Alex de Waal, The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa
-
Upload
ipss-addis -
Category
News & Politics
-
view
742 -
download
1
Transcript of Alex de Waal, The Real Politics of the Horn of Africa
‘Who, whom.’
Lenin defines politics
“There are two things that are important in politics.
Senator Mark Hanna (R-Ohio), also President William McKinley’s campaign manager 1896 and 1900
The first is money . . . and I can't remember what the second one is.”
Majzoub al Khalifa (NCP-Khartoum), Sudanese party manager and chief negotiator for Darfur peace talks
‘What is important in politics is having the political budget [sanduq al siyasi] needed for the political market [suq al siyasi].’
The second one is political business skills ….
Key Concepts
• The political market– Supply and demand for loyalties/political services
• The political budget
• Political business management
...and turbulence
‘The stable, cumulative, and systemic concept of institutions … becomes, blunt and illogical when applied to a reality that seems, to those who live it, altogether less settled. [Africans] have to apply reason and judgment to horizons of contingency rather than applying a narrow calculative rationality to given variables.’
Jane Guyer
1970s1970s
1990s
2010s
Government of Sudan spending; coups (red) and successful peace agreements (green); and military or democratic government; 1970-2012
Data from World Bank. Consumption expenditure is used as a closer proxy for political budget
‘War belongs to politics, and violence derives from the situation rather than from radical enmity. War is not waged because there are enemies; there are enemies because a war is waged.’
Marielle Debos
Somalia
Somaliland
A business-political contract...
or the allocation of commercial rent to state-building
‘Political Market’ Challenges for Ethiopia
• Domestic context
• Regional environment
• Extra-regional environment
• Global environment
Intersection between them
Domestic challenges
• A contemporary developmental state must be democratic– And must avoid ‘intellectual rent-seeking’
• The centralization of rent allocation places vast discretionary power in the hands of the authorities– There will be (some) corruption: the question is
how much and how it is organized
Regional challenges
A turbulent region in which the facts regularly change requiring us to re-think• Growth of an integrated regional political market• Ethiopia’s national security and its
developmental project are inextricably inter-linked
• Regional political, security, infrastructural and trade integration are strategic
Extra-regional challenges
• The Horn of Africa is becoming part of the Red Sea security complex– Within the strategic security perimeter of Saudi
Arabia– 13% of the world’s maritime trade and 50% of
Europe’s maritime trade– Increasing flows of security cooperation and
peacekeeping funds
Global Challenges
• Economic globalization and the risks of turbulence
• Global inequality and the rising cost of politics– Both intensifying the marketization of politics
• Militarization of the Greater Middle East
• Climate change