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    An analysis of key trends in the medical schemesindustry (20002013)

    DIAGNOSIS2014/2015

    Alexander Forbes Health Technical and Actuarial Consulting Solutions

    HEALTH

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    Introduction

    Our Technical and Actuarial

    Consulting Solutions (TACS) team is

    proud to present this publication in

    collaboration with our Research &

    Product Development department and

    we are confident that the content willgive you a comprehensive overview

    of the financial and demographic

    performance of medical schemes since

    2000 as well as some of the challenges

    currently faced by the industry.

    This analysis covers key statistics

    and trends over the 14-year period

    from 2000 to 2013, based largely

    on the consolidated financial results

    for all registered medical schemes,

    with specific focus on the ten largestopen and the ten largest restricted

    membership schemes.

    We believe this publication will serve

    as a useful reference to trustees,

    employers and industry commentators

    by giving insight into the demographic

    and financial trends of the industry.

    If you would like to discuss any of

    the issues addressed in more detail,

    please speak to your Alexander ForbesHealth consultant or contact one of the

    technical specialists listed at the end

    of this publication.

    Welcome to the latest issue of Alexander Forbes Healths Diagnosis,an analysis of key trends in the medical schemes industry.

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    Contents

    1. Key industry developments 4

    2. Performance indicators 6

    2.1 Size and scale 6

    2.2 Market share 11

    2.3 Membership profile 12

    2.4 Contributions 162.5 Inflationary trends 17

    2.6 Healthcare (claims) expenditure 19

    2.7 Non-healthcare expenditure 21

    2.8 Financial performance 23

    2.9 Investments 26

    2.10 Solvency levels 28

    3. Medical Schemes Sustainability Index 30

    4. Conclusion 34

    5. Alexander Forbes Health 35

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    1. Key industry developments

    1998 The Medical Schemes Act

    (131 of 1998) is signed into law.

    It introduces prescribed minimum

    benefits (PMBs), community-ratedcontributions and open enrolment.

    2000 The Medical Schemes Act

    comes into effect and the

    Council for Medical Schemes

    (CMS) is established.

    2003 The National Health Act(61 of

    2003) gives a framework for a

    structured and uniform health

    system for the entire country. Personal medical savings

    accounts are limited to 25%

    of gross contributions.

    2004 A Competition Commissionruling

    bans the system of collective tariff

    setting between schemes and

    healthcare providers. Single exit price(SEP) is

    implemented for pharmaceutical

    manufacturers.National Health Reference PriceList (NHRPL) is first published by

    the Department of Health. Medical schemes must maintain a

    minimum solvency level of 25%.

    2005 The Government Employees

    Medical Scheme(GEMS)

    is registered. The Childrens Act(38 of

    2005) stipulates the age of

    consent of minors to medical

    and surgical treatment.

    2006 The CMS takes over publication

    of the National Health Reference

    Price List(NHRPL), a guideline

    for healthcare service tariffs.

    The main developments in the medical schemes industry since the

    promulgation of the Medical Schemes Act (131 of 1998) are:

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    2013 The Financial Services Laws

    General Amendment Act

    (45 of 2013) amends the

    Medical Schemes Act by wideningthe definition of the business of a

    medical scheme. Schemes must hold members

    medical savings account (MSA)

    contributionsseparate from

    scheme reserves and allow

    interest to accrue to positive

    MSA balances. The National Health Amendment

    Act(12 of 2013) provides for

    the establishment of the Office

    of Health Standards Compliance

    (OHSC), a key building block

    of NHI.

    The Competition CommissionInquiry into Private Healthcare

    is announced. The Protection of Personal

    Information Act(4 of 2013)

    (POPI) is signed into law.

    2014 The 12-member board of the newly established Office of Health

    Standards Compliance(OHSC) is named. Second Draft Demarcation Regulationsinclude an allowance for gap

    cover products and hospital cash plans under strict conditions. The Competition Commission Inquiry into Private Healthcarestarts. A

    final report is due by the end of November 2015.

    The Draft Road Accident Fund Benefit Billprovides for a no-fault benefitscheme and a new Administrator to replace the Road Accident Fund. The Financial Services Board (FSB) introduces Treating Customers

    Fairly(TCF), a market conduct framework of regulatory reform. The National Department of Health publishes a National Health

    Insurance (NHI) booklet.

    2011 The Consumer Protection Act

    (68 of 2008) comes into effect tosupport and strengthen a

    culture of consumer rights

    and responsibilities. The Green Paper on the National

    Health Insurance Policyis

    published for public comment.

    2008 The Medical Schemes Amendment Billis proposed but not

    signed into law. It provides for the Risk Equalisation Fund

    (REF), low-income benefit options, improved governance,and an amendment of the definition of the business of a

    medical scheme. The Health Professions Council of South Africa (HPCSA)

    scraps ethical tariffs, used by providers as a ceiling for

    patient accounts.

    2009 The Competition Amendment Act(1 of 2009) is signed into law. It provides a legal framework

    and gives formal powers to the Competition Commission to conduct market enquiries. The Protection of Personal Information (POPI) Billis published to provide for the protection

    of personal information processed by public and private bodies, including medical schemes

    and other relevant industry stakeholders.

    2012 The Taxation Laws Amendment Act(22 of 2012) provides for a new medical tax

    creditsystem to replace medical deductions. The definition of a dependantis

    widened in the Income Tax Act to be the same as the definition of a dependant in

    the Medical Schemes Act. Draft Demarcation Regulationspropose the removal of most gap cover products and

    hospital cash plans.

    2010 Dispensing fee regulationis

    introduced for pharmacists and

    licensed health professionals. The High Court rules the NHRPL

    invalidand sets it aside. The Board of Healthcare Funders

    (BHF) court application to

    seek clarity on the meaning of

    Regulation 8(1)is dismissed by

    the High Court. The CMS publishes the PMB

    Code of Conductto ensure

    compliance with Regulation 8(1)

    pay in full.

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    2. Performance indicators

    This section analyses some of the key statistics influencing theperformance of medical schemes.

    When evaluating the performance of medical schemes, some of the key factors to consider are:

    2.1 Size and scale

    Medical schemes in numbers

    Size and scale

    Membership growth and risk profile

    Financial results and solvency levels.

    Beneficiaries in open medical schemes Beneficiaries in restricted medical schemes

    Number of open medical schemesNumber of restricted medical schemes

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    0

    1 000 000

    2 000 000

    3 000 000

    4 000 000

    5 000 000

    6 000 000

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Numberofmedicalschemes

    Numbe

    rofbeneficiaries

    Year

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    In 2013, the number of medical

    schemes continued to decline. At

    the end of 2013, there were 87

    registered medical schemes in South

    Africa, a decrease from 97 in 2011

    and 92 in 2012. During 2013,

    four restricted membership medical

    schemes amalgamated into the

    open medical scheme market. These

    included IBM SA Medical Scheme and

    Nampak SA Medical Scheme, which

    both amalgamated with Discovery

    Health Medical Scheme, and Sappi

    Medical Aid and Minemed Medical

    Scheme, which both amalgamated

    with Bestmed Medical Scheme.

    There was one open medical schemeamalgamation, with ProSano Medical

    Scheme amalgamating with Bonitas

    Medical Fund. While there were

    three liquidations during 2012, none

    occurred in 2013.

    The downward trend in the number

    of medical schemes from 144 at

    the end of 2000 to 87 at the end of

    2013, representing a 40% decrease

    in the number of registered medical

    schemes in 13 years, is the result

    of continued amalgamations and

    liquidations (voluntary and involuntary)

    across the industry. The number of

    open medical schemes has decreased

    by 23 (49%) compared to a decrease

    of 34 (35%) restricted medical

    schemes over this period. Our view

    is that this consolidation is driven

    partly by the difficulty in maintaining

    the sustainability of small schemes

    in the current environment and for

    restricted schemes in particular, by

    the significant amount of management

    time needed to manage an employer-

    based restricted scheme.

    This consolidation in the industry

    has continued into 2014 with the

    following schemes amalgamatingduring the year:

    Discovery Health Medical Scheme

    and Altron Medical Aid Scheme

    (1 January 2014) Topmed Medical Scheme and Pharos

    Medical Plan (1 January 2014) Discovery Health Medical Scheme

    and Afrox Medical Aid Society

    (1 May 2014) Discovery Health Medical Scheme

    and PG Bison Medical Aid Society

    (1 May 2014).

    Despite the continued decrease in

    the number of medical schemes,

    the industry has still grown by

    1.3 million (49%) principal members

    and 2 million (30%) beneficiaries

    since 2000. The 87 medical schemes

    operating in South Africa at the end

    of 2013 served a total of 3.9 million

    principal members and 8.8 million

    beneficiaries, a growth of 1.6% and

    1.1% respectively from 2012.

    A total of 58.2% of principal members

    participated in open medical schemes

    at the end of 2013 with the balance

    of 41.8% participating in restricted

    medical schemes. This compares to57.6% and 42.4% respectively at the

    end of 2012. This is the first time

    that the market share of open medical

    schemes has increased since 2005, as

    membership growth on the Government

    Employees Medical Scheme (GEMS)

    has served to decrease the market

    share of open schemes since its

    registration in 2006.

    The graph on the following page shows

    the percentage annual growth in

    medical scheme membership over

    the last 13 years.

    Despite the continued decrease in the

    number of medical schemes, the number

    of covered lives has still grown.

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    Annual percentage growth in membership

    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Percentageannualgrowthrate

    Open schemes Restricted schemesAll schemes

    Year

    There is a stark contrast in the trends

    in the annual growth rate of open and

    restricted medical schemes, with the

    most notable difference observed in

    2006 with the registration of GEMS.

    Since 2006, the growth rate in open

    medical schemes has fluctuated

    between 0% and 3% per year. While

    the rate of growth in the restricted

    scheme environment has exceeded 5%

    for most years since 2006, this growthhas slowed considerably to 0.3% from

    2012 to 2013.

    The minimum membership requirement

    set by the Council for Medical Schemes

    (CMS) for registering a new medical

    scheme is 6 000 principal members.

    At the end of 2013, there were

    two open medical schemes and 29

    restricted schemes with fewer than

    6 000 principal members. The open

    schemes with membership below this

    threshold were Medimed Medical

    Scheme (5 446 principal members)

    and Makoti Medical Scheme

    (2 633 principal members).

    A small membership base generally

    results in a more variable claims

    experience, which increases the

    risk of contributions not being set

    at an appropriate level to cover all

    claims and expenses. This variability

    is compounded further by thenegative impact of high cost claims,

    especially in the current environment

    where schemes are required to pay

    in full for the cost of prescribed

    minimum benefits, regardless of

    the rates charged. Some of this risk

    can be mitigated where schemes

    are administered by one of the

    larger administrators and can rely

    on their administrator to negotiate

    reimbursement rates with healthcare

    service providers on their behalf.

    Despite the risks

    involved in small

    medical schemes and

    the fact that many are

    amalgamating, there

    are still a fair number of

    small schemes that are

    performing well. Of the31 schemes with fewer

    than 6 000 members,

    13 achieved a surplus

    before investment

    income in both 2012

    and 2013, which

    indicates a combination

    of a good profile as a

    well as sound financial

    and risk management.

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    The graph below ranks the top 10

    open schemes and top 10 restricted

    schemes in terms of the number of

    principal members as at 31 December

    2013. This represents 85.5% of all

    principal members participating in

    registered medical schemes, or 92.4%

    and 75.8% of principal members

    participating in open and restricted

    medical schemes respectively.

    While we have continued to include

    the largest ten open medical schemes,

    this year we have also included the

    largest ten restricted medical schemes,

    rather than just the largest five, in

    order to provide relevant analysis to a

    broader audience. In addition, many

    of these schemes could be deemed to

    be competitors of some open schemes.

    As an example, members eligible to

    join Profmed could also be eligible to

    join any of the open schemes. Other

    schemes such as LA Health Medical

    Scheme (LA-Health) and SAMWUMED

    would be relevant to employees of local

    government who would also be able

    to join specified open schemes. As a

    result, some employers or individual

    members would compare these open

    and restricted schemes together when

    making decisions relating to medical

    scheme cover.

    The ranking by size of the top 10 open

    medical schemes has remained largely

    unchanged since 2012. As a result of

    two amalgamations, Bestmed Medical

    Scheme moved up two places to

    number 5, moving Medshield Medical

    Scheme (Medshield) and Fedhealth

    Medical Scheme (Fedhealth) down

    one position each to positions 6 and 7

    respectively. Liberty Medical Scheme

    (Liberty) and Sizwe Medical Fund(Sizwe) switched between positions

    8 and 9 and KeyHealth re-entered

    the top 10 in 2013, with 36 019

    members, replacing Resolution Health

    Medical Scheme (Resolution) from

    2012. Resolution is now the 11th

    largest open medical scheme with

    34 559 members at the end of 2013,

    a decrease from 40 724 at the end

    of 2012.

    There has been some movement from

    2012 to 2013 in the positions ofrestricted schemes, with Platinum

    Health moving down from number 5

    to number 6, as a combined result of

    a decrease in members on the scheme

    and an increase in members on LA-

    Health. The new schemes included

    in this years analysis are LA-Health

    Medical Scheme, SAMWUMED,

    Sasolmed, Motohealth Care and

    Profmed. Nedgroup Medical Aid

    Scheme is the 11thlargest restricted

    medical scheme with 27 328 members

    at the end of 2013, compared toProfmeds 27 442 members.

    Membership by medical scheme

    -30%

    -20%

    -10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    0

    200 000

    400 000

    600 000

    800 000

    1000 000

    1200 000

    1400 000

    1600 000

    Discovery

    Bonitas

    Mome

    ntum

    Medih

    elp

    Bestm

    ed

    Medshie

    ld

    Fedhealth

    Libert

    y

    Sizwe

    KeyH

    ealth

    GEMS

    Polm

    ed

    Bankme

    d

    Tran

    smed

    LA-Health

    Platin

    umHealth

    SAMW

    UMED

    Sasolm

    ed

    Motoh

    ealth

    Care

    Profm

    ed

    Medical scheme

    2013 principals 2013 dependants Growth in principal members Growth in dependants

    Percentagegrowthfrom2

    012to2013

    Numberoflivescovered

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    Discoverys total market share based on

    the number of principal members has

    increased from 16% in 2001 to 31%

    in 2013, compared to a decrease in

    market share for the rest of the open

    schemes from 54% in 2001 to 27%

    in 2013. This decline in open medical

    scheme membership (excluding

    Discovery) is due to many members

    and employers choosing to move fromtheir current medical scheme to join

    Discovery and the transfer of eligible

    public sector employees to GEMS since

    its inception.

    In 2013 GEMSs total market share

    was 18%, compared to 2% in 2006.

    The rapid growth in membership

    includes eligible government

    employees transferring from other

    open schemes, the amalgamation

    with Medcor in 2010 and the transferof a group of approximately 16 000

    pensioners from Medihelp to GEMS

    early in 2012. The increase in GEMSs

    market share has also been assisted

    by continued new member growth

    stimulated by an attractive employer

    subsidy. The total market share of

    the balance of the restricted schemes

    has decreased from 30% to 24%,

    driven mostly by amalgamations of

    restricted schemes into the open

    medical scheme environment.

    The industrys net growth of 62 836

    principal members during the 2013

    financial year was largely driven by

    growth on Discovery Health Medical

    Scheme (Discovery) with a net growth

    of 51 897 principal members and the

    GEMS with a net growth of 21 812

    principal members. This growth was

    partially offset by individuals leaving

    the medical schemes industry, possibly

    due to affordability constraints among

    other reasons.

    2.2 Market share

    Market share by principal members

    16%

    54%

    30%

    27%

    43%

    28%

    2%29%

    30%

    25%

    16%

    31%

    27%

    24%

    18%

    2006

    2011

    2001

    2013

    Discovery

    2014:Altron, Afrox, PG Bison

    2013:Nampak, IBM

    2012:Edcon

    2010:Afrisam, Umed2004:AngloGold

    All open medical

    schemes(excluding Discovery)

    2001 to 2013:

    Net reduction of 25 schemes

    GEMS

    2010: Medcor

    2012:Pre-92 Medihelp pensioners

    2001 to 2013:

    Net reduction of 34 schemes

    All restricted medical

    schemes(excluding GEMS)

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    The average age of beneficiaries in

    the medical schemes industry has

    remained fairly constant since 2005

    with a marginal decrease in the last

    year, from 32 years in 2012 to 31.9

    years in 2013. The trends for open

    schemes and restricted schemes have

    moved in opposite directions, however,

    with the average age in open schemesincreasing by 2 years since 2005 (from

    31.5 years to 33.5 years) and that in

    restricted schemes decreasing by 2.3

    years since 2005 (from 32.3 years to

    30 years).

    This divergence in the trends for

    open and restricted schemes started

    after 2006. This was the first year

    of operation for GEMS and this

    was combined with a change in theemployer subsidy for government

    employees participating on GEMS.

    The attractive subsidy appears to have

    encouraged a consistent movement

    of younger members from the open

    scheme environment onto GEMS.

    On the other hand, the subsidy

    for pensioners who were previous

    employees in the public service did

    not change with the establishment of

    GEMS and, as such, there has beenno incentive for these members to

    consider transferring to the scheme.

    2.3 Membership profile

    Trend in average age of beneficiaries

    Note:Average age and pensioner ratios were recorded in the CMS Annual Report from 2005 only.

    25

    26

    27

    28

    29

    30

    31

    32

    33

    34

    35

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Open schemes Restricted schemesAll schemes

    Year

    Averageag

    eofbeneficiaries

    One of the most important contributing

    factors to a schemes performance is the

    risk profile of its members, with some of

    the key statistics being:

    Average age of beneficiaries

    Pensioner ratio (defined as the percentage of

    beneficiaries over the age of 65 years)

    The following section considers these factors in detail.

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    With the consolidation experienced

    in the industry over the last few

    years, many restricted schemes have

    amalgamated into the open medical

    scheme market. Amalgamations

    generally occur where schemes are no

    longer sustainable due to membership

    size, membership profile or poor claims

    experience. As a result, restricted

    schemes that have amalgamated into

    the open medical scheme environment

    as a result of poor claims or a poor

    profile would have had a higher average

    age. The exit of older than average

    members from the restricted scheme

    environment has therefore resulted in

    a decrease in the average age.

    The same argument explains the

    increase in average age in the open

    scheme environment.

    As a scheme ages, we expect an

    approximate increase in average

    claims of 2% to 3% per year. This

    is shown in the claims curve below,

    together with a representation of

    individuals general needs. Note that

    specific needs will depend on an

    individuals own circumstances.

    Young and single

    Hospital cover Limited or no

    day-to-day cover

    Family with children

    Hospital cover Day-to-day cover

    Maternity benefits Limited chronic benefits

    Retired or retiring

    Hospital cover Comprehensive day-to-

    day cover Higher chronic benefits Cover for joint

    replacements and other

    age-related conditions

    Middle-aged

    Hospital cover Higher day-to-day coverChronic benefits

    70+0 5 656055504540352515 302010

    Averageclaimp

    erme

    mber

    Age

    Individual claims Family claims

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    While absolute age is important, the

    changein average age also serves as

    a key indicator for medical schemes

    as any changes in profile would result

    in the medical scheme needing to

    take corrective action in its pricing

    of benefits, especially if the age were

    to increase.

    Of the 20 schemes shown above,

    KeyHealth and Transmed clearly

    have the highest average age

    of beneficiaries. Transmed is

    characterised by an extremely high

    pensioner ratio, due partly to the

    voluntary nature of membership as

    well as the post-retirement subsidy

    offered to pensioner members.

    Medihelp and LA-Health experienced

    the largest decreases in the average

    age of beneficiaries over the three-year

    period. The decrease on Medihelp

    was caused mostly by the transfer of

    a large group of pensioners to GEMS

    as noted earlier, while the decrease on

    LA-Health was a result of significant

    growth in younger members.

    Average age of beneficiaries

    -5

    -4

    -3

    -2

    -1

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    Discovery

    Bonitas

    Mome

    ntum

    Medih

    elp

    Bestm

    ed

    Medshie

    ld

    Fedhealth

    Liberty

    Sizwe

    KeyH

    ealth

    GEMS

    Polm

    ed

    Bankme

    d

    Transme

    d

    LA-Health

    Platin

    umHealth

    SAMW

    UMED

    Sasolm

    ed

    Motoh

    ealth

    Care

    Profm

    ed

    Changeinaverageage

    Averageage

    Medical scheme

    Three-year change 2013

    The following graph considers the average age of each of the schemes included in this years analysis.It also includes the change in the average age of each of the schemes from 31 December 2010 to

    31 December 2013 (a three-year change).

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    Similar to the trends in the average

    age, the pensioner ratio, defined as

    the percentage of principal members

    over the age of 65 years, of restricted

    schemes has decreased in general

    since 2005 while the pensioner ratio

    in the open scheme environment

    has increased since 2005. However,

    the trend across schemes, whether

    restricted or open, has been slowly

    increasing in the last few years since

    2011. This indicates that a higher

    percentage of older and, most likely,

    less healthy members are participating

    in the medical scheme environment.

    This is either as a result of fewer

    younger members joining medical

    schemes or younger members joining

    at a rate that is not in line with the

    rate of ageing.

    The above may point to the question

    of whether the current entry level

    controls available to medical schemes

    to manage anti-selective behaviour,

    such as waiting periods and late joiner

    penalties, are indeed sufficient to

    manage the systemic risk of an open

    enrolment environment.

    Trend in pensioner ratio

    Open schemes Restricted schemesAll schemes

    0%

    1%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    6%

    7%

    8%

    9%

    10%

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Pensionerratio

    Year

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    Medical schemes work on the

    concept of risk pooling, where the

    risk contribution charged to members

    is based on a combination of

    the following: The expected medical expenses

    of the entire membership

    group (claims) The costs associated with any

    administration of claims and

    day-to-day operations (non-

    healthcare expenses) The interest or returns expected from

    the schemes assets.

    2.4 Contributions

    Where the schemes claims and

    expenses exceed contributions,

    investment income is required to

    subsidise this shortfall. Any remaining

    investment income is then added to

    the reserves of the scheme and serves

    to increase its accumulated funds.

    However, where investment income is

    not sufficient to cover this shortfall, the

    scheme is forced to use its reserves,

    which serves to decrease accumulated

    funds and hence solvency levels.

    Although medical schemes are not

    supposed to use investment income

    when setting contribution rates, inreality, they are often forced to do so

    for reasons including increasing costs

    of claims, adverse claims experience

    and cross-subsidisation between

    benefit options.

    The graph below considers the

    allocation of risk contributions of the

    top 10 open schemes, together with

    the totals for open and restricted

    schemes and the industry as a whole.

    Where the contribution to reserves sits

    below the 0% line, schemes have used

    part or all of their investment income to

    fund for claims and expenses. In some

    cases, where investment income has

    not been sufficient, schemes have hadto use their reserves, placing additional

    pressure on solvency levels.

    Contributions + Investment Income Claims + Expenses

    In simple terms, medical scheme pricing

    could be described by four main factors,

    illustrated in the following equation:

    Allocation of contribution income in 2013

    Medical savings account Healthcare expenditure Non-healthcare expenditure Contribution to reserves

    Percentageofgrosscontributionincome

    Medical scheme

    -10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    110%

    Discovery

    Bonitas

    Momentum

    Medihelp

    Bestmed

    Medshield

    Fedhealth

    Liberty

    Sizwe

    KeyHealth

    GEMS

    Polmed

    Bankmed

    Transmed

    LA-Health

    Platinum

    Health

    SAMW

    UMED

    Sasolmed

    Motohealth

    Care

    Profmed

    Open

    Restricted

    Industry

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    The diagram below compares medical

    scheme contribution inflation, and

    medical care and healthcare expense

    inflation trends, to CPI inflation over

    the past 14 years, where: CPI inflationis the weighted average

    price inflation in different sectors

    and indicates the general level of

    price increases. Viewed in isolation,

    it doesnt necessarily give a true

    reflection of cost pressures in a

    particular sector. Individual sectors

    may experience cost increases that

    differ from CPI inflation, as is the

    case in the healthcare sector.

    Medical schemes contribution

    inflationis calculated for all medical

    schemes who submit annual

    financial returns to the Registrar

    of Medical Schemes. Percentage

    increases are based on the average

    contribution per principal member

    per month, and allow for normal

    medical scheme contribution

    increases, as well as buy-ups and

    buy-downs to other benefit options.

    Changes in contributions due to

    family size or family composition are

    also taken into account.

    Medical care and health expense

    inflationis measured by Statistics

    South Africa and is based on that

    component of CPI which relates to

    doctors fees, nurses fees, hospital

    fees, nursing home fees, medical

    and pharmaceutical products and

    therapeutic appliances.

    2.5 Inflationary trends

    Consumer

    price inflation

    5.8% per year

    Medical scheme

    contribution

    inflation

    7.5% per year

    Medical inflation

    7.9% per year

    14-year period

    Over the 14-year period, medical care and health expenses inflation has been on average 7.9% per year, while CPI

    inflation averaged 5.8%, resulting in a gap of 2.1% per year. During the same period, average medical scheme

    contribution inflation was 7.5% per year, resulting in actual increases in medical scheme contributions per principal

    member exceeding CPI inflation by at least 1.7% per year.

    The general rule of thumb used in the industry

    is that medical inflation (medical care and

    health expenses inflation) is approximately

    2% to 3% higher than CPI inflation, with this

    variance being mainly due to:

    High increases in healthcare service provider fees A rising disease burden Increasing benefit utilisation New medical technologies The requirement to build reserves to 25% Certain benefit enhancements.

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    These differences in inflationary trends

    have reduced in recent years and this

    is most likely as a result of efforts by

    medical schemes in managing the

    costs charged by providers. While this

    would have a direct impact on medical

    scheme contribution increases, the

    further reduction in the gap between

    average medical scheme contribution

    inflation and CPI inflation indicates

    the extent of member buy-downs

    to lower cost benefit options, new

    entrants joining low-income options,

    and changes to family size, possibly

    through the removal of dependants due

    to affordability constraints.

    The graph below provides a high-level

    indication of the average headline

    contribution increases announced by

    medical schemes from 2006 to 2014

    and compares this to average CPI.

    Note that we have taken an arithmetic

    average for illustrative purposes

    and have only included the medical

    schemes where this information

    is available. Also note that these

    increases are based on the headline

    increases announced by individual

    schemes and the method of

    calculation may vary. It does, however,

    provide some useful information

    regarding real contribution increases

    faced by members.

    Average contribution increases

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    Discovery Bonitas Momentum Medihelp Bestmed Medshield Fedhealth Liberty Sizwe CPI

    Averageheadlinec

    ontributionincrease

    Medical scheme

    The average headline contribution increases for the top nine open

    medical schemes have far exceeded average CPI since 2006; in fact,

    by an average of 3.4%.

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    One of the main components

    influencing the performance of

    a medical scheme is its claims

    experience. We consider the

    claims ratio as well as the actual

    level of claims that are paid by

    medical schemes.

    Healthcare expenditure includes all

    payments made in respect of claims

    incurred by members. The risk

    claims ratio is defined as the ratio

    of risk claims to risk contributions

    (the proportion of contributions that

    are used to fund claims, excluding

    any allowance for medical savings

    accounts). The risk claims ratio for

    all medical schemes decreased to

    86.4% in 2013 from 87.7% in 2012.

    In 2013, open medical schemes had

    a total risk claims ratio of 83.7%

    compared to the 89.9% experienced by

    restricted medical schemes.

    Restricted schemes do not always have

    to fund for certain non-healthcare

    expenditure items such as distribution

    costs and broker fees and, as a result,

    can often afford to use a higher

    percentage of risk contributions

    towards risk claims than open

    medical schemes. This trend is clearly

    illustrated in the graph above.

    The graph above also shows a cyclical

    trend. This is most likely caused by the

    lag effect of medical schemes annual

    pricing exercises. Where a scheme

    has experienced adverse claims

    during the year, it would usually only

    correct that experience through higher

    contributions or benefit reductions

    (and hence lower relative claims) in the

    next financial year, and this corrective

    action often needs to take place over at

    least two years.

    Medical schemes usually perform their

    benefits and contributions reviews in

    September of each year, using data

    for only a part of that year. Where

    experience has been adverse in the

    first part of the year and is therefore

    included in the data used for the

    purposes of pricing, allowances can be

    made to make up for this experience in

    the next financial year. However, where

    the adverse experience occurs in the

    latter part of the year and has therefore

    not been allowed for in the pricing of

    benefits into the next year, this adverse

    experience must be made up two

    years later. In addition, the adverse

    experience in the latter part of the year

    has a direct impact on the reserves and

    solvency levels of the scheme going

    into the next year and this must also be

    made up.

    2.6 Healthcare (claims) expenditure

    Trend in claims ratios

    Open schemes Restricted schemes 85% lineAll schemes

    Year

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    110%

    120%

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Riskclaims

    asa%o

    friskcontributions

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    In general, medical schemes with a

    risk claims ratio of above 85% face the

    challenge of achieving an operating

    surplus (contributions less claims

    and expenses) while containing non-

    healthcare expenses below the CMS

    generally accepted guideline of 10% of

    contributions and building reserves to a

    sustainable level.

    Although 85% is the generally

    accepted benchmark for the claims

    ratio, the ideal ratio for a particular

    scheme will depend on its current

    circumstances such as the current

    adequacy of contributions, the level of

    non-healthcare expenses, the need for

    reserve building and the schemes long-

    term strategy.

    The graph below illustrates the average

    claims and contributions paid per

    beneficiary per month (PBPM), as well

    as the risk claims ratio in 2013, for the

    20 schemes included in the Diagnosis

    this year. Only 5 of the 20 schemes

    achieved a claims ratio below 85%.

    While claims ratios indicate the

    adequacy of contribution levels,

    the actual average claims paid

    per beneficiary indicate the level

    of benefits provided by a scheme.

    The graph above clearly shows that

    KeyHealth paid the highest amount in

    claims per beneficiary during 2013,

    followed by Sasolmed and Fedhealth.

    These three schemes also had thehighest contribution income per

    beneficiary during the year.

    The actual healthcare costs funded by

    medical schemes are driven largely by

    the distribution of members between

    options, the profile of members, and

    the structure of benefits provided on

    various options, such as traditional or

    new-generation plans.

    The utilisation of services is influenced

    by demographic factors (age profileand pensioner ratio), the incidence

    and distribution of disease (often

    called disease burden) and advances

    in diagnostic technology and biological

    drugs. However, owing to the errors in

    the utilisation statistics contained in

    the CMS Annual Report, as highlighted

    by Circular 43 of 2014, we have not

    included an in-depth analysis of the

    latest utilisation statistics as we do

    not feel that this would provide an

    objective view of the current situation.

    Claims and contributions by scheme

    70%

    75%

    80%

    85%

    90%

    95%

    100%

    R0

    R200

    R400

    R600

    R800

    R1 000

    R1 200

    R1 400

    R1 600

    R1 800

    R2 000

    Discovery

    Bonitas

    Mome

    ntum

    Medih

    elp

    Bestm

    ed

    Medshie

    ld

    Fedh

    ealth

    Libert

    y

    Sizwe

    KeyH

    ealth

    GEMS

    Polm

    ed

    Bankme

    d

    Tran

    smed

    LA-Health

    Platin

    umHealth

    SAMW

    UMED

    Sasolm

    ed

    Motoh

    ealth

    Care

    Profm

    ed

    Riskclaimsratio

    Averagecontribution/claimp

    erbeneficiarypermonth(PBPM)

    Medical scheme

    Average contributions PBPM Average claims PBPM 85% line 2013 claims ratio

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    Non-healthcare expenditure (NHE)

    includes administration fees, managed

    care costs, broker commission,

    distribution costs, bad debts and

    reinsurance costs. The CMS has a

    general guideline for medical schemes

    of maintaining NHE at or below 10% of

    contribution income.

    Total NHE, as a proportion of gross

    contribution income (GCI), decreased

    very slightly to 11.1% in 2013 from

    11.2% in 2012 and 11.3% in 2011.

    The slight but steady decline in non-

    healthcare expenditure since 2006

    allows for a larger component of

    member contributions to be available

    for paying claims, which reduces the

    need for higher future contribution

    increases and allows for some level of

    reserve building.

    Restricted schemes are expected

    to have lower non-healthcare costs

    primarily because they have lower

    or no distribution expenses or broker

    fees and certain operating expenses

    may be subsidised by the participating

    employer(s).

    In 2013, NHE as a proportion of

    gross contribution income was 13.3%

    (2012: 13.6%) for open schemes

    and 8% (2012: 7.7%) for restricted

    schemes. This low level of NHE within

    restricted schemes is driven to a large

    extent by GEMS. Excluding GEMS from

    this calculation would result in NHE

    as a proportion of gross contribution

    income being 8.7% for restricted

    medical schemes in 2013.

    On the assumption that NHE increases

    with CPI, whereas contributions

    increase in line with medical inflation,

    which is usually more than CPI each

    year, we would expect the proportion

    paid to NHE to decrease over time,

    irrespective of whether additional cost

    control measures are introduced. As a

    result, a more suitable measure of NHE

    is the absolute cost per member.

    2.7 Non-healthcare expenditure

    Trend in non-healthcare expenditure

    Open schemes Restricted schemesAll schemes

    Year

    0%

    2%

    4%

    6%

    8%

    10%

    12%

    14%

    16%

    18%

    20%

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    NHEasa%o

    fGCI

    10% line

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    2.8 Financial performance

    Trend in operating results

    Year

    -R3 000

    -R2 000

    -R1 000

    R0

    R1 000

    R2 000

    R3 000

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Operatingresult(Rmillion)

    Open medical schemes Restricted medical schemes All medical schemes

    There was a significant improvement

    in the overall operating results of

    the industry from 2012 to 2013.

    In 2013, the industry managed

    to achieve the most substantial

    operating surplus since 2004: total

    risk contributions exceeded risk claims

    and non-healthcare expenses by

    R1 551.78 million. Restricted

    schemes achieved an overall operating

    surplus of R925.24 million (2012:

    R86.81 million) and open medical

    schemes achieved an operating surplus

    of R626.54 million (2012: deficit of

    R61.06 million).

    In 2013, 33% (8 of 24) of open

    schemes and 57.1% (36 of 63)

    of restricted schemes achieved an

    operating surplus. By comparison,

    48% (12 of 25) of open schemes

    and 55.2% (37 of 67) of restricted

    schemes achieved an operating

    surplus in 2012.

    One of the key factors used to measure the

    performance of a medical scheme is the

    operating result. A schemes operating result

    is an indication of its financial soundness

    after claims and non-healthcare expenditure

    are deducted from contribution income.

    It shows the surplus or deficit before

    investment income. Drivers of strong financial

    performance by medical schemes include:

    Appropriate benefit pricing

    Adequate risk management and claims control

    Favourable age and risk profile of the

    membership base

    Low non-healthcare expenditure.

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    Schemes incurring operating deficits

    have to rely on investment income to

    achieve a breakeven result on a net

    level. During 2013, the addition of

    investment and other income resulted

    in schemes achieving an overall net

    surplus of R5 255.72 million. Open

    schemes achieved an overall net

    result of R2 332.16 million (2012:

    R1 642.99 million) and restricted

    schemes achieved an overall net

    surplus of R2 923.56 million (2012:R2 047.59 million).

    In 2013, 75% (18 of 24) of open

    schemes and 93.7% (59 of 63) of

    restricted schemes achieved a net

    surplus. By comparison, 84% (21 of

    25) of open schemes and 86.6% (58

    of 67) of restricted schemes achieved a

    net surplus in 2012.

    The graph on the following page shows

    the financial performance of the top 10

    open schemes and top 10 restricted

    schemes ranked according to size.

    Trend in net results

    Year

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Open medical schemes Restricted medical schemes All medical schemes

    -R500

    R0

    R500

    R1 000

    R1 500

    R2 000

    R2 500

    R3 000

    R3 500

    R4 000

    R4 500

    R5 000

    R5 500

    Netresult(Rmillion)

    Schemes incurring operating deficits have to rely on investment

    income to achieve a breakeven or positive result on a net level.

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    Schemes financial performance for 2013

    -R200

    R0

    R200

    R400

    R600

    R800

    R1 000

    R1 200

    R1 400

    R1 600

    Discovery

    Bonitas

    Mome

    ntum

    Medih

    elp

    Bestm

    ed

    Medshie

    ld

    Fedhealth

    Libert

    y

    Sizwe

    KeyH

    ealth

    GEMS

    Polm

    ed

    Bankme

    d

    Transm

    ed

    LA-Health

    Platin

    umHealth

    SAMW

    UMED

    Sasolm

    ed

    Motoh

    ealth

    Care

    Profm

    ed

    O

    perating/netresult(Rmillion)

    Medical scheme

    Operating result Net result

    Of the 20 schemes considered in this years Diagnosis, 10 did not manage to achieve a surplusat an operating level and therefore had to rely on investment income to subsidise claims and non-

    healthcare expenditure during 2013. In addition, two schemes achieved a netdeficit which reduced

    accumulated funds.

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    Where medical schemes do not

    achieve surpluses at an operating

    level, they become reliant on the

    investment returns earned over the

    year to fund part of their claims and

    non-healthcare expenditure. In 2013,

    49.4% (43 of 87) of medical schemes

    failed to achieve an operating surplus

    and therefore had to draw on their

    investment returns, placing additional

    pressure on solvency levels.

    This strategy is not sustainable unless

    investment returns are able to keep

    pace with, and preferably exceed,

    claims inflation. At present, however,

    most medical schemes have adopted

    very conservative investment strategies

    as shown in the following graph. The

    graph shows the asset allocation for

    19 out of the 20 schemes under

    consideration in this publication

    and reflects what is available in the

    schemes annual reports.

    There are various asset class limits

    placed on medical schemes in

    Annexure B of the Regulations to

    the Medical Schemes Act, but most

    schemes are operating well inside the

    limits for riskier asset classes. The limit

    on equities is 40%, with the limit on

    property being 10%. This implies that

    schemes could have up to 50% of theirinvestments in these higher-risk asset

    classes whose returns are generally

    expected to exceed CPI inflation. The

    allowable exposure to conservative

    asset classes, such as cash, money

    market instruments and bonds, is

    unlimited. The only restrictions on

    these asset classes are on the exposure

    to specific issuers, to ensure some level

    of diversification.

    2.9 Investments

    Asset allocation as at 31 December 2013

    Note:The annual financial statements for Momentum did not provide enough detail to perform this analysis.

    -10%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Discovery

    Bonit

    as

    Medih

    elp

    Bestm

    ed

    Medshie

    ld

    Fedhealth

    Liberty

    Sizwe

    KeyH

    ealth

    GEMS

    Polm

    ed

    Bankme

    d

    Transme

    d

    LA-Health

    Platinum

    Health

    SAMW

    UMED

    Sasolm

    ed

    Motoh

    ealth

    Care

    Profm

    ed

    Medical scheme

    Solvency

    Assetallocation

    Cash & money market Bonds Equities Property Collective investment vehicles

    Other Solvency

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    The solvency ratio is the level of

    reserves (accumulated funds) that

    a medical scheme needs to hold as

    a percentage of gross annualised

    contributions. Regulation 29

    promulgated in terms of the Medical

    Schemes Act (131 of 1998) prescribes

    that medical schemes maintain a

    minimum solvency ratio of 25%.

    The graph below shows the solvency

    levels of open and restricted schemes

    against the statutory level over the

    past 14 years. The increase in industry

    solvency levels from 2000 to 2004 is

    primarily attributable to the calculated

    efforts of medical schemes to build

    reserves to the prescribed minimum

    solvency level that was required by

    31 December 2004.

    Restricted schemes on average have

    maintained higher solvency compared

    to open schemes. From 2006,

    the solvency level for all restricted

    schemes declined because of rapid

    GEMS membership growth. The

    average solvency of open schemes has

    remained relatively stable since 2006.

    In 2013, the average solvency for all

    schemes was 33.3% (2012: 32.6%).

    The solvency ratio of open schemes

    increased to 29.7% in 2013 (2012:

    29.1%). Restricted schemes solvency

    levels increased for the first time since

    2007, from 37.4% in 2012 to 38.2%

    in 2013.

    2.10 Solvency levels

    In 2013 nine medical schemes

    were unable to achieve the statutory

    minimum solvency level of 25%:

    Discovery Hosmed Liberty Pharos (amalgamated with Topmed on 1 January 2014) Resolution Thebemed

    GEMS Transmed Umvuzo

    Trend in solvency levels

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Solve

    ncy

    Year

    Prescribed minimum solvency All open medical schemesAll medical schemes

    Restricted medical schemes (excluding GEMS)All restricted medical schemes

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    The suitability of the current solvency

    framework requiring schemes to

    allocate a minimum of 25% of gross

    contributions to reserves has long

    been debated. Reasons that support

    the need to revisit the current

    framework include: Appropriateness of a one size fits

    all approach. Medical scheme

    claims experience is likely to be

    more stable for larger schemes, so

    the solvency requirements should

    be less onerous, while solvency

    requirements for smaller schemesshould be higher.

    On the one hand, schemes showing

    membership growth are penalised

    from a solvency perspective. On the

    other hand, schemes losing members

    are rewarded. This is due to the

    nature of the solvency calculation

    formula. Therefore, schemes that are

    growing are less competitive because

    of the need to build and maintain

    solvency levels.

    Through Circulars 12, 17 and 28

    of 2012, the CMS invited industry

    stakeholders to make submissions onan appropriate solvency framework for

    medical schemes.

    Alexander Forbes Healths submission

    proposes using a Risk Based

    Framework as the most appropriate

    measure for medical schemes in

    South Africa. The Risk Based

    Framework considers the size and the

    specific risk exposure of a scheme

    to measure the minimum amount

    of capital required to support the

    schemes overall operations.

    To date, no feedback has been

    received from the regulator, although

    it is understood that many partiesprovided input into an appropriate

    solvency framework.

    Solvency levels by scheme

    Medical scheme

    Three-yearchange

    Solvency

    in

    2013

    Three-year change 2013 25% line

    -25%

    -15%

    -5%

    5%

    15%

    25%

    35%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    Discovery

    Bonitas

    Mome

    ntum

    Medih

    elp

    Bestm

    ed

    Medshie

    ld

    Fedh

    ealth

    Libert

    y

    Sizwe

    KeyH

    ealth

    GEMS

    Polm

    ed

    Bankme

    d

    Transm

    ed

    LA-Health

    Platin

    umHealth

    SAMW

    UMED

    Sasolm

    ed

    Profm

    ed

    Motoh

    ealth

    Care

    The graph below illustrates the change in solvency levels from 2010 to 2013 for the 10 largest open and10 largest restricted schemes in terms of principal members. Four of these schemes failed to reach the

    25% regulatory solvency level at the end of 2013.

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    3. Medical Schemes Sustainability Index

    The Alexander Forbes Health Medical Schemes Sustainability

    Index attempts to do this by combining certain key factors and

    considering their impact to a medical scheme in future years. The

    index has been calculated from a base year of 2006 and considers

    the following factors:

    With the continued consolidation of medical schemes in the industry as well as rising claims costs, thesustainability of medical schemes and the assessment thereof have become increasingly important for all

    industry stakeholders. Throughout this publication we have analysed key statistics of medical schemes but

    it is difficult to assess how their collective impact affects the sustainability of a medical scheme.

    The size of the schemerelative to the average scheme size in the industry. A larger membership base would reduce

    volatility in the claims experience and benefit from economies of scale.

    Membership growthover time indicates that benefits are attractive. In addition, an increase in size serves to reduce

    volatility of the schemes claims experience.

    The change in the average ageof beneficiaries over time. An increasing average age indicates a worsening profile and

    higher expected claims. This would require a medical scheme to adjust its base pricing for benefits through either

    contribution increases or benefit reductions.

    The operating resultof the scheme relative to the industry each year as this would indicate the medical schemes

    performance relative to its peers.

    The change in the operating resultper beneficiary each year. The operating result should give an indication of

    the suitability of current contribution levels and whether higher or lower contribution increases can be expected

    in the next year.

    The change in the accumulated funds per beneficiaryheld at the end of each year. Accumulated funds essentially

    act as a buffer against adverse claims experience, and an increase in the accumulated funds per beneficiary would

    improve this buffer.

    The schemes actual solvency relative to the statutory requirement. Although there is debate regarding the suitability of

    the current statutory requirement, schemes whose solvency is below 25% are required to have business plans in place

    with the CMS and their contribution increases would include an element of additional reserve-building going forward.

    Higher than average contribution increases would have a negative impact on the schemes marketability.

    The trend in the schemes solvency. Increasing solvency levels over time would also support the sustainability of a

    medical scheme.

    Using a base year of 2006, these

    factors are considered for each of the

    years from 2007 to 2013 with the final

    index score reflecting the cumulative

    impact over this period. The medical

    schemes are ranked from highest to

    lowest to give an indication of their

    relative sustainability. It is important

    to note that the purpose of the index is

    to provide a comparative assessment

    between schemes, and as such, the

    relative positioning is more important

    than the absolute score. It is also

    important to note that small differences

    in the scores (between 10 to 20 points)

    are not material.

    The graph on the following page shows

    the 2012 and 2013 index scores for

    each of the top 10 open and top 10

    restricted medical schemes, using a

    base year of 2006.

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    At an industry level, the index has

    increased consistently since 2006.

    This is driven by an increase in

    the membership base, the level of

    accumulated funds and the current

    level of solvency of 33.3%. The index

    has also consistently increased for both

    restricted and open schemes. This was

    driven by increased accumulated funds

    and improving operating results for

    open medical schemes and improvedsolvency levels and membership growth

    for restricted medical schemes.

    Sizwes membership base reduced

    significantly during the year. This was

    offset by an immediate improvement in

    solvency and a significant turnaround

    in the operating result (from a deficit of

    R57.4 million in 2012 to a surplus of

    R117.9 million in 2013).

    A slowdown in the growth of

    beneficiaries on GEMS, combined with

    an improved operating result (from adeficit of R144.6 million in 2012 to

    a surplus of R776.9 million in 2013),

    improved the schemes solvency level

    from 7.9% to 11.7%. Despite the

    improvement in the index over the last

    year, GEMS currently ranks at number

    eight on the index due to an increasing

    average age as well as solvency being

    well below the regulated minimum

    of 25%.

    Discovery is currently ranked second

    on the index owing to its increasing

    membership and strong financial

    performance over the last few years.

    Despite its high ranking, the growth in

    its index score has slowed down as a

    result of solvency levels, which haveremained below the 25% requirement

    since 2010.

    The following two graphs show the

    trend in Index scores from 2006 to

    2013, for open and restricted medical

    schemes respectively.

    Medical Schemes Sustainability Index: 2012 and 2013 (base year: 2006)

    Medical scheme

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    30%

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    Industry

    Restrictedschemes

    Open

    schemes

    Polmed

    Discovery

    Fedhealth

    LA-Health

    Bankmed

    Medihelp

    Sasolmed

    GEMS

    SAMW

    UMED

    Bonitas

    Medshield

    Momentum

    Profm

    edSizwe

    Bestmed

    Platinum

    Health

    KeyHealth

    Liberty

    Motohealth

    Care

    Transmed

    C

    hangefrom2

    012to2013

    Ind

    exscore(baseyear:2006)

    2012 2013 2013 change

    In 2013, all of the top 20

    schemes had an increase

    in the index value, with

    the largest increases seen

    by Sizwe and GEMS.

    31

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    There has been a general increasing

    trend in index scores of open schemes

    since 2006. Many schemes scores

    have improved consistently over

    this period, but some schemes,

    such as Liberty and Medihelp, have

    experienced a slowdown in this growth.

    KeyHealth ranked near the bottom

    for most of the last few years due

    to solvency levels below 25% and

    reducing membership levels. However,

    steady improvement has been observed

    since 2010, as solvency levels have

    consistently increased and were above

    25% for the first time in 2013. In

    addition, the scheme has achieved

    significant operating surpluses in

    recent years, resulting in higher

    accumulated funds.

    Open scheme index trends

    There has been a general increasing trend in index scores of open

    schemes since 2006.

    Index

    score

    Year

    SizweMedshield Fedhealth Liberty KeyHealth

    Bonitas Momentum BestmedMedihelpDiscovery

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    220

    240

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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    Polmed is currently ranked number

    one on the index and has improved

    significantly since 2010. This is due to

    the schemes size, membership growth,

    increasing accumulated funds and

    solvency levels.

    Although Transmeds index score

    has improved in the last two years, it

    still ranks last because of an ageing

    profile, a continuous reduction in

    membership and solvency levels below

    the regulatory requirement of 25%.

    Restricted scheme index trends

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    180

    200

    220

    240

    260

    280

    2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    Index

    score

    Year

    Motohealth CarePlatinum Health SAMWUMED Sasolmed Profmed

    Polmed Bankmed LA-HealthTransmedGEMS

    33

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    From this years analysis, the following key observations can be made:

    The number of medical schemes decreased to 87 in 2013 from 92 in 2012.

    The number of principal members increased marginally by 1.6% in 2013 (2012: 2.3%). Principal members in 2013 totalled

    3 878 267 (2012: 3 815 431).

    The average age of beneficiaries has decreased slightly to 31.9 years in 2013 (2012: 32 years), with the pensioner ratio

    remaining stable at 7.1%.

    Family size has continued to decrease. In 2013 the average family size was 2.26 compared to 2.27 in 2012.

    The risk claims ratio for all schemes decreased to 86.4% in 2013 (2012: 87.7%).

    Total non-healthcare expenditure as a percentage of gross contribution income remained stable at 11.1% in 2013.

    In 2013, 50.6% (44 of 87) of schemes achieved an operating surplus. By comparison, 53.3% (49 of 92) of schemes achieved

    an operating surplus in 2012.

    During 2013, most scheme assets were held as cash, either in bank accounts or via money market instruments.

    The average solvency for all schemes increased to 33.3% in 2013 compared to 32.6% in 2012.

    All 20 schemes included in this years analysis experienced an increase in the Medical Schemes Sustainability Index value.

    4. Conclusion

    Despite this, the medical schemes industry in South Africa

    faces unique challenges in the build-up to full implementation

    of National Health Insurance. The demarcation between health

    insurance policies and medical scheme cover, findings of

    the inquiry into private healthcare sector pricing and further

    regulatory reform by way of the Medical Schemes Amendments

    Bill are likely to transform the landscape of private healthcare

    funding over the next decade.

    The 2013 financial year saw

    continued consolidation through

    the amalgamation of unsustainable

    medical schemes, which should

    serve to improve the sustainability

    of the industry as a whole. In

    addition, the profile of the industry

    is mostly stable and the overall

    financial position is sound.

    34

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    For more information please contact:

    5. Alexander Forbes Health

    Technical and Actuarial Consulting Solutions (TACS) is a professionalindependent actuarial and consulting unit within Alexander Forbes

    Health (Pty) Ltd. The Alexander Forbes Health team has been

    delivering innovative and customised healthcare solutions to corporate

    clients, medical schemes and individuals since 1991.

    We would like to thank the following members of the Technical and Actuarial Consulting

    Solutions (TACS) and Research & Product Development teams for their contribution to this

    years publication:

    Cecilia Augustine

    Stefan Bekker

    Roshan Bhana

    Anne Cabot-Alletzhauzer

    Kristin-Ann Cronj

    Natalie De Wit

    Anthea Towert

    Amy Underwood

    Sources:Council for Medical Schemes Annual Reports (2000 to 2013). Audited annual

    financial statements of medical schemes.

    Roshan BhanaBranch Head: [email protected] 269 1798

    Casper De VriesActuarial (Coastal), [email protected] 809 3626

    Anthea TowertScheme Consulting, [email protected] 269 0507

    Kristin-Ann CronjResearch & ProductDevelopment

    [email protected] 269 0814

    Alison CounihanActuarial (Sandton), [email protected] 269 0557

    35

    DIAGNOSIS 2014/2015

    mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]
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    Head office Sandton

    Alexander Forbes, 115 West Street, Sandown

    PO Box 787240, Sandown, 2146

    Telephone (South Africa): 011 269 0000

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    Telephone: 011 269 2690

    Fax: 011 263 2397

    [email protected]