Alert Status of Nuclear Weapons - Federation of American … · 2017-05-23 · Alert Status of...
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www.fas.org Alert Status of Nuclear Weapons (Version 2) Hans M. Kristensen Director, Nuclear Informa;on Project Federa;on of American Scien;sts [email protected] | 202-454-4695 Briefing to Short Course on Nuclear Weapon and Related Security Issues American Physical Society’s Forum on Physics/Society, GWU EllioY School, FAS, AAPT George Washington University, EllioY School of Interna;onal Affairs Washington, DC April 21, 2017
Transcript of Alert Status of Nuclear Weapons - Federation of American … · 2017-05-23 · Alert Status of...
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AlertStatusofNuclearWeapons(Version2)
HansM.Kristensen
Director,NuclearInforma;onProjectFedera;onofAmericanScien;sts
[email protected]|202-454-4695
BriefingtoShortCourseonNuclearWeaponandRelatedSecurityIssues
AmericanPhysicalSociety’sForumonPhysics/Society,GWUEllioYSchool,FAS,AAPTGeorgeWashingtonUniversity,EllioYSchoolofInterna;onalAffairs
Washington,DC
April21,2017
www.fas.org
Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 2
Overview:NuclearAlertForcesFournuclear-armedstatesdeploynuclearwarheadsonalert,readytobeusedonrela;velyshortno;ce:UnitedStates,Russia,FranceandBritain.
Combined,thefourcountriesdeployanes;mated1,869nuclearalertwarheads.
RussiaandtheUnitedStatesdeploy1,749alertwarheadscombined,or94%ofallalertwarheads.
Despitesomedebateaboutpossibleneedtoincreasereadinessofnuclearforces(China,Pakistan),thefiveotherfivenuclear-armedstates(China,Pakistan,India,IsraelandNorthKorea)arethoughttostoretheirwarheadsseparatefromlaunchersundernormalcircumstances.
Theoverallnumberofalertwarheadshasremainedrela;velystableduringthepastfiveyears.
Estimated Nuclear Alert Forces, 2017 Country Stockpiled Warheads Alert Warheads
United States 4,000 852
Russia 4,300 897
France 300 80a
Britain 215 40a
China 270 0
Pakistan 140 0
India 120 0
Israel 80 0
North Korea (10-20) (0)
Total 9,425b 1,869
Note: This table defines alert warheads as those mated with deployed launchers capable of launching on relatively short notice. Alert warheads make up a portion of deployed warhead that make up a portion of stockpiled warheads. a French and British alert forces are thought to have lower readiness than U.S. and Russian alert forces and take longer to launch. b In addition to stockpiled warheads, Russia and the United States have large numbers of retired, but still relatively intact, warheads awaiting dismantlement. For global overview of nuclear forces, visit: https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 3
USNuclearAlertForces
Anes;mated852warheadswith228MTonpromptalert(readytolaunch<15min)
Alertwarheadsroughly21%oftotalstockpile
ICBMs:392warheads(125MT)Surge:300warheads(upload)
SSBNs:460warheads(103MT)Surge:1,460warheads(deployed+uploads)
Bombers:0warheadsSurge:816warheads(deployed+uploads)
Non-Strategic:0warheadsSurge:300warheads(bombs)
Alertrateassump:ons
ICBMs:MinutemanIII(98%)
SSBNs:5onhardalert(eachwith20tubes)
Bombers:None
Non-strategic:None
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 4
USNuclearAlertForces:Trends
ICBMalerttrends• Overallforcesizedecliningslightlyto400missiles• Warheaddownloadcompletedin2014(uploadretained
forMk12A/W78equippedmissiles)• NextICBM(GBSD)MIRV
SSBNalerttrends• Nearterm:SSBNtubereduc;onfrom24to20(no
overallwarheadreduc;on)• Longterm:NextSSBNclasstubereduc;onfrom20to16• SSBNfleetreduc;onfrom14to12withnextSSBN
(possiblysooneramerlastOhiorefuelings)
MobileICBMsarespendinglonger;meawayfromgarrisonsduringcombatpatroldeployments.Image:RussianMOD
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 5
RussianNuclearAlertForces
Officialstatementsappearhighlyexaggerated
OfRussia’sICBMs,asmanyas“99percentofmissilelaunchersareinthestateofcombatreadiness.”
SRFCommanderColGenSergeiKarakayev,15Dec2016
Alertrateassump:ons
ICBMs(silo):SS-18(90-95%);SS-19(65%);SS-27Mod1(90%);SS-27Mod2(90%)
ICBMs(mobile):SS-25(15%);SS-27Mod1(20%);SS-27Mod2(20%)
SSBNs:3atsea;3atpierside(~30%)
Bombers:None
Non-strategic:None
Anes;mated897warheadswith516MTonpromptalert(readytolaunch<15min)
Alertwarheadsroughly21%oftotalstockpile
ICBMs:686warheads(492MT)Silo:65-95%readinessMobile:15-20%readinessSurge:391warheads(mainlymobile)
SSBNs:211warheads(24MT)Surge:429warheads
Bombers:0warheadsSurge:616warheads(deployed+uploads)
Non-Strategic:0warheadsSurge:~1,480warheads(allbutABM/air-defense)
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 6
RussianNuclearAlertForces:Trends
ICBMalerttrends• Overallforcesizedecliningbutlevelingoutaround310+
launchers• IncreasedemphasisonMIRV• 10yearsagonomobileICBMshadMIRV;by2022~all
willhaveMIRV• Greatershareofwarheadsonmobile(loweralertlevel
buthardertofind)• Mobilesincreasedura;onofcombatpatroltours
SSBNalerttrends• SSBNopera;onsincreasingsome(despitewhatyou
hear,notColdWarlevelandnotasmuchasaYacksubmarineopera;ons),probably2-4onalertatseaplus2-4atpierside
• Warheadloadingincreasing(6MIRVonSS-N-32;4onSS-N-23;3onSS-N-18);hedgeemerging? ThefirsttwoBorei-classSSBNsappeartobeconduc;ngpatrols.
HereAlexanderNevskycompletes“combatservice”inPacificinNovember2016.Image:RussianMOD
MobileICBMsarespendinglonger;meawayfromgarrisonsduringcombatpatroldeployments.Image:RussianMOD
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 7
FrenchNuclearAlertForces
Alertrateassump:ons
SSBNs:1atseaatall;mes;secondboatonstandby
Bombers:None
Non-strategic:None
Anes;mated80warheadswith8MTonalert
Alertwarheadsroughly27%oftotalstockpile
SSBNs:80warheads(8MT)Surge:80warheads
Bombers:0warheadsSurge:40warheads
Non-Strategic:0warheadsSurge:14warheads
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 8
FrenchNuclearAlertForces:Trends
SSBNalerttrends• WarheadloadingonsomeSLBMshasbeenreducedtoallowmore
tailoredtarge;ng.• M45SLBMhasrecentlybeencompletelyreplacedbyM51SLBM
with“significantlygreaterrangeandpayloadcapacity,aswellasgreateraccuracy”.
• 100ktTN75warheadisbeingreplacedwith150ktTNOwarhead.
TheM51SLBMwillreceivenewTNOwarheadswithincreasedyield.Image:FrenchMOD
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 9
Bri:shNuclearAlertForces
Alertrateassump:ons
SSBNs:1atseaatall;mes;secondboatonstandby
Bombers:None
Non-strategic:None
Anes;mated40warheadswith4MTonalert
Alertwarheadsroughly19%oftotalstockpile
SSBNs:40warheads(4MT)Surge:80warheads
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 10
Bri:shNuclearAlertForces:Trends
SSBNalerttrends• SLBMloadinghasbeenreducedfrom16to8• Warheadloadinghasbeenreducedfrom48to40• Opera;onallyavailablewarheadshasbeenreduced
from180to120• Nextgenera;onSSBNwillhave12insteadof16tubes
ThenewBri;shDreadnought-classSSBNwillbeequippedwith12missiletubesinsteadof16ontheVanguard-class.Image:UKMOD
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 11
Par:alDealer:ngSteps
SinceendoftheColdWar,nuclearalertrateshavebeenreducedinseveralways:
• Strategicbombersweretakenoffalertin1991.
• ICBMwarheadloadingreduced(UnitedStates);NewSTARTtreatyincludedICBMMIRVbanbutwasabandonedinfavorofballis;cmissiledefensesagainstroguestates.
• SLBMwarheadloadingreduced(UnitedStates).
• De-targe;ngini;a;ves:ICBMs/SLBMstargetedatopenoceanareasduringpeace;me(note:de-targe;ngisnotdealer;ng).
• Non-strategicforcestakenoffalert.Mostwarheadsdestroyedbutremainingplacedincentralstorage.Somes;lldeployedonbasesnearlaunchers(USbombsinEurope;Frenchcruisemissiles).
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 12
PromisesToDealert
USpresiden;alcandidateshaverepeatedlypromisedtorakenuclearweaponsoffalert.
PresidentGeorgeW.BushlamentedthatColdWardifferences“wereexpressedinadangerousmilitaryconfronta;onthatresultedinthousandsofnuclearweaponspointedateachotheronhair-triggeralert.”
BarackObamapromisedto“workwithRussiatotakeU.S.andRussianballis;cmissilesoffhair-triggeralert”.
Yet,neitherBushnorObamadidsobutinsteadretainedstatusquoofnuclearalertpostures.
Russia,FranceandBritaindonotseeminterested.
ReducingAlertRatesSeenAsAGoodThing
AttheendoftheColdWarRussiahad“12,000[strategic]nuclearweapons,mostofthoseonalert…[By1999],underSTARTI,theRussianshaveabout2,000nuclearweaponsonalert[outofatotalof6,100strategicwarheadsthatyear].UnderSTARTII[outof3,000–3,500deployedstrategicwarheads],they’llbedowntoabout1,000nuclearweaponsonalert.UnderSTARTIII,ifallgoes[asplanned,thatnumberwill]bearound700nuclearweapons”.Gen.EugeneHabiger,formerSTRATCOMCommander.
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 13
Yes–No:TheDealer:ngDebate
Debateisverypolarized.
Proponentsofreducingorevendealer;ngnuclearforcesarguethatdoingsowouldreducethecompe;;vedynamicandworst-casescenarioaxtudeinnuclearforceplanningandopera;ons,aswellasreducingorelimina;ngtherisksofaccidentallaunchofnuclearforces.
Opponentsofreducing–certainlydealer;ng–nuclearforcesarguethatalertnuclearforceshelpmaintaincrisisstabilityandthatdealer;ngwouldcreatesignificantrisksofare-aler;ngraceinacrisis.
Whilethereareimportantcrisisstabilityandverifica;onissuesinbothalertedandde-alertedpostures,wefindthatevenifallUSandRussiannuclearforceswerede-alertedandonesidesecretlyre-alerted,theaggressorcouldnotbeconfidentincarryingoutadisarmingfirststrikebecauseasufficientnumberofhighlycapableforceswouldsurvivetoprovideadevasta;ngretalia;on.
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 14
Despiteconcernaboutrealer;ngeffect,bothUSandRussianescala;onstrategiesrelyonsignificantrealer;ngtosignalandboostnuclearposturesinacrisis.
USwarhead“hedge”ofnon-deployedwarheadsexplicitlyprovides“theop;onfor[the]leadershiptoincreasethenumberofopera;onallydeployedforcesinpropor;ontotheseverityofanevolvingcrisis.”
Realer:ngInExis:ngAlertPostures
DuringtheConstantVigilancealertexerciseatMinotAFBinMay2015,adozenB-52bomberswereloadedwithunarmednuclearair-launchedcruisemissiles.
“TheLRSOwillprovidearapidandflexiblehedgeagainstchangesinthestrategicenvironmentandlimita:onsoftheothertwolegsoftheTriad.UndertheNewSTARTTreaty,eachstrategicbombercountsasonelauncherandonewarhead,regardlessofthenumberofnuclearcruisemissilesandbombsinourinventory.Thisprovidesarapiduploadcapabilitytohedgeagainstgeopoli;calortechnicalsurprise.”BrianMcKeon,OSD,tesTmonybeforeCongress,February26,2015
TheUShasmorewarheadsinnon-deployedhedgethanindeployedforce(56%vs44%).Russianra;osimilarbuthedgeismainly(77%)non-strategic.
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 15
DisparityInUSAndRussianAlertPostures
Significantdifferencesinmilitaryposturescanhavesignificantimplica;ons:
• RussianICBMforcehasmorethantwicethenumberofwarheadsofUSICBMforce.
• UShas150deployedstrategiclaunchermorethanRussia;drivesRussianemphasisonMIRV.
• FutureRussianICBMforcewillbe~en;relyMIRVed;USICBMforceisdownloaded.
• LargerUSICBMforcewithfewerwarheadscanthreatensmallerRussianICBMforcecarryingmorewarheads(400warheadson400ICBMsthreatening1,000warheadson316ICBMs).
• LargerUSSLBMforcewithmorewarheadshassignificantcounterforcecapabilityinaddi;ontosecureretalia;onmission.
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 16
Whileintendedtoensurecrisisstability,alertforcescanalsohaveothernega;veeffects:
• Nuclearalertposturesdriveworst-caseandshort-fusedstrategy,postureplanninganddecisionmaking.Alertforcesrequiresadversariestomaintainforcesonalert:cyclicalertrela;onship.
• US-Russiannuclearalertposturesmightgraduallyinspiresmallernuclear-armedstatestoalsoincreasethereadinessoftheirnuclearforces(China,Pakistan).
• Whencombinedwithconven;onaloffensiveanddefensivecapabili;es,nuclearalertposturesmights;mulatesmallernuclear-armedstatestoincreasenuclearforceloadings:MIRV(ChinaandPakistan).
• Whilethereareriskswithbothalertedanddealertedpostures,arealer;ngracethattakesthreemonthsunderadealertedpostureseemspreferabletoanalertracethattakeslessthanthreehoursundercurrenthighlyalertedposture.
ShapingNuclearAlertFutures
Inour2012UNIDIRrepot,wediscussalertposturesandissuesmore.Availableonlineat:hYp://www.unidir.org/files/publica;ons/pdfs/reducing-alert-rates-of-nuclear-weapons-400.pdf
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 17
RecentEast-Westcrisisshowssignsofeffec;ngnuclearreadinessposturesandstrategies:
• Russianvocalnuclearthreatsandpuxngnuclearforcesonalert.
• Escalate-deescalatestrategiesentertaininglimitedandearlyuse.
• Talkofincreasingescala;onplanningandreadinessofdual-capableaircram.
• OPLANineffectforEUCOMwithincreasednuclearbombersupport.
• Signalingwithalertforces:bomberstrikeexercisesandandforwarddeploymentsandSSBNportvisits.
CrisesShapingAlertPostures
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Hans M. Kristensen, Federation of American Scientists, 2017 | Slide 18
Fourcountries(UnitedStates,Russia,France,Britain)havenearly1,900nuclearwarheads(94%areRussian/USwarheads)onalertonballis;cmissiles,capableoflaunchinginrela;velyshort;me.
Somesmallernuclear-armedstates(ChinaandPakistan)aredeba;ngwhethertoincreasethereadinessoftheirnuclearforces.
Overallalertlevelhavebeenrela;velystablepastfiveyearsbutsomeforcestructuresarechanging(RussianmobileICBMMIRV;USwarheadkilleffec;veness).
Signalingisincreasingwithnuclearalertforcesandforcesthatwouldbere-alertedinacrisis.
USpresiden;alcandidatespromisedtrytotakenuclearweaponsoff“hair-trigger”alertbuthavenotdoneso.
Alert-countriesopposereducingalertlevels,certainlyde-aler;ng,arguingalertforcescreatestabilityandde-aler;ngwouldcreaterisksforare-aler;ngraceinacrisis.
Opponentsofnuclearalertarguethepostureisdangerous,thatconsiderablepar;alde-aler;nghasbeendonewithoutincidents,andthatfearofre-aler;ngraceisexaggerated.
Conclusions
