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    Behavioral Finance in Action

    Psychological challenges in the financial advisor/client relationship, and strategies to solve them

    By Shlomo Benartzi, Ph.D.

    Professor, UCLA Anderson School of Management,

    Chief Behavioral Economist, Allianz Global Investors

    Center for Behavioral Finance

     

    Part 1 – Introduction:Two Minds at Work 

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 1For financial professional use only.

    Kahneman uses the framework of “two minds” to describe

    the way people make decisions (Stanovich and West, 2000).

    Each of us behaves as if we have an “intuitive” mind, which

    forms rapid judgments with great ease and with no con-

    scious input; “knowing” that a new acquaintance is going

    to become a good friend on first meeting is one such judgment. We often speak of intuitions as “what comes

    to mind.”

     We also have a “reflective” mind, which is slow, analytical

    and requires conscious effort. Financial advisors engage

    this mind when they sit down with clients and calculate a

    retirement framework based on their risk profile, current

    circumstances and future goals.

    Most decisions that people make are products of the intui-

    tive mind, and they are usually accepted as valid by the

    reflective mind, unless they are blatantly wrong (Klein and

    Kahneman, 2009). Indeed, intuitive decisions are often

    correct , some impressively so (Gladwell, 2006). However, it

    is the errors of the intuitive mind, along with failures of the

    reflective mind, that interest behavioral finance academ-

    ics and have practical implications for how financial

    advisors work with their clients.

    Here’s an illustration of what is meant by intuitive mind,

    and how it sometimes leads one astray. Take a look at

    Diagram 1 below. If you haven’t seen it before you will

    immediately see that the bottom line is longer than the

    top line.

    Introduction

    Behavioral Finance: Two Minds at Work

    Behavioral finance is an extension of behavioral economics, which uses psychological

    insights to inform economic theory. When Daniel Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Prize

    in economics in 2002 for his contribution to behavioral economics, he was only the second

    psychologist to receive the economics prize. Part of Kahneman’s insight that led to the prize

    was his recognition of the important role of emotion and intuition in people’s decisionmaking, which in certain circumstances leads to systematic and predictable errors

    (Kahneman, 2003).

    Diagram 1:

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 2For financial professional use only.

    Now take two small pieces of paper – two Post-It Notes

    will work – and use them to cover the “fins” on the bottom

    line. As those who are familiar with t he diagram already

    know, you will discover that the lines are in fact the

    same length.

     You are the victim of an optical il lusion, the famous Müller-

    Lyer illusion. The visual perception part of your mind is

    tricked into seeing something that doesn’t exist, in thiscase because of the effect of the “fins.”

    The remarkable thing about this and other optical illusions

    is that even when you “know” the truth – that the lines are

    the same length – you still “see” one as being longer than

    the other. In the framework of the two minds, your reflec-

    tive mind knows the lines are the same length, but your

    intuitive mind sees them as being different. The output

    of the intuitive mind is so powerful that it overrides any

    attempt by the reflective mind to see the lines in any other

    way. You can’t help yourself. Intuitive judgments tend to beheld with greater confidence, too – another factor making

    them hard to override.

    One of the insights that earned Ka hneman the Nobel Prize1 

    is that we humans are sometimes as susceptible to “cogni-

    tive illusions” as we are to optical illusions. These illusions,

    also known as biases, result from the use of heuristics, or,

    more simply, mental shortcuts. For instance, people are

    “supposed” to make decisions based on the logic and

    1 Kahneman did all the important work that underpins behavioral economics

    with his colleague Amos Tversky, who had died before the Nobel Prize was

    awarded. Nobel Prizes are never awarded posthumously.

    substance of transactions, not on how they are superfi-

    cially described. When faced with a “choice” between

    having cold cuts that are “ninety percent fat free” or “con-

    taining ten percent fat,” people overwhelmingly select the

    first option. Logically, the two are identical of course, but

    people automatically respond negatively to “containing

    fat” and positively to “fat free,” and choose accordingly.

    This ubiquitous and powerful effect, the product of the

    intuitive mind, is called “ framing” (Tversky a ndKahneman, 1974).

     We can see, then, that intuit ion is a powerful force. And

    people typically place a great deal of faith in it. Kahneman’s

    discovery that under certain circumstances intuition can

    systematically lead to incorrect decisions and judgments

    changed psychologists’ understanding of decision making,

    and, ultimately, economists’, too.

    Classical economics held that people are rational, self-

    interested and have a firm grasp on self-control. Behavioraleconomics (and common sense) showed instead t hat we

    are not as logical as we might think, we do care about

    others, and we are not as disciplined as we would like to be.

    It is not that people are irrational in the colloquial sense,

    but that by the nature of how our intuitive mind works we

    are susceptible to mental shortcuts that lead to erroneous

    decisions. Our intuitive mind delivers the products of these

    mental shortcuts to us, and we accept them. It’s hard to

    help ourselves.

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 3For financial professional use only.

    Loss Aversion Is Fundamental

     At the core of many of these powerful but erroneous

    intuitions is people’s hyper-negative response to potential

    loss, or “loss aversion,” as described by Prospect Theory

    (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979). Simply put, losses loom

    larger than equal-sized gains. Psychologically speaking,

    the pain of losing $100 is approximately twice as great as

    the pleasure of winning the same amount. For this reason,most people are prepared to enter a 50:50 gamble of losing

    $100 on one hand, only if the sum to be won is at least $200.

    Loss aversion is a fundamental part of being human, and

    we are not alone in that. Yale economist M. Keith Chen did

    some ingenious preference experiments with capuchin

    monkeys in which they always finished up with one piece

    of apple. They got there in different ways, however, which

    affected the monkeys’ preferences. Sometimes the

    monkeys started off with two pieces of apple, one of which

    was taken away. At other times they started off with none,and were given one piece. The monkeys strongly preferred

    the second scenario, and disliked the first, where one piece

    of apple was taken from them (Chen, 2006).

    Psychologists speculate that loss aversion makes sense in

    terms of evolution and survival: better to be cautious and

    give that saber-toothed tiger a wide berth rather than take

    the risk of confronting it by yourself. Whatever its origin,

    loss aversion affects many of our decisions, including

    financial ones.

    For instance, people have a tendency to hold on to losing

    stocks too long. Selling a losing stock is extremely unpalat-

    able because it brings the reality of loss very much to mind.

    On the other hand, people often sell winning stocks too

    soon because the act of selling a winning stock realizes

    a gain, and that gives us pleasure. We feel pain when we

    realize a loss and pleasure when we realize a gain. The

    mistake people are making here is one of mental account-

    ing: instead of looking at their portfolio “as a whole” theylook at each stock separately, and make decisions based on

    these separately perceived realities.

    Loss aversion also makes people reluctant to make

    decisions for change because they focus on what they

    could lose more than on what they might gain. This is

    called “inertia,” or the status quo bias (Samuelson and

    Zeckhauser, 1988).

    Inertia is at play when people know they should be doing

    certain things that are in their best interests (saving forretirement, dieting to lose weight, or exercising), but find it

    hard to do today. Procrastination and lack of self-control

    rule the day. However, people are usually willing to say they

    will do the right thing at some point in the fut ure: “I’ll start

    that exercise program next week, I promise!”

      We make intuitive judgments

    all the time, but it’s very hard for

    us to tell which ones are right andwhich ones are wrong.”

    Nicholas Barberis,

     Yale School of Management

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 4For financial professional use only.

    “We make intuitive judgments all the time,” says Nicholas

    Barberis,2 a behavioral finance researcher at the Yale

    School of Management, “but it’s very hard for us to tell

    which ones are right and which ones are wrong.” (See

    Kahneman and Klein, 2009.) Behavioral finance research-

    ers have identified many circumstances in which the

    intuitive mind leads people to make money-related

    mistakes. For this paper, we have worked with these

    academic insights to develop techniques grounded inbehavioral finance that financial advisors can use to help

    their clients discriminate between wise intuitions and

    erroneous judgments.

    SMarT: A Powerful Example

    Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago and ShlomoBenartzi of UCLA 3 used some of the above psychological

    insights in one of the earliest, and most successful, ap-

    plications of behavioral finance, the Save More Tomorrow™

    program (SMarT). The problem is widespread: An alarm-

    ingly large proportion of employees fail to participate in

    their company’s defined contribution retirement plan,

    often forgoing matching funds (free money) from employ-

    ers. SMarT effectively removes psychological obstacles to

    saving in the short and longer term, and helps people

    overcome them with very little effort on their part. SMarT

    was designed around the psychological principles of

    2 Nicholas Barberis is a member of the Academic Advisory Board of the Allianz

    Global Investors Center for Behavioral Finance.

    3 Shlomo Benartzi is the Chief Behavioral Economist for the Allianz

    Global Investors Center for Behavioral Finance. Richard Thaler is a member

    of the Center’s Academic Advisory Board.

    inertia, loss aversion and immediate gratification and

    will be described in detail in the following section,

    Investor Paralysis.

    In the first case study of SMarT, employees at a midsize

    manufacturing company increased their contribution

    to their retirement fund from 3.5 percent to 13.6 percent

    of salary over a three-and-a-half-year period (Thaler and

    Benartzi, 2004). This is a remarkable improvement insaving behavior. As a result, the program is now offered by

    more than half of the large employers in the United States,

    and a variant of the program was incorporated in the

    Pension Protection Act of 2006 (Hewitt, 2010).

    “The lesson of the experience with the SMarT program,

    therefore, is general and powerful,” says Benartzi, “the

    strategic application of a few key psychological principles

    can dramatically improve people’s financial decisions.”

    Financial advisors can take advantage of such insights

    in their own practices to help their clients make better

    decisions which, ultimately, should lead to better

    financial outcomes.

    The lesson of the experience

    with the SMarT program…is general

    and powerful: the strategic application

    of a few key psychological principles

    can dramatically improve people’s

    financial decisions.”

    Shlomo Benartzi,

    UCLA Anderson School of Management

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 5For financial professional use only.

    The Path Ahead

    In the Behavioral Finance in Action series, we present

    three timely decision challenges and techniques from

    the “behavioral toolbox” to solve them:

    • Investor paralysis

    • Lack of investor discipline

    •  A crisis of trust

     We also present a tool in development that is designed

    to address a fourth decision challenge:

    • The disinclination to save.

    These four challenges might seem diverse and unrelated at

    first glance. But they are united by being, first, the product

    of our intuitive minds; and, second, they are susceptible to

    solution by the careful application of behavioral finance

    tools based on a few simple, psychological principles.

    BeFi-in-Action Framework

    Two minds:

    Intuitive mind (fast, automatic, effortless):

    Can often lead to wise decisions,but sometimes leadssystematically to irrational,poor financial decisions.

    Reflective mind (slow, conscious, effort ful):

    Can lead to more thoughtful,rational decisions. Advisors canengage their clients’ reflectiveminds to improve outcomes bycorrecting the mistakes of theintuitive mind.

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 6For financial professional use only.

    M. Keith Chen et al., “How Basic Are Behav-

    ioral Biases: Evidence from Capuchin Monkey

    Trading Behavior,” Journal of Political

    Economy , 114:3, pp 517 – 537 (2006).

    Malcolm Gladwell, Blink: The Power of

    Thinking Without Thinking, Hachette Book

    Group USA, paperback, 2006.

    Hewitt A ssociates, Hot Topics in Retirement ,

    2010.

    Daniel Kahneman, “Maps of Bounded Ratio-

    nality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics,”

    The American Economic Review , vol 93, no. 5,

    pp 1449 – 1475 (2003).

    Daniel Kahneman and Gary Klein, Conditions

    for intuitive expertise: A failure to disagree.

     American Psychologist , vol 64, no. 4, pp 515 –526 (2009).

    Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky,

    “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decisions

    Under Risk,” Econometrica, vol 47, no. 2,

    pp 263 – 291 (1979).

    William Samuelson and Richard Zeckhauser,

    Status Quo Bias in Decision Making, Journal of

    Risk and Uncertainty , vol 1, pp 7 – 59 (1988).

    Keith E. Stanovich and Richard F. West,

    “Individual Differences in Reasoning:

    Implications for the Rationality Debate,”

    Behavioral and Brain Sciences, vol 23, no. 5,

    pp 645 – 665 (2000).

    Richard Thaler and Shlomo Benartzi,

    “Save More Tomorrow: Using Behavioral

    Economics to Increase Employee Saving,”

     Journal of Political Economy , vol 112, no. 1,

    pt 2, pp S164 – S187 (2004).

    Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman,

    “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics

    and Biases,” Science, vol 185, pp 1124 – 1131

    (1974).

    References

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    Behavioral Finance in Action

    Psychological challenges in the financial advisor/client relationship, and strategies to solve them

    By Shlomo Benartzi, Ph.D.

    Professor, UCLA Anderson School of Management,

    Chief Behavioral Economist, Allianz Global Investors

    Center for Behavioral Finance

     

    Part 2 – Overcoming Investor Paralysis:Invest More Tomorrow

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 1For financial professional use only.

     What is the cure for this paralysis? University of Chicago

    behavioral economist Richard Thaler prescribes this:

    “Devise a plan that you will actually be able to implement,

    even when confronted with the inevitable distractions

    and temptations.”

    The question, of course, is, “What would such a plan look

    like?” Here we offer a solution based on the success of the

    Save More Tomorrow™ (SMarT) program. SMarT is a

    savings enhancement plan that utilizes an understanding

    of the psychological obstacles people face when trying to

    save more money. Some of the key psychological hurdles

    here are also at play in preventing people from getting back

    into the market. We therefore suggest a relatively simple

    idea that draws on the principles of SMarT. Let’s call it

    “Invest More Tomorrow.”

    Here we briefly describe SMarT to illustrate the psycho-

    logical factors at play. We then present the Invest More

    Tomorrow strategy, outlining the actions financial

    advisors can take to implement it.

    Save More Tomorrow

    The SMarT program is designed to help people achieve

    what they say they want to, by working around the psycho-

    logical factors (indicated in italics) that stand in their way(Thaler and Benartzi, 2004). There are four ingredients

    to the program:

    1. Employees are invited to pre-commit to increase their

    saving rate in the future. Because of procra stination,

    most people find it easier to imagine doing the right

    things in the future, similar to our New Year resolutions

    to start exercising and dieting next year.

    2. For those employees who do enroll, their first increase

    in savings coincides with a pay raise so that their take-

    home pay does not go down. This avoids triggering themind’s hypersensitivity to loss, or loss aversion.

    3. The contribution rate continues to increase automati-

    cally with each successive pay raise until a previously

    agreed upon ceiling is reached. Here, inertia is working

    in people’s best interest, ensuring that people stay in

    the plan and the contribution rate increases.

    Overcoming Investor Paralysis:Invest More Tomorrow

    The psychological fallout of the financial crisis that erupted late in 2008 was profound.

     As often happens in circumstances like these, investment paralysis has been ubiquitous.

    Record amounts of cash are still sitting on the sidelines, with people alternating between

    the fear that the bear market has not really gone away and the potential ignominy of missing

    out on a new bull market. It is not just investors who are paralyzed. Financial advisors,

    being human too, are weighing the risk of being wrong against the chance of being right.

     And this sometimes leads to a kind of paralysis of their own.

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 2For financial professional use only.

    4. Employees may opt out of the plan at any time they

    choose, though experience shows that people rarely do.

    This provision makes them more comfortable about

     joining in the first place.

    SMarT has been a striking success, almost quadrupling the

    average contribution rate from 3.5 to 13.6 percent of salary

    over a three-year period when first applied in 1998. This

    illustrates that having the right psychology applied judiciously in a financial domain can dramatically

    improve outcomes.

    Invest More Tomorrow

    There are sufficient important similarities between the

    reluctance to enter the market and the inability to contrib-ute adequately to defined contribution plans to make a

    similar solution feasible. There are two parts to the Invest

    More Tomorrow strategy: first, overcoming the fear of

    seeing the value of the portfolio decline, or loss aversion;

    and second, overcoming the strong tendency to put off

    until tomorrow what one should be doing today, or

    procrastination.

    Overcoming loss aversion

    By far the most important psychological factor in investor

    paralysis is loss aversion. When people see the value of

    their portfolio decline, their intuitive mind reacts nega-

    tively, and they experience psychological pain. And, says

    Thaler, “people are even more averse to the prospect  of

    future losses when they have experienced loss in the recent

    past, as most people did during the 2008 financial crisis.”

    (See Thaler and Johnson, 1990.) Under these circumstanc-

    es, people become much more reluctant than usual to take

    risks. In other words, investor paralysis now.

    How can this be overcome? By means of what we can call

    “fuzzy mental accounting.” Prospect Theory, which recog-

    nized the cogency of loss aversion, showed that in judging

    gains and losses, people are exquisitely sensitive to what is

    called the “reference point” (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).If an investor were to put all their cash into the market in

    one single transaction, then that amount of money would

    become the reference point. Any movement of the market

    that increased or decreased the value of the investment,

    above or below the reference point, would then be very

    easily calculated. And the intuitive mind would respond

     very negatively to losses.

    If, however, a client were to invest a specific proportion of

    his portfolio, say 25 percent, at regular intervals, such as

    every three months, then there is no readily obvious refer-

    ence point. There is no single figure against which to

    measure performance. In which case, loss aversion is

    much less likely to kick in.

    People are even more averseto the prospect of future losses

    when they have experienced loss

    in the recent past, as most people

    did during the 2008 financial crisis.”

    Richard Thaler,University of Chicago,

    Booth School of Business

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 3For financial professional use only.

    Suppose the investments made in the first entry into the

    market under this strategy were initially to lose value.

    The client is likely to say, “Oh, I only invested a small

    portion of my cash, and now I see an opportunity to buy

    cheap with my next purchase.” The intuitive mind isn’t

    spooked, and the reflective mind can be engaged to

    consciously turn a potentially aversive situation into

    an opportunity.

    This investment strategy is well known, of course, as dollar

    cost averaging. But people have now seen that dollar cost

    averaging can’t protect against losses when the entire

    market collapses, as it recently did. While they were more

    willing to try it in the past they are afraid to do so now.

    They may, however, be willing to contemplate doing it in

    the future. Which brings us to procrastination, the second

    barrier to breaking through investor paralysis.

    Overcoming procrastination

    SMarT worked around procrastination by asking people

    to commit to increasing their contribution rate many

    months in advance. Pre-commitment is important,

    because it is psychologically palatable, and is linked to

    the desired action actually taking place rather than just

    a vague promise.

    In the same way, a financial advisor could ask his/her clientif he/she is willing to commit  to going into the market at

    some specific point in the future. If the answer is yes, then

    the question becomes, “OK, when do you think market con-

    ditions will be favorable to take that initial step?” This puts

    the timing of the strategy in the hands of the client, rather

    than having it imposed. As a result, the client feels both in

    control and committed to the agreed-upon action. With a

    specific answer to that question, the Invest More Tomorrow

    strategy becomes an informal agreement between finan-

    cial advisor and client.

    Pre-commitment to begin investing at a specific point in

    the future is the key psychological element here, because it

    doesn’t trigger the intuitive mind’s aversion to doing what

    is right today. Procrastination is conquered, and the

    periodic investment program begins.

     Although the strateg y as envisaged at present is not on

    autopilot like SMarT (the agreed-upon purchases still

    have to be made), pre-commitment engages the benefit

    of inertia: it is not a question of whether  to buy at that point

    in time, but rather what  to buy. The Invest More Tomorrow

    strategy is a relatively simple overlay on the existing

    investment plans financial advisors have worked out

    with their clients. Its purpose is to overcome investor

    paralysis so that those plans can go into effect rather

    than remaining stalled.

    Invest More Tomorrow

    is a simple strategy that provides

    an action framework that eases

    anxiety for both clients and

    financial advisors by attending

    to the psychology underlying

    investor paralysis.”

     John Payne,Fuqua School of Business,

    Duke University

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 4For financial professional use only.

    Observes Duke University Business School professor John

    Payne1: “Invest More Tomorrow is a simple strategy that

    provides an action framework that eases anxiety for both

    clients and financial advisors by attending to the psychol-

    ogy underlying investor paralysis.”

    1 John Payne is a member of the Academic Advisory Board of the Allianz

    Global Investors Center for Behavioral Finance.

    Invest More Tomorrow

    BeFi-in-Action:

    1. Invite clients to pre-commit to begininvesting at a specific time in thefuture and ask them to set the datefor that action.

    2. Work with clients to agree on the size

    and frequency of periodic investments.

    3. Decide in advance on the nature ofassets to be purchased.

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 5For financial professional use only.

    Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky,

    “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decisions

    Under Risk,” Econometrica, vol 47, no. 2,

    pp 263 – 291 (1979).

    Richard Thaler and Shlomo Benartzi,

    “Save More Tomorrow: Using Behavioral

    Economics to Increase Employee Saving,”

     Journal of Political Economy , vol 112, no. 1,pt 2, pp S164 – S187 (2004).

    Richard Thaler and Eric Johnson, “Gambling

    with the House Money and Trying to Break

    Even,” Management Science, vol 36, no. 6,

    pp 643 – 660 (1990).

    References

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    Behavioral Finance in Action

    Psychological challenges in the financial advisor/client relationship, and strategies to solve them

    By Shlomo Benartzi, Ph.D.

    Professor, UCLA Anderson School of Management,

    Chief Behavioral Economist, Allianz Global Investors

    Center for Behavioral Finance

     

    Part 3 – Reining in Lack of Investor Discipline:The Ulysses Strategy 

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 1For financial professional use only.

     According to standard economic theory, people make in-

     vestment decisions based on a rational analysis of the

    present value and future prospects of equities. It is clear

    from his advice to investors, however, that the Oracle of

    Omaha recognizes that factors other than rational analysis

    are sometimes at play.

    Buffett understands from his years of experience that in-

     vestors often buy high and sell low. They also often buy thewrong stocks, sell the wrong stocks and, in normal times,

    do far too much buying and selling. Academic insights

    from Behavioral Finance help explain why people behave

    the way they do, and they offer practical solutions to finan-

    cial advisors to help their clients make better investment

    decisions. The idea is that people are not being stupid,

    they are just human.

    Here, we introduce The Ulysses Strategy, which engages

    the reflective mind for rational short- and long-term

    investment strategies, thereby avoiding the errors thatthe intuitive mind is otherwise prone to make.

    More Than Just Fear and Greed

    Financial advisors are well aware of the herd mentality of

    humans, which sometimes leads individual investors to

    buy high and sell low, by plunging into rising markets and

    fleeing when markets fall (Bikhchandani et al., 1992; Gal-

    braith, 1993). But there are other psychological issues at

    play in the behavior of individual investors, beyond fear

    and greed, impulses that flow from the intuitive mind.

    Overconfidence is as strong an urge in humans as the herd

    instinct. It leads people to believe they can outperform the

    market, and seduces them to trade stocks at an irrationally

    high rate. It’s a costly path to follow. One study of 66,465

    individual investors over a six-year period in the United

    States found that the average investor turned over 75

    percent of his/her portfolio each year. Transaction costs

    associated with this excessive trading reduced net perfor-

    mance by 3.7 percent compared with the market as a

    whole. Investors who traded most (in the top quintile) dideven worse: these people turned over their portfolios more

    than twice each year, and as a result suffered a 10.3 percent

    reduction in net performance (Barber and Odean, 2000;

    see also Daniel et al.,1998). This is the expenses trap that

    Buffett mentioned in his letter.

    Reining in Lack of Investor Discipline:The Ulysses Strategy

    In characteristically provocative manner, Warren Buffett had this advice for investors

    in his 2004 Chairman’s Letter: “Investors should remember that excitement and expenses

    are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they

    should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.”

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 2For financial professional use only.

     A separate study of transact ions in 19 major international

    stock markets produced equally salutary warnings against

    the urge to beat the market by too frequently buying and

    selling securities. Between 1973 and 2004, the average

    “penalty” for repeated buying and selling as opposed to a

    buy-and-hold strategy in these markets was 1.5 percent

    (Dichev, 2007).

    Faced with thousands of possibilities, individual investorsare ill-equipped to make rational decisions about which

    stocks to buy. Most people simply don’t have the t ime or

    expertise to find fairly valued stocks or under-valued

    stocks. As a substitute for appropriate analysis, many

    people unconsciously fall back on a simple rule of thumb,

    or heuristic: What stocks are in t he news? Buy them.

     Apparently, it matters not at all why a company happens to

    be in the news – the launch of a new product, large one-day

    moves on the market (up or down), even a scandal involv-

    ing the CEO – these stocks are bought disproportionately

    by individual investors (Barber and Odean, 2008). This is

    the intuitive mind taking t he easy way to making a choice,

    one that, if ful ly engaged, the reflective mind might reject.

    Inevitably, attention-driven buying pushes prices beyond

    true value, and investors once again do less well than

    they expect.

    The intuitive mind is at work in the very common mistakes

    people make in selling stocks they already own. The

    rational investor would sell losers and hold on to winners.

    But this is not what individual investors commonly do:

    They sell winners too early and losers too late. This error is

    called the disposition effect.

    This is how it works for investors. An individual who owns

    a stock that has appreciated significantly faces a choice:hold or sell. If they sell, they lock in a gain, and they feel

    good about that. But by selling they forfeit any possibility

    of further price appreciation and accept the certainty of

    paying taxes on their profit. If a stock has lost value,

    however, the investor faces the prospect of admitting a loss

    if they sell, and that feels very bad. Loss aversion kicks in

    and most investors choose instead to hold on to the stock.

    They now face the possibility of further deterioration in

    price, and the certainty of passing up tax advantages if

    they were to sell, which is what they perhaps should do.

    The disposition effect is the result of mental accounting.

    The rational investor would be interested in the overall

    return of their portfolio, and be content to say, “You win

    some, you lose some, but overall it’s doing well.” Instead,

    the typical investor treats the portfolio as a series of invest-

    ing “episodes.” A winning stock offers the opportunity to

    sell, and so lock in a gain, and the investor experiences the

    pleasure of that gain. They sell. This is a positive investing

    episode. A losing stock offers the prospect of incurring a

    loss, and experiencing the pain that goes with it. They hold,

    and in so doing avoid a negative investing episode

    (Barberis and Xiong, 2010).

      Stock markets often move

    in response to many factorsunrelated to true value.”

    Shlomo Benartzi,

    UCLA Anderson School of Management

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 3For financial professional use only.

    Stock markets often move in response to many factors

    unrelated to true value. For instance, a commercial plane

    crash in the United States that kills 75 people or more

    typically causes the N YSE briefly to shed around $60 billion

    in value. This reduction in market value contrasts with the

    actual economic cost of such incidents (incurred by the

    airline and insurance companies) of around $1 billion

    (Kaplanski and Levy, 2010). In countries where soccer is a

    major sport, a loss by the national team leads to a signifi-cant decline in that country’s stock market (Edmans et al.,

    2007). And weather – gloom or shine – has been found

     variously to affect stock markets, too (Laughran and

    Schultz, 2004; Hirshleifer and Shumway, 2003).

    Investor mood associated with irrational fear of plane

    crashes or the ignominy of one’s national team losing,

    is apparently at work here. The resulting dark mood causes

    investors to view future economic conditions more

    pessimistically, so t hey favor selling rather than buying.

     As you have seen here, and as Columbia School of Business

    professor Kent Daniel1 observes, “The evidence that

    investor emotions are inf luencing prices of securities is

    1 Kent Daniel is a member of the Academic Advisory Board of the Allianz

    Global Investors Center for Behavioral Finance.

    becoming overwhelming.” No less a figure than former

    Fed chairman Alan Greenspan admitted as much while

    appearing before the House Committee on Oversight and

    Government Reform in October 2008. He said of the idea of

    self-correcting markets: “The whole intellectual edifice …

    collapsed in the summer last year.” The challenge for be-

    havioral finance is to find ways to help people not go with

    the crowd, and not be susceptible to the errors of the intui-

    tive mind. Here we offer such a solution.

    The Ulysses Strategy 

    The phrase “Ulysses contract” refers to a decision made

    in the present to bind oneself to a particular course of

    action in the future. It derives from a strategy t hat Ulysses

    adopted on his journey home from the Trojan wars,which took him and his ship’s crew close to the Sirenusian

    islands. The islands were famous for being home to the

    Sirens, whose songs were so irresistibly seductive that

    seamen felt impelled to fling themselves into the waters,

    in an attempt to reach the Sirens. No seaman ever survived,

    so no living human knew the nature of the Sirens’ songs.

    Ulysses wanted to be the first human to hear the songs,

    and survive. He instructed his crew to fill their ears with

    beeswax, to block out the sound, and then tie him securely

    to the mast and to ignore his pleas to be released, should

    he do so. The plan worked. Ulysses heard the Sirens’ songs,

    the crewmen ignored his entreaties to be untied and when

    they were out of earshot, he gave a pre-arranged signal to

    The evidence that investor

    emotions are influencing prices of

    securities is becoming overwhelming.”

    Kent Daniel,

    Graduate School of Business,

    Columbia University

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 4For financial professional use only.

    take out the ear plugs and release him. Ulysses had com-

    mitted himself to a rational course of action at a neutral

    time, that is before he could hear the Sirens’ songs, and

    ensured that he stuck with his decision. This action of

    pre-commitment is the work of the ref lective mind.

    In the same way, financial advisors could invite their

    clients to engage their reflective mind to pre-commit to

    a rational investment strategy in advance of movementsof the market that might otherwise tr igger irrational re-

    sponses of the intuitive mind. This kind of Ulysses Strategy

    has been shown to work with the Save More Tomorrow

    program (Thaler and Benartzi, 2004), in a pilot savings

    product in the Philippines (Ashraf et al., 2006) and in a

    program to help smokers quit, which involved participants

    depositing a sum of money in an account that they would

    forfeit if they relapsed (Giné et al., 2008). Pre-commitment

    to a rational investment plan is important, because the

    intuitive impulse to act otherwise is strong.

    The first step in the process is to help your clients under-

    stand the psychology of trading by individual investors

    that can lead to poor decisions. Help them understand that

    these misguided impulses of the intuitive mind are quite

    natural, but that there is another, better path to follow,

    one that is guided by the ref lective mind.

    The second step is to agree on an investment strategy,

    which would include an acceptable balance between risky

    and conservative instruments. As financial advisors, you

    are already very familiar with this. What would be novel for

    most advisors, however, is to commit to a specific contin-

    gency plan. This is an agreement made in advance about

    what action will be taken should a certain event or condi-

    tion occur: for example, if the market goes up 25 percent

    or if the market goes down 25 percent.

    The third component of the Ulysses Strategy is to formalize

    these agreements in a commitment memorandum, to

    which both the client and the financial advisor are par ties

    (see Appendix A for a sample memorandum). Although

    research shows that financial professionals are less

    affected by the impulses of the intuitive mind, they a re not

    completely immune to them (Barber and Odean, 2000).

     And by being co-signatories to the memorandum, finan-

    cial advisors put themselves on the same footing as theirclients. This memorandum is not binding, in the sense of a

    legal contract. But the act of writing down the agreements

    and putting one’s signature to it helps people resist the

    siren call of the intuitive mind. It helps clients stick with

    the plan when changes in market conditions might tempt

    them to go with the herd, and make unwise decisions.

     And it helps financial advisors honor the agreement, too.

    The Ulysses Strategy

    BeFi-in-Action:

    1. Help clients understand the sometimesimpulsive nature of investment decisions.

    2. Discuss and agree upon what actionwould be taken when, for example, themarkets move 25 percent up or down.

    3. Draw up a commitment memorandum,with both client and advisor as signatories.(See sample memorandum, appendix Apage 6.)

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 5For financial professional use only.

    Nava Ashraf et al ., “Tying Ulysses to the

    Mast: Evidence from a commitment savings

    product in the Philippines,” The Quarterly

     Journal of Economics, pp 635 – 672,

    May 2006.

    Nicholas Barberis and Wei Xiong, “Realization

    Utility,” 2010, http://badger.som.yale.edu/

    faculty/ncb25/rg40d.pdf

    S. Bikhchandani et al., “A theory of fads,

    fashion, custom, and cultural change as

    informational cascades,” Journal of Political

    Economy , vol 100, no. 5, pp 992 – 1026 (1992).

    Brad M. Barber and Terrance Odean, “Trading

    Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The common

    stock investment performance of individual

    investors,” The Journal of Finance, vol LV, no. 2,

    pp 773 – 806 (2000).

    Brad M. Barber and Terrance Odean,

    “All that Glitters: The Effect of Attention and

    News on the Buying Behavior of Individual

    and Institutional Investors,” The Review of

    Financial Studies, vol 21, no. 2, pp 785 – 818

    (2008).

    Kent Daniel et al., “Investor Psychology and

    Security Market Under- and Over-Reactions,”

    The Journal of Finance, vol LIII, no. 6, pp 1839

    – 1885 (1998).

    Ilia D. Dichev, “What Are Stock Investors’

    Actual Historical Returns?” The American

    Economic Review , vol 97, no. 1, pp 386 – 401

    (2007).

    A. Edmans et al ., “Sports Sentiment and Stock

    Returns,” Journal of Finance, vol 62, pp 1967 -

    1998 (2007).

     John Galbraith, A Short History of Financial

    Euphoria, Whittle Books in association with

    Viking, New York, 1993.

    Xavier Giné et al., “Put Your Money Where

    Your Butt Is: A commitment savings account

    for smoking cessation,” American Economics

     Journal , vol 2, no. 4, pp 213 – 235 (2010).

    David Hirshleifer and Tyler Shumway,

    “Good Day Sunshine: Stock returns and the

    weather,” The Journal of Finance, vol 58, no. 3,

    pp 1009 – 1032 (2003).

    Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky,

    “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decisions

    Under Risk,” Econometrica, vol 47, no. 2,

    pp 263 – 291 (1979).

    Guy Kaplanski and Haim Levy, “Sentiment

    and Stock Prices: The Case of Aviation Disas-

    ters,” Journal of Financial Economics, vol 95,

    pp 174 – 201 (2010).

    T. Loughran and P. Schultz, “Weather, Stock

    Returns, and the Impact of Localized trading,”

     Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 

    vol 39, no. 2, pp 343 – 364 (2004).

    References

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 6For financial professional use only.

     Appendix A

    Sample Commitment Memorandum

     A commitment memorandum drawn up between

    a financial advisor and his/her client can help the

    client avoid making unwise investment decisions.

     A sample memorandum might read something

    like this:

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    Behavioral Finance in Action

    Psychological challenges in the financial advisor/client relationship, and strategies to solve them

    By Shlomo Benartzi, Ph.D.

    Professor, UCLA Anderson School of Management,

    Chief Behavioral Economist, Allianz Global Investors

    Center for Behavioral Finance

     

    Part 4 – Regaining and Maintaining Trust:Competence + Empathy 

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 1For financial professional use only.

     A July 2010 Gallup Poll ranks financial institutions 11th out

    of 16 institutions in the United States in terms of public

    trust. Only television news, Labor, Big Business, HMOs

    and Congress score lower, in that order. According to the

    Chicago Booth/Kellogg School Financial Trust Index, at the

    beginning of 2009 only 34 percent of Americans expressedtrust in financial institutions.

    Financial advisors are often tarred by the same brush and

    many now face clients whose confidence in them has been

    undermined.

    The bruised psychological state of investors has been

    likened to the feelings of betrayal following the discovery

    of a partner’s affair. Just as in repairing such a relationship,

    regaining trust with clients in the aftermath of the finan-

    cial crisis requires humility, patience and hard work.Regaining trust is a top priority for financial advisors, even

    if their strategies did not lead directly to clients’ losses

    (Gounaris and Prout, 2009).

    1 Noah Goldstein is a member of the Academic Advisory Board of the Allianz

    Global Investors Center for Behavioral Finance.

     As financial advisors know very well, their client relation-

    ships have two components: the technical and the

    personal. “Active demonstrations of professional compe-

    tence and personal empathy have been identified as key

    to building and maintaining trust,” notes Noah Goldstein,1 

    of the UCLA Anderson School of Management (see Gärlinget al., 2009). The following BeFi-in-Action strategies are

    applicable not just to regaining trust in current circum-

    stances, but also to maintaining trust in the ongoing

    financial advisor/client relationship. Some of these

    strategies might at first seem commonplace, but we

    add a unique angle on them, often backed up by social

    science research.

    Regaining and Maintaining Trust:Competence + Empathy

    Investor paralysis is just one important consequence of the recent financial crisis.

     A second, related corollary is its impact on the bond of trust that exists between financial

    advisors and their clients. The Nobel laureate economist Kenneth Arrow is often quoted

    as saying, “Virtually every commercial transaction has within itself an element of trust”

    (Arrow, 1972). This is especially true of the financial advisor/client relationship

    (Guiso et al., 2008).

      Active demonstrations of

    professional competence and personal

    empathy have been identified as key

    to building and maintaining trust.”

    Noah Goldstein,

    UCLA Anderson School of Management

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 3For financial professional use only.

    downside and upside are presented is crucial to how the

    whole is perceived. In this case, clients will be more

    trusting of positive claims about a product or service if

    the positive claims are preceded by one or two negative

    claims. These are known to social scientists as “two-sided

    messages” (Bohner et al., 2003). By talking about the

    downside first, the financial advisor is displaying honesty

    that elicits a greater willingness in the listener to trust

    what is then said about the upside.

    Note that this does not mean that the very first thing you

    say about the product needs to be negative. Ideally, you

    could mention one positive argument for the product,

    followed by a potential downside, followed immediately

    by the strongest argument for the product. The reason for

    this narrative str ucture is that social science research

    shows that people are more likely to remember the first

    and last things you say about something (Atkinson and

    Shiffrin, 1968).

     Display evidence of competence. Here’s a story of a physi-

    cians’ practice that struggled with the common problem

    of patient non-compliance with exercise therapy designed

    to speed recuperation. No amount of explaining to patients

    the importance of the exercises made for a significant

    improvement in compliance. The physicians’ assistants

    engaged a consultant to find a solution. On visiting the

    practice’s offices, the consultant noticed that there were

    no professional credentials to be seen. The consultant

    advised the physicians’ assistants to prominently

    display all relevant certificates and diplomas. Patient

    compliance immediately leapt by more than 20 percent

    (Goldstein, 2011).

    This dramatically improved outcome is hardly rational.

    If asked, the patients would have surely acknowledged that

    they knew the physicians’ assistants would not be able to

    practice without the required certification. Yet when these

    credentials were clearly visible, patients’ compliance

    soared. From a psychological perspective, this improved

    outcome was not a matter of patients’ reflective minds

    thinking, “Hm, look at all those diplomas. These people

    must really know what they are doing. I had better do asthey tell me.” Rather, making evidence of competence

    salient in the professional environment triggered an un-

    conscious response in the intuitive mind, in this case in a

    positive direction.

    If you don’t do so already, know that displaying professional

    credentials is not a sin of ostentation. Rather, it helps your

    clients more readily see who you are, professionally, and

    what you have achieved.

      Displaying professional credentials

    is not a sin of ostentation. Rather, it

    helps your clients more readily see

    who you are, professionally, and what

    you have achieved.”

    Shlomo Benartzi,

    UCLA Anderson School of Management

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 4For financial professional use only.

    Exhibiting Empathy 

    Most financial advisors know very well that there is more to

    the advisor/client relationship than just shaping an invest-

    ment portfolio: there is the human side of the relationship,

    too. Those financial advisors who place great value on this

    aspect of their interaction with clients should know that

    their intuition to do so is strongly supported by research.

    This research shows that paying genuine attention to thehuman element in business transactions improves all

    bottom-line measures (Pfeffer, 1998). Putting value on the

    human side of business has been described as “relational

    intelligence” (Saccone, 2009).

    In the context of regaining and maintaining tr ust, there-

    fore, exhibiting empathy with a client is not just “being

    nice”: it is good business practice. And most financial

    advisors know that exhibiting individualized care to their

    clients is an integral part of the way they need to work,

    in order to serve their clients most effectively. Here area few actions around exhibiting empathy that may be

    less obvious.

     Have frequent contact with clients, especially in diff icult

    times. As we all know, maintaining relationships requires

    frequent interactions. When those contacts are made are,

    however, even more important. “Financial advisors find

    talking with clients during prosperous times to be easy,

    and even rewarding,” notes Goldstein. “But clients need

    contact with their financial advisors most urgently during

    difficult economic times, when they are facing uncertainty

    and worry.” These difficult times offer an opportunity to

    strengthen the relationship. Good financial advisors push

    aside the inclination to avoid contact at these times, and

    call their clients more frequently than before, thus provid-

    ing emotional support. They are regarded not only as

    competent, but also as trustworthy. Their example is

    worth emulating.

     Allay embarrassment. Have you ever asked a client,

    “Is there anything about our strategy you don’t under-

    stand?” It is a perfectly valid, and very professional,

    question because it comes from a desire to ensure that thefinancial advisor/client relationship is on a sound footing.

     After all, no financial advisor wants a client to be going

    along with a strategy that he/she doesn’t fully grasp.

    However, the wording of the question might not elicit the

    truth. Many people don’t like to admit ignorance. A client

    might not understand everything, but will nevertheless

    answer, “No, there isn’t,” rather than face that embarrass-

    ment. A slightly different wording of the same question,

    such as “Is there anything about our strategy that I can

    clarify?” allows the client to admit ignorance without it

    being so labeled. The same goal is achieved.

    Seek feedback. Seeking feedback from clients is a standard

    part of the financial advisor/client relationship. But, once

    again, this is especially important in challenging

    economic times. A financial advisor might therefore ask,

    “Is there anything I can do to improve my service to you

    in this difficult climate?” This is a win-win question, for

    several reasons. To begin with, the financial advisor is

    showing concern to be doing better for his/her client. If the

    answer is “Yes,” then an opportunity has been opened to

    improve the professional relationship. If the answer is “No,”

    then the financial advisor can be content with what he/she

    is offering. At the same time, something psychologically

    quite interesting happens in the client’s mind.

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 5For financial professional use only.

    By publicly stating that the financial advisor is providing

    excellent service, that notion is reinforced in the client’s

    mind, as described by the theory of self-perception. This

    theory says that people’s attitudes and beliefs may be

    shaped by observing their actions (in this case, by making

    a particular statement). The theory is counterintuitive,

    because it would seem more natural if actions were

    shaped by beliefs (Bem, 1972).

    Regaining and Maintaining Trust

    BeFi-in-Action:

    Competence

    1. Admit luck.

    2. Precede the greatestupside of a product with

    a potential downside.

    3. Display evidenceof competence.

    Empathy 

    1. Have frequent contactwith clients, especially

    in difficult times.

    2. Allay embarrassment.

    3. Seek feedback, especiallyin difficult times.

      Financial advisors find

    talking with clients during

    prosperous times to be easy,

    and even rewarding. But clients

    need contact with their financial

    advisors most urgently during

    difficult economic times, whenthey are facing uncertainty

    and worry.”

    Noah Goldstein,

    UCLA Anderson School of Management

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 6For financial professional use only.

    Kenneth Arrow, “Gifts and Exchanges,”

    Philosophy and Public Affairs, vol 1, pp 343 –

    362 (1972).

    R.C. Atkinson and R.M. Shiffrin, “Human

    Memory: A proposed system and its control

    processes,” in K.W. Spence and J.T. Spence,

    Psychology of Learning and Motivation, II,

    Academic Press, pp 89 –195 (1968).

    D. J. Bem, Self-Perception Theory .

    In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in Experimen-

    tal Social Psychology  (Vol. 6, pp 1 – 62).

    New York: Academic Press (1972).

    G. Bohner et al., “When Small Means

    Comfortable,” Journal of Consumer

    Psychology , vol 13, pp 454 – 463 (2003).

    Gallup Poll, “Congress Ranks Last inConfidence in Institutions,” July 2010.

    Tommy Gärling et al., “Psychology, Financial

    Decision Making, and Financial Crises,”

    Psychological Science in the Public Interest ,

    vol 10, no. 1, pp 1 – 47 (2009).

    Noah Goldstein, 2011,

    personal communication.

    Kathleen Gounaris and Maurice Prout,

    “Repairing Relationships and Restoring Trust:

    Behavioral Finance and the Economic Crisis,”

     Journal of Finance Service Professionals,

     July 2009, pp 75 – 84.

    Luigi Guiso et al., “Trusting the Stock Market,”

     Journal of Finance, vol 63, issue 6, pp 2557 –

    2600 (2008).

    F. Lee et al., “Mea Culpa: Predicting stock

    prices from organizational attributions,”

    Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin,

    vol 30, pp 1636 – 1649 (2004).

     Jeffery Pfeffer, The Human Equation:

    Building profits by putting people first ,

    Harvard Business Press, 1998.

    Steve Saccone, Relational Intelligence:How leaders can expand their influence

    through a new way of being smart ,

     Jossey-Bass (2009).

    K.D. Williams et al., “The Effects of Stealing

    Thunder in Criminal and Ci vil Trials,” Law and

    Human Behavior , vol 17, pp 597 – 609 (1993).

    References

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    Behavioral Finance in Action

    Psychological challenges in the financial advisor/client relationship, and strategies to solve them

    By Shlomo Benartzi, Ph.D.

    Professor, UCLA Anderson School of Management,

    Chief Behavioral Economist, Allianz Global Investors

    Center for Behavioral Finance

     

    Part 5 – Addressing the Disinclination to Save:The Behavioral Time Machine – In Development 

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 1For financial professional use only.

     As fina ncial advisors know, people find the task of saving

    adequately to be very challenging. Standard economic

    theory of saving assumes that people will be able to grasp

    how much they need to save, for retirement and for other

    contingencies; and then have the self-control to forgo

    current rewards in favor of later benefits.

    Even those people who can do the math (it isn’t easy) often

    find their best intentions derailed by the lure of immediate

    gratification leading to poor financial decisions that the

    mind, if given time to reflect, would reject.

    It may be difficult to focus on the benefits of financialrewards that will be available at retirement, because the

    present self may be psychologically disconnected from the

    distant future self. “With extreme psychological discon-

    nection,” says Hal Ersner-Hershfield, of the Kellogg School

    of Management, Northwestern University, “saving for re-

    tirement may feel to the present self like giving money to a

    stranger years in the future.” That is a strong disincentive

    to saving now.

    The Behavioral Time Machine currently under develop-

    ment offers the prospect of a simple tool that effectively

    reduces the gap between present and future selves. It will

    assist people’s imagination to understand the impact of

    present decisions on the future self, thereby enhancing

    people’s willingness to save now (Ersner-Hershfield et al.,

    in press).

    In Development:Addressing the Disinclination to Save– 

    The Behavioral Time Machine

    Many people were caught off guard in the recent financial crisis as they watched with alarm

    the value of their 401(k) accounts plummet, the price of their house decline and their job

    security threatened or even lost entirely. Most people imagined these three pillars of future

    financial stability to be separate: if one pillar started to crumble, the other two would

    compensate. The fact that under a confluence of certain financial circumstances their fates

    might be closely correlated was a timely reminder of the interconnectedness of things in

    our financial worlds. It also exposed a chronic problem: inadequate savings, not just for

    retirement but also for a source of stability in blustery financial climates in the future.

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 2For financial professional use only.

    Two Selves

    The notion of a disconnection between present and future

    selves has fascinated philosophers since the time of Plato.

    Many young people view their older selves heading into

    retirement as strangers. The British philosopher Derek

    Parfit famously described this lack of comprehension of

    future selves as “a failure of imagination, or some false

    belief” (Parfit, 1971). It is a failure to identify with oneselfin the future.

    This unconscious assumption of a different self in the

    future is demonstrated graphically by brain scans. Re-

    searchers at Northwestern University and elsewhere find

    that when people think about their future selves, the same

    brain region lights up as when they think about strangers.

    This neurological response to thinking about future selves

    is stronger in some people than in others. And those in

    whom the brain region is activated most when looking at

    future selves also show the steepest discounting of thefuture (Ersner-Hershfield et al., 2009). The degree of psy-

    chological disconnection is reflected in an unwillingness

    to save.

    To a failure of imagination we might add many young

    people’s seeming sense of immortality, or denial that one

    day they, too, will be old.

    In any case, the disconnection between present and future

    selves is well recognized, and it correlates with a reluc-

    tance to save. The question is, can the psychological gap

    between the two selves be closed, and would this affect

    willingness to save?

    Having people imagine their future selves in a substantive

    way is very challenging, for several reasons. For a start, it is

    not something people ordinarily do, and so it is a foreign

    exercise for them. And for anyone, imagining themselves at

    the age of retirement conjures up many possibilities, with

    different contingencies (losing one’s hair, winning the

    lottery, moving to another town or country, having a face-

    lift), which leads to multiple different outcomes. Under this

    spate of different potential future selves, people find it veryhard to bring a single future self into focus.

    The Behavioral Time Machine will provide a means of

    creating a single, salient future self to which the intuitive

    self reacts strongly. The reflective mind endorses that

    reaction, and makes rational decisions about saving.

    Enter Virtual Worlds

     When people are confronted with vivid visual images of

    themselves that have been digitally aged, they take notice.

    Hal Ersner-Hershfield and six colleagues performed such

    an experiment on young volunteers, using age-progression

    software in a vir tual reality environment. These algo-

    rithms use a framework of key facial features to build an

    image of what that person will look like in, say, thirty years’

    time. Some of the comments on seeing age-rendered

    future selves included: “Wow, I look just like Grandma,”

    “Oooh, I don’t know if I want to see this” and “Whoa, this

    is freaky” (Ersner-Hershfield, 2011). But more pertinently,

    the volunteers in the experiment who see their future

    selves more than double the amount of money they say

    they would allocate to retirement savings.

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 3For financial professional use only.

    This was not a simple priming effect. When the volunteers

    see similarly age-processed images of other  people, it does

    not  affect their allocation to savings. Only when they see

    images of their own future selves do they do the right thing

    with savings.

    These experimental results are the first demonstration of

    a new kind of intervention that shifts participants’ willing-

    ness to forgo present rewards in favor of future benefits.

    The age-progression exercise helps people recognize that

    the future self is indeed the same person as the present

    self. It repairs the disconnection

    between the two selves and leads to

    far-sighted decisions that take care

    of the future self by making adequatecontributions to a retirement plan.

    In other words, says Daniel Goldstein,1 

    a professor at London Business School,

    “The Behavioral Time Machine helps

    people to imagine their future selves

    by presenting them with a striking

     visual image of that self.”

    In a second study these same experi-

    menters added an emotional dimen-

    sion to the future selves. They firsttook three photographs of each

    participant, one with a very happy

    expression, another with a very sad

    expression and a third one with a

    neutral face. These three images were

    then digitally processed to form a

    series of about a dozen expressions in

    a future self-image, progressing from

     very happy to very sad. The experi-

    menters then linked this sliding

    emotional scale to a sliding financial

    scale, going from minimal allocation

    of savings for retirement on the left to

    optimal allocation on the right.

    1 Daniel Goldstein is a member of the Academic Advisory Board of the Allianz

    Global Investors Center for Behavioral Finance.

    Seeing our future selves boosts savings

    Seeing a happy future self further boosts savings

    (Ersner-Hershfield and Goldstein, in progress)

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 4For financial professional use only.

    Participants could then see the emotional reaction of their

    future selves to different rates of saving for retirement by

    the present self: pushing the slider toward the left (low

    allocation) end of the scale evokes an ever sadder future

    face; when participants move the slider toward the right

    (high allocation) end of the scale, the smile on their future

    selves’ faces gets ever broader.

    The results of the procedure are clear-cut: Participantswho see these emotional reactions in their future selves

    allocate significantly more to saving for retirement as

    compared with others who encounter only happy or sad

    images of their present selves.

    The virtual reality environment that these experimenters

    used in their laboratory studies is very high tech and

    sophisticated. Ersner-Hershfield and one of his colleagues,

    Daniel Goldstein, are working with Allianz Global Investors

    to scale down the technology to a level that would be

    practicable for financial advisors to use with their clients.

    This is the Behavioral Time Machine currently under

    development.2

    The Behavioral Time Machine will be complementary

    to other savings-enhancement strategies, which focus

    on present and future rewards rather than present and

    future selves. One of these is Save More Tomorrow, which

    effectively reduces the lure of the present (Thaler and

    Benartzi, 2004). Another strategy is to heighten people’s

    awareness of the benefits of future uses of money: trips

    to Europe, for instance, or spoiling the grandchildren.

    Research shows that this second strategy increases

    people’s patience, and enhances their willingness to

    save more now (Bartels and R ips, 2010). Financial advisorsmight use the Behavioral Time Machine on its own,

    or in combination with one of these strategies.

    2 The Behavioral Time Machine tool is in development with a launch date

    to be determined.

      The Behavioral Time Machine

    helps people to imagine their future

    selves, by presenting them with a

    striking visual image of that self.”

    Daniel Goldstein,London School of Business

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 5For financial professional use only.

    Daniel M. Bartels and Lance J. Rips,

    “Psychological Connectedness and Inter-

    temporal Choice,” Journal of Experimental

    Psychology—General , vol 139, no. 1,

    pp 49 – 69 (2010).

    Hal Ersner-Hershfield, 2011,

    personal communication.

    Hal Ersner-Hershfield et al., “Saving for the

    Future Self: Neural measures of future self-

    continuity predict temporal discounting,”

    Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience,

    vol 4, no. 1, pp 85 – 92 (2009).

    Hal Ersner-Hershfield et al., “Increasing

    Saving Behavior Through Age-Progressed

    Renderings of the Future Self,” Journal of

    Marketing Research, in press.

    Derek Parfit, “Personal Identity,” Philosophical

    Review , vol 80, no. 1, pp 3 – 27 (1971).

    Elke U. Weber et al., “Asymmetric Discount-

    ing in Intertemporal Choice,” Psychological

    Science, vol 18, no. 6 , pp 516 – 523 (2007).

    References

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 6For financial professional use only.

    About the Author

    The Behavioral Finance in Action series

    was written by Shlomo Benartzi, Ph.D.,

    Professor, UCLA Anderson School of Man-

    agement, and Chief Behavioral Economist

    of the Allianz Global Investors Center for

    Behavioral Finance.

    Professor Benartzi is a leading authority on behavioral financewith a special interest in personal f inance and participant behavior

    in defined contribution plans. He received his Ph.D. from Cornell

    University’s Johnson Graduate School of Management, and he is

    currently co-chair of the Behavioral Decision-Making Group at

    The Anderson School at UCLA.

    Professor Benartzi is also co-founder of the Behavioral Finance

    Forum (www.behavioralfinanceforum.com), a collective of 40

    prominent academics and 40 major financial institutions from

    around the globe. The Forum helps consumers make better

    financial decisions by fostering collaborative research effortsbetween academics and industry leaders.

    Professor Benartzi’s most significant research contribution is the

    development of Save More Tomorrow™ (SMarT), a behavioral

    prescription designed to help employees increase their savings

    rates gradually over time. Along with Richard Thaler of the

    University of Chicago, he was recognized by Money  as one of

    2004’s “Class Acts” for SMarT’s success – increasing savings rates

    in one plan from 3.5% to 13.6%. The SMarT program is now offered

    by approximately half of the large retirement plans in the U.S. anda growing number of plans in Australia and the U.K.

    Professor Benartzi has supplemented his academic research with

    practical experience, serving on the advisory boards of the Alaska

    State Pension, Fuller and Thaler Asset Management, Guggenheim

    Partners, Morningstar and the U.S. Department of Labor.

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    Behavioral Finance in Action 7For financial professional use only.

    Richard H. Thaler 

    The University of Chicago

    Booth School of BusinessRalph and Dorothy Keller

    Distinguished Service Professor of

    Behavioral Science and Economics

    http://www.chicagobooth.edu/faculty/bio.

    aspx?person_id=12825835520

    Nicholas Barberis

    Yale School of Management

    Stephen & Camille Schramm

    Professor of Finance

    http://www.som.yale.edu/faculty/ncb25/

    Kent Daniel

    Graduate School of Business,

    Columbia University

    Professor of Finance

    http://www.columbia.edu/~kd2371/

    Daniel G. Goldstein

    Yahoo Research, Research Scientist

    London Business School,Assistant Professor of Marketing

    http://www.dangoldstein.com/

    http://www.london.edu/facultyandresearch/

    faculty/search. do?uid=dgoldstein

    Noah Goldstein

    UCLA Anderson School of Management

    Assistant Professor of Human Resources

    and Organizational Behavior

    http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/x20524.xml

     John Payne

    Duke University, The Fuqua School

    of Business, Joseph J. Ruvane, Jr.

    Professor of Business Administration

    Director, Center for Decision Studies,

    Fuqua School of Business

    http://faculty.fuqua.duke.edu/~jpayne/bio/

    Acknowledgements

    We would also like to thank the financial advisors who provided feedback on the Behavioral Finance in Action series.

    And we welcome further comments from our readers. Email us at  [email protected].

     We would like to thank the following experts in behavioral finance for their input to the intellectual

    content of the Behavioral Finance in Action series. Each of them is a member or past member of the

     Academic Advisor y Board of the Allianz Global Investors Center for Behavioral Finance.

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    Allianz Global Investors is the asset management arm of Allianz SE.The Center for Behavioral Finance is sponsored by Allianz Global Investors Capital

    and Allianz Global Investors Distributors LLC.

    The principles and strategies suggested do not constitute legal advice and do not address the legal issues associated

    with implementing any recommendations, or associated with establishing or amending employee benefit plans.

    There are many legal and other considerations plan sponsors and plan fiduciaries should consider prior to adopting

    any of the recommendations herein, and legal counsel should be consulted to ensure compliance with the law. Any

    adoption of these general recommendations must be considered in light of the particular facts and circumstances

    of each retirement plan and its participants, and the authors of the program and Allianz Global Investors provide no

    The Allianz Global Investors Center for Behavioral Finance is committed

    to empowering clients to make better financial decisions by offering them

    actionable insights and practical tools.

    We developed Behavioral Finance in Action to present potential solutions

    to some of the key challenges financial advisors are facing. We consider this

    a work in progress. Our goal is to build on what we’ve begun, to improve and

    expand upon the contents. We can do this most effectively in partnership

    with you. We therefore invite you to give us your feedback.

    To do so, please email [email protected].

    befi.allianzgi.com