Alternativenergy New frontiers for alternative energy Reid Buckley, Vice-President, BP Alternative...
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alternativenergy
New frontiers for alternative energy
Reid Buckley, Vice-President, BP Alternative Energy
alternativenergy
Energy demand 2005-2030
10
12
14
16
18
20
2005 2015 2030
Reference
Alternative
Billion tonnes oil equivalent
- Reference scenario represents ‘business-as-usual’- Alternative scenario assumes all climate change and energy security policies now being considered by governments are adopted
Source: IEA World Economic Outlook 2007
alternativenergy
CO2 emissions 2005-2030
20
30
40
50
2005 2015 2030
Reference
Alternative
2°C scenario
Billion tonnes CO2
Reference scenario represents ‘business-as-usual’
2°C scenario shows IEA calculation of path needed to prevent temperatures rising 2°C over pre-industrial levels
Alternative scenario assumes all climate change and energy security policies now being considered by governments are adopted
Source: IEA World Economic Outlook 2007
alternativenergy
Alternative energy
Low-or-no carbon
Plentiful
Secure
Increasingly attractive economically
“I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” Thomas Edison, 1931
alternativenergy
Policy support for alternative energy
Policy targets in 66 countries
Feed-in tariffs in 37 countries
Mandates for biofuels in 17 countries
Source: Ren21 Global Status Report 2007, Renewable Energy Policy Network
alternativenergy8
Alternative energy: the market today
Demand growth p.a. since 2001
Sources: Primary energy based on IEA WEO reference scenario. Renewables based on New Energy Finance
0
10
20
30
40
Total PrimaryEnergy
Wind Solar Biofuels
%
Global new investment in clean energy
Grossed-up estimate based on disclosed deals. New investment only. Source: New Energy Finance
2007
60%
Growth
58%
Growth
91%
Growth
0
25
50
75
100
125
$28.6bn
2004
$54.6bn
2005
$86.5bn
2006
$148.4bn
$b
n
150
alternativenergy9
Alternative energy: the market today
Demand growth p.a. since 2001
Sources: Primary energy based on IEA WEO reference scenario. Renewables based on New Energy Finance
0
10
20
30
40
Total PrimaryEnergy
Wind Solar Biofuels
%
Global new investment in clean energy
Grossed-up estimate based on disclosed deals. New investment only. Source: New Energy Finance
2007
60%
Growth
58%
Growth
91%
Growth
0
25
50
75
100
125
$28.6bn
2004
$54.6bn
2005
$86.5bn
2006
$148.4bn
$b
n
150
Jobs in renewable energy –
2,400,000
alternativenergy
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2002 2007 2013 2018 2023
US wind capacity - beating the projections
EIA projection from 2004
GWActual capacity end-2007
alternativenergy
BP Alternative Energy: a growing global business
Investing $1.5bn in 2008 – as much as in previous two years combined
Solar PV facility / market
Wind power
Hydrogen power
Biofuels facility / market
Gas fired power
alternativenergy14
BP Alternative Energy: solar power
• 30 years’ experience, 20 offices, 2000+ employees, installations in 160 countries.
• Manufacturing facilities in Frederick US, Bangalore, Madrid, Xian and Sydney.
• Expecting to grow 60%+ by 2012. • Expanding production to achieve
target sales of around 800MW with similar levels of production by 2010
• Includes $97m expansion at Frederick – largest integrated solar manufacturing plant in US
• Advanced Mono² process; support for research projects
alternativenergy15
BP Alternative Energy: wind power
0
1000
2000
3000
2005 end 2008 end 2010
MW
30 MW
1GW
3GW
Expected installed gross capacity
US land portfolio with potential for 15GW
alternativenergy16
BP Alternative Energy: wind power
Built:
• Colorado: Cedar Creek wind farm with partner Babcock & Brown – 300MW
• Dhule, India - project built with partner Suzlon – 40MW
• Netherlands: Two farms – total 30MW
Under construction:
• Indiana: Fowler Ridge wind farm with Dominion – Phase I - 400MW
• Texas: Silver Star project with Clipper - 60MW; Sherbino project with NRG Energy - 150MW
• Kansas: Flat Ridge farm with Westar Energy - 100MW
• California – re-powering Edom Hills – 20MW
alternativenergy17
BP Alternative Energy: biofuels
• Producing ‘good’ biofuels – which reduce emissions and enhance security without damaging habitats and forests
• $1bn investment in Brazilian ethanol – made from sustainable sugar-cane - the most efficient feedstock currently available - greenhouse gas emissions reductions of up to 80%
• Working with DuPont to demonstrate biobutanol
• Investing $500 million over 10 years in the Energy Biosciences Institute to explore advanced biofuels and other applications of biotech to energy
alternativenergy
New policies on alternative energy
Climate high on agenda for G8 and UN
Climate summit in Copenhagen December 2009
Carbon price of up to $60 projected by 2012*
National legislation or proposals underway in many countries
*Source: New Energy Finance
alternativenergy20
Alternative energy: future market drivers
Demand growth p.a. 2005-2030E
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
Total PrimaryEnergy
Wind Solar Biofuels
Sources: Primary energy based on IEA WEO 2007 reference scenario. Renewables based on New Energy Finance
Source: New Energy Finance, Nov 2007
Global new investment in 2030 - Clean Tech forecast
0
1000
2000
3000
2007 2030$
bn
$148bn
$2-3trn