9 april 2013

Demographic change in The Netherlands

Lodz, 21 Mar 2013

Aldert de Vries

Housing and Construction

Office

Ministry of the Interior and

Kingdom Relations

2

Content

• Demographic change in The Netherlands

• National and local policy responses

• Focus on economy and labour market

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Demographic transition in The Netherlands

• Stabilizing population

• Sharply rising age dependency ratio

• Relatively low fertility rates (1.75)

• Migration compensates for natural decline

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Total population (2010=100)

0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Europe

Japan

Netherlands

Poland

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Old age dependency ratio

4

Regional differentiation

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5 9 april 2013

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Labour force

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Decrease of labour force

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Migration patterns

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Population or households

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Ageing and decreasing labour force

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Impact of international migration

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Consequences - national

• School age

• reduction of labour force

• finance of public services and pensions

• from growth to renovation

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Consequences regional

• Housing (vacancies, deterioration, devaluation)

• Services (health, education, retail, culture, sport)

• Local economy (mismatch labour market, closure or outmigration of companies)

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Intergovernmental program

• Objective: to maintain the current level of liveability

• 3 “shrinkage regions””, 20 “anticipation regions”

• 3 pillars: housing/spatial planning; services; economy/labour market

• Awareness raising, process facilitation, no funding

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Pillar 1: Housing

• Vacancy, price fall

• Remaining mortgage debt

• Downward spiral of attractiveness

• Renovation and demolition

• Buy out private owners

• Clever reduction of new housing scheme

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Pillar 2: Services

• Closure of shops, schools, hospitals

• Mostly rural problem

• Relocation in central location

• Citizenship

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Pillar 3: economy and labour market

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Demography

Skill Ecosystem

Labour Market Economy

Population dynamics

Fertility Migration

Life Expectancy

Marginalisation

Mortality

Ageing

Unemployment

Employment Ageing

workforceSocial

inequalities Retention &

attract. strategies

Shortage of

qualified workers

Sector structure

White

economySilver

economy

Innovation capacity

Green growth

Skills supply

Skills utilisation

Skills demand

Education and training

Skills development

Sustainable Development

Approach

• This is focus of OECD project in NL

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Negative trends

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• High percentage of low income, low educated and unemployed

• Low economic activity

• Low levels of innovation

• Skewed sector structure (industry)

• Culture of “inactiveness”

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Current and future mismatch on labour market

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0 5000 10000

Other services

Agriculture, forest,…

Hotel and catering…

Finance

Construction

Trade

Transport and…

Industry

Government

Business services

Education

Care

Groningen

Not an issue Average Ageing Strongly ageing

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Promising responses

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• Spin off universities

• Open innovation (Chemelot campus)

• Triple helix agreements (government, education, business)

• Business strategies on personnel

• Promoting choices for promising study (“technology pact”)

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Pitfalls

• Overoptimistically count on attracting newcomers

• Lack of inclusive approach (old workers, low educated)

• Small and Medium Enterprises

• Cluster policy (chemics works, health not)

• National policies.. Incentives for innovation in health sector; life long learning; social security

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Policy issues and recommendations

• Demographic transition is unavoidable – deal with it

• Search for economic growth models in context of population decline.

• Regional cooperation instead of competition

• More initiatives from society, less top-down solutions from public sector

• Shrinkage areas are the laboratories for the rest of the country!

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