Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2014
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Transcript of Amárach Economic Recovery Index October 2014
1 Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing
October 2014
© Amárach Research
2 Economic Recovery Index
Polarised Sentiment
Something interesting is happening to Irish
sentiment about the state of the nation – it
seems to be becoming more polarised
between economic ‘optimists’ and economic
‘pessimists’.
While our Economic Recovery Index has
reached another record high in October, we
have seen a jump in both the % thinking things
aren’t great with the economy and the %
saying things are good with the economy.
That said, a majority of Irish people still
continue to say the economy is clearly
improving; and only a minority feel it’s bad or
just stable.
But one to watch in the run up to Christmas
and the start of the new year…
3 Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over five years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
October 2014.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 12th-18th October 2014 inclusive.
The full data series is on our website – details
at the end of this report.
Economic Recovery Index
5 Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our Index reached a new record level in October 2014:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, October 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Ap
r '0
9
Jun
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'10
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'11
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'12
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'13
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan
'14
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
e
July
Au
g
Sep
t
Oct
the rate of increase in the ERI has slowed, but it’s still rising…
6 Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Sept ’14: 15% Oct ’14: 18%
Sept ’14: 33% Oct ’14: 28%
Sept ’14: 39% Oct ’14: 38%
Sept ’14: 13% Oct ’14: 14%
Sept ’14: 1% Oct ’14: 2%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
For the first time in over 5 years, the majority of Irish people say the economy is improving:
7 Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Oct-09 47 30 22 1 0 19.6
Oct-10 56 23 18 2 1 16.3
Oct-11 42 31 25 2 0 22.0
Oct-12 48 28 21 3 0 19.8
Oct-13 32 32 32 4 0 27.4
Sep-14 15 33 39 13 1 38.1
Oct-14 18 28 38 14 2 38.3
the rise in % feeling the economic situation is getting worse reverses recent trends
8 Economic Recovery Index
Uneven Recovery
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
(by sex, age, class, Dublin)
Source: Amárach Research, October 2014
October 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 C2DE
1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
The economic situation
in Ireland is getting
worse 18% 17% 18% 14% 20% 17% 18% 16% 17% 12% 21%
The economic situation
is bad but has stabilized 28% 26% 29% 22% 29% 28% 28% 25% 27% 26% 26%
The economic situation
is bad but showing a
few signs of
improvement
38% 35% 38% 31% 31% 40% 39% 40% 34% 40% 34%
The economic situation
is getting better and
showing clear signs of
improvement
14% 17% 10% 17% 12% 11% 12% 15% 15% 17% 10%
The economic situation
is good and almost fully
recovered from the
recession
2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2%
ERI Score 38.3 40.1 36.5 37.9 34.6 37.7 38.6 41.9 39.2 42.2 34.7
Consumer Impact
10 Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Oct-09 48 46 55 56
Oct-10 26 41 44 52
Oct-11 26 38 49 45
Oct-12 26 38 48 44
Oct-13 30 36 44 43
Sep-14 45 42 54 44
Oct-14 41 43 51 40
sentiment turned more negative in October, though remains in positive territory
11 Economic Recovery Index
Unaffected?
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, October 2014
October 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 C2DE
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Strongly Agree 10% 14% 7% 14% 8% 7% 5% 17% 10% 14% 8%
Slightly Agree 33% 32% 34% 36% 30% 26% 28% 41% 33% 39% 28%
Neither/Nor 14% 14% 14% 12% 16% 18% 15% 11% 17% 15% 13%
Slightly Disagree 19% 18% 20% 16% 24% 21% 26% 12% 16% 16% 22%
Strongly Disagree 20% 19% 21% 18% 19% 25% 22% 17% 19% 14% 26%
12 Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Oct-09 16 32 61 33
Oct-10 15 25 59 27
Oct-11 14 22 54 23
Oct-12 16 25 56 25
Oct-13 18 24 57 24
Sep-14 26 25 57 28
Oct-14 23 25 57 25
the % of consumers prioritising savings and debt repayments remains unchanged
13 Economic Recovery Index
Purses & Wallets
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, October 2014
October 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 C2DE
Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Strongly Agree 5% 7% 3% 9% 4% 4% 4% 3% 5% 6% 3%
Slightly Agree 18% 19% 17% 19% 18% 15% 15% 22% 23% 21% 16%
Neither/Nor 20% 23% 18% 20% 19% 23% 18% 21% 23% 24% 17%
Slightly Disagree 26% 24% 29% 21% 26% 27% 29% 27% 25% 25% 27%
Strongly Disagree 28% 24% 31% 25% 29% 30% 33% 24% 22% 22% 33%
14 Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I always buy the
lowest price
products or
services
I am always on the
lookout for
opportunities to
switch to cheaper
suppliers
I have more choice
than before when it
comes to products
and services
I always buy Irish
when I can
Apr-13 57 71 52 52
May-13 58 69 54 54
Jun-13 55 70 55 51
Jul-13 56 70 52 53
Aug-13 57 70 53 53
Sep-13 59 72 53 54
Oct-13 58 69 52 51
Nov-13 56 69 55 51
Dec-13 54 68 54 53
Jan-14 59 74 56 54
Feb-14 56 70 57 52
Mar-14 57 68 56 48
Apr-14 56 69 54 50
May-14 60 72 55 51
Jun-14 55 70 58 52
Jul-14 58 72 58 48
Aug-14 56 71 60 51
Sep-14 55 74 61 53
Oct-14 56 68 58 51
Mood of the Nation
16 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 1
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2014
Source: Amárach Research, October 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Ap
r '0
9
Jun
Au
g
Oct
Dec
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
e
Au
g
Oct
Dec
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
e
Au
g
Oct
Dec
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
e
Au
g
Oct
Dec
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
e
Au
g
Oct
Dec
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
e
Au
g
Oct
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
17 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation 2
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to October 2014
Source: Amárach Research, October 2014
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Ap
r '0
9
Jun
Au
g
Oct
Dec
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
e
Au
g
Oct
Dec
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
e
Au
g
Oct
Dec
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
e
Au
g
Oct
Dec
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
e
Au
g
Oct
Dec
Fe
b
Ap
r
Jun
e
Au
g
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
18 Economic Recovery Index
Changing Moods
Source: Amárach Research, October 2014
October 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1 C2DE
1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523
Enjoyment 58% 58% 59% 57% 52% 49% 60% 70% 61% 64% 54%
Happiness 56% 54% 57% 55% 54% 50% 62% 58% 55% 59% 53%
Stress 36% 32% 40% 38% 41% 40% 36% 28% 34% 29% 42%
Worry 31% 28% 33% 33% 34% 34% 30% 26% 30% 27% 34%
Anxiety 25% 22% 27% 30% 25% 26% 26% 19% 23% 21% 28%
Boredom 24% 24% 24% 45% 28% 25% 18% 10% 26% 23% 25%
Physical Pain 20% 22% 19% 16% 17% 18% 21% 26% 21% 17% 23%
Sadness 18% 17% 18% 24% 20% 16% 13% 15% 20% 17% 18%
Anger 13% 11% 15% 17% 20% 12% 10% 8% 16% 8% 17%
Fear 9% 9% 9% 11% 12% 9% 6% 6% 10% 6% 12%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: October 2014
Amárach Outlook
20 Economic Recovery Index
Year End Prospects
The softening of sentiment in October (or
rather, a greater polarisation) comes at a
crucial time in the run up to Christmas for
retailers and others.
There’s still a positive momentum showing up
in car and house sales – among others – but
it’s fragile at an emotional level.
We hope this edition of the Economic
Recovery Index has given you some food for
thought about the opportunities that lie ahead
– we’d be happy to share other ideas with you
on how to leverage the new momentum.
For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm
we ask better questions
so you get better answers
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Trends Report
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
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