ALLIED FORCES NORTH EUROPE

ALLIED FORCES NORTH EUROPE

Operational Analysis Support to a Operational Analysis Support to a Combined Joint Headquarters on a Crisis Combined Joint Headquarters on a Crisis

Response OperationResponse Operation

ALLIED EFFORT 01CJTF and CJFCC HQ in Wroclaw/ Poland

CJTF Headquarters

CJ 1PERS

CJ 2INTEL

CJ 3OPS

CJ 5PLANS

CJ 6CIS

CJ 9CIMIC

CJ 4LOG

Command Group

HQ Support CIS Support

CJ 8BUDFIN

CJENGINEER

SPECIALSPECIAL

STAFFSTAFF

PRIMARYPRIMARY

STAFFSTAFF

SUPPORTSUPPORT

MJLC

LEGADPOLADLIAISON PIO OA

CJTF HQ OA Composition

• Complement– 3 Staff Officer/Civilian Analyst– OA Trained with Experience– Augmentees

• Implementation– RHQ AFNORTH Special Staff– Analyst from NC3A– Limited Reach-back

OA Responsibilities

• Participates in HQ Processes• Provides OA Support to HQ Staff• Uses OA Methods to Provide Insights,

Results and Recommendations• Imports or Develops Tools• Liaises with OA in HQs and Outside• Identifies long-term theatre-wide issues for

further analysis

OA in the Decision Cycle

1400COM CJTF

Prep Meeting

1630COM CJTF VTC

1000COS VTC

0830Daily Staff Brief

0930JCB

1030JOPG

1200DARB

1500SACEUR

VTC

1330CLC

1400CICOM

1300IOWG

1300DOS/CO

Coord Mtg

Note 1

Note 2

1845Situational Awareness

COM CJTFHQ Conf

(Following the VTC)

0645 CG Situational Awareness

2000JCB WG

0100JCB WG

1200

1500

19000700

1100

Analysis

• Supporting Operational Planning– Situation Analysis

– Decision Support

– Course of Action Development and Comparison

– Risk Assessment

• Modelling Impact of Refugee Movements• Monitoring Compliance• …

Current LandSituation

Showing ZOS Forces and

Refugee Camps

Allied AllBridgeland Zircon Opal Coral Topaz

Antananarivo


Belo Tsiribihina


Beroroha


Fianarantsoa


Maintirano Allied AllBridgeland Zircon Opal Coral Topaz

Manakara


Mananjary


Miandrivazo


Morondava


Betroka


Ihosy


Morombe


Taolagnaro


Toliara


Ambilobe


Analalava

Main Battle Tank 1 or Main Battle Tank 2 or Main Battle Tank 3


Antsiranana



Antsohihy



Mahajanga


Nosy Be


Andapa


Antalaha


Mananara


Mandritsara


Maroantsetra


Sambava


Toamasina


Antsirabe





























































































1010101010



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Moramanga

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88888









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Current LandSituation

Showing Force Potential of Tanks

Decision SupportHQ Location Criteria

• Political– evenhandedness, perception

• Liaison (C2 Arrangements)– UNHR, CORAL, OPAL, Subordinate, IO,…

• Infrastructure– Transportation, HNS, Buildings, Access...– COMMS, Media

• Security• Handover

Operational RiskCORAL vs GFOR Air Forces

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

D D + 1 D + 2 D + 3 D + 4 D + 5 D + 6

CORAL Air Force

GFOR Air Force

Comparison of Force Strength

0100200300400500

600700800900

1000

TOPAZ CORAL

Fir

epow

er

CFLZOSNORTHOTHERBORDER

3:1

0100200300400500

600700800900

1000

TOPAZ CORAL

Fir

epow

er

CFLZOSNORTHOTHERBORDER

3:1

Ground Force Attrition with and without Contribution of Air

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Days

Gro

un

d F

orce

Pot

enti

al (

%)

CORALCORAL w/ AirTOPAZTOPAZ w/ Air

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refugees

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refugees


refugees


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refugees


1500015000150001500015000

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2500025000250002500025000

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92589258925892589258

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1210112101121011210112101

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2032820328203282032820328

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1000010000100001000010000

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refugees


58635863586358635863 refugees


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4040

50








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refugees


refugees


1182711827118271182711827

refugees


1500015000150001500015000

refugees


1421514215142151421514215

refugees


2500025000250002500025000

refugees


92589258925892589258

refugees


1210112101121011210112101

refugees


1425914259142591425914259

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1356713567135671356713567

refugees


2032820328203282032820328

refugees


1000010000100001000010000

refugees


1356713567135671356713567

refugees


1985319853198531985319853

refugees


58635863586358635863 refugees


1407314073140731407314073 refugees


4040

50

Impact of Refugee Movements on GFOR LOC

Non-compliance incidents

6

10

5

9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

D D +1

D +2

D +3

D +4

D +5

D +6

D +7

D +8

D +9

Total3 per. Mov. Avg. (Total)

NU

MB

ER

DVD

TIME

OF4s in one Room

Mee

ting

s w

itho

ut o

utpu

t

Morale

Availability of w

arm w

ater

Exercise Artificialities

Lessons Identified

• Exercise artificialities and data collection caused challenges.

• OA Team composition needs adjusting– Nucleus staff member, Admin, Skills

• OA Toolkit needs expanding– Challenge is to make it robust but manageable.

• Model development needs to be encouraged– Uncertainties during planning– Criteria for success in CRO– Joint aggregation and syncronization– Flexibile and responsive!

Conclusion

• Groundwork for OA in CJTF HQ laid

• Team-building achieved in HQ and analysis community

• HQ supported with analysis

• Skills and models tested against real world problems and operational timelines

• Valuable experience gained

ALLIED FORCES NORTH EUROPE

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