Albania Security Study

Albania: Poised For Progress

Albanian nationalists re-‐used the double-‐headed eagle during the late 19th and early 20th centuries as a symbol of their campaign for their country's independence from the Ottoman Empire in (1912)

A Security Study Prepared By

Stephanie Morrison

Professor: Dr. Alexandra Luce November 18th, 2014

INTEL 510 –Mercyhurst University Applied Intelligence Studies

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Albania Security Study Table of Contents

Executive Summary – Overall Estimate................................................................3

• Figure (1) Map of Albania • Figure (2) Prevalence of Bribery

Intelligence Collection Plan (ICP)..........................................................................6

• ICP Chart Link Analysis – Geography ............................................................................... 11

• Link Chart (Figure 3) Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)..................................................12

• Figure (4) Albanian Uniformed Personnel in Peacekeeping Missions • Figure (5 & 6) IPB Imagery

Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH).............................................................17

• Figure (7) Trade Balance Graphic • Figure (8) ACH Hypotheses Inconsistencies

Contact Page ......................................................................................................... 22 Cover graphic source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Albania

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Albania Security Study Executive Summary: It is likely Albania will continue to increase its stability in the next 12 to 24 months. European Union accession (2009) and candidacy (2014) continue to be stabilizing factors that are affecting the country in positive ways. Political elections (2013) have swept back into power the Socialist party and their political will and efforts to reform all levels of government, economy and the environment are slow, but steadily improving. Albania’s recognition of Kosovo’s independence and statehood causes strained relations with Serbia creating tension in the Balkan region, but recent events are showing signs of change. Challenges limiting the country’s economic growth and foreign investment are a poor internal infrastructure. Poised for progress, Albania needs to minimize negative factors that hinder EU progression; with the two biggest being corruption and organized crime. Discussion: Albanian NATO membership granted in 2009 will strengthen NATO’s security presence and be a stabilizing force in an unstable region. NATO ascension is a sign of confidence in Albania’s political stability and popular opinion toward U.S. and European institutions. NATO ascension is widely seen as a milestone on the road to European Union (EU) membership – the most important step a country can take toward inclusion in the family of Europe’s stable, liberal democracies. Albania has made positive political and economic progress in recent years, but is at least 10 years away from full EU accession.1

Politically, Albania has made progress over the past year. Despite a tense political climate to the general elections in 2013, Albania continued its efforts on reforms in all areas under the key priorities. The function of Parliament improved. Transparency of the legislative process and involvement of civil society and interest groups increased. Government continued to reiterate its commitment to EU integration. 2 Albania took further steps towards the reform of the judiciary. The government has shown political will to act decisively in the prevention and fight against corruption. They strengthened the legislative framework, which improved policy coordination at a central level.

Figure 1: Map of Albania

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Relationships in the Balkan region are mending. Prime Ministers of Albania, Serbia and Kosovo met for the first time in 68 years marking a desire to work together to improve ties to advance in their bids to the EU.3 Albania and Serbia demonstrated their willingness to improve bilateral relations by taking steps towards improving the rights of their respective national minorities. The establishment of a regular air link between Belgrade and Tirana began in September. Albania and Kosovo signed a new declaration on cooperation and strategic partnership aiming to boost economic growth. Overall, Albania has continued to act as a constructive partner in the region, further developing bilateral relations with other enlargement countries and neighboring EU Member States. 4

Minimizing risks with corruption and organized crime are critical. Albania has managed to establish a strong legal base, which as recognized The Albanian Criminal Code covers all types of corrupt behavior (promising, offering or giving and requesting, receiving or accepting) and after the amendments made in 2004, which established a completely new system of corruption offences, meets the international standards.5 Awareness of corruption has increased and businesses rank corruption the second highest issue, after high taxes. The fight against organized crime shows a positive trend in a number of areas, with an intensification of law enforcement activities, notably on drug seizures and drug-‐related crimes, and on economic crime and trafficking of human beings. 6

Comments: This report has been created from large amounts of open resources used in this Executive summary and country stability study including economic, political, military, technology, and social websites, on-‐line news sources, in-‐country blogs, web-‐based and local newspaper articles, journals, scholarly databases, government websites, and research centers. Analyst expertise was low and worked alone; however, the analyst consulted numerous OSINT sources; used several structured analytic techniques, including ACH; received feedback on initial drafts; and had sufficient time to complete the task. This estimate product attempts to convey the stability of the Albanian government in many areas. Despite the numerous sources with high reliability and confidence, this estimate is not a complete analysis of every stabilizing or destabilizing factor for the nation.

Source Reliability: 9/10 Analytic Confidence: 8/10

Figure 2: Prevalence of Bribery

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1 http://www.cepa.org/content/issue-‐brief-‐no-‐102-‐albanias-‐nato-‐membership 2 http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2013/package/brochures/albania_2013.pdf 3 http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/10/us-‐serbia-‐albania-‐kosovo-‐idUSKCN0IU16W20141110 4 http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2014/20141008-‐albania-‐progress-‐report_en.pdf 5 http://www.againstcorruption.eu/uploads/norad/Albania.pdf 6 http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2014/20141008-‐albania-‐progress-‐report_en.pdf Graphic source: http://albaniantourism.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/how_to_get_to_albania.gif?w=269

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Intelligence Collection Plan (ICP) Plan -‐ Albania

ID Source Name

Type of Source

Intel Type Periodicity Purpose

Report w/in Last 5 Years Utility Title

Source Rel.

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Official Journal of the European Union Publication OSINT Frequent Economic Yes Useful

Legislation that covers organizations and project that receive public money 8

2 The New York Times

Online News Source OSINT Daily Economics Yes Useful

Daily current worldly events 8

3 The Library of Congress

Educational Institution OSINT As needed Economics Yes

Highly Useful

Database with resources on culture, re: Albania 9

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The Economist-‐Intelligence Unit

Online News Source OSINT As needed Economics Yes Useful

Albanian index featuring the latest news updates. Focus on politics and world affairs 8

5 Trading Economics

Online News Source OSINT As needed Economics Yes Useful

Albanian statistics, economics, historical charts 7

6 The Balkan Insight

Local newspaper/ source OSINT Daily Economics Yes Useful

Breaking news on the Balkan economy, politics, business, culture, art & entertainment 7

7 The World Bank

Research Center OSINT Frequent Economics Yes Useful

Country data on economics, government of Albania 9

8 Google Earth Other IMINT As needed Geography Yes Useful

Satellite imagery, geographic profile of Albania 8

9 CIA World Fact book

Gov't Website IMINT Frequent Geography Yes

Highly Useful CIA Facts on Albania 9

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National Geospatial Intelligence Agency

Gov't Website IMINT As needed Geography Yes

Highly Useful

Geographical database of downloadable country files featuring all aspects of topography 10

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The University of Texas-‐Austin

Educational Institution IMINT As needed Geography Yes Useful

CIA -‐ produced maps of Albania 8

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ID Source Name

Type of Source



Source Rel.

12 Interpol

Non-‐gov't org OSINT Daily Military Yes

Highly Useful

Interpol -‐ Albania's membership page, includes a running blog of the latest stories, focused on crime, military, terrorism, other security matters 10

13 Jane's Intelligence

Online News Source OSINT Frequent Military Yes

Highly Useful

Economic, Political, Military issues 10

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Stratfor Global Intelligence

Private Global Intelligence service OSINT As needed Military Yes Useful

Issues that affect Albania 9

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Ebsco Host of Mercyhurst Library

Educational Institution OSINT Frequent Military Yes

Highly Useful

The Military and its Role in Albania's Democratization. 10

16 European Union

Gov't Website OSINT Frequent Political Yes

Highly Useful

Europa is the official EU website. Provides info. On EU institutions, agencies and bodies. 9

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Center for Strategic & International Studies

Research Center OSINT As needed Politics Yes Useful

Albanian program page focusing on political, economic, security and world affairs 10

18 Balkanalysis

Indep News & Analysis OSINT Daily Politics Yes Useful

Produces local country briefings, articles, interviews 9

19 Rand

Research Center OSINT Frequent Politics Yes

Highly Useful

Politics, social, technology, military, international relations, economics, science, geography 10

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U.S. Department of State

Gov't Website OSINT Frequent Politics Yes

Highly Useful

Albanian -‐ home page 10

21 Reuters -‐ Albania

Online News Source OSINT As needed Politics Yes Useful

Albanian resource page 10

22 US Embassy -‐ Albania

Gov't Website OSINT Frequent Politics Yes

Highly Useful

Albanian -‐home page 10

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ID Source Name

Type of Source



Source Rel.

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Office of Prime Minister

Gov't Website -‐Albania OSINT Frequent Politics Yes

Highly Useful

Prime Minister’s website of Albania 9

24 Amnesty International

Online News Source OSINT As needed Social Yes Useful

Updates on human rights issues around the world 9

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US Citizenship and Immigration Services

Gov't Website OSINT As needed Social Yes Useful

Homeland Security: asylum and patronization resources for Albanian citizens seeking US citizenship 10

26 Google Alerts

Online News Source OSINT Frequent Social Yes

Highly Useful

Regular, world-‐wide alerts on Albania, politics, technology, international relations, economy 9

27 The Guardian

Newspaper -‐ online source OSINT Frequent Social Yes

Highly Useful

Albanian Bureau -‐ Government, political, social, military and international relations 8

28 Albanian Blogger Blog Post OSINT As needed Social Yes Useful

General information on regional social, cultural issues pertaining to Albania 8

29 Global Security.org

Online News Source OSINT Frequent Technology Yes

Highly Useful

Fact-‐based database of sources focusing on world security issues/reliable news & security information 10

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European Stability Initiative Think Tank OSINT Frequent Technology Yes

Highly Useful

A non-‐profit research and policy institute for South east Europe; Balkans 9

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Agency for Technology and Innovation (ARTI)

Gov't Website -‐Albania OSINT Frequent Technology Yes

Highly Useful

Albanian science, technology website 9

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United States Agency for International Development

Gov't Website OSINT Frequent Technology Yes

Highly Useful

Government agency responsible for foreign aid. Bilateral relations, Socioeconomic development 9

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Link Analysis -‐ Geography Executive Summary: It is likely that Albania will remain stable in the next 24 months. Albania’s geography plays a vital role it its overall national stability. A vast mix of rich minerals, natural resources and coastal access to international commerce gives promise, yet its lack of infrastructure to preserve and protect these resources are compromising national assets. Without national reforms and initiatives to mitigate natural and man-‐made hazards, risks of degradation to the environment remain. The Strait of Otranto is a key point linking the Adriatic and Ionian seas, with a route for tourism and commerce. Chances are about even that the strategic location of Albania and the Strait of Otranto could create a destabilizing gateway of organized crime and drug trafficking from Italy, Turkey into southern Europe. Discussion: Development of strategies and policy’s are making an impact on natural resources and reduction of man-‐made hazards. Degradation caused by land reclamation, mining and industrial pollution resources during the country’s post-‐communist transition era resulted in considerable damage to forests and pastures. High rates of reforestation were due to illegal logging, increased use of forests for fuel-‐wood, uncontrolled harvesting and overgrazing of forests and pastures, and poor forest management.1 Reforms and improvement have resulted in forestry, watershed, and agriculture and carbon sequestration measures in degraded lands through protection measures. Sustainable, community based natural resource management will lead to higher productivity, incomes and improvements in land and water resources for the public sector. 2 The World Bank is supporting forest and pasture management planning and investment in 240 Local Government Units (LGUs) through the National Resource Development Project (NRDP) to restore the forests and land of Albania.3 Air pollution, municipal solid waste management and access to clean water and improved sanitation remain the most pressing challenges for Albania according to the second Environmental Performance Review of Albania, performed by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). 4 Environmental and Coastal development are important aspects to tourism. Albania is participating in the Program of Work on Protected Areas (POWPA) and Coastal Zone Management, including a comprehensive ecological gap assessment for the protected area system and fostering a constructive policy environment to help preserve marine protected areas.5 Tourism in Albania has a relatively high potential.6 Development and pressure from tourism will grow (generated by domestic, as well as by international investors) it is important

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that both local and national authorities make efforts to safeguard the environmental potential of the coastal area to secure the environmental sound development of tourism and so guarantee long-‐term sustainable and the socio-‐economic security of the coastal population. The Balkan Route is a corridor for drug trafficking. Even though the quantity of drugs has come down in recent years, the Balkan route, through Albania is still one of the world’s main, important routes for smuggling drugs, especially heroin from Afghanistan. Large single seizures of heroin upstream and in destination markets suggest that while large shipments are moving through South-‐Eastern Europe, there appears to be less such actionable information in the region itself. This is an area of vulnerability in the context of disappearing internal borders resulting from European Union (EU) accession and accelerating regional integration. 7 Cocaine constitutes a small percentage of drugs trafficked through Albania and entering the country by land, seaports and airport. Cannabis grows easily in Albania in many areas, especially Fier, Vlora, and Shkodra Tropoja. 8 Comments: Analyst’s expertise was low; the complexity of the subject matter is high and the analyst worked alone. Sources collected came from a variety of open academic and news sources, including government websites, online databases, newspaper articles, Google Earth and institutional websites.

Source Reliability: 8/10

Analytic Confidence: 8/10

1 http://www.thegef.org/gef/content/natural-‐resources-‐development-‐albania-‐supporting-‐participatory-‐forest-‐management 2 http://www.un-‐foodsecurity.org/node/638 3 http://www.un-‐foodsecurity.org/node/638 4 http://bit.ly/1tblPrF 5 http://www.thegef.org/gef/node/3281 6 http://pastandpresent.al/en/coast 7 http://www.unodc.org/documents/data-‐and-‐analysis/Studies/Illicit_DT_through_SEE_REPORT_2014_web.pdf 8 http://www.academia.edu/5082774/DRUG_PRODUCTION_AND_TRAFFICKING_IN_ALBANIA

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Link Analysis Chart: Albania Geography

Figure 3: Link Analysis Chart of Albania

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Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) Analysis & Terrain Executive Summary: Joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 2009, Albania is highly likely to be stable in 24 months. Albania’s military doctrine is integrating towards the NATO model and regional cooperation among neighboring Balkan countries. The restructured military forces are focused on limited joint operations, humanitarian aid, rapid relief due to natural disasters and responsiveness to civil emergencies. Attack from an enemy would be unlikely with war risks low, mitigated by NATO membership, future prospects of joining the European Union (EU) and an alliance with the United States. Analysis of the terrain reveals several No-‐Go areas along the north, east and southern borders due to dense forest; lakes, rivers, and rugged mountainous ranges are significant obstacles to navigate operations for order of battle. The western coastline through the Strait of Otranto provides porous avenues of approach across mostly flat marshy plains. Discussion:

NATO membership provides long-‐term stability towards future European Union (EU) accession. Albania’s membership in NATO promises that the country will remain politically strong and secure from external attack and cements its efforts to attain prosperity in the end. 1 Since Albania joined NATO, its focus has been on developing military capabilities and institutional structures that would enable its participation in NATO-‐led military operations. This step of Albania’s integration into Euro-‐Atlantic structures constitutes one of the most important current national priorities for the country.2

Military forces operate with a new NATO western-‐style structure. With bilateral and multilateral assistance, the armed forces are transitioning to a smaller, voluntary, professional military.3 Albania worked with the international community to restructure its armed forces and strengthen democratic structures, including addressing military reforms, in its pursuit of NATO membership. Albania currently has 8,500 active defense personnel, including civilians, from which only 2,500 are ready for combat, while the other two thirds are executive and supporting staff. Albania spends less than 1.5% of its GDP on the defense budget. 4 A collective, regional, western Balkans approach aims to strengthen its defense reforms, strengthen military to military cooperation, and operations. Albania currently holds the presidency of The “Adriatic Chart” (A5) Euro-‐Atlantic integration of the region. This initiative is military cooperation between the countries, focused on exercises, joint training operations, and increasing of the capacity for airspace. The Ministry of Defense for Albania stressed that

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regional cooperation should focus on the concept of “Smart Defense” and use of joint defense assets in cases of emergencies. 5

Figure 4: Albanian Uniformed Personnel in Peacekeeping Operations

Albania’s contribution to peacekeeping is through NATO, the EU, and the UN, as well as joint coalitions with strategic partners. Albania’s participation to United Nations (UN) peacekeeping is a lower priority, and not Albania’s immediate security and foreign policy interest. 6

External threat to national security is low. Albania’s commitment to uphold NATO’s military standards is strong. In the event of attack, no Albanian defensive combat forces exist, but NATO having responsibility for security, supports Albanian air space. No military reserves exist. Internal security provides border protection, law and maritime counter-‐smuggling operations. 7

Albania’s geography provides natural defensive borders. Three sets of mountain ranges (Pindus, Korab, Northern Alps), bordering three countries, Greece, Kosovo and Montenegro, give a defensive border insulating Albania from attack. 8 Comments:

Sources consulted are highly reliable. The analysis and analytical confidence of the IPB are 8/10. The sources used were OSINT, but also came from Jane’s Intelligence, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Google Earth, and organizational websites focusing on military capabilities of foreign nations including Albania.


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1 http://www.ukessays.com/essays/politics/integration-‐of-‐nato-‐has-‐affected-‐albanian-‐economy-‐politics-‐essay.php -‐ ixzz3JMdW0dsL

2 http://www.providingforpeacekeeping.org/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/06/Albania-‐Visoka-‐12-‐June-‐2014-‐FINAL.pdf

3 http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/europe/al-‐budget.htm 4 http://www.providingforpeacekeeping.org/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/06/Albania-‐Visoka-‐12-‐June-‐2014-‐FINAL.pdf

5 http://www.mod.gov.al/eng/index.php/newsroom/122-‐defence-‐minister-‐kodheli-‐chairs-‐us-‐adriatic-‐charter-‐a5-‐ministerial-‐in-‐brussels

6 http://www.providingforpeacekeeping.org/wp-‐content/uploads/2014/06/Albania-‐Visoka-‐12-‐June-‐2014-‐FINAL.pdf

7 http://www.janes.com 8 http://www.jstor.org/stable/207419?seq=4

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Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)

Albanian Military Locations

Figure 5: Military Locations

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Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB)

Military Avenues of Approach to Albania

Figure 6: Military Avenues of Approach

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Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) Matrix Executive Summary: It is probable Albania will continue to be stable in the next 24 months. With accession into the European Union in 2009, major government reformations are having effects on economic factors, politics, military, technology, geography and environmental sectors. Without these directional changes, Albania’s environmental hazards and natural disasters pose significant risk to its natural resources, making up half its Gross Domestic product (GDP). Key internal threats to security remain because of corruption, organized crime, transnational drugs, trafficking, and weapons smuggling. Despite these issues, the country’s overall outlook is positive. Discussion:

Albania is making positive, developmental steps towards changing its governance. Albania’s foreign trade is liberal and opened its markets to global and foreign investment. Reforms in public administration advanced, with the Civil Service Law coming into effect. Strengthening the legislative framework and policy coordination improved monitoring at the central level.1 Albania joined the Word Trade Organization (WTO) in 2000. Since then, the Albanian economic growth has been one of the highest among the countries of the region coupled with a low inflation rate. GPD has grown by an average of 6% per year.

In 2013, Albania exported about 246 billion ALL of goods, with an increase of 15% from previous year. Even though exports have increased, the trade deficit has been deepening.2

Figure 7: Trade Balance 1993-‐2013

Albania is a disaster prone country and exposed to natural and man-‐made origins. Natural risks include geologic (earthquakes, rock falls and landslides); hydro-‐meteorological (flooding

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and torrential rains, droughts, snowstorms, high snowfall and windstorms); biophysical (forest fires and epidemics); and avalanches. Albania ranks 41st in the world in terms of vulnerability to landslides, 43rd in terms of earthquakes and 58th in terms of drought risks. The cost of damages has a negative impact on the macroeconomic situation of the country.3

Albania has environmental problems that include the deterioration of bio-‐diversity (deforestation and loss of flora and fauna); soil erosion; specific sectorial problems (water, air and land pollution); and the continued existence of high-‐risk areas (hot spots) with respect to environmental pollution. 4

Progress in Anti-‐corruption policies and fight against organized crime are developing. The Albanian authorities have strengthened the legal and institutional anti-‐corruption framework. An appointment of a National Anti-‐Corruption Coordinator and a network of anti-‐corruption focal points in all line ministries were established. The introduction of key legislation for State Police and Prosecution office covering training and the control of firearms is waiting for adoption. Police have conducted successful operations against narcotics, human trafficking, money laundering and seizures of explosives. 5 The PARC ACH software is an analyst tool used to demonstrate evidence of two competing hypothesis as “Consistent” or “Inconsistent” with the likelihood of Albania’s stability in the next 12 to 24 months. The graph below (Figure 8) depicts my ACH analysis, that Albania would be highly likely to remain stable based on the level of inconsistency than the opposing hypothesis.

Comments:

The analyst utilized the ACH tool, which does not produce analytic certainty, but does create a statistical measurement that helps the analysis process from human bias and mindset. Analyst expertise was low and OSINT was used; along with many sources to compile the evidence in the ACH matrices including newspaper articles, CIA World FactBook, Jane’s Intelligence, journal articles, government websites, academic, organizational, corporate and economic websites.


Figure 8: Inconsistencies of Hypotheses

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1 http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2014/20141008-‐albania-‐progress-‐report_en.pdf 2 http://www.academia.edu/8486551/International_Trade_of_Albania._Gravity_model 3http://www.gripweb.org/gripweb/sites/default/files/Albania%20DRR%20Cap%20Ass%20Report%20Hachim%20Final.pdf 4http://www.gripweb.org/gripweb/sites/default/files/Albania%20DRR%20Cap%20Ass%20Report%20Hachim%20Final.pdf 5http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/pdf/key_documents/2014/al_report_june_2014.pdf Graphic Source: http://www.academia.edu/8486551/International_Trade_of_Albania._Gravity_model

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Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) Matrix – Albania

Figure (9)

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Contact Information

Stephanie Morrison [email protected]

Albania Security Study

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