AMDSB Enrolment Projections Presentation_2011
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Transcript of AMDSB Enrolment Projections Presentation_2011
A Demographic Overview and Projected Enrolment
Avon Maitland District School BoardTuesday, March 22, 2011
Presented By:
Jack Ammendolia, Director
The Ammendolia Group Ltd.
TAG the ammendolia group ltd.
Projecting School Enrolment
Enrolment projections are dependant on a variety of demographic, social and economic factors on a national, provincial and local scale.
Things like;
Birth trends Immigration and migration Economic upswings or downturns Housing development and affordability Provincial policies
Can all affect enrolment for a school board.
To understand future enrolment trends for your school board and put them in perspective, it is helpful to understand national and provincial population trends.
Population Trends
The National Perspective•The Canadian population grew more rapidly between 2001 and 2006 than the previous census period (5.4% compared with 4%).
• Canada had a higher rate of growth from 2001 and 2006 than any other of the G8 countries.
• About 2/3’s of Canada’s growth was due to international migration – the majority of growth in the United States is due to natural increase.
Alberta and Ontario were responsible for more than 2/3’s of Canada’s population growth.
While the country continues to experience overall population growth, Canada has been experiencing long term enrolment decline. The number of school aged children dropped to 5.2 million in 2005-06, down 3% from 1999.
Ontario
The Province of Ontario’s overall population continues to grow.
Ontario’s population growth is largely driven by international migration – between 2001 and 2006,
600,000 immigrants settled in Ontario.
The Province grew by more than the National average from 2001-2006 (6.6%) as it has for more than a decade. This represented a population increase of about 750,000 people – approximately half of Canada’s total population growth.
Ontario and School Aged Population Trends
CENSUS POPULATION
Age 1996 2001Change 1996-
2001 2006Change 2001-
20060-3 581,745 529,145 - 52,600 535,210 6,065
4-13 1,490,495 1,547,950 57,455 1,507,260 - 40,690 14-18 702,110 776,600 74,490 838,420 61,820
0-3 Years 4-13 Years 14-18 Years0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
Population Trends, 1996-2006
199620012006
AGE
POPU
LATI
ON
Ontario Highlights
After more than a decade of declines in the pre-school aged population (0-3), the Province of Ontario experienced a slight increase of just over 1% or approximately 6,000 0-3 year olds from 2001-2006, according to the 2006 Census.
The elementary aged population experienced a decline of -2.6% from 2001-2006, while the secondary aged population increased by 8% over the same time period.
Larger grade cohorts in the senior elementary grades continue to age and move to secondary and are being replaced by significantly smaller cohorts – accounting for the declines in the elementary population and increases in
the secondary. In the short to mid term, historical elementary declines will begin to impact
secondary enrolment.
Ontario - What To Expect?
Ontario-wide births have started to increase over the past several years after more than a decade of significant declines. From 2002-2005, births have
increased by more than 5%.
1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005110000
115000
120000
125000
130000
135000
140000
145000
150000
155000
Ontario Live Births
YEAR
NUM
BER
OF
BIRT
HS
The increasing trend in the number of births is promising – it should be noted however, that current births are still more than 11% lower than levels from the
early 1990’s
Cautious Optimism
Recent demographic and socio-economic trends, combined with robust growth forecasts for the Province suggest that the declining school age population trends may begin to stabilize in the short to mid term.
There are, however, important indicators that should be highlighted and monitored.
Census Census % Change Census % ChangeAGE 1996 2001 1996-2001 2006 2001-2006
25-34 873,535 797,790 -8.7% 793,090 -0.6%
35-44 909,250 995,685 9.5% 979,060 -1.7%
TOTAL 1,782,785 1,793,475 0.6% 1,772,150 -1.2%
The table below outlines the female population aged 25-44. The recent increases in births and pre-school aged children is consistent with a slight
increase in the 25-44 year old females from 96-01. This same group experienced a decline of 1.2% from 2001-2006.
THE AVON MAITLAND DSB
After a decline in 2002, births have been increasing.
The pre-school and school aged populations have all declined from 2001 to 2006.
The demographics suggest that enrolment declines are likely to continue in the short term but increases in births may stabilize the declines in the mid-term.
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Number of Births
AMDSB JURISDICTION 2001-2006
AGE ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE
0-3 Years Old -340 -5.32%4-13 Years Old -1,715 -8.96%
14-18 Years Old -280 -2.72%Age 18 and over 2,615 2.68%Total Population 280 0.21%
Females Aged 25-44 -1,290 -7.39%
0-3 4-13 14-18 18+0
100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000
100000
2001 2006
Enrolment Projection Indicators
Demographic and certain socio-economic characteristics have a significant impact on future enrolment, however there are other factors that can
impact projected enrolment.
Other important factors that affect the forecasting of school enrolment deal with trends in the enrolment itself.
Junior Kindergarten trends and participation rates Grade Structure Ratios Grade 9 participation rates Returning grade 12’s ENROLMENT SHARE
Junior Kindergarten Participation Rates
The JK grade or entry year into school systems plays an important role in determining future enrolment.
SINGLE YEAR OF AGE 2001 20060 1,585 1,4951 1,465 1,4602 1,690 1,5403 1,625 1,5504 1,670 1,5105 1,840 1,6456 1,835 1,5407 1,790 1,7108 1,890 1,7059 2,015 1,720
10 2,030 1,85511 2,080 1,89512 1,955 1,83513 2,025 1,955
JK HEADCOUNT ENROLMENT 923 940
ELEMENTARY HEADCOUNT ENROLMENT 13,152 11,618
JK PARTICIPATION 55% 62%
ELEMENTARY PARTICIPATION 69% 67%
Grade Structure Ratio
The grade structure ratio is a comparison of senior elementary students (grade 6-8) to junior elementary students (JK-1). A ratio of 1 means that the senior and junior cohorts are equal to each other. A ratio lower than 1 could indicate short term increases, while a ratio higher than 1 could indicate short
term declines.
HISTORICAL ENROLMENT
Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Historical Current
GRADES 2001/ 2002/ 2003/ 2004/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ 2008/ 2009/
(ADE) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
JK 923 1,007 951 899 955 940 917 914 913
SK 1,175 1,108 1,179 1,085 1,017 1,042 1,028 1,006 1,000
1 1,380 1,264 1,169 1,246 1,137 1,047 1,070 1,045 1,0086 1,435 1,344 1,320 1,243 1,232 1,256 1,187 1,102 1,1937 1,384 1,416 1,357 1,332 1,250 1,247 1,251 1,202 1,1078 1,312 1,370 1,420 1,366 1,322 1,240 1,249 1,266 1,210
GSR 1.19 1.22 1.24 1.22 1.22 1.24 1.22 1.20 1.20
Secondary Factors
The retention of a board’s grade 8 students into grade 9 can have a significant impact on secondary enrolments. Open access allows students to attend the board of their
choice for secondary school instruction.
The full impact of eliminating OAC’s is still being determined as the percentage of returning grade 12’s varies from board to board and school to school.
2002/ 2003/ 2004/ 2005/ 2006/ 2007/ 2008/ 2009/ Avg. Avg.
Secondary School 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2002-2009 Last 5 Yrs.
Central Huron Secondary School 81% 92% 85% 88% 86% 92% 86% 95% 88% 89%F.E. Madill Secondary School 137% 142% 130% 136% 135% 152% 154% 145% 141% 144%Goderich District Collegiate Institute 109% 99% 113% 108% 126% 113% 125% 127% 115% 120%Listowel District Secondary School 128% 144% 128% 132% 135% 132% 132% 142% 134% 135%Mitchell District High School 105% 92% 84% 75% 93% 88% 106% 89% 91% 90%South Huron District High School 135% 121% 134% 130% 125% 157% 139% 127% 133% 135%St. Marys District Collegiate and Vocational Institute 121% 126% 116% 137% 139% 140% 136% 137% 131% 138%Stratford Central Secondary School 64% 66% 104% 100% 110% 76% 102% 110% 92% 100%Stratford Northwestern Secondary School 145% 140% 79% 92% 84% 123% 103% 94% 107% 99%
Enrolment Share and Participation Rates
The participation share of the population and the share of enrolment between school boards can affect future enrolment independent of all other factors.
2001 2006 DifferenceElementary Enrolment (Headcount) 13,152 11,618 -1,533Elementary Aged Population 19,130 17,415 -1,715 Elementary Participation Rates 68.7% 66.7% -2.0%
2001 2006 DifferenceSecondary Enrolment (Headcount) 7,512 6,919 -593Secondary Aged Population 10,310 10,030 -280 Secondary Participation Rates 72.9% 69.0% -3.9%
AMDSB - ELEMENTARY SHARE
2001/02 2003/04 2004/05 2006/07
SHARE 80% 78% 78% 78%
AMDSB - SECONDARY SHARE
School 2001/02 2003/04 2004/05 2006/07
SHARE 82% 79% 80% 80%
Enrolment From New Housing Development
The projection of new housing growth has a significant impact on projected enrolment.
According to County and Municipal growth forecasts approximately 6,364 new housing units are projected to be built in the Board’s jurisdiction over the next 15 years. 68% of future units are expected to be built in Perth County and 32% in Huron County.
The new housing units are expected to generate almost 1,150 new elementary students and more than 550 new secondary students for the Board over the next 15 years.
TOTAL ELEMENTARY
Between 2001 and 2009 elementary enrolment declined by 18.5% . 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009Elementary Enrolment 12,103 11,973 11,656 11,344 10,986 10,628 10,410 10,154 9,869
PROJECTED ENROLMENT Current Year 5 Year 10 Year 15
GRADES 2009/ 2014/ 2019/ 2024/ADE 2010 2015 2020 2025JK 457 489 507 513SK 500 522 539 5521 1,008 932 951 9862 1,040 926 929 9663 1,060 999 918 9544 1,046 990 906 9405 1,093 968 899 9306 1,193 983 892 9107 1,107 1,007 895 8988 1,210 1,032 969 891
Special Education 75 62 62 62Alternative/Other 81 73 73 73
Existing 9,869 8,981 8,539 8,673New 329 807 1,145Total 9,869 9,310 9,347 9,819
New Units 2,230 4,292 6,364
RA01 – Stratford, Parts Perth East & Perth South(Anne Hathaway, Avon, Bedford, Downie, Hamlet, Easthope, Romeo, Shakespeare, Sprucedale, Central, Northwestern, Central Perth)
GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 129 123 124 -4% 0% -4%
2001 2006 Absolute % SK 166 172 143 3% -17% -14%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 384 273 293 -29% 7% -24%
Total Population 39,210 39,797 587 1.5% 6 405 348 361 -14% 4% -11%0-3 Years 1,918 1,816 -102 -5.3% 7 370 363 306 -2% -16% -17%4-13 Years 5,394 5,091 -302 -5.6% 8 354 309 359 -13% 16% 1%14-18 Years 2,788 2,779 -9 -0.3% TOTAL 3,274 2,960 2,856 -10% -4% -13%Over 18 Years 29,110 30,110 1,000 3.4% GSR 1.66 1.79 1.84 8% 2% 10%
Females 25-44 5,580 5,271 -308 -5.5%Total Occupied Dwellings: 15,287 15,929 641 4.2%
2014 2019 2024 09-24 %Enrolment Share 66.2% 63.9% -2.2% EXIST 2,623 2,391 2,358 -498 -17%
Share W/ HPCDSB 73.5% 72.7% -0.8% NEW 111 328 428
TOTAL 2,734 2,719 2,786 -70 -2%NEW UNITS 775 1,510 2,213
YIELD 0.179 0.240 0.207
AREA DEMOGRAPHICS HISTORICAL ENROLMENT CHANGE
PROJECTED CHANGE
2001-2006
RA02 – St. Mary’s, Part Perth South(South Perth, Little Falls, St. Mary’s DCVI)
GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 29 34 40 16% 19% 38%
2001 2006 Absolute % SK 42 31 35 -27% 15% -16%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 88 78 77 -12% -1% -13%
Total Population 8,275 8,517 242 2.9% 6 103 81 76 -21% -6% -26%0-3 Years 374 394 20 5.3% 7 101 93 63 -7% -32% -37%4-13 Years 1,227 1,113 -114 -9.3% 8 92 88 87 -4% -1% -5%14-18 Years 605 674 69 11.4% TOTAL 845 721 676 -15% -6% -20%Over 18 Years 6,069 6,336 267 4.4% GSR 1.86 1.85 1.49 -1% -20% -20%
Females 25-44 1,153 1,055 -98 -8.5%Total Occupied Dwellings: 3,046 3,269 223 7.3%
2014 2019 2024 09-24 %Enrolment Share 74.6% 70.5% -4.0% EXIST 652 652 693 17 2%
Share W/ HPCDSB 70.3% 69.6% -0.7% NEW 43 82 129
TOTAL 696 734 822 146 22%NEW UNITS 230 460 690
YIELD 0.236 0.198 0.201
AREA DEMOGRAPHICS HISTORICAL ENROLMENT CHANGE
PROJECTED CHANGE
2001-2006
RA03 – Perth West(Upper Thames)
GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 31 38 29 22% -23% -6%
2001 2006 Absolute % SK 43 42 43 -2% 3% 1%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 82 73 68 -11% -7% -17%
Total Population 9,130 8,835 -295 -3.2% 6 106 82 81 -23% -1% -24%0-3 Years 480 410 -70 -14.6% 7 104 77 60 -26% -22% -42%4-13 Years 1,460 1,250 -210 -14.4% 8 102 85 81 -17% -4% -20%14-18 Years 800 765 -35 -4.4% TOTAL 875 724 699 -17% -3% -20%Over 18 Years 6,390 6,410 20 0.3% GSR 2.00 1.60 1.59 -20% -1% -21%
Females 25-44 1,235 1,095 -140 -11.3%Total Occupied Dwellings: 3,160 3,140 20- -0.6%
2014 2019 2024 09-24 %Enrolment Share 64.9% 64.3% -0.7% EXIST 680 661 687 -12 -2%
Share W/ HPCDSB 78.8% 74.5% -4.3% NEW 17 58 80
TOTAL 697 719 767 68 10%NEW UNITS 110 245 391
YIELD 0.200 0.270 0.221
AREA DEMOGRAPHICS HISTORICAL ENROLMENT CHANGE
PROJECTED CHANGE
2001-2006
RA04 – Part Perth East(Milverton, Mornington Central)
GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 11 12 11 7% -6% 0%
2001 2006 Absolute % SK 25 30 27 20% -10% 8%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 60 46 39 -24% -14% -34%
Total Population 5,010 4,936 -74 -1.5% 6 47 46 44 -2% -3% -5%0-3 Years 308 310 2 0.7% 7 47 48 33 2% -31% -30%4-13 Years 824 806 -18 -2.2% 8 40 56 46 39% -17% 15%14-18 Years 422 387 -35 -8.3% TOTAL 446 402 380 -10% -6% -15%Over 18 Years 3,456 3,434 -23 -0.7% GSR 1.41 1.72 1.61 22% -6% 14%
Females 25-44 662 599 -64 -9.6%Total Occupied Dwellings: 1,587 1,593 6 0.4%
2014 2019 2024 09-24 %Enrolment Share 58.4% 55.0% -3.3% EXIST 408 363 377 -2 -1%
Share W/ HPCDSB 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% NEW 9 28 32
TOTAL 417 391 409 30 8%NEW UNITS 40 80 120
YIELD 0.269 0.386 0.287
AREA DEMOGRAPHICS HISTORICAL ENROLMENT CHANGE
PROJECTED CHANGE
2001-2006
RA05 – Perth North(Elma, Listowel Central, Listowel Eastdale, Wallace, Grey Central)
GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 65 75 59 16% -22% -10%
2001 2006 Absolute % SK 74 61 62 -18% 1% -17%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 175 140 151 -20% 8% -14%
Total Population 12,055 12,250 195 1.6% 6 174 161 141 -7% -12% -19%0-3 Years 585 585 0 0.0% 7 176 160 174 -9% 9% -1%4-13 Years 1,765 1,620 -145 -8.2% 8 168 181 151 8% -16% -10%14-18 Years 1,030 965 -65 -6.3% TOTAL 1,568 1,436 1,348 -8% -6% -14%Over 18 Years 8,675 9,080 405 4.7% GSR 1.65 1.82 1.72 10% -5% 4%
Females 25-44 1,605 1,515 -90 -5.6%Total Occupied Dwellings: 4,375 4,615 240 5.5%
2014 2019 2024 09-24 %Enrolment Share 96.7% 97.1% 0.4% EXIST 1,139 1,060 1,077 -271 -20%
Share W/ HPCDSB 100.0% 91.0% -9.0% NEW 62 154 190
TOTAL 1,201 1,214 1,267 -81 -6%NEW UNITS 300 600 900
YIELD 0.260 0.286 0.226
AREA DEMOGRAPHICS HISTORICAL ENROLMENT CHANGE
PROJECTED CHANGE
2001-2006
RA06- South Huron, Part Bluewater(Exeter, Hensall, Stephen Central, Usborne, Zurich)
GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 49 37 41 -24% 10% -16%
2001 2006 Absolute % SK 60 40 44 -33% 9% -27%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 158 76 81 -52% 7% -49%
Total Population 12,095 12,121 27 0.2% 6 145 144 104 -1% -28% -28%0-3 Years 454 456 3 0.6% 7 138 132 104 -4% -21% -25%4-13 Years 1,579 1,384 -195 -12.4% 8 134 104 104 -22% 0% -22%14-18 Years 901 825 -76 -8.4% TOTAL 1,256 988 820 -21% -17% -35%Over 18 Years 9,162 9,457 295 3.2% GSR 1.56 2.48 1.88 59% -24% 20%
Females 25-44 1,504 1,317 -187 -12.4%Total Occupied Dwellings: 4,732 4,891 159 3.4%
2014 2019 2024 09-24 %Enrolment Share 86.5% 77.0% -9.5% EXIST 696 696 720 -100 -12%
Share W/ HPCDSB 72.4% 67.4% -5.0% NEW 15 29 41
TOTAL 711 724 761 -59 -7%NEW UNITS 158 285 419
YIELD 0.112 0.112 0.104
AREA DEMOGRAPHICS HISTORICAL ENROLMENT CHANGE
PROJECTED CHANGE
2001-2006
RA07 – East Huron, Part Bluewater(Huron, Seaforth)
GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 31 32 29 4% -10% -7%
2001 2006 Absolute % SK 47 29 32 -38% 9% -32%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 98 76 56 -23% -26% -43%
Total Population 10,939 10,849 -90 -0.8% 6 76 86 111 13% 30% 46%0-3 Years 531 463 -68 -12.8% 7 99 91 82 -8% -10% -17%4-13 Years 1,581 1,468 -113 -7.2% 8 81 84 92 4% 10% 14%14-18 Years 879 762 -116 -13.2% TOTAL 796 758 676 -5% -11% -15%Over 18 Years 7,949 8,156 208 2.6% GSR 1.46 1.91 2.46 31% 29% 68%
Females 25-44 1,331 1,225 -107 -8.0%Total Occupied Dwellings: 3,974 4,103 129 3.2%
2014 2019 2024 09-24 %Enrolment Share 55.2% 55.8% 0.6% EXIST 525 498 507 -169 -25%
Share W/ HPCDSB 79.9% 80.7% 0.9% NEW 22 47 59
TOTAL 547 545 566 -110 -16%NEW UNITS 155 275 402
YIELD 0.164 0.187 0.156
AREA DEMOGRAPHICS HISTORICAL ENROLMENT CHANGE
PROJECTED CHANGE
2001-2006
RA08 – ACW, M-Turnberry, Howick, Goderich, Central & North Huron(Blyth, Brookside, Brussels, Clinton, Colborne, E. Wawanosh, Holmesville, Howick, Hullett, Turnberry, Goderich, GDCI)
GRADE 2001 2006 2009 01-06 06-09 01-09JK 118 120 125 2% 5% 6%
2001 2006 Absolute % SK 132 117 116 -11% -1% -12%Population Data Census Census Change Change 1 337 287 243 -15% -15% -28%
Total Population 36,662 36,350 -312 -0.9% 6 380 310 275 -19% -11% -28%0-3 Years 1,746 1,621 -125 -7.1% 7 351 284 285 -19% 0% -19%4-13 Years 5,301 4,684 -617 -11.6% 8 343 335 290 -2% -13% -15%14-18 Years 2,886 2,873 -13 -0.5% TOTAL 3,045 2,637 2,415 -13% -8% -21%Over 18 Years 26,730 27,172 443 1.7% GSR 1.83 1.77 1.75 -3% -1% -4%
Females 25-44 4,390 4,094 -296 -6.7%Total Occupied Dwellings: 13,694 13,926 232 1.7%
2014 2019 2024 09-24 %Enrolment Share 62.1% 61.4% -0.8% EXIST 2,257 2,218 2,255 -160 -7%
Share W/ HPCDSB 83.4% 82.1% -1.3% NEW 50 82 186
TOTAL 2,307 2,300 2,441 26 1%NEW UNITS 463 837 1,230
YIELD 0.126 0.108 0.161
AREA DEMOGRAPHICS HISTORICAL ENROLMENT CHANGE
PROJECTED CHANGE
2001-2006
TOTAL SECONDARY - HISTORICAL
HISTORICAL ENROLMENT Enrolment Change
2001/02 - 2009/10
GRADES 2001/ 2006/ 2009/ Absolute %(ADE) 2002 2007 2010 Change Change
9 1,598 1,488 1,479 -119 -7%10 1,652 1,507 1,454 -198 -12%11 1,472 1,449 1,495 24 2%12 1,583 1,267 2,091 508 32%
OAC 616 432 0 SE 95 198 0
ALT 174 345 0 TOTAL 7,188 6,685 6,519 -669 -9%
2001 2006 20096,000
6,500
7,000
7,500Historical Enrolment
TOTAL SECONDARY - PROJECTED
Current Year 5 Year 10 Year 15GRADES 2009/ 2014/ 2019/ 2024/
ADE 2010 2015 2020 20259 1,479 1,160 1,115 1,02010 1,454 1,236 1,083 1,01411 1,495 1,324 1,114 1,01112 2,091 1,691 1,517 1,344
Exist 6,519 5,411 4,829 4,390New 189 319 564
Total 6,519 5,600 5,149 4,954
New Units 2,230 4,292 6,364
Average Yield 0.104 0.082 0.095
PROJECTED ENROLMENT
Historical Year 5 Year 10 Year 154,0004,5005,0005,5006,0006,5007,000
Historical Enrolment