ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report

Volume 23 – Issue 1– 6th January 2013

 

1  

This Week 1. The Most Important Events of 2012 2. The Comparative Performance of Selected Stock Markets 3. Kuwait Stock Exchange Performance 2012 4. The Weekly Performance of Kuwait Stock Exchange

Prepared by Economic Research Unit ALSHALL Consulting Co. Salhiya – Sahab Tower – Floor 9 – Kuwait Tel: + 96522451535 – Fax: +96522422619 Email: info@alshall.com Web site: www.alshall.com Twitter: @ALSHALL_Con

1. The Most Important Events of 2012 After the domestic economy achieved real growth of about 9.3% in 2011, EIU bulletin -December 2012 issue- expects GDP in 2012 has achieved real positive growth by about 5%, thanks to the continued rise in oil production and prices. Growth in nominal GDP is expected to reach 7.4% to score about KD 47.685 billion (about US$ 170.3 billion). The domestic economy will continue to grow and will achieve real positive growth of around 4.6% in 2013.

Kuwait’s average oil production during 2012 amounted to about 2.747 million barrels per day according to EIU bulletin (2.22 million barrels per day official quota). Kuwait’s oil price reached its peak at about US$ 122.1 per barrel during March 2012 and struck its lowest at US$ 92.8 per barrel in June 2012. The average price for 2012 was about US$ 108.6 per barrel versus US$ 105.7 per barrel for 2011, increasing by 2.7%.

Expenditures allocations in the current fiscal year’s budget scored about KD 21.240 billion, and revenues were estimated at KD 13.9324 billion including KD 1.1642 billion from non-oil revenues. Oil revenues were estimated at KD 12.768 billion (91.6% of total revenue). Oil

revenues were estimated based on the following criteria: crude oil production quota at 2.22 million barrels per day and approximate oil price at US$ 65 per barrel. After deducting production and marketing costs, the hypothetical budget deficit is estimated at KD 7.3076 billion.

However, oil market conditions were better than budget forecasts. The average Kuwaiti oil price per barrel for the first three quarters of the year -from April to December 2012- scored about US$ 105.9 per barrel, an increase by US$ 40.9 per barrel (62.9%) over the hypothetical price of the current budget of US$ 65 per barrel.

The monthly follow up report of the State’s accounts indicates that received revenues (oil and non-oil) until 31/10/2012 reached about KD 18.8558 billion against KD 4.1913 billion in actual expenditures during the same period. This means achieving a surplus of about KD 14.6645 billion. However, this surplus figure is not real and the real surplus figure will be less. Oil revenues for the entire fiscal year would hit the KD 30 billion limit; adding KD 1.2 billion in non-oil revenues, total revenues would score about KD 31.2 billion. With expenditures allocations at KD 21.24 billion, the

ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report

Volume 23 – Issue 1– 6th January 2013

 

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anticipated surplus would be around KD 10 billion for the entire fiscal year. The actual surplus figure will be within these limits if the average Kuwaiti oil price remains at the same current average (US$ 105.9 per barrel) for the period January - March 2013, which is more likely, and would exceed this limit by the saved amount in budget expenditures.

Public debt as of the end of November 2012 scored about KD 1835 million, about -7% below 2011 limit. Public debt tools comprise of long-term treasury bonds at about KD 1835 million (KD 1848 million in the end of 2011) and treasury bills with a zero balance (KD 125 million in the end of 2011). The average interest rate on 1-year treasury bonds scored 1%, and local banks account for 95.9% of total public debt. Public debt represented 4.1% of nominal GDP for 2011 which scored KD 44.4 billion.

As for fiscal policies and monetary indices, the Central Bank of Kuwait (CBK) reduced the discount rate on the dinar only once during 2012 by 0.50% from 2.50% to 2%. Money supply (M2) as at the end of November 2012 scored about KD 28.8953 billion, up by 4.1% over its balance in the end of 2011. Total credit facilities to residents from local banks in the end of November 2012 scored about KD 26.9193 billion which represent about 57.6% of total local banks’ assets, increasing by about KD 1.3078 billion or 5.1% growth versus the end of 2011. Total deposits at local banks in the end of November 2012 scored about KD 32.8952 billion, which accounts for 70.3% of total local banks’ liabilities (KD 30.738 billion

in the end of 2011), an increase by about KD 2.1572 billion (7%). Private sector clients captured about KD 27.750 billion (84.4%), out of total deposits, with KD 25.5502 billion, 92.1%, in Kuwaiti dinars. Deposits in foreign currencies for private sector clients scored KD 2.1998 billion.

Figures of Kuwait’s trade of foreign commodities indicate that total commodity exports until the end of the first half of 2012 scored about KD 17.590 billion, 93.5% of which were oil exports. Commodity imports -excluding the military- scored KD 3.724 billion. As such, trade balance surplus scored about KD 13.867 billion or KD 27.734 billion for the entire year, which is 28.5% higher than its counterpart figure in 2011 (KD 21.584 billion). However, the trade balance surplus for 2012 will depend mainly on the oil price movement. Therefore, it should be higher than our estimates, as indices indicate it might exceed the KD 30 billion limit.

On the regional level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -November 2012- anticipates GCC economies would continue prosperity and would achieve positive growth by 5.5% in 2012 (7.5% in 2011) with the lowest in Bahrain at about 2% and the highest in both Kuwait and Qatar at about 6.3%. On the global level, the global economy is expected to grow positively by 3.3% in 2012 (3.8% in 2011). The reason for this low performance is due to high relapse risks because of the crises over Europe and America’s sovereign debts, and the Arab Spring events.

ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report

Volume 23 – Issue 1– 6th January 2013

 

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As the domestic economy relies on oil by 93.5% of its exports and more than half of its GDP, it is vulnerable during 2013 to the risks of global economy relapse, if realized. However, it seems these risks are diminishing after Europe’s prudent measures, and after the last minute agreement in the USA which helped avoid the so-called “fiscal cliff”. IMF forecasts of weak oil market remain holding including weak growth by 1.9% for the Kuwaiti economy. However it remains endurable after a sustained positive and high growth for 3 years before. The concern remains from the likely continuation of a weak oil market in the medium-to-long terms.

2. The Comparative Performance of Selected Stock Markets

During 2012, which was a good year, 14 of the selected markets reflected the weak performance of 2011. 12 out of 14 markets ended 2012 with gains, 6 of which with double-digit growth (12 markets ended 2011 with a negative performance). That occurred although the global economy was passing through regressions out of fear of disintegration of the European Monitory Union or the United States economy, whose politicians are drafting policies for the fiscal cliff regarding handling the financial situation. Nevertheless, the Europeans in particular provided a highly responsible model to counter their problems. Italy, for instance, handed its management to technocrats; Greece provided a model to emulate in political sacrifice; and Germany offered its rational model in leadership even after losing its ally Sarkozy.

The German DAX led the markets in the positive zone with a 29.1% rise; the Indian market came next by 25.7%, then the Japanese Nikkei by achieving 22.9%. The Indian market was the biggest loser in 2011 with a -24.6% drop. This perhaps justifies its gains this year and not the good conditions of India. The other markets in the positive zone were led by Dubai market which gained 19.9% and came fourth. Abu Dhabi market came 6th with 9.5% gains, and in between them was the French market which achieved 15.2%. The Saudi market gained about 6% and came 8th after it was surpassed by the Dow Jones which came 7th with 7.3% gains in the last day of the year due to avoiding the fiscal cliff. The Saudi market lost most of its gains late in the year after it reached its high by 22.1% in the end of March 2012. Perhps the remark which is worth commenting is the rise of the Chinese market index in December alone by 14.6%, to move from the bottom of the negative zone to the positive zone by 3.2% gains. It’s worth mentioning that the Chinese market lost about -21.7% in 2011. What is worth studying and analyzing is the ability of the Chinese management to deal with what was believed to be an asset bubble that will burst, but it managed to steam it off without explosion. The weighted index of Kuwait stock market gained 3% which mainly occurred in the year end. It is believed that the increase in the market liquidity occurred for political reasons and stood behind supporting stock prices in the Kuwaiti market.

It was not surprising for Bahrain stock market to lose, as it occupied the bottom

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Volume 23 – Is

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ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report

Volume 23 – Issue 1– 6th January 2013

 

 5

The launching of “Kuwait 15” index mainly to read the top 15 stocks in terms of market cap in the market and partially to remedy faults of the price index was one of the most import events for the market in 2012. The issuing of the new trading system “Extreme” to cope with the development in the regional stock markets, noting that the new system faced difficulties when it was launched and is still under review and adjustment. The administrative status of the senior positions -Commissioners Panel and Stock Market Director- is still disputable. Some cases are still pending at courts, which adversely affects the stability of these institutions.

As for economic legislation, a new companies law was issued in an attempt to cope with the spirit of the age and to quit the rigidity of the old law in operation since the 1960. Its applications in the next few years will determine its success or failure. Last October, the Central Bank reduced the discount rate by half a percent from 2.5% to 2% to stimulate clients’ borrowing or to mitigate the burden on the existing debts, which will be reflected positively and indirectly on companies’ conditions. However, its direct impact on the market performance needs some time. There were some big deals at the stock market compared with the scale of the Kuwaiti economy, including NBK’s acquisition of the controlling stake in “Boubyan” Bank and the acquisition of the Qatari Q-tel for more control in Wataniya Telecom.

Analyzing market performance in 2012 and comparing the performance of the

participating companies between the end of 2011 and the end of 2012 (199 companies), we find that prices of 100 of them went up, mostly small ones, and represent 50.3% of the number of listed companies, while prices of 95 companies (47.7%) dropped and 4 companies remained unchanged.

On the other hand, market liquidity, i.e. trading value, went up to about KD 7.2 billion, increasing by about 18.9% as we indicated, vis-à-vis KD 6.1 billion for 2011. This liquidity equals 16.2% of nominal GDP value for 2011 which scored KD 44.4 billion, and about 24.9% of total market capitalization of about KD 28.9 billion for 199 companies in the end of 2012, after delisting 15 companies. The market cap of the listed companies equaled 65.2% of nominal GDP in 2011. Total market capitalization decreased by about KD 38.1 million (-0.1%) between the end of 2011 and the end of 2012.

Among the gaining companies -excluding the ones which either increased or decreased their capital- Mabanee led the list of the highest increase in market cap by about KD 248.9 million, followed by Wataniya Telecom by about KD 201.6 million, then Agility by KD 141.3 million. Among losers, ZAIN scored the highest drop in market value, decreasing by about KD 485.6 million, then NBK which dropped in value by KD 253.3 million, followed by Gulf Bank by KD 173 million.

On the 12 active sectors level, half of them declined led by the banking sector by an absolute decline of about KD 441.6

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Volume 23 – Is

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Volume 23 – Is

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ALSHALL Weekly Economic Report

Volume 23 – Issue 1– 6th January 2013

 

 8

Most Active Sectors & Companies % of Total Value Traded Description

Market KD Sectors 30.8% 28,199,798 BANKS SECTOR 27.7% 25,369,510 FINANCIAL SERVICES SECTOR 16.5% 15,102,839 REAL ESTATE SECTOR 10.1% 9,232,665 INDUSTRIALS SECTOR 8.7% 7,961,475 TELECOMMUNICATIONS SECTOR

% of Total Value Traded Description Market KD Companies 11.0% 10,053,983 NATIONAL BANK OF KUWAIT 9.5% 8,731,632 KUWAIT FINANCE HOUSE 8.1% 7,401,013 MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANY K.S.C 4.8% 4,386,285 ALSALAM GROUP HOLDING CO. K.S.C.C 4.2% 3,814,661 GULF BANK OF KUWAIT

37.5% 34,387,573 Total

Week 52 Week 1 ALSHALL INDEX 27/12/2012 03/01/2013

13 15 Increased Value (# of Companies) 17 7 Decreased Value (# of Companies) 11 19 Unchanged Value (# of Companies) 41 41 Total Companies

Company Name THU THU DIFF CLOSE DIFF

03/01/2013 27/12/2012 % 2012 % 1 The National Bank Of Kuwait 420.9 416.4 1.1 416.4 1.1 2 The Gulf Bank 294.8 294.8 0.0 294.8 0.0 3 Commercial Bank Of Kuwait 536.4 521.9 2.8 514.7 4.2 4 Al-Ahli Bank Of Kuwait 354.9 336.5 5.5 342.7 3.6 5 Kuwait International Bank 312.6 312.6 0.0 307.4 1.7 6 Bank Of Kuwait & The Middle East 505.2 505.2 0.0 493.1 2.5 7 Burgan Bank 428.0 428.0 0.0 428.0 0.0 8 Kuwait Finance House 1125.2 1125.2 0.0 1098.1 2.5 Banking Sector 464.3 459.8 1.0 456.6 1.7

9 Commercial Facilities Co 249.0 245.4 1.5 249.0 0.0 10 International Financial Advisors 364.7 368.8 (1.1) 352.6 3.4 11 National Investments 171.1 166.1 3.0 166.1 3.0 12 Kuwait Investment Projects 808.5 788.3 2.6 788.3 2.6 13 Coast Investment & Development 54.0 54.0 0.0 52.6 2.7

Investment Sector 320.6 314.7 1.9 314.6 1.9 14 Kuwait Insurance Company 63.9 59.5 7.4 59.5 7.4 15 Gulf Insurance Company 296.5 296.5 0.0 296.5 0.0 16 Al-Ahleia Insurance Company ِ 191.5 191.5 0.0 210.3 (8.9) 17 Warba Insurance Company 91.8 91.8 0.0 90.1 1.9

Insurance Sector 137.0 134.7 1.7 139.2 (1.6) 18 Kuwait Real Estate Company ِ 81.2 80.4 1.0 80.4 1.0 19 United Realty Company 244.7 240.6 1.7 244.7 0.0 20 National Real Estate Company 249.6 249.6 0.0 249.6 0.0 21 Salhiah Real Estate Company 1473.8 1494.0 (1.4) 1494.0 (1.4) 22 Pearl Of Kuwait Real Estate Co 41.5 42.8 (3.0) 40.8 1.7

Real Estate Sector 213.4 213.8 (0.2) 214.1 (0.3) 23 The National Industries 183.8 183.8 0.0 182.1 0.9 24 Kuwait Metal Pipe Industries Co 50.8 50.8 0.0 49.9 1.8 25 Kuwait Cement Co 670.8 663.3 1.1 670.8 0.0 26 Refrigeration Industries Co 78.7 78.0 0.9 78.0 0.9 27 Gulf Cable & Electrical Industries 503.6 503.6 0.0 503.6 0.0 28 Contracting & Marine Services Co 92.9 90.8 2.3 98.2 (5.4)

Industrial Sector 274.2 273.0 0.4 273.8 0.1

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Volume 23 – Issue 1– 6th January 2013

 

 9

29 Kuwait National Cinemas 564.9 564.9 0.0 564.9 0.0 30 Kuwait Hotels Company 112.2 112.2 0.0 112.2 0.0 31 The Public Warehousing Co 1709.7 1676.2 2.0 1709.7 0.0 32 Kuwait Commercial Markets Complex 119.3 161.1 (25.9) 128.6 (7.2) 33 Mobile Telecommunications Co - ZAIN 1727.4 1727.4 0.0 1696.2 1.8 34 Kuwait Computer Co 49.6 50.5 (1.8) 48.6 2.1

Services Sector 1355.8 1352.3 0.3 1338.5 1.3 35 Livestock Transport & Trading Co 136.7 140.0 (2.4) 135.0 1.3 36 United Fisheries Of Kuwait 70.6 71.6 (1.4) 70.6 0.0 37 Kuwait United Poultry Co 40.0 38.0 5.3 40.0 0.0 38 Kuwait Food Co 1714.5 1694.8 1.2 1714.5 0.0

Food Sector 598.0 592.0 1.0 597.6 0.1 39 Sharjah Cement Co 268.4 268.4 0.0 268.4 0.0 40 Gulf Cement Co 326.6 326.6 0.0 322.6 1.2 41 Umm Al-Qaiwain Cement Industries 434.1 434.1 0.0 426.8 1.7

Non Kuwaiti Companies 209.2 209.2 0.0 208.1 0.5 General Index 444.0 440.3 0.8 438.2 1.3