Alden swap cc chapter overview nctc june2013
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Andrea Alden Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission
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Transcript of Alden swap cc chapter overview nctc june2013
Andrea AldenFlorida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission
Relative vulnerabilities
of some SGCN
to climate change
NatureServe’s
Climate Change Vulnerability
Index
Exposure– Temperature and moisture
Indirect exposure– SLR, barriers, land use
Species sensitivity – Dispersal ability– Sensitivity to change in temp
and precipitation– Habitat specificity– Genetic factors
Dispersal, niche, disturbance – Diet, genetics, …
Response– Range, protected areas
Defenders Partnership:Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI)
Glick et al. 2011
All photos courtesy of en.wikipedia.org
CCVI: select SGCN scores
Extremely Vulnerable
Highly Vulnerable
Moderately Vulnerable
Not Vulnerable/Presumed Stable
Not Vulnerable/Increase Likely
Relative vulnerabilities
of our species
to climate change
NatureServe’s
Climate Change Vulnerability
Index tool
then
Spatially Explicit
Vulnerability Analyses
(SEVA)
Habitat modeling
And
Future land-use scenarios
Spatially Explicit Vulnerability Analyses
•6 focal species2 birds – least tern & short-tailed hawk2 reptiles – Atlantic salt marsh snake & America crocodile2 mammals – Florida panther & Key deer
50 years into the future– 2010, 2040, and 2060
Scenarios varied across 4 dimensions:– Climate change represented by sea level rise
– Changes in human population represented by urbanization
– Land & water planning policies represented by infrastructure expansion
– Availability of public resources for conservation
Future Land-Use Scenarios
Future Land-Use Scenarios
Scenario Dimensions & Future Scenarios
Scenario B – best case
Scenario E – middle
Scenario C – worst case
SEVA ProcessAmerican Crocodile Orientation
3 future land use scenarios + habitat models = impact maps
SEVA Process
Relative vulnerabilities
of our species
to climate change
NatureServe’s
Climate Change Vulnerability
Assessment tool
next
Spatially Explicit
Vulnerability Analyses
(SEVA)
Future land-use scenarios
And
Habitat and modeling
Conceptual modelingAdded a spatial component
Potential adaptation strategies
And
Locations to implement
Conceptual Modeling
Adaptation Strategy Map
Obstacles & Lessons Learned
Good to have two methods
– Different assumptions/caveats
– Different data & uncertainties
– Comparison of results
Modeling changes in coastal areas is more difficult and time consuming
Models of vegetation change and succession under climate change is needed
Working with experts takes time but brings collaboration and buy-in
Adaptation Strategies1. Room to move strategies
• Fill data gaps on vegetational and species responses
• Habitat maintenance & improvement2. Competing with neighbors strategies
• Research effects of roads & other barriers, potential mitigation options• Work w/ private landowners to conserve landscape features
3. Surrounded on all sides strategies• Most difficult to address
Continue filling data gaps on species dynamics Actively manage available habitat to bolster populations Identify and conserve corridors
