ALL WALES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY · ALL WALES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY RESULTS Q3 20153 Q...
Transcript of ALL WALES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY · ALL WALES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY RESULTS Q3 20153 Q...
ALL WALES QUARTERLY ECONOMIC SURVEY
RESULTS Q3 2015
3QCompiled and published by
CONTENTS
Contacts 2
Executive Summary 3
Background Information 4
UK Markets 6
Export Markets 8
Labour Force and Recruitment 10
Business Confidence 14
Infographic 20
To discuss the Quarterly Economic Survey in more detail please contact:
Keith Palmer, Group CEOT: 01633 242700 E: [email protected]
Elgan Morgan, International and Representation Manager T: 01633 242721E: [email protected]
South Wales Chamber of CommerceHead Office:Orion Suite, Enterprise WayNewport, NP20 2AQ
www.southwaleschamber.co.uk
Mid Wales Chamber of CommerceThe Business Unit, Coleg PowysLlanidloes RoadNewtown, SY16 4HU
www.midwaleschamber.co.uk
West Cheshire & North Wales Chamber of CommerceRiverside Innovation Centre1 Castle Drive, Chester, CH1 1SL
www.wcnwchamber.org.uk
The Welsh economy keeps growing with more businesses telling us that their sales and orders are increasing than decreasing. However the rate of growth, particularly in exports, has slowed and confidence, although still positive, has dipped in the last quarter.
Over the last few months we’ve been hit by a slowdown in the Chinese economy and a fall in demand for steel internationally. This is on top of struggling economies in the Eurozone and a strong pound making British products expensive. This has led to a fall in our export indicator.
There are however still many opportunities abroad and despite this concern about international markets, businesses have been coming to us at the Chambers of Commerce looking for advice on how to export for the first time. We, working with colleagues in Business Wales and others, are here to support businesses on their export journey.
The Welsh Government, along with UKTI, are holding an Explore Export event at the SWALEC Stadium on
Thursday 12 November. If you’re interested in attending the event or if you would like more information about the steps you need to take to start exporting, contact our team on 01633 242720.
Despite some concerns in the export market, our indicator for the UK market shows that sales have been increasing and are likely to continue to grow in the near future. This doesn’t come as a surprise; businesses are telling us that they are getting more custom enabling them to give their staff salary increases, meaning that people have more money to spend.
Sitting alongside this is the continued growth being shown in our employment indicators, with more businesses telling us that they plan on increasing their workforce than decreasing. Businesses are still reporting a high level of difficulty in recruiting staff however, with Chamber members telling us that a lack of appropriate skills amongst applicants being the main cause.
The Chambers of Commerce have been raising concern over skill levels for a while now and news over the
summer that the Welsh Government is changing the school curriculum in Wales is to be welcomed. However this and other government programmes will take time to filter through, especially as in some cases it takes an individual several years to gain qualifications. But there are things that businesses can do in the short term. They should be investing in training their staff, giving work experience to local school children and working with their local colleges and universities in designing courses which fulfil the needs of the business.
Although the indicators are showing growth we shouldn’t take this for granted.
Our confidence indicators are showing a dip – businesses are still confident, just not as confident that their profits and turnover will increase as they have been previously. On the surface this doesn’t tally with what the UK market indicators are telling us but pressures around costs, wage rises and the difficulty in recruitment as well as the knock-on effect of a slowdown in international markets is starting to have an effect.
There is also a rise in the number of businesses telling us that they are planning on increasing their prices in the next quarter. Inflation has been low for a long-time and this could be an indication that this may soon change.
As we look towards the end of 2015, I would encourage businesses to look at markets that they haven’t been selling to previously, whether that be another part of the world or to another part of the UK, and continue to invest in their staff by supporting them to develop and gain more skills.
Keith Palmer Group CEO, South & Mid Wales Chambers of Commerce
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
NUMBER OF EMPLOYEESLOCATION OF BUSINESSES
10.8%
22.5%
15.4%15.0%
11.4%
9.8%
9.2%
5.9%
Bridgend / Vale of Glamorgan
Cardiff
Carms / Pembs
Newport / Torfaen / Mon / Bl Gwent
Powys / Ceredigion
RCT / Caerphilly / Merthyr
Swansea / Neath Port Talbot
North Wales
49.2%
13.4%
17.9%
13.4%
1.1%
2.2%
2.8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
0-9
10-19
20-49
50-199
200-249
250-499
500+
MAIN BUSINESS ACTIVITY
5.2%
5.2%
4.9%
8.5%
3.9%
3.9%
1.3%
10.5%
4.6%
23.2%
5.9%
22.9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Construction
Hotels / Catering
Transport / Distribution
Retailing / Wholesaling
Public / Voluntary SectorServices
Manufacture Electronic / IT
Production Raw Materials /Agri
Manufacture of other Goods
Marketing / Media
Professional Services
Consumer services
Other
UK MARKET - SALES
Wales
Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region
Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region
Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales
49.7%
37.3%
13.1%
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
Summary
Sales to UK based customers continue to grow at a steady pace, with the number of businesses saying that their sales are increasing remaining at over 40%, while the number saying that their sales are decreasing has fallen slightly.
This shows that trade within the UK is quite buoyant and that the recovery we’ve recently experienced is continuing.
13.1% 13.4% 12.7% 9.8% 13.3% 20.1% 17.1%
37.3% 36.4% 42.7% 43.4% 40.9%38.5% 41.4%
49.7% 50.2% 44.6% 46.8% 45.8% 41.4% 41.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
10.5% 11.2% 13.3% 13.7% 15.9% 22.1% 14.5%
35.5% 33.5%42.2% 39.5% 35.2%
38.4%41.0%
53.9% 55.3%44.5% 46.8% 48.9%
39.5% 44.6%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
16.4% 16.2% 13.3%4.3% 12.7% 20.0% 24.2%
40.1% 38.7% 38.6%47.3%
47.6% 34.5%37.9%
43.5% 45.0% 48.2% 48.4%39.7% 45.5% 37.9%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
15.7%4.5% 12.0% 12.9%
3.6%
26.7%16.7%
35.3% 54.5% 48.0% 45.2%46.4%
40.0% 53.3%
49.0% 40.9% 40.0% 41.9% 50.0%33.3% 30.0%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
14.3% 22.2%8.3% 5.9%
16.7%0.0%
16.7%
40.5% 29.6% 54.2%47.1%
37.5%53.8%
38.9%
45.2% 48.1%37.5%
47.1% 45.8% 46.2% 44.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
UK MARKET - ORDERS
49.7%
37.3%
13.1%
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
Wales
Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region
Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region
Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales
Summary
There’s positive news for trade within the UK in the future too, with a slight improvement in the number of businesses reporting an increase in orders and a slight decrease in the number reporting a reduction.
This gives a positive outlook for the Welsh economy over the next few months.
14.1% 13.4% 12.1% 10.0% 15.1% 18.9% 17.2%
38.5% 39.7% 46.0% 45.0%44.1%
45.3% 45.5%
47.4% 46.9% 41.8% 45.0% 40.9% 35.8% 37.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
12.2% 11.0% 11.2% 16.7% 16.7% 23.5%14.5%
37.3% 33.8%44.8% 40.4% 42.9%
40.7%46.7%
50.5% 55.2%44.0% 43.0% 40.5% 35.8% 38.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
15.9% 19.6% 14.5%3.3%
15.8% 15.4%25.4%
41.4%46.1%
43.4%48.9%
49.1% 44.2%40.3%
42.7% 34.3% 42.1% 47.8%35.1% 40.4% 34.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
22.9%
0.0%13.0% 10.3% 8.3%
23.1% 17.2%
31.3%
47.6%34.8% 48.3%
37.5%
53.8%51.7%
45.8% 52.4% 52.2%41.4%
54.2%
23.1% 31.0%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
10.0% 12.5% 8.3% 0.0%14.3%
0.0%11.1%
45.0% 41.7%70.8%
50.0%
42.9% 69.2% 44.4%
45.0% 45.8%
20.8%
50.0% 42.9%30.8%
44.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
EXPORT MARKET - SALES
49.7%
37.3%
13.1%
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
Wales
Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region
Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region
Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales
Summary
The number of businesses reporting that they exported more this quarter than last quarter has fallen.
However more businesses experienced increased export sales, than decreased.
14.8% 11.6%22.0% 22.6%
14.0% 15.9%27.1%
44.9%42.9%
37.0%26.9%
34.9%42.9%
37.4%
40.3% 45.5% 41.0%50.5% 51.2%
41.3% 35.5%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
16.2% 16.9%25.9% 28.9%
15.4% 17.6% 24.2%
44.8% 35.6%33.3% 22.2% 41.0% 41.2%
38.7%
39.0% 47.5% 40.7% 48.9% 43.6% 41.2% 37.1%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
18.2%6.5%
27.3%14.8%
25.0%12.5%
44.4%
49.1% 71.0% 36.4%
29.6%30.0%
37.5%
16.7%
32.7%22.6%
36.4%55.6%
45.0% 50.0%38.9%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
4.2% 0.0% 7.7%23.1%
7.1%
33.3% 25.0%37.5%
10.0%
53.8%38.5%
35.7%
66.7%
50.0%
58.3%
90.0%
38.5% 38.5%57.1%
0.0%
25.0%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
8.3% 8.3% 9.1% 12.5%0.0%
10.0% 18.2%
41.7% 33.3% 36.4% 25.0%
23.1%
50.0%45.5%
50.0% 58.3% 54.5% 62.5%76.9%
40.0% 36.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
EXPORT MARKET - ORDERS
49.7%
37.3%
13.1%
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
Wales
Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region
Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region
Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales
Summary
Looking to the future of exports, it is concerning that only marginally more businesses are reporting that their export orders are increasing than decreasing.
Businesses that have the ability to export should be looking at opening up new markets and selling to a number of countries to limit the effect of peaks and troughs in the economies of individual countries.
14.9% 16.0% 21.1% 24.1%14.3% 11.9%
29.6%
44.2% 40.6%41.1% 32.2%
35.1%50.8%
39.8%
40.9% 43.4% 37.8% 43.7% 50.6%37.3% 30.6%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
16.0% 17.2% 22.9%31.7%
19.4% 15.2%29.7%
45.0% 34.5%33.3%
24.4%33.3%
51.5%37.5%
39.0%48.3% 43.8% 43.9% 47.2%
33.3% 32.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
17.0% 21.4%30.0%
18.5% 11.8% 13.3%
41.2%
51.1%
64.3% 45.0%
37.0%41.2% 40.0%
29.4%
31.9%14.3%
25.0%44.4% 47.1% 46.7%
29.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
8.3% 0.0%9.1%
18.2% 16.7%0.0%
25.0%
33.3%
20.0%
54.5%45.5% 41.7%
100.0% 50.0%
58.3%
80.0%
36.4% 36.4% 41.7%
0.0%
25.0%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
10.0% 10.0% 9.1% 12.5%0.0% 0.0%
18.2%
30.0% 30.0%
54.5%37.5%
25.0%
55.6%
54.5%
60.0% 60.0%
36.4%50.0%
75.0%
44.4%27.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
LABOUR FORCE - LAST QUARTERChanges to the number of employees in the last three months.
49.7%
37.3%
13.1%
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
Wales
Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region
Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region
Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales
Summary
There was growth in employment over the last three months with over double the number of businesses reporting that their workforce increased compared to those that decreased.
However, with the number of businesses increasing their workforce falling and the number of businesses reducing their workforce getting larger, this implies that the rate of employment growth is slowing.
7.9% 11.2% 8.4% 7.9% 10.0% 11.6% 10.6%
64.6% 50.0% 56.5% 58.3% 61.1% 60.5% 61.2%
27.5%38.8% 35.1% 33.9% 28.9% 27.9% 28.2%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
12.7% 7.2% 3.5% 8.3% 12.7% 9.4% 15.3%
65.2%63.1%
61.2% 56.3% 55.6%49.1%
55.6%
22.1% 29.7% 35.3% 35.4% 31.7%41.5%
29.2%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
13.5% 8.7%0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 3.1%
61.5%52.2% 69.2% 63.3% 57.1%
92.9%71.9%
25.0%39.1% 30.8% 36.7% 35.7%
7.1%25.0%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
9.3% 3.6% 8.3% 5.6% 8.3% 0.0%11.1%
69.8%
50.0%58.3%
44.4%58.3%
33.3%
61.1%
20.9%
46.4%33.3%
50.0%33.3%
66.7%
27.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
10.0% 9.0% 6.0% 7.0% 10.2% 9.1% 11.0%
64.9%54.5% 59.4% 57.2% 58.5% 57.6% 61.0%
25.2%36.4% 34.6% 35.8% 31.2% 33.3% 28.1%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
LABOUR FORCE - NEXT QUARTERExpected change to the number of employees over the next three months.
67.8%
24.0%
8.1%
Increase Remain Constant Decrease
Wales
Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region
Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region
Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales
Summary
Looking forward, we expect employment to continue to grow, with double the number of businesses reporting that they plan to increase their workforce than decrease over the next quarter.
But the rate of growth will be lower than we’ve seen in previous quarters – with a fall in the number of businesses reporting that they plan on increasing their staff numbers, and the highest number that we have seen over the last two years saying that they are planning on reducing their workforce.
5.1% 4.9% 6.4% 8.9% 6.8% 6.6% 13.1%
59.4% 61.4% 61.7% 61.3% 60.7% 61.1%60.1%
35.5% 33.7% 32.0% 29.9% 32.5% 32.3% 26.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
5.7% 4.7% 3.8% 8.7% 8.8% 4.7% 11.2%
57.9% 57.6% 55.0%60.6%
51.6% 62.8% 57.4%
36.4% 37.6% 41.2%30.7%
39.6% 32.6% 31.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
5.6% 5.5% 10.6% 4.2% 7.8% 9.1%18.1%
61.2% 64.5%74.1%
67.7% 67.2%54.5%
62.5%
33.1% 30.0%15.3%
28.1% 25.0%36.4%
19.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
3.8% 4.8% 0.0%20.0%
0.0%14.3% 12.5%
55.8%66.7% 73.1%
56.7%
75.0%
85.7%
65.6%
40.4%28.6% 26.9% 23.3% 25.0%
0.0%
21.9%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
0.0% 3.6%12.5% 16.7%
4.3% 0.0%11.1%
66.7% 67.9% 41.7% 38.9% 60.9%50.0%
66.7%
33.3% 28.6%45.8% 44.4%
34.8%50.0%
22.2%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
RECRUITMENTCompanies that have recruited in the last three months.
53.0%
47.0%
Yes No
Wales
Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region
Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region
Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales
Summary
Over half of Welsh businesses have tried to recruit during the last quarter. While this is down slightly from the previous quarter, it is consistent with what has been reported over the last year or so.
This indicates that the jobs market in Wales continues to be buoyant.
59.4%45.6%
54.9% 48.7% 42.5% 44.0% 47.6%
40.6%54.4%
45.1% 51.3% 57.5% 56.0% 52.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Yes No
57.2%42.9%
62.7%48.8% 40.7%
52.3%41.2%
42.8%57.1%
37.3%51.2% 59.3%
47.7%58.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Yes No
65.9%53.6% 48.2% 52.1% 43.8%
34.5%51.4%
34.1%46.4% 51.8% 47.9% 56.3%
65.5%48.6%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Yes No
53.8%34.8%
61.5%46.7% 42.9%
57.1% 59.4%
46.2%65.2%
38.5%53.3% 57.1%
42.9% 40.6%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Yes No
54.5%39.3% 37.5% 33.3%
45.8%
15.4%
72.2%
45.5%60.7% 62.5% 66.7%
54.2%
84.6%
27.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Yes No
RECRUITMENT EXPERIENCESCompanies that experienced difficulties in recruiting.
53.0%
47.0%
Yes No
Wales
Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region
Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region
Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales
Summary
Businesses are continuing to find it hard to recruit the right staff with almost two thirds reporting that they have had difficulty recruiting in the last quarter. Although this figure is down from last quarter, it is still much higher than it should be.
With businesses reporting that many applicants are lacking the skills needed, it may take some time to reverse this high number.
47.0% 46.0% 39.7% 36.0% 37.4%27.5% 35.3%
53.0% 54.0% 60.3% 64.0% 62.6%72.5% 64.7%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Yes No
50.4% 47.9%38.8% 40.6% 43.1%
34.1% 39.4%
49.6% 52.1%61.2% 59.4% 56.9%
65.9% 60.6%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Yes No
44.3% 41.2% 42.5% 40.0% 34.3%17.1%
26.5%
55.7% 58.8% 57.5% 60.0% 65.7%82.9%
73.5%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Yes No
33.3%
57.1%44.4%
6.7%
37.5%
60.0%41.7%
66.7%
42.9%55.6%
93.3%
62.5%
40.0%58.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Yes No
50.0%41.2% 33.3% 33.3%
23.1% 20.0%0.0%
50.0%58.8% 66.7% 66.7%
76.9% 80.0%100.0%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Yes No
CASHFLOWChanges to the business’ cashflow over the last three months.
28.4%
53.9%
17.7%
Improved Remained the Same Worsened
Wales
Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region
Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region
Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales
Summary
The number of businesses reporting that their cashflow improved over the last quarter remained the same as the previous quarter, but there was an increase in the amount of businesses reporting that their cashflow worsened.
17.7% 16.6% 15.6% 12.5%22.3% 18.9% 22.2%
53.9% 49.1% 51.2% 55.6%49.2%
46.5% 43.1%
28.4% 34.4% 33.2% 31.9% 28.5% 34.6% 34.7%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Improved Remained the same Worsened
15.3% 19.1% 14.3% 11.8%20.9% 22.9% 18.5%
53.5% 45.1% 50.0% 55.5%50.0% 44.6%
42.9%
31.2% 35.8% 35.7% 32.8% 29.1% 32.5% 38.7%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Improved Remained the same Worsened
19.9% 13.8% 17.9% 12.9%28.8%
15.7%29.2%
56.3%53.2% 44.9% 58.1%
49.2%
49.0%43.1%
23.9%33.0% 37.2% 29.0% 22.0%
35.3% 27.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Improved Remained the same Worsened
22.0% 13.6% 8.3% 14.3% 15.4% 15.4%25.8%
52.0%59.1% 75.0%
46.4% 38.5%53.8%
45.2%
26.0% 27.3%16.7%
39.3% 46.2%30.8% 29.0%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Improved Remained the same Worsened
40.0%
14.8% 22.7%11.8% 18.2%
8.3%23.5%
20.0%
48.1%
54.5%58.8%
59.1%
41.7%
41.2%
40.0% 37.0%22.7% 29.4% 22.7%
50.0%35.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Improved Remained the same Worsened
INVESTMENT - EQUIPMENTChanges to the amount of investment by companies in plant, machinery and equipment.
49.7%
37.3%
13.1%
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
Wales
Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region
Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region
Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales
Summary
One third of businesses are reporting that they intend to increase their investment in equipment, machinery and plant over the next quarter, indicating confidence.
However this figure is down from last quarter, and with an increase in the number of businesses reporting that they are planning on reducing their investment, we need to monitor this particular indicator closely.
2.0% 3.3% 4.5% 4.0% 4.7% 5.3% 10.3%
58.5% 53.3% 51.8% 56.6% 56.3% 53.3%57.3%
39.6% 43.5% 43.7% 39.4% 38.9% 41.3%32.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
1.4% 2.6% 3.2% 6.9% 8.4% 6.3% 11.0%
60.2% 55.8% 54.0% 53.4% 55.4% 58.2%58.9%
38.4% 41.6% 42.7% 39.7% 36.1% 35.4% 30.1%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
2.4% 4.8% 5.2% 1.1% 1.7% 6.3% 6.9%
55.7% 52.4% 46.8% 60.4% 59.3% 43.8%55.6%
41.9% 42.9% 48.1%38.5% 39.0%
50.0%37.5%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%10.3%
59.6% 66.7%50.0%
67.9%61.5%
81.8% 62.1%
36.2% 33.3%50.0%
28.6%38.5%
18.2%27.6%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
0.0% 3.8%13.6%
0.0% 4.5% 0.0%17.6%
40.0% 30.8%
59.1%
37.5%45.5%
33.3%
41.2%
60.0% 65.4%
27.3%
62.5%50.0%
66.7%
41.2%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
INVESTMENT - TRAININGChanges to the amount of investment by companies in training their workforce.
49.7%
37.3%
13.1%
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
Wales
Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region
Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region
Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales
Summary
The fall in the number of businesses reporting that they plan on increasing the amount they spend on training their staff is worrying. Businesses have been reporting consistently over the last year that they are having difficulty recruiting the right staff, naming skills as a main reason for this difficulty.
Investment in training is needed to plug the skills gap and ensure that the workforce is able to do the job.
1.8% 3.5% 2.0% 4.6% 4.8% 3.1% 8.5%
54.2% 44.7% 54.1% 57.1% 50.5% 53.5%63.0%
44.0% 51.8% 43.9% 38.3% 44.7% 43.4%28.5%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
1.4% 3.1% 1.6% 7.3% 6.0% 4.8% 8.0%
53.1%40.3% 47.6%
53.7%47.0% 57.8%
62.6%
45.6%56.6% 50.8%
39.0% 47.0%37.3% 29.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
1.8% 2.9% 2.7% 1.1% 1.8% 0.0%8.5%
54.2% 53.3% 58.1% 60.2% 52.6% 49.0%
66.2%
44.0% 43.8% 39.2% 38.7% 45.6% 51.0%
25.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
4.3% 4.5% 0.0% 3.6% 3.8% 7.7% 13.3%
58.7% 59.1% 70.8% 67.9%53.8%
61.5% 53.3%
37.0% 36.4% 29.2% 28.6%42.3%
30.8% 33.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
0.0% 8.0% 4.5% 5.9% 9.1%0.0% 5.9%
80.0%
24.0%
59.1%47.1%
54.5%
33.3%
70.6%
20.0%
68.0%
36.4%47.1%
36.4%
66.7%
23.5%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
TURNOVER EXPECTATIONS - NEXT 12 MONTHS
67.8%
24.0%
8.1%
Increase Remain Constant Decrease
Wales
Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region
Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region
Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales
Summary
The majority of Welsh businesses are confident that their turnover will increase over the next year.
However we are seeing a fall in this confidence, with 15% fewer reporting that they expect their turnover to increase than did a year ago.
This is another indicator to monitor closely in the next quarter’s survey.
8.1% 7.7% 5.3% 5.5% 10.1% 7.0% 13.5%
24.0% 23.2% 24.4% 24.6%25.0% 28.0%
30.2%
67.8% 69.1% 70.3% 69.9% 64.9% 65.0%56.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
6.5% 7.6% 4.8% 6.7% 9.8% 9.6% 11.3%
21.8% 15.9% 17.7% 20.2%23.2% 28.9% 32.1%
71.8% 76.4% 77.4% 73.1% 67.1% 61.4% 56.5%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
8.2% 9.3% 7.7% 4.3% 11.9% 6.0%20.5%
30.6% 32.7% 32.1% 32.6%28.8%
22.0%
28.8%
61.2% 57.9% 60.3% 63.0% 59.3%72.0%
50.7%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
17.0%0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0%
12.9%
14.9%
27.3% 27.3% 25.0% 24.0%
66.7%32.3%
68.1% 72.7% 72.7% 71.4% 76.0%
33.3%
54.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
20.0%8.0% 4.5% 5.9%
18.2%0.0% 6.3%
20.0%24.0% 31.8%
11.8%
22.7%
8.3%12.5%
60.0% 68.0% 63.6%82.4%
59.1%
91.7%81.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
PROFITABILITY EXPECTATIONS - NEXT 12 MONTHS
67.8%
24.0%
8.1%
Increase Remain Constant Decrease
Wales
Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region
Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region
Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales
Summary
The number of Welsh businesses expecting their profits to increase over the next year has fallen below 50% for the first time in several surveys. This is matched with almost a quarter of businesses saying that they expect their profits to fall over the next year.
This is worrying as the ability to make a profit is a driving force of many other decisions in business.
10.3% 9.4% 8.2% 9.4% 11.7% 13.5%23.7%
28.7% 31.4% 32.7% 28.2% 31.4% 33.3%30.4%
61.0% 59.2% 59.2% 62.4% 56.9% 53.2% 45.9%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
8.5% 7.1% 8.1% 5.9% 9.8% 13.3% 20.6%
25.5% 27.6% 24.2% 24.4%26.8%
37.3%31.5%
66.0% 65.4% 67.7% 69.7% 63.4%49.4% 47.9%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
10.6% 13.1% 7.8% 9.9% 11.9% 12.2%32.4%
35.3% 36.4% 42.9% 34.1% 32.2% 28.6%
23.9%
54.1% 50.5% 49.4% 56.0% 55.9% 59.2%43.7%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
19.1%4.8% 0.0%
14.3% 8.0%16.7% 23.3%
25.5%33.3%
31.8%
28.6%32.0%
41.7%43.3%
55.3% 61.9% 68.2%57.1% 60.0%
41.7% 33.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
20.0% 12.0% 18.2% 23.5% 22.7% 16.7% 17.6%
20.0% 32.0%
45.5%23.5%
45.5%
16.7%23.5%
60.0% 56.0%36.4%
52.9%
31.8%
66.7% 58.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
PRICE/COST EXPECTATIONS - NEXT 12 MONTHS
67.8%
24.0%
8.1%
Increase Remain Constant Decrease
Wales
Regional Breakdown - Cardiff Capital City Region
Regional Breakdown -Swansea Bay City Region
Regional Breakdown - Mid WalesRegional Breakdown - North Wales
Summary
There has been an increase in the number of businesses expecting to raise their prices over the next quarter.
Inflation has been low for a long time but with more businesses indicating that they plan on raising prices we could be seeing the start of an increase in inflation.
4.1% 4.0% 2.1% 3.9% 3.1% 3.8% 6.7%
72.7% 75.6% 80.3% 70.5% 75.8% 73.4% 63.7%
23.1% 20.4% 17.6% 25.6% 21.1% 22.8% 29.6%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
4.2% 4.1% 0.0% 4.2% 3.5% 4.9% 4.8%
74.2% 72.8% 81.0% 65.8%78.8% 76.8%
64.3%
21.6% 23.1% 19.0%30.0%
17.6% 18.3%31.0%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
5.1% 3.7% 3.8% 3.2% 3.3% 3.8% 9.9%
70.9% 77.1% 79.7% 75.3% 76.7%63.5% 59.2%
24.0% 19.3% 16.5% 21.5% 20.0%32.7% 31.0%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
2.0% 4.5% 12.5% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0%13.3%
72.5%77.3% 62.5%
59.3% 69.2%
92.3% 60.0%
25.5% 18.2% 25.0% 33.3% 30.8%
7.7%26.7%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
2.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%
69.8%85.7% 95.7% 94.4%
69.6% 72.7%86.7%
27.9%10.7% 4.3% 5.6%
26.1% 27.3%13.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
Increased Remained Constant Decreased
Eq
uipm
ent 32.4
%
(-8.9
pts)
Training
28.5%
(-14
.9 p
ts)
UK
: sales 4
1.4%
(no chang
e)o
rders 37.3%
(+1.5p
ts)
Exp
orts:
sales 35.5% (-5.8
pts)
ord
ers 30.6
% (-6
.7pts)
The num
ber o
f Welsh
businesses exp
ecting their
pro
fits to
increase in the next year has fallen b
elow
50%
.
45.9
% (-7.3p
ts)
Acco
rding
to the latest
Quarterly E
cono
mic Survey fro
m the
Cham
bers o
f Co
mm
erce in Wales:
This Q
uarterly Eco
nom
ic Survey relates to
the perio
d b
etween July and
Sep
temb
er 2015.
The num
ber o
f Welsh b
usinesses rep
orting
imp
roving U
K sales and
o
rders rem
ains constant.
The num
ber o
f Welsh b
usinesses rep
orting
imp
roving overseas
sales and o
rders co
ntinues to fall.
Plans fo
r increased investm
ent