Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft General Manager

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Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft General Manager Blue Diamond Almonds Global Ingredients Division

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Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft General Manager Blue Diamond Almonds Global Ingredients Division. Almond Overview. Growth Drivers and Historical Context Current Year Overview Looking Ahead. The Global Middle Class. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft General Manager

Page 1: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

Almond PresentationJanuary 2013

Presented by - Bill Morecraft General Manager Blue Diamond Almonds Global Ingredients Division

Page 2: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

Almond Overview Growth Drivers and Historical Context Current Year Overview Looking Ahead

Page 3: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

The Global Middle Class

Page 4: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

The Global Middle Class is Evolving

The middle class is not easily defined “Purchasing Power Parity” (PPP)

Developing Economies = US $10,000 Established Economies = US $45,000 - $75,000

We have seen very diverse results in middle class growth when looking at developing economies versus economies with an established middle class

Two trends haven driven almond industry growth in recent years Growing Middle Class Growth in Healthy Eating Habits

Source: Euromonitor, “The Global Middle Class Sees Mixed Fortunes, October - 2012

Page 5: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

China India0

50

100

150

200

250

120.489.8

239

146

Rapidly Growing Middle Class in World’s Two Largest Countries

Number of Households (millions)

99% Growt

h63% Growt

h

2011 201120062006

Page 6: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

Almond Shipments to China Have Grown Nearly 1000%

Milli

ons

Poun

ds

Series10

50

100

150

200

250

21.8

236.2 2001-20022011-2012

Page 7: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

Almond Shipments to India Have Grown 145%

Milli

ons

Poun

ds

Series10

20

40

60

80

100

120

46.8

119.0 2001-20022011-2012

Page 8: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

2006 v 2011

Percent of Households With PPP of US $45,000 to US $75,000

USA Germany Japan0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

21.1%

26.9%

31.0%

20.4%

29.8%

30.4%

2006 v 2011

2006 v 2011

Page 9: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

Evolving Eating Habits

Busier Lifestyles•Shorter lunch breaks / working during lunch•Longer working hours•Longer commutes

Working Women•More women in workforce

and less time cooking•Demand for convenience•Healthy solutions

Snacking Fills the Mealtime Gaps

•Convenience / portability•Ability to eat on-the-go•Increase in healthy offerings, e.g. 100 calorie pack

Healthy Lifestyles•Desire to combine health & convenience• Lower sodium, less fat,

natural ingredients, functional ingredients

• Helps fuel demand for Western products in emerging marketsSource: Euromonitor, “Home Cooking & Eating Habits, A Global

Analysis. April - 2012

Page 10: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

Almond Industry Shipments5-year History

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 -

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

1,261,159 1,389,344 1,471,461

1,667,571

1,898,621

Milli

ons /

lbs.

18%10%

6%13%

14%

78% Growth

Between 2007-12

Page 11: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

Export Demand Comparisons

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 -

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

USAEuropeAsiaMiddle East

Milli

ons /

lbs.

Asia Growth 2007-2012154%

Source: Almond Board of California Position Reports. Asia does not include Australia or New Zealand. Middle East does not include Africa. Europe is inclusive of Western & Eastern Europe.

Page 12: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

Demand Share Comparisons

Eu-rope; 37%

Asia; 16%

Mid-dle

East; 7%

Do-mes-tic; 31%

Other; 9%

2007-2008

Europe; 28%

Asia; 27%

Middle East; 5%

Domestic; 29%

Other; 11%

2011-2012

Page 13: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

Current Crop Year Overview

Page 14: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

YTD December- Total Industry Shipments -.9%

YTD China +10%

YTD December 2012/13 YTD December

2011/12

-

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

North AmericaChina

155.8mm

255.2m

141.5m

North Americ

a +5%

267.7mm

Page 15: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

2012 California Almond Crop

Poun

ds

/ Bi

llions

July Objective Est. Sept. Harvest Latest Estimate

-

0.30

0.60

0.90

1.20

1.50

1.80

2.10

2.10

1.90 1.85

Series1

Page 16: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

Short Term Outlook

CY2007 /08 CY2008 /09 CY2009 /10 CY2010 /11 CY2011/12 FCY2012/13

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

18%

10%

6%

13%

14%

0.0438161075356338

Growth in Shipments vs. 2012 Supply Increase

Page 17: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

Yield Trend

Page 18: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

Trended Crop Projections

Page 19: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

Key Factors for Future Global demand can continue to grow,

driven by: Middle class growth in emerging economies Changing eating habits in mature

economies Global almond production will grow

slower in next 2-3 years, than in past decade

Almond pricing will reflect supply tightness for the near future

Page 20: Almond Presentation January 2013 Presented by - Bill Morecraft  General Manager

Questions?