, Americans were using newly released iPods and iPod Minis to listen to music. Basic mobile phones without touchscreen or data capabilities were used primarily, and laptops were just beginning to

gain popularity over desktops. ALL

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Technology entrepreneurs are seen as most likely to be leaders in 10 years

74

In ten years, which groups of people will be considered leaders in our so-ciety? Please choose any that apply.

44% 37% 34%23% 20% 16% 22%

Technology entrepreneursPolitical figuresBusiness leadersCelebritiesPhilanthropic leadersAthletesNone of the above

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

In ten years, which groups of people will be considered leaders in our society? Please choose any that apply. (Multiple responses permitted)

Technology entrepreneurs 44 43 45 33 45 46 53 47 43 43

Political figures 37 36 38 38 34 37 39 38 39 34

Business leaders 34 36 32 25 36 32 45 35 37 30

Celebrities 23 22 25 30 30 15 20 22 25 23

Philanthropic leaders 20 19 21 17 18 19 29 28 19 14

Athletes 16 19 14 17 20 13 17 18 17 14

None of the above 22 21 23 23 23 24 16 19 20 26

ALL

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41% think social media has made their lives better in the last 10 years, and 36% think it will make their lives better in the next 10 years

75

In 2004, Facebook had just been created, and the term "social media" had not been coined. Has social media made your life better or worse in the past ten years?

Do you think that social media will make your life better or worse in the next decade?

41% 36%24% 26%

35% 38%Better Worse Don't know

ALL

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

In 2004, Facebook had just been created, and the term "social media" had not been coined. Has social media made your life better or worse in the past ten years?

Better 41 36 45 36 49 40 35 43 45 35

Worse 24 30 19 31 21 22 26 21 24 28

Don't know 35 34 36 33 30 38 39 36 31 37

Do you think that social media will make your life better or worse in the next decade?

Better 36 36 36 39 42 33 31 40 38 32

Worse 26 29 23 30 25 24 26 22 28 27

Don't know 38 35 41 31 33 44 43 38 34 41

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44% believe technology communication will increase in the next decade, while face-to-face will decrease

76

Which method of communication do you prefer today?

Ten years from now, do you think you will opt to communicate face-to-face or via technology when

given the choice?

63%

41%29%

44%

9% 15%

Face-to-face Via technoogy Don't KnowALL

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Which method of communication do you prefer today?

Face-to-face 63 62 63 63 69 61 60 63 64 63 48 58 70 75 65 62 61

Via technology 29 30 28 30 24 30 30 26 30 31 38 35 22 22 27 32 28

Don’t know 9 8 9 8 7 9 10 10 6 5 14 8 8 4 8 6 11

Ten years from now, do you think will opt to communicate face-to-face or via technology when given the choice?

Face-to-face 41 40 42 39 44 41 39 39 42 40 41 39 40 45 43 38 41

Via technology 44 47 41 41 41 45 46 43 43 50 41 48 42 43 41 49 41

Don’t know 15 13 17 19 15 14 14 17 15 10 18 12 18 11 15 13 18

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Americans are most likely to think they will use smartphones, laptops, and tablets in 10 years

77

Smartphone

Laptop computer

Tablet Desktop computer

Electronic reading device

Smart watch

Google glass

Driverless car

75% 73% 66% 60% 52%35% 29% 26%

16% 17% 22% 32%36%

50% 54% 55%

10% 10% 12% 8% 13% 15% 16% 19%

Yes No Don't know

Do you think you will use the following technological devices in ten years?

ALL

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Millennials are most likely to envision themselves using various devices in 10 years

78

Do you think you will use the following technological devices in ten years?

Ranked by All, saying Yes

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Smartphone

Yes 75 77 72 77 71 72 79 67 81 83 78 83 75 55 75 74 75

No 16 14 18 15 18 16 14 21 12 12 11 11 15 32 16 17 15

Don’t know 10 9 10 8 11 12 7 12 8 5 11 6 10 13 9 9 10

Laptop computerYes 73 71 74 77 66 74 73 72 71 78 79 75 72 63 71 76 72No 17 19 15 15 22 15 16 16 20 14 14 17 15 24 17 16 17Don’t know 10 10 11 8 11 10 11 13 9 8 7 8 13 13 12 7 11

TabletYes 66 66 66 66 64 67 67 57 71 77 67 73 65 56 69 65 64No 22 21 22 26 23 20 20 29 20 14 21 19 20 30 18 24 23Don’t know 12 12 12 8 14 13 13 15 9 9 12 7 15 15 13 10 13

Desktop computerYes 60 63 57 58 60 58 65 59 61 58 60 60 58 64 62 63 56No 32 28 35 36 32 33 26 31 31 36 31 34 32 28 29 29 35Don’t know 8 8 9 6 8 10 9 10 8 7 9 7 10 8 9 8 9

Electronic reading device

Yes 52 50 54 59 49 50 52 47 57 55 54 55 53 42 54 53 49No 36 38 33 25 40 37 37 39 32 36 35 35 32 45 34 35 37Don’t know 13 12 13 16 11 13 11 15 11 9 12 10 15 13 12 11 14

Smart watchYes 35 41 29 36 24 38 38 28 37 39 44 37 34 20 34 33 36No 50 47 53 44 62 46 50 55 49 50 46 48 47 64 50 53 47Don’t know 15 12 18 20 14 16 12 17 14 11 10 15 19 16 16 13 16

Google glassYes 29 36 23 26 24 32 32 25 29 36 39 35 27 11 32 22 32No 54 49 59 58 63 49 52 59 56 51 46 51 53 73 54 62 49Don’t know 16 15 18 16 13 19 16 16 16 13 15 13 20 16 14 16 18

Driverless carYes 26 29 23 25 22 27 28 22 30 28 30 32 24 15 26 23 27No 55 53 58 55 61 53 54 60 53 54 47 55 55 67 52 60 55Don’t know 19 19 19 20 17 20 18 18 16 18 23 13 21 18 22 17 18

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Americans are most likely to think technology will make communication and work productivity better in 10 years

79

62% 61%49%

35% 35%18% 23% 24% 32% 26%20% 16% 27% 33% 39%

Ten years from now, do you think technology will be making each of the following better or worse?

Ranked by All

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

How productive you are at work

Better 62 66 59 65 59 66 57 56 62 73 56 64 64 64 64 68 56

Worse 18 17 19 18 20 18 16 19 18 16 23 18 16 16 14 18 21

The way you communicate with your friends and family

Better 61 64 57 62 65 57 62 61 60 65 58 63 60 62 61 67 55

Worse 23 19 27 23 21 27 19 19 28 24 24 22 23 25 23 22 24

The way you interact with colleagues at work

Better 49 57 43 48 49 52 47 49 46 56 51 57 47 40 51 50 48

Worse 24 19 28 22 22 26 23 18 29 25 28 22 23 23 23 26 23

The way you meet romantic partners

Better 35 39 32 35 31 38 36 33 38 37 38 41 34 26 35 36 35

Worse 32 29 34 36 28 34 29 30 33 32 39 30 27 35 32 32 31

The way you feel about yourself

Better 35 42 29 33 30 39 37 31 36 41 37 41 30 36 38 37 32

Worse 26 24 27 25 29 25 24 27 25 26 34 25 23 21 25 26 26

ALL

*Not showing “Don’t know”

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Most foresee robots, drones and “smart” medicine being widely used in 10 years

80

Do you think the following technology will be widely used in ten years?

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Robots

Yes59 63 55 55 59 60 59 53 63 61 54 56 60 68 58 59 60

No23 24 23 24 25 20 26 23 22 28 31 28 19 15 25 23 22

Don’t know18 13 23 21 16 20 15 24 16 11 15 16 21 17 18 18 18

Drones

Yes70 78 62 67 70 71 69 62 71 77 68 63 74 73 69 75 65

No14 12 16 15 16 12 14 15 14 13 17 19 9 11 15 11 16

Don’t know16 10 22 19 14 16 18 23 15 10 15 18 16 16 16 14 19

Medicine capable of monitoring and reporting changes in the body

Yes60 64 56 61 59 57 65 54 64 64 57 59 61 64 64 60 56

No20 21 20 20 22 22 16 22 17 20 27 23 17 15 19 18 23

Don’t know20 16 24 19 19 21 19 24 18 15 16 19 23 21 17 22 21

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55% believe they will control all of the electronics and appliances in their houses through one device in 10 years

81

38%55%

36%23%26% 22%

Yes No Don't Know

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Do you think the technological device you will use most often ten years from now has been invented yet?

Yes 38 41 35 32 37 42 37 35 40 39 42 43 37 26 35 41 37No 36 36 37 41 38 34 36 33 39 41 30 37 33 51 39 37 34

Don’t know

26 23 28 27 25 24 27 32 21 20 28 20 30 23 26 22 28Do you think you will be controlling all of the electronics and appliances in your house with one device in ten years?

Yes 55 58 53 55 53 56 57 51 58 61 59 58 53 51 59 55 53No 23 23 22 15 27 24 22 21 23 25 23 21 22 27 20 24 24

Don’t know

22 19 25 31 20 20 21 28 19 14 18 21 25 22 22 21 23

ALL

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73% expect companies to collect more information in 10 years, and 56% think that will be bad thing The older Americans are, the more likely they are to believe companies will collect more information in the

future

82

INFORMATION COLLECTION BY PRIVATE COMPANYIn ten years, do you expect private companies to collect more or less

information about you than they do today? (Showing All)

73%

12%

15%

In 2024

18%

56%

26%

In 2024

INFORMATION COLLECTION ON SOCIETYOverall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing? (Showing

All)

AllAge

18-29 30-44 45-64 65+

In ten years, do you expect private companies to collect more or less information about you than they do today?

More information 73 54 75 79 83Less information 12 20 11 10 7

Don't know 15 26 14 11 10

Overall, will that be a good thing for our society or a bad thing?

Good thing 18 14 26 15 16Bad thing 56 54 54 61 53Don't know 26 32 20 24 31

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80% say they have not had their identity stolen online, and 22% think it will happen in the next 10 years

83

Have you had your personal information stolen online? Ten years from now do you think you will have had your personal information stolen online?

12% 22%

80%

41%

8%

37%

Yes No Don't know

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=1031

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Have you had your personal information stolen online?*

Yes 12 12 12 14 17 11 4 14 11 12

No 80 80 80 77 75 80 91 77 82 81

Don't know 8 9 7 8 8 9 5 9 8 7

Ten years from now do you think you will have had your personal information stolen online?*

Yes 22 22 22 23 25 22 14 24 18 24

No 41 45 37 50 41 33 43 40 44 38

Don't know 37 34 41 27 34 44 43 37 38 38

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51% think wars in 2024 will be mostly fought with remotely-controlled machines like drones

84

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Yes 27 30 25 29 28 25 27 26 29 26

No 51 53 50 50 54 50 53 54 50 51

Don’t know 22 17 26 21 18 26 20 20 20 23

In ten years, do you expect wars to be fought mostly with soldiers or with remotely-controlled machines (such as drones and

robots)?

In 2024 27% 51% 22%

Soldiers Machines Don't knowALL

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85

ALLN=1031

Ten years from now, do you think your job could be replaced by machines?

Do you think you will need additional education to be steadily employed in ten years?

33%

58%47%

23%21% 19%

Yes No Don't Know

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Ten years from now, do you think your job could be replaced by machines? *

Yes 33 32 33 38 33 29 32 40 27 30 40 37 29 25 35 30 33

No 47 50 44 37 52 49 46 37 55 54 42 49 46 50 40 52 49

Don’t know 21 18 23 24 15 22 22 24 19 17 18 14 25 25 26 18 18

Do you think you will need additional education to be steadily employed in ten years? *

Yes 58 60 57 67 61 54 55 60 61 57 60 53 54 73 58 58 59

No 23 24 22 13 21 25 29 19 22 29 20 27 23 20 20 25 23

Don’t know 19 16 22 21 18 21 16 20 17 14 21 20 23 8 22 17 18

*Reduced base sizes

33% think they jobs could be replaced by machines in 10 years, and 58% think they will need additional education

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IMAGINING 2024

86

Imagining 2024:The way we will live

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52% who currently attend religious services expect to attend more frequently in the future

87

*Reduced base sizes

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Do you currently attend religious services frequently, at least sometimes or never?*

Frequently 19 19 20 18 19 21 17 19 31 11

At least sometimes 34 33 35 31 35 33 40 34 38 32

Never 38 40 37 37 38 39 40 41 26 45

Don't know 8 8 8 14 8 7 3 7 5 11

IF ATTENDED: In ten years, do you expect to attend religious services more frequently or less frequently than you do now?*

More frequently 52 52 51 53 51 59 37 51 50 55

Less frequently 22 30 16 26 27 18 20 16 28 21

Don't know 26 18 33 21 22 23 43 33 22 23

19%

34%

38%

8%ALL N=970

Frequently

At least some-times

Never

Don't know

Do you currently attend religious services frequently, at least sometimes or never?

52%

22%

26%

If Attended N=517

More frequently

Less frequently

Don't know

(If frequently or sometimes attended services) In ten years, do you expect to attend religious services more frequently or less frequently than you do

now?

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22%

56%

22%

More common

Less common

Don't know

Showing All

Do you think marriage in the United States will be more or less common ten years from now than it is today?

Do you think divorce in the United States will be more or less common ten years from now than it is today?

63%15%

22%More common

Less common

Don't know

Showing All

56% think marriage will be less common in 2024, and 63% think divorce will be more common

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Do you think marriage in the United States will be more or less common ten years from now than it is today?

More common 22 24 20 28 28 17 15 25 23 19

Less common 56 55 56 47 50 59 67 51 61 54

Don't know 22 21 24 25 22 24 18 23 16 27

Do you think divorce in the United States will be more or less common ten years from now than it is today?

More common 63 63 64 66 63 61 64 63 63 64

Less common 15 16 15 14 16 15 16 15 18 13

Don't know 22 22 21 20 21 24 20 22 19 24

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

86% of married Americans believe they will still be married in 10 years

89

86%

4%10%

Married N=586

Yes

No

Don't know

IF MARRIED: In ten years, do you think you will still be married?

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Yes 86 89 84 87 84 87 88 87 88 83

No 4 3 5 7 4 4 4 6 3 4

Don't know 10 8 11 7 13 9 8 7 9 13

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

40% believe transportation infrastructure will be in better shape in 10 years

90

Do you think the transportation infrastructure in the US (roads, bridges, railways, etc.) will be in better or worse shape ten years

from now than it is today?

40%

37%

22%

ALL

Better shape Worse shape Don't know

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Better shape 40 41 39 47 44 34 37 44 40 37

Worse shape 37 40 35 27 35 43 44 34 39 38

Don’t know 22 18 26 26 21 23 19 21 20 25

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 202475% think they will own a car in 10 years

91

Do you currently own a car? In ten years, do you think you will own a car?

(If parent) In ten years, do you think all of your children of driving age will choose to own and drive a car?

77% 75% 72%

23%14% 15%11% 14%

Yes No Don't Know

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Do you currently own a car?

Yes 77 75 79 57 80 84 83 76 86 71

No 23 25 21 43 20 16 17 24 14 29

In ten years, do you think you will own a car?

Yes 75 74 77 76 77 80 63 77 79 71

No 14 15 13 16 13 10 20 14 9 18

Don’t know 11 11 11 8 10 10 18 9 12 11

(If parent) In ten years, do you think all of your children of driving age will choose to own and drive a car? *

Yes 72 70 73 63 76 72 93 82 71 64

No 15 18 13 20 14 11 0 10 17 18

Don’t know 14 12 15 17 10 17 7 9 13 18

*Reduced base sizes

ALL

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 202445% think they will drive less frequently in 10 years

92

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

More frequently 27 28 25 47 36 18 4 28 26 26

Less frequently 45 46 45 25 33 52 79 48 48 41

Don’t know 28 25 30 28 31 31 17 24 26 32

27%

45%

28%

ALL

More fre-quentlyLess fre-quentlyDon't know

Do you think you will drive more or less frequently in ten years than you do today?

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

20% expect to have bought an electric car in 10 years, and 69% expect gas prices to have increased by more than two dollars per gallon

93

In ten years, will you have bought an electric car? In ten years, do you think gas prices per gallon will have increased by more than $2?

20%

69%47%

14%33%

17%

Yes No Don't Know

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

In ten years, will you have bought an electric car?

Yes 20 25 16 26 25 18 9 20 20 21

No 47 45 50 50 45 46 50 45 55 43

Don't know 33 30 35 24 30 36 41 35 25 36

In ten years, do you think gas prices per gallon will have increased by more than $2?

Yes 69 67 72 66 72 68 72 70 69 69

No 14 18 10 17 12 12 14 11 18 12

Don't know 17 15 19 17 16 20 14 19 13 19

*Reduced base sizes

ALL

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

47% think airport delays will be longer in 10 years than they are today

94

47%

21%

32%

ALL

Longer

Shorter

Don't know

In ten years, do you think airline delays will be longer or shorter than they are today?

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Longer 47 47 46 38 48 47 56 49 49 43

Shorter 21 25 18 25 24 18 19 20 22 22

Don't know 32 28 36 37 29 35 25 31 29 35

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

25% envision space travel being available to average people in 10 years, and 22% think humans will have encountered life beyond Earth

95

*Reduced base sizes

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

In ten years, do you think commercial space travel will be available to the average person?*

Yes 25 27 23 24 29 29 11 21 29 25

No 46 50 43 45 41 41 66 49 46 44

Don't know 29 23 34 32 30 29 23 30 24 31

In ten years, do you think humans will have had encounters with life beyond?*

Yes 22 22 22 35 17 22 12 16 19 28

No 49 54 45 39 52 46 68 53 59 39

Don't know 29 24 33 27 32 33 20 31 22 32

25%

46%

29%

N=970

Yes

No

Don't know

In ten years, do you think commercial space travel will be available to the average person?

22%

49%

29%

N= 970

Yes

No

Don't know

In ten years, do you think humans will have had encounters with life beyond?

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

59% think they were healthier 10 years ago, and 43% expect to be healthier 10 years from now

96

Ten years ago, were you healthier or less healthy than you are today?

In ten years, do you expect to be healthier or less healthy than you are today?

59%43%

24% 31%17%

26%

Healthier Less healthy Don't know

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=970

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Ten years ago, were you healthier or less healthy than you are today?*

Healthier 59 56 61 47 56 65 67 61 55 59

Less healthy 24 30 19 32 26 19 21 21 27 24

Don't know 17 14 20 21 18 17 12 18 18 16

In ten years, do you expect to be healthier or less healthy than you are today?*

Healthier 43 42 43 61 45 39 22 44 46 39

Less healthy 31 37 26 18 27 33 52 32 26 34

Don't know 26 21 31 21 28 28 26 23 28 27

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024Almost half expect to weigh less in 10 years

97

Ten years ago, did you weigh more or less than you do today?

In ten years, do you expect to weigh more or less than you do today?

32%19%

50% 49%

17%

31%

More Less Don't know

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=970

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Ten years ago, did you weigh more or less than you do today?*

More 32 32 33 30 34 28 42 34 30 33

Less 50 52 49 54 51 54 36 46 56 50

Don't know 17 16 18 16 15 18 22 20 15 17

In ten years, do you expect to weigh more or less than you do today?*

More 19 27 13 28 27 13 6 18 24 17

Less 49 45 54 42 44 54 60 50 48 50

Don't know 31 29 34 31 29 33 34 32 28 33

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

56% say they were more active 10 years ago, and 43% expect to be more active in 10 years

98

Ten years ago, were you more or less physically active than you are today?

In ten years, do you expect to be more or less physically active than you are today?

56%43%

27% 32%

17%24%

More physically active Less physically active Don't know

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=970

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Ten years ago, were you more or less physically active than you are today?*

More physically active 56 55 57 54 49 58 67 57 58 55

Less physically active 27 30 24 26 34 24 23 25 30 26

Don't know 17 15 19 21 17 18 10 19 12 19

In ten years, do you expect to be more or less physically active than you are today?*

More physically active 43 42 45 61 54 39 9 46 47 38

Less physically active 32 37 28 15 23 35 67 35 29 32

Don't know 24 21 27 24 23 26 24 18 23 30

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

42% think there will be cures for some of the deadliest forms of cancer in 10 years

99

Ten years from now, do you think we will have cured some of the deadliest forms of cancer?

42%

37%

21%YesNoDon't Know

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Yes 42 41 43 43 35 48 38 35 38 53 38 40 4054

43 49 36

No 37 40 34 39 44 32 36 39 42 32 39 42 37 25 38 33 39

Don’t know 21 20 22 18 21 20 26 25 20 15 22 19 23 21 19 18 25

ALL

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=970

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

36% say they will be reading printed newspapers in 10 years

100

Do you currently read any newspapers or magazines printed on paper?

Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any newspapers or magazines printed on paper?

68%

36%28%46%

3%18%

Yes No Don't know

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=1031

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Do you currently read any newspapers or magazines printed on paper?*

Yes 68 65 71 55 73 70 74 67 70 67

No 28 31 26 39 22 29 26 30 28 27

Don't know 3 4 3 6 6 2 0 3 2 5

Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any newspapers or magazines printed on paper?*

Yes 36 35 37 35 36 34 42 37 41 31

No 46 48 44 49 45 43 51 47 41 50

Don't know 18 17 19 16 19 23 7 16 18 19

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 202450% say they will be reading printed books in 10 years

101

Do you currently read any books printed on paper? Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any books printed on paper?

68%50%

26%37%

5% 13%

Yes No Don't know

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=1031

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Do you currently read any books printed on paper?*

Yes 68 60 77 66 71 68 68 75 66 64

No 26 33 20 25 20 30 32 22 31 27

Don't know 5 8 3 9 9 3 0 3 3 9

Ten years from now, do you think you will be reading any books printed on paper?*

Yes 50 43 57 51 54 46 50 54 48 48

No 37 44 30 36 34 37 43 35 39 38

Don't know 13 13 13 14 13 16 7 11 13 15

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Americans are most likely to say football, basketball, baseball and soccer will be more popular in 10 years

27% 31% 30% 30% 31% 35% 34% 33% 37% 35% 40%

15%22% 25% 24%

32% 29% 34% 39% 34% 38%43%

58%47% 46% 46% 37% 36% 33% 29% 29% 27%

17%

Don't know Less popular More popular

102

(Ranked) Ten years from now, do you think each of these sports will be more popular or less popular in the United States than it is today?

(Multiple Responses Permitted)

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Younger Americans are much more likely to think ultimate fighting and boxing will become more popular

103

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Ten years from now, do you think each of these sports will be more popular or less popular in the United States than it is today?(Multiple Responses Permitted)

Football 58/15/27 62/17/21 54/13/33 58/15/27 56/15/29 58/12/29 61/18/21 60/14/26 59/15/26 56/15/29

Baseball 46/25/30 47/31/23 45/19/36 45/27/28 42/27/31 47/21/32 50/26/24 50/21/29 46/24/30 43/28/29

Basketball 47/22/31 51/25/24 44/19/37 55/15/29 43/25/32 45/21/34 47/29/25 50/21/29 47/23/30 45/22/33

Hockey 36/29/35 39/33/28 33/26/41 33/32/35 33/33/34 34/27/39 47/25/28 38/30/32 36/27/37 33/31/36

Soccer 46/24/30 50/28/22 42/21/37 43/30/27 41/28/31 46/21/33 55/19/26 47/22/30 43/25/32 46/26/28

Golf 33/34/34 33/39/29 33/29/38 22/43/35 27/38/35 34/30/36 52/23/26 39/31/31 33/33/33 27/36/37

Tennis 27/38/35 28/43/29 26/33/41 21/47/32 24/40/35 27/33/40 40/31/29 33/34/33 27/36/37 22/42/36

Ultimate fighting 37/32/31 42/34/24 31/30/38 47/24/30 43/27/30 31/35/34 25/46/29 32/37/31 36/32/33 41/28/30

Boxing 29/39/33 31/45/24 27/33/40 39/29/31 35/34/31 23/42/35 17/50/33 28/39/34 27/41/33 31/37/32

Snowboarding 29/34/37 30/40/30 29/28/44 28/35/37 26/38/36 32/29/39 30/34/36 29/32/38 34/29/37 26/38/36

Lacrosse 17/43/40 20/48/33 15/38/47 20/43/36 16/47/37 17/40/43 16/40/44 17/44/39 17/43/40 17/42/41

PERCENTAGES SHOWN BY MORE POPULAR/ LESS POPULAR/ DON’T KNOW

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

40% say football concussions will be less of a problem in 10 years, and 37% think that youth football participation will be lower

104

Ten years from now, do you think concussions will be ...

31%40%

30%More of a problem Less of a problem Don't know

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=970

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Ten years from now, do you think concussions will be a more of a problem or less of a problem in football than they are today?*

More of a problem 31 37 25 42 32 27 21 26 29 36

Less of a problem 40 37 42 26 38 45 51 45 44 32

Don't know 30 25 33 33 29 28 28 29 26 32

Ten years from now, do you think participation in youth and high school football will be higher or lower than it is today?*

Higher 30 29 31 28 36 26 31 34 28 28

Lower 37 43 32 33 33 44 33 30 41 39

Don't know 33 28 37 39 31 29 36 36 30 33

Ten years from now, do you think participation in youth and hi...

30%37% 33%

Higher Lower Don't know

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

26% say they will exclusively stream TV shows on demand in 10 years

105

45%

26%

29%

ALL N=1031Live TV service

Exclusively stream-ing TV shows on-demand

Don't know

In ten years, do you think you will have a live TV service (such as cable or satellite) or will you have canceled your live TV service in favor of exclusively streaming TV shows on-demand (through companies such as Netflix and Amazon)?

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Live TV service 45 46 44 43 44 43 53 49 46 40

Exclusively streaming TV shows on-demand

26 25 28 29 30 21 25 29 28 21

Don't know 29 30 28 27 26 36 21 22 25 38

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 202427% say they will go to the movies less often in 10 years

106

11%

46%

27%

16%

ALL N=970More frequently

Same amount

Less frequently

Don't know

In ten years, do you think you will go to the movies more frequently, less frequently or about the same amount as you do currently?

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

More frequently 11 12 9 15 15 10 1 14 13 7

Same amount 46 45 47 42 48 44 50 47 49 42

Less frequently 27 27 28 18 22 30 43 24 28 30

Don't know 16 16 16 24 15 16 7 15 11 21

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

64% think The Simpsons will no longer be on TV in 10 years

107

36%

64%

ALL N=1031

Yes No

(If Group B) Ten years from now, do you think The Simpsons will still be on TV?

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Yes 36 38 35 51 44 29 22 30 38 41

No 64 62 65 49 56 71 78 70 62 59

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Americans are split on whether TV will be better in 10 years

108

Ten years ago, Friends and Frasier were broadcasting their final episodes, while shows such as House, Desperate

Housewives, Entourage and The Apprentice were debuting. Do you think television is better or worse now than it was in

2004?

Do you think television will be better or worse ten years from now than it is today?

35% 37%45%

37%

19%26%

Better Worse Don't know

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=1031

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Do you think television is better or worse now than it was in 2004?*

Better 35 42 29 44 49 28 19 40 27 37

Worse45 38 53 29 34 52 70 41 59 38

Don't know 19 21 18 27 17 21 11 19 14 24

Do you think television will be better or worse ten years from now than it is today?

Better 37 44 30 36 47 32 32 36 38 37

Worse 37 31 44 33 34 38 48 38 39 35

Don't know 26 25 26 32 20 31 20 26 23 28

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Most, especially women, think the majority of TV shows in 10 years will be Reality TV

109

28%

44%

28%

ALL N=1031Scripted

Reality TV

Don't know

Do you think the majority of TV shows ten years from now will be scripted or reality programs?

All

Gender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Scripted 28 36 20 41 29 24 19 31 26 27

Reality TV 44 38 49 38 47 44 45 44 45 42

Don't know 28 26 31 21 24 33 35 25 29 31

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

54% say they were happier 10 years ago, and 46% expect to be happier in 10 years

110

Ten years ago, were you happier or less happy than you are today?

In ten years, do you expect to be happier or less happy than you are today?

54%46%

24% 22%22%32%

Happier Less happy Don't know

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=970

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Ten years ago, were you happier or less happy than you are today?*

Happier 54 54 53 46 56 58 51 53 54 53

Less happy 24 23 25 27 26 22 21 24 23 25

Don't know 22 22 22 27 19 20 28 22 23 22

In ten years, do you expect to be happier or less happy than you are today?*

Happier 46 40 52 48 49 52 26 50 51 40

Less happy 22 29 16 25 21 17 31 17 20 27

Don't know 32 31 33 27 30 32 43 33 30 32

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

52% say that their lives were less stressful 10 years ago, 41% expect their lives to be less stressful in 10 years

111

Ten years ago, was your day-to-day life more stressful or less stressful than it is today?

In ten years, do you expect your day-to-day life will be more stressful or less stressful than it is today?

32% 32%

52%41%

16%27%

More stressful Less stressful Don't know

*Reduced base sizes

ALL N=970

AllGender Age Political Affiliation

M F 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Ten years ago, was your day-to-day life more stressful or less stressful than it is today?*

More stressful 32 36 29 34 29 34 31 31 36 29

Less stressful 52 51 53 48 55 50 58 52 51 53

Don't know 16 14 18 18 16 17 11 16 13 18

In ten years, do you expect your day-to-day life will be more stressful or less stressful than it is today?*

More stressful 32 38 28 45 33 24 31 31 32 33

Less stressful 41 39 42 27 42 48 45 43 43 37

Don't know 27 23 30 29 26 28 25 26 24 29

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

112

56% think that people will be living longer in 2024

All 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+

56%

42%50%

57%

78%

25%34% 32%

23%

9%19% 23%

18% 20%13%

Longer Shorter Don’t know

Ten years from now, do you think people will be living longer or shorter?

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

86% say they do not own their own business, and 69% do not expect to do so in 10 years

113

Do you currently own your own business? In ten years, do you think you will own your own business?

10% 18%

86%69%

4% 14%

Yes No Don't Know

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Do you currently own your own business?

Yes 10 12 8 10 8 8 14 6 11 17 9 12 11 6 9 11 10

No 86 84 88 86 89 86 83 89 87 81 84 84 86 93 86 88 84

Don’t know 4 4 4 3 2 6 3 6 2 2 7 4 4 1 4 1 6

In ten years, do you think you will own your own business?

Yes 18 23 13 21 15 15 21 17 17 20 29 28 10 1 17 16 20

No 69 65 72 65 74 68 68 67 72 69 56 56 74 94 68 76 63

Don’t know 14 12 15 14 11 17 11 16 11 11 15 16 15 4 15 8 17

ALL

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

71% say they do not work in an office; among those who do, 57% expect to work in an office in 10 years

114

25%

71%

4%

Yes

No

Don't know

Do you currently work in an office?

57%29%

15%Office

Remote loca-tion

Don't know

IF CURRENTLY WORK IN OFFICE, ten years from now, do you think you will work in an office or in a remote location, like from home?

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

Do you currently work in an office?

Yes 25 27 23 26 25 23 25 8 25 51 19 37 28 6 23 32 20

No 71 69 73 71 73 71 72 86 73 48 75 60 68 93 73 66 74

Don’t know 4 4 4 3 2 6 3 6 2 2 7 4 4 1 4 2 6

IF CURRENTLY WORK IN OFFICE, ten years from now, do you think you will work in an office or in a remote location, like

from home? *

Office 57 61 51 56 58 51 64 58 58 56 59 63 51 33 65 54 51

Remote location 29 28 29 30 28 34 20 24 23 33 27 27 29 44 23 31 31

Don’t know 15 11 19 14 15 15 15 18 20 11 13 10 19 22 12 15 18

ALL

N=491

*Reduced base sizes

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

Americans are more likely to say they will prefer to live in a suburb or rural area than in a city in 10 years

115

In ten years, do you think you will prefer to live in a city, suburb or rural America?

23% 35% 33% 9%

City Suburb Rural area Don't know

In 2024

In ten years, do you think you will prefer to live in a city, suburb or rural America?

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

City 23 28 19 17 19 27 27 23 23 22 31 25 18 21 29 17 23

Suburb 35 37 33 46 35 29 35 28 34 46 33 34 35 39 35 40 32

Rural area 33 26 39 28 39 35 26 35 37 27 22 34 36 36 28 37 33

Don’t know

9 9 9 9 7 9 12 14 6 4 14 7 10 4 8 6 12

ALL

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

58% do not think they will be in their current jobs in 10 years

116

In ten years, do you think you will be in your current job?

Do you think you will be laid off at some point in the next ten years?

18% 25%

58%46%

23% 29%

Yes No Don't Know

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

In ten years, do you think you will be in your current job?*

Yes 18 22 16 15 15 24 16 8 20 28 16 24 18 13 16 28 13No 58 59 57 56 56 55 66 59 59 61 54 54 55 76 62 55 57Don’t know 23 19 27 30 28 21 18 32 22 11 30 22 26 10 22 16 29

Do you think you will be laid off at some point in the next ten years? *

Yes 25 30 20 29 26 26 20 25 24 25 33 27 23 16 23 27 26No 46 43 49 45 47 47 45 38 50 57 31 47 47 69 50 49 42

Don’t know 29 27 30 26 26 27 35 37 26 17 37 26 31 15 27 24 32

AllN=970

*Reduced base sizes

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IMAGINING 2024The Atlantic/Aspen Institute

IMAGINING 2024

53% of those who are employed do not expect to be working for the same company in 10 years

117

26%41%

53%

35%21% 24%

Yes No Don't Know

All

Gender Region Income Age Political Affiliation

M F NE MW S W <35K35K-75K

>75K 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ D R I

IF EMPLOYED, in ten years, do you think you will still be working at the same company where you currently work?*

Yes 26 28 24 20 26 28 27 16 27 31 25 25 28 19 23 34 21No 53 56 51 59 51 53 52 57 49 55 59 50 51 77 58 49 54

Don’t know 21 16 25 20 23 20 21 27 24 13 16 25 21 4 19 17 25

IF EMPLOYED, in ten years, do you think you will be working in the same career field as you currently do?*

Yes 41 47 36 38 40 45 41 27 44 50 50 40 41 26 40 48 37No 35 33 36 41 38 30 34 42 30 35 30 35 34 58 37 30 36

Don’t know 24 20 28 21 22 25 26 31 26 16 20 26 25 16 23 22 26

IF EMPLOYED N=479

*Reduced base sizes