All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana ... · Steve Arquitt Millennium...

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Steve Arquitt Millennium Institute Washington D.C. Systems Thinking & Causal Loop Diagraming Refresher All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana Meadows

Transcript of All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana ... · Steve Arquitt Millennium...

Page 1: All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana ... · Steve Arquitt Millennium Institute Washington D.C. Systems Thinking & Causal Loop Diagraming Refresher All we know,

Steve ArquittMillennium InstituteWashington D.C.

Systems Thinking &Causal Loop DiagramingRefresher

All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana Meadows

Page 2: All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana ... · Steve Arquitt Millennium Institute Washington D.C. Systems Thinking & Causal Loop Diagraming Refresher All we know,

The Challenge Is

Cartoon Bank

Page 3: All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana ... · Steve Arquitt Millennium Institute Washington D.C. Systems Thinking & Causal Loop Diagraming Refresher All we know,

… To Avoid ...

Page 4: All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana ... · Steve Arquitt Millennium Institute Washington D.C. Systems Thinking & Causal Loop Diagraming Refresher All we know,

…Unexpected Results!

Page 5: All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana ... · Steve Arquitt Millennium Institute Washington D.C. Systems Thinking & Causal Loop Diagraming Refresher All we know,

Linear planning -> unintended consequences

• DDT• Introduced species • Antibiotic resistance• Chemical intense agriculture• Aral Sea disaster• Forest fire policy• And so on, Ad Infinitum!

Page 6: All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana ... · Steve Arquitt Millennium Institute Washington D.C. Systems Thinking & Causal Loop Diagraming Refresher All we know,

“Open loop” thinking

Page 7: All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana ... · Steve Arquitt Millennium Institute Washington D.C. Systems Thinking & Causal Loop Diagraming Refresher All we know,

Closing the loop

Goals

Decisions

State of theWorld

Sterman 2000

Page 8: All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana ... · Steve Arquitt Millennium Institute Washington D.C. Systems Thinking & Causal Loop Diagraming Refresher All we know,

Unintended consequences ofOur decisions

Sterman 2000

Page 9: All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana ... · Steve Arquitt Millennium Institute Washington D.C. Systems Thinking & Causal Loop Diagraming Refresher All we know,

We act only within a greater system

Sterman 2000

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Systems Thinking (ST) / System Dynamics (SD)

Problem IDDynamic hypothesisCausal loop diagrams

Mathematical modelSimulation for hypothesis testing &Policy analyses

ST

SD

• FEEDBACK• TIME LAGS

• NON LINEAR• CLOSED BOUNDARY

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The tools of Systems Thinking

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Example Causal Loop Diagram CLD

Sterman 2000

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Investment intourism

Seed investmentin tourism

+

Appeal ofdestination

Touristsarrivals

+

Money earnedfrom tourism

+

+

R

Crowding+

-

Environmentaldamage

+

-

B

B2

Tourisminfrastructure

+

+

CLD of tourism Development)

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Price

ConsumptionInventorycoverage

Inventory

Production+

+

+

-

-

-

Meadows (1970)

Meadow's General CommodityCycle CLD

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Anthropogenic Cemission rate

GHG+

Surface temp+

Ice cover-

Albedo+

-

Evaporationrate

+

Water vapour inatmosphere

+

+

R1

R2

Feedback loops in climate change

Page 16: All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana ... · Steve Arquitt Millennium Institute Washington D.C. Systems Thinking & Causal Loop Diagraming Refresher All we know,

Benefits of CLDs

• Primary tool of Systems Thinking• Holistic and non-linear hypothesis• Exploratory• Low cost• Forum for discussion• Communication• Foundation for simulation model

(System Dynamics model)

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Limitations of CLDs

• Conceptual only• Can easily become too cluttered• Doesn’t capture stock-flow

dynamics• Need experience to “see in loops”

Page 18: All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana ... · Steve Arquitt Millennium Institute Washington D.C. Systems Thinking & Causal Loop Diagraming Refresher All we know,

Some principles of good practice

• Keep it simple!• “No problem – no systems model”• Focus on feedback loops• Avoid too much detail• All arrows uni-directional• Mark polarities (+ or -)• Mark feedback loops as R or B• Use expert opinion when available

Page 19: All we know, and all we can ever know, is a model. – Dana ... · Steve Arquitt Millennium Institute Washington D.C. Systems Thinking & Causal Loop Diagraming Refresher All we know,

https://vensim.com/vensim-personal-learning-edition/#vensim-ple

Vensim PLE software (used for the causal loop

sketches used in the training)is available free of charge at:

Software for ST & SD


Scene Setter © alangnewman @ yahoo.com 1.We know we know 2.We know we don’t know 3.We don’t know we know 4.We don’t know we don’t know.

Scene Setter © alangnewman @ yahoo.com 1.We know we know 2.We know we don’t know 3.We don’t know we know 4.We don’t know we don’t know.

17 UNIT Diagraming - PC\|MACimages.pcmac.org/SiSFiles/Schools/AL/MontgomeryPublic/FloydMiddle... · Diagraming Direct and Indirect Objects The predicate of a sentence often contains

17 UNIT Diagraming - PC\|MACimages.pcmac.org/SiSFiles/Schools/AL/MontgomeryPublic/FloydMiddle... · Diagraming Direct and Indirect Objects The predicate of a sentence often contains

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Prime numbers: what we know, and what we know we thinkgerg/slides/StatenIsland-30Apr10.pdfPrime numbers: what we know, and what we know we thinkGreg Martin Introduction Single prime

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