Alternatives to Agile Estimation - A Team Perspective
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Transcript of Alternatives to Agile Estimation - A Team Perspective
![Page 1: Alternatives to Agile Estimation - A Team Perspective](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022052618/554c590eb4c9053e308b4e10/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
ALTERNATIVES to AGILE
ESTIMATION
NEIL KILLICKneilkillick.com
neil_killick #NoEstimates
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AND WHEN
WHAT WILL I GET
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ESTIMATING OR GUESSING?
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MAKING PREDICTIONS <> PREDICTABILITY
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USE *REAL* CONSTRAINTS
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KEEP TEAMS TOGETHER
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USE XP PRACTICES
● Continuous integration
● TDD/BDD
● Pair programming
● Clean code
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DELIVER EARLY & OFTEN
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FOCUS ON FLOW
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ITERATE *AND* INCREMENT
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BACKLOG = OPTIONS
● You will NOT build the whole backlog● Knowing this is empowering
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DOES SIZE MATTER?
8Smaller, cheaper (?) awesome feature
Awesome feature
13
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FOCUS ON VALUE, NOT COST
● Iterative Funding● Emergent Value
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USE A SLICING HEURISTIC
● Explicit policy forbreaking up work,e.g. "A story must have only oneacceptance test"
● Slice stories JIT (e.g. in Sprint Planning)● Can add to "Definition of Ready"
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WHY IS THIS BETTER THAN ESTIMATING?
● Explicitly promotes the good practice of splitting work to be done
● Avoids cognitive biases
● Easy to measure effectiveness (e.g. mean & median cycle time within x%)
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LITTLE'S LAW IS KEY
CYCLE TIME =WIP /
THROUGHPUT
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● Size of premises● No. & size of ovens
CONSTRAINTS REDUCE VARIABILITY AND LIMIT WIP
● No. of chefs & drivers● Delivery radius
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● Avg. wait time (hours) =Number of orders in progress (WIP)/ Avg. orders completed in an hour (throughput)
● Assume throughput is 50● Using Little's Law, 0.5 = x / 50● x = 25● We should only take on 25
orders at a time
MAX. 30 MINUTEWAIT FOR CUSTOMERS
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WHAT IF WE TAKEON MORE ORDERS?
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TAKING ON MORE ORDERS MAY INCREASE WAIT TIME
● Now our WIP is 30 orders● x = 30 / 50● x = 0.6 hours = 36 minutes
● If we can actually deliver60 pizzas per hour, waittime will not increase
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LIMIT WIP, LOW CYCLE TIME
WIP limits
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CYCLE TIME DISTRIBUTION
● Measure actual cycle time to identify outliers
● Measure mean and median averages
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EASY TO MEASURE & SHOW
● Update cycle time at daily standup
● Use coloureddots to representnumber of days
An awesome feature that's taken 4 days
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IN SUMMARY
● Real constraints breed creativity● Keep teams together● Use XP practices for technical excellence● Put the "iterate" back into iterations!
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IN SUMMARY
● Treat the backlog as options● Focus on value, not cost● Slice work using a heuristic● Limit WIP and measure cycle times
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Thank you
NEIL KILLICKneilkillick.com
neil_killick #NoEstimates