Alaska PPT Slides

Alaska Conservation Solutions2008

The Greatest ThreatThe Greatest Threat

“There is no doubt in my mind that climate change is one of the greatest threats facing humanity today.”

Markku Niskala Secretary-General of the Red Cross

January 2008

Photo © The Age, Melbourne. All rights reserved

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“Things are getting desperate enough now that we need to throw away our conservatism and just act.”

Dr. Terry Chapin, University of Alaska – Fairbanks

The Greatest ThreatThe Greatest Threat

Amanda Byrd/Canadian Ice Service

What do these pollutants do? – Global Fever

Greenhouse gases make the earth too hot, just like:

> sleeping under a heavy blanket in the summertime

> wearing a parka that is too thick

Our atmospheric “blanket” or “parka” is over 35% “thicker” than it used to be

Thicker blanket traps too

much heat.

Thinner blanket is “just right.”

Global Warming Basics

Weather vs. Climate

“Choosing shorts or long underwear on a particular day is about weather; the ratio of shorts to long underwear in the drawer is about climate.”

Charles Wohlforth ~ The Whale and the Supercomputer

20081950

Weather: The short-term state of the atmosphere -- up to a few days

Climate: Long-term averages, frequencies and extremes -- generally 3 to 5 decades

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Weather vs. Climate“Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.” Mark Twain

Anchorage, AKJanuary 18, 2009

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Alaska is Ground ZeroAlaska is Ground Zero

Chapman and Walsh, 2004

In past 50 years,

Alaska: Temperatures have increased

4oF overall (National Assessment Synthesis Team)

Worldwide: Temperatures have increased slightly more

than 1oF (IPCC, 2007)

Global Warming BasicsG

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Surface Air Temperature Trends 1942-2003

Chapman and Walsh, 2004

Temperature Change oC

1970-2004

-1.0 -0.2 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.5

Changes in physical and biological systems and surface temperature 1970-2004

IPCC, 2007

Future Temperatures in Alaska

Temperature Measurements

.

NASA 2008

Impact of La Nina in Last 12 Months

Ocean temperature models predict a warm 2008-2009 winter in Alaska

Snow and sea ice reflect 85-90% of sun’s energy

Ocean surface and dark soil reflect only

10-20%

The Albedo Effect

It’s like wearing a white shirt v. a black shirt

Why has Alaska warmed the most?Why has Alaska warmed the most?

Increased melting of snow

and sea ice

Increased melting of snow

and sea ice

More of sun’s heat energy is

absorbed

More of sun’s heat energy is

absorbed

More dark earthand ocean surface

is exposed

More dark earthand ocean surface

is exposedLand or water warms faster

Land or water warms faster

Global Warming BasicsG

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(ACIA, 2004)

Other Factors:

1) Albedo effect2) More energy goes directly into warming than into evaporation

3) Atmosphere layer is thinner in the Arctic

4) Increased heat transfer from oceans as sea ice retreats

5) Alterations in atmospheric and ocean circulationACIA Graphic

Why has Alaska warmed the most?Why has Alaska warmed the most?

Global Warming Basics

(ACIA 2004)

Temperature Measurements

.

NASA 2008

Impact of La Nina in Last 12 Months

Ocean temperature models predict a warm 2008-2009 winter in Alaska

http://kenai.fws.gov/overview/notebook/images/La%20Nina%20Apr%2028%202008%20Pacific%20view%20Jason%20satellite.jpg

1. Melting ice, glaciers and permafrost

2. Animals

3. Wetlands and forests

4. Weather and storms

5. People and culture

Impacts of Warming in AlaskaImpacts of Warming in Alaska

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Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photo

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sImpacts in Alaska

Impacts in Alaska1. Melting

Melting Sea IceMelting Sea Ice

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23% smaller than previous minimum; 39% smaller than average

Ice 50% thinner (D. A. Rothrock et al., 1999)

Ice only 3 feet thick in most locations (NOAA FAQ, 2007)

In September 2007 an area the size of Florida (69,000 square miles) melted in six days (NSIDC 2007)

Humpback whales spotted in Arctic Ocean for first time in 2007

Arctic Sea Ice Extent, 1978 - 2008

The Ice Cap in September


The Ice Cap in September


Sea Ice edge Sep. 16, 2007

September median ice edge

1979-2000

New minimum: 1.59 million square miles

(4.13 million square km)

Previous minimum: 2.05 million square miles

(2005)

Average minimum: 2.60 million square miles

(1979 – 2000)

1 million square miles is an area roughly the size of Alaska and Texas combined,

or ten United Kingdoms (NSIDC,

2007)

Melting Sea Ice: Sept. 2008Melting Sea Ice: Sept. 2008


NSIDC (2008)

Arctic sea ice extent reached annual low on September 12, 2008: The second-lowest level ever 33% less than average minimum from 1979-2000

Melting Sea IceMelting Sea IceImpacts in Alaska

1. Melting

Arctic winter ice 2008: Loss of older, thicker (12 – 15 ft) ice

Old ice (6+ years) has declined from over 20% to about 6%

Over 70% of ice is first-year

NSIDC (2008)


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Melting Sea IceMelting Sea IceThe Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by 2040.

(U.S National Center for Atmospheric Research 2006)

“Our research indicates that society can still minimize the impacts on Arctic ice.”

Dr. Marika Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research

2000 2040


The rapid retreat of Alaska’s glaciers represents 50% of the estimated mass loss by glaciers through 2004 worldwide (ACIA, 2004)

Loss of over 588 billion cubic yards from 1961 to 1998 (Climate Change, 11/05)

Alaska’s glaciers are responsible for at least 9% of the global sea level rise in the past century (ACIA, 2004)

Bering Glacier, representing more than 15% of all the ice in Alaska, is melting twice as fast as previously believed, releasing approximately 8 trillion gallons of water per year into the ocean -- or the equivalent of two Colorado Rivers (Michigan Tech Research Institute, 5/07)

19411941

20042004

USGS photo

Bruce Molnia photo

Glacial RetreatGlacial Retreat

20032003

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19581958

McCall Glacier


Glacial RetreatGlacial Retreat

Accelerated melting of glaciers and ice caps could add an additional 4 to 9.5 inches of sea level rise. (Science 7/07)

Alaska’s Columbia Glacier has decreased by approximately 9 miles since 1980 and thinned by as much as 1,300 feet.. (Science 7/07)

Permafrost ThawingPermafrost Thawing

“All the Observatories show a substantial warming during the last 20 years”, causing permafrost to melt at an unprecedented rate. (State of the Arctic 2006)


Damage to infrastructure, lakes, rivers, and forests

Rising sea levels Release of stored carbon

(methane and CO2)

Damage to infrastructure, lakes, rivers, and forests

Rising sea levels Release of stored carbon

(methane and CO2)

Consequences:

Vladimir Romanovsky photo

-6C

-8C

-10C 1980 1988 1996 2004

Soil Temperature at 20m DepthOsterkamp and Romanovsky

Deadhorse

West Dock

NSIDC

Osterkamp and Romanovsky

Deadhorse

West Dock

z

DE

PT

H

| | | | | | | |-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1oCTEMPERATURE

Soil Temperatures at Franklin Bluffs

0

1m

Average1987-2003

1987 2003

• Polar bears• Walruses• Ice seals• Black guillemots• Kittiwakes• Salmon• Caribou• Arctic grayling

Impacts in Alaska2. Animals

Animals at RiskAnimals at Risk

Rising temperatures

Shrinking habitat

Food harder to get

Expanding diseases

Competition

Polar bearsWalrusesIce seals

Caribou

Black guillemotsKittiwakesSalmon

Arctic grayling


Polar Bears in PerilPolar Bears in Peril

Numbers in western Hudson Bay have declined 22% in 17 years (U.S. Geological

Service & Canadian Wildlife Service, 2005)

87% on sea ice (1979-1991) vs. 33% on sea ice (1992-2004) (Monnett et al., 12/05)

Alaska polar bear drownings in 2004: 4 documented, 27 estimated total (U.S. Minerals Management Service, 2004)

Cannibalism in 2004 (Amstrup et al., 2006)

Photo © environmentaldefense.org. All rights reserved

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Polar Bear CannibalismPolar Bear CannibalismPhotos courtesy of Steven Amstrup, USGS


Amstrup et al., Polar Biology - accepted March 27, 2006 © Springer-Verlag 2006


Polar Bears in PerilPolar Bears in Peril Cubs perishing (61 cubs per

100 females between 1967-89; 25 cubs per 100 females between 1990-2006 ), smaller skulls and adult starvation (Regehr & Amstrup, 2006)

Shifting denning sites: 62% on ice (1985-94); 37% on ice (1998-2004) (Fischbach et al., 2007)

USGS predicts the extirpation of Alaska’s polar bears by 2050, with an overall elimination of two-thirds of the global population (USGS, 2007)

Secretary Kempthorne proposed listing the polar bear as threatened

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Impacts in Alaska2. AnimalsWalrus Warning

SignsWalrus Warning Signs

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Abandoned walrus calves: They were “swimming around us crying” (Aquatic Mammals 4/06)

Haulout on Land: Thousands of walruses on shore in Alaska in 2007; 40,000 in one haulout in Russia (AP 10/07)

Stampeding Deaths: 3,000 to 4,000 stampeding deaths in Russia in 2007

Other Concerns: More energy expended in foraging; depleted habitat; increased calf mortality

Photo © Viktor Nikiforov, WWF-Russia

Female walruses depend on sea ice over the continental shelf for feeding and nursing platforms

Photo: Corel Corp., Courtesy of www.exzooberance com

Brown BearsFactors of Concern:

Diet impairment: fish and berries (Kenai Brown Bears – fish 90% of diet vs. black bears 10%)

Hibernation disturbances for reproducing females (Jan-May) 2 months to implant Cub growth Flooding of dens (Sean Farley, ADF&G, 2007)

Reduction in productivity and survival rates


following salmon decline in Kuskokwim; additional research underway (Steve Kovach, FWS, 2007)

Caribou

The Western Arctic Caribou Herd

shrank by 113,000 (more than 20%)

between 2003 and 2007; mid-winter

warm spells may have played a role

(AP 5/08)

Since 1989, the Porcupine Caribou

Herd has declined at 3.5% per year

to a low of 123,000 animals

in 2001 (ACIA 2004) Freezing rain coats lichen

Changing rivers

Less tundra


Dall Sheep

Dall sheep live exclusively in alpine tundra

Due to warmer temperatures, the tree line in the Kenai Mountains has risen at a rate of about 1 meter/year over the past 50 years

20% of the tundra above 1,500 ft. has disappeared, is now shrub or open woodland (Refuge Notebook, 6/07)

“…we’re going to have declining Dall sheep. We’re losing their habitat.” Dr. John Morton - Kenai National Wildlife Refuge

Photo: Tim Craig, Wildlife Biologist BLM


Muskoxen Population in northern Alaska and

Canada declined from approximately 700 to 400 (Pat Reynolds, FWS, 2007)

Risk Factors:

• Icing events

• Lower calf production

• Deeper snow

• Not highly mobile

• Increase in disease (e.g. nematode

lungworm, able to complete life

cycle in 1 year v. 2 years) (Kutz et al., 2004)


Birds Threatened Birds ThreatenedImpacts in Alaska

2. Animals

Declines in Kittlitz’s Murrelet:

Prince William Sound: 97% from 1989 - 2001

Glacier Bay: 89% from 1991 - 2000

Kenai Peninsula:

83% since 1976 (BirdLife International, Kittlitz’s Murrelet Species Fact Sheet, 2006)

“ The fate of the Kittlitz’s Murrelet may hinge on

the fate of Alaska’s glaciers, and therefore

Kittlitz’s may be among the world’s first

avian species to succumb to the effects of

rising

Photo © 2004 Gary Luhm. All rights reserved.

Kittlitz’s Murrelet

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Subsistence observations: Birds flying higher, farther away Lakes and rivers too low Fewer birds seen

global temperatures.”

(John F. Piatt, USGS, and Kathy Kuletz, USFWS)

Alaska Waterfowl

Hatch dates have advanced 5 - 10 days since 1982 in all 5 species studied in Yukon Delta NWR

Sea-level rise, increased storm frequency and intensity, and wetland drying will likely cause dramatic changes in waterfowl communities Julien Fischer, Scientist, USFWS (2007)

Aleutian Cackling Geese White Front Goose on Nest Brandt Geese

Cackling Hatchlings


Waterfowl -- Scaup Population appears to be “in peril”

(Consensus Report, 2006)

Declined from over 7 million (in 1970s)

to 3.39 million (2005) (CR)

Record low in 2006: 3.2 million (Ducks Unlimited) 70% breed in western boreal forest;

Fastest rate of decline there (94,000 birds per year from 1978 - 2005) … “Declines reflect breeding season events.” (CR)

19% wetland loss in Yukon Flats (1985 - 89 v. 2001 - 03)

Where ponds lose 20% or more surface, scaup food sources decline (i.e. amphipods,


gastropods and chironomid larvae) (Corcoran et al., 2007)

AF

IP p

hoto

E.R

.Keeley photo

Protozoan parasite Icthyophonus never found in Yukon salmon before 1985

Today, up to 45% of the Yukon’s Chinook salmon are infected

(Kocan et al.,

2004)

Infection is causing: Wastage Reduced returns to spawning grounds Mortality

R. K

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pho

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Yukon Chinook DiseasedYukon Chinook Diseased


Yukon River: Water Temperature

Courtesy of Dr. R. Kocan

Photo: Armed Forces Institute of Pathology

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E.R. Keeley photo

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Temperatures in Kenai Peninsula streams now consistently exceed Alaska’s standard to protect salmon spawning areas (13o C/ 55o F)

Kenai Streams: Days Above Temperature Standard

Source: Cook Inlet Keeper, August 2007

Kenai Salmon Streams WarmingKenai Salmon Streams Warming


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Smaller Fry in Silted Skilak LakeSmaller Fry in Silted Skilak Lake


Glacial melt has increased silt in Skilak Lake (major rearing area for Kenai River sockeye)

Less light, plankton production and food for salmon fry

Fry in 2004 were about 50% smaller than average for the prior decade; fry in 2005 were 60% smaller (AK Department of Fish & Game, 2005)

Photo: NWS/APRFC, NOAA

Photo © Adams River Salmon Soc

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Impacts in Alaska2. AnimalsLow Pink Salmon

HarvestsLow Pink Salmon Harvests

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ADFG 2006 SE purse seine

Predicated: 52 million Actual: 11.6 million

Low number was due in “large part to the warmer temperatures of 2004, when the parents of this season’s mature fish would have been affected” (ADFG, 2006)

Exotic Species AppearingExotic Species AppearingImpacts in Alaska

2. Animals

“Squid, sharks and barracuda are among species newly arrived in Alaska waters.”

Seiners and troll fishermen have sighted sardines, anchovies, jumbo squid, sharks, barracuda and large concentrations of brilliantly hued open-ocean fish such as pomfret and opah.

Juneau Empire September 25, 2005

2005 GOA water temperatures were 2-3o higher than average.

Juneau Empire, 9/25/05

Photo courtesy of the D

eep Blue G

allery.

Photo © Ocean Research, Inc.

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Bering Sea Ecosystem Changing Bering Sea Ecosystem Changing


Gary Luhm

Change from arctic to subarctic conditions underway in the northern Bering Sea

Prey base for benthic-feeding gray whales, walrus, and sea ducks is declining

North Pacific Fisheries Management Council cut 2007 catch quotas for pollock by 6% due to fish migrating northward into cooler waters

Scientists predict 40% loss of Bering Sea Ice by 2050 (USGS, 2007) NOAA photo

Image: NASA Earth Observatory

Photo courtesy of J. Overland

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NOAA Photo

Wetlands and ForestsWetlands and ForestsImpacts in Alaska

3. Wetlands and Forests

Over the last 5 decades, in areas of the Kenai NWR:

(Klein, Berg and Dial, 2004)

8-14,000 year old sphagnum peat bogs are drying out and becoming shrub lands (Ed Berg, Kenai Nat. Wildlife Refuge)

USFWS photo courtesy of Ed Berg

USFWS photo

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Open areas decreased by 34%

Wet areas decreased by 88%

Water and lakes decreased by 14%

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Study Area % Decrease in

Number of Ponds% Decrease in Area of Ponds

Copper River BasinMinto Flats SGRInnoko Flats NWRYukon Flats NWR

54 %36 %30 %10 %

28 %25 %31 %18 %

Disappearance of Ponds since 1950’s (Riordan et al., 2006)

Disappearing & Shrinking Ponds

Impacts in Alaska3. Wetlands and Forests

Based on Inventory of 10,000 closed-basin ponds

In 1950, critical temperature threshold crossed (16o C/60o F); since then, growth has declined

Species could be eliminated from central Alaska by the end of this century (ACIA, 2004)

photo Barbara Logan © 2005. [email protected]

Forest Decline: White SpruceForest Decline: White Spruce


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Forest Decline: Black SpruceForest Decline: Black Spruce


The dominant tree in about 55% of Alaska’s boreal forest

Warming temperatures result in strongly reduced growth

Trees also disrupted by thawing ground

By 2100, predicted temperature scenarios would not allow black spruce to survive in Fairbanks area (ACIA,

2004)

USFS photo

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Forest Decline: Yellow CedarForest Decline: Yellow Cedar


- Warmer winters (premature dehardening in springtime)

- Reduced snow cover (less insulation)

A dramatic decline has affected over 500,000 acres of yellow cedar in SE Alaska.

The suspected cause is spring freezing injury, due to:

(Hennon/USFS 2004; Schaberg & Hennon 2005)

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Paul Hennon photo

Before 1990, spruce budworm was not able to reproduce in central Alaska

After warm summers in the 1990’s, large infestations of budworms have occurred

USDA Forest Service, Dave Powell photo

With increased warming, all white spruce in Alaska will be vulnerable to outbreaks.


Spruce Bud WormSpruce Bud Worm

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(ACIA, 2004)


Spruce Bark BeetleSpruce Bark Beetle

Cause: Warmer summers

One year life- cycles Warmer winters

No kill-off

Columbia University photo http://www.columbia.edu/~jas194

USFS photo

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The world’s largest outbreak of spruce bark beetle has infested approximately 4 million acres on the Kenai Peninsula(ACIA 2004)

6.6 million acres burned in 2004

4.6 million acres burned in 2005


Forest FiresForest Fires

Bureau of Land ManagementJohn McColgan photo

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Source: NOAA National Climate Data Center

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

mill

ion

s o

f a

cre

s

Alaska Acres Burned 1956-2005

Tundra Fires Impacts in Alaska

3. Wetlands and Forests

0

50

100

150

200

250

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Thou

sand

s of

Acr

es

*2007 fire still active as of 9/21/07

Reported thousands acres burned north of 68o latitude from 1950-2007 Alaska Fire Service, 2007

Anaktuvuk River Fire, 2007

North Slope Fire, 2004

Invasive Plant SpeciesInvasive Plant Species

Aggressive invader of wetlands, serious threat to habitat and species diversity

Requires warm temperatures for germination (15-20C) (ADFG)

“Northern limits of distribution may be strongly influenced by low growing season temperature.” (USFS)

Now seen for the first time in Alaska, along Chester Creek

EXAMPLE: Purple Loosestrife

WI D

ept N

atur

al R

esou

rces

Can

adia

n D

ept o

f Agr

icul

ture


Insect PestsInsect Pests

© Ralph Berry OSU

Canadian Ministry of Forests

European black slug

Woolly sawfly European slugs: New to

Alaska, now flourishing from Kenai to Interior

Aphids: Growth increases exponentially with temperature

Birch leaf roller, birch leaf miner, larch saw fly, aspen leaf miner (Glenn Juday, Professor of Forest Ecology, UAF)

Woolly sawfly: Longer growing season can allow two life cycles within one year

Warmer conditions can allow or worsen a variety of pest infestations:


Plants stressed by heat or drought are more susceptible (Michael Rasy, IPM, UAF Coop. Ext.)

Infrastructure and StormsInfrastructure and Storms

Impacts in Alaska4. Weather and Storms

September 2005:

Storm surges 9 ft, waves 15 ft.

34 communities affected.

Unalakleet lost 10-20 feet of beach.

Newtok lost 10 ft of beach and a 1000 gallon fuel tank.

Golovin homes were flooded for an unprecedented third year in a row. (Anchorage Daily News 9/28/05)

Kotzebue

Nome

Bethel

Golovin

Newtok

Unalakleet

Shishmaref, October 2002

Pho

to ©

Gar

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raas

ch

Golovin, September 23, 2005. photo courtesy of Toby Anungazuk, Jr.Glo

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InfrastructureInfrastructure Some shorelines have

retreated more than 1500 feet over past few decades. (National Assessment Synthesis Team)

Newtok lost 2-3 miles in 40 years.

In a single storm in 1997, Shishmaref lost 125 feet of beach.

184 communities are at risk from flooding and erosion (GAO estimate).

“Coastal villages are becoming more susceptible to flooding and erosion caused in part by rising temperature.”(GAO 2004) Shishmaref

photos courtesy of the Nome Nugget, from arctic.noaa.gov

2:32 PM

October 8, 2002

12:37 PM

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Tony W

eyiouanna, Sr. photo


InfrastructureInfrastructureArmy Corps of Engineers, April 2006 Report

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Costs of Future Erosion Protection

Cost to Relocate

How Long Does The Community Have

Kivalina 15,000,000 $ 95 – 125 million 10 – 15 years Newtok 90,000,000 $ 80 – 130 million 10 – 15 years Shishmaref 16,000,000 $100 – 200 million 10 – 15 yearsBethel $5,000,000 N/A > 100 years Dillingham 10,000,000 N/A > 100 years Kaktovik 40,000,000 $ 20 – 40 million > 100 years Unalakleet 30,000,000 N/A > 100 years

Infrastructure Impacts in Alaska

4. Weather and Storms

“A warming climate will damage Alaska’s infrastructure because it was designed for a cold climate.” (Larsen and Goldsmith Institute of Social and Economic Research 6/07)

- Damage to infrastructure may add $3.6 to $6.1 billion (10% to 20%) to future costs for public infrastructure from now to 2030 and $5.6 to $7.6 billion (10% to 12%) from now to 2080.

- Damage will be concentrated in areas of thawing permafrost, flooding, and eroding coastlines.

Alaska’s Arctic Coast USGS documented

that in the last 50 years, a section of the Alaska North Slope coastline has eroded by as much as 3,000 ft (0.9 KM).

(Geology 07/07)

Erosion rates for the area increased from .48 km2/year (1955-1985) 1.08 km2/year (1985-2005). (Geology 07/07)


National Security

Three North American Aerospace Defense Command early-warning radar sites in Alaska to be shut down due, in part, to erosion

caused by climate change; Point Lonely already closed

(New York Times,

12/07)

NORAD AK Region


The Northwest Passage

September 2008:

Northwest Passage &

Northern Sea Route

both open (less than

one-tenth surface ice) for

first time since satellite

observations began (US National Ice Center)

Canadian Internal Waters or International Straits?

Sept. 8, 2008

(NASA)

Maritime Jurisdiction & Boundaries

International Boundaries Research Unit, Durham Universitywww.durham.ac.uk/ibru

Staking Claims: The First Map (Aug. 2008)

Countries that control Arctic coastline:

United States

Canada

Russia

Norway

Denmark (Greenland)

Each allowed 200-mile economic zone beyond shoreline – or continental shelf, if geologically related

May 2008:

5 Arctic states agree that UN Commission will settle competing territorial claims

International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean (geology.com)

The Lomonosov Ridge

Potential claimants to North Pole ownership: Russia Canada Denmark (via Greenland)

July 2008 USGS estimate:

13% of undiscovered oil & 30% of undiscovered gas lie under Arctic seabed

Oil & gas recovery possible – But at what environmental & human costs?

No one owns the North Pole – Yet

Health Impacts

Health Impacts

Oyster contamination in summer of 2004 (New England Journal of Medicine, 2005)

Hazardous travel, hunting and fishing

Adverse dietary impacts

Beaver range expanding

Health damage from fires -- respiratory illnesses, especially in elderly, children

Water and sewer failures

First yellowjacket sting deaths in Fairbanks in 2006; 50% increase in sting-related emergencies (Dr. Jeffrey Demain, UAA)

South Fairbanks smoke, June 2004

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Alaska’s Uniqueness

Global warming threatens Alaska’s very soul and special quality of life

Impacts in Alaska5. Human Impacts

Race Cancelled 3 of last 8

years

Start Moved 6 of last 10 years

Subsistence ImpactsSubsistence Impacts


“…the Arctic is becoming an environment at risk… Sea ice is less stable, unusual weather patterns are occurring, vegetation cover is changing, and particular animals are no longer found in traditional hunting areas during specific seasons.

Local landscapes, seascapes, and icescapes are becoming unfamiliar, making people feel like

strangers in their own land.” (ACIA, 2004)

Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism

Photo © Alaska Division of TourismNOAA photoGlo

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People and CulturePeople and Culture

“Climate change is occurring faster than people can adapt. [It] is strongly affecting people in many communities, in some cases threatening their cultural survival.”(ACIA 2004)

Photo courtesy of Alaska Conservation Foundation

Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism Photo © Alaska Division of Tourism

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Indigenous PeoplesIndigenous Peoples

“For the Inuit, climate change is a matter of livelihood, food, health, and individual and cultural survival.”

“The erosion and potential destruction of our way of life brought about by climate change resulting from emission of greenhouse gases amounts to a violation of the fundamental human rights of Inuit.”

Sheila Watts-CloutierFormer Chair, Inuit Circumpolar Conference


Indigenous PeoplesIndigenous Peoples

“In no case may a people be deprived of its own means of subsistence.”

United Nations International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights


“Due to unusual ice conditions, one of our young local hunters lost his life, which has not

occurred in our community in my lifetime.” Fannie Weyiouanna, Shishmaref

“All of these villages have lost people on the ice. When you have a small village of 300 or 400 people, losing three or four of their senior hunters, it’s a big loss. A lot of the elders will no longer go out on the sea ice because their knowledge will not work anymore. What they’ve learned and passed on for 5,000 years is no longer functional.”

Will Steger Founder, globalwarming101.org

Pho

to: C

hristoph Lü

pkes, A

lfred W

egen

er Institute

Photo: Environment Canada


Human Impacts

If we fail to act, and CO2 keeps rising at the current rate, then a new modeling study predicts that:

If we do not Act: Worst Case

PredictedTemperature

Increase

Average temperatures in many parts of northern North America will rise more than 25oF by 2100.

Arctic tundra will decline from 8% to 1.8% of the world’s land area, and Alaska will lose almost all of its evergreen boreal forests.

Extinctions and profound disruptions will ensue.

_

_

_

_

_ +5

+10

+15

+20

+25oF

(Govindasamy and Caldeira, 2005)


Shishmaref & Elsewhere: We Must HelpShishmaref & Elsewhere: We Must Help

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eyio

uann

a, S

r.


Kelly Eningowuk photo


The Options:

Relocate entire village.

Pay villagers to disperse to Nome, Kotzebue, and Anchorage.

Do nothing.

The Options:

Relocate entire village.

Pay villagers to disperse to Nome, Kotzebue, and Anchorage.

Do nothing.

Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photos

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The “Do Nothing” OptionThe “Do Nothing” Option

Rob

ert P

usch

endo

rf

Adaptation1. Relocating Villages

“The no action option for Shishmaref is the annihilation of our community…”

“We are unique, and need to be valued as a national treasure by the people of the United States. We deserve the attention and help of the American people and the federal government.”

Edwin Weyiouanna, AFE 2006

Tony Weyiouanna, Sr. photos


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Shishmaref’s RequestShishmaref’s RequestAdaptation

1. Relocating Villages

“[We request that] Shishmaref be used as a Federal demonstration project with maximum flexibility to determine what changes need to be made to lower the cost and impact of relocation, identify a Federal champion, and facilitate agency coordination.”

“We are worth saving.”


Edwin Weyiouanna, AFE 2006

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InundationGlobal Cataclysmic Concerns

Inundation from Four Meter Sea Level Rise (or 1m rise + 3m storm surge)Weiss and Overpeck, 2006

Inundation InundationInundation from Four Meter Sea Level Rise (or 1m rise + 3m storm surge)

Weiss and Overpeck, 2006

Global Cataclysmic Concerns

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Courtesy of Peter Larsen, UAA

Alaska Highways and Communities Susceptible to Permafrost Melting

Map courtesy of Orson Smith

Adaptation: Other NeedsAdaptation: Other NeedsAdaptation

2. Infrastructure

Permafrost:-- continuous-- discontinuous-- sporadic-- <10%

Lands management

Fish and wildlife management

Water and waste management

Archaeology

Highway repair

Adaptation is needed in many other areas:

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n P

arki

nson

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US

FW

S p

hoto

AN

TH

C p

hoto

Adaptation: Not always possibleAdaptation: Not always possible

Adaptation3. Extinctions

Adaptation is critical but not sufficient.

If global warming emissions continue to increase, irreplaceable elements of our natural and cultural heritage will be lost forever.

ADCED

NM

ML

1. Conserve

2. Consume efficiently

3. Use renewables

4. Be involved

What We Can Do

Individual ActionsIndividual Actions

1. Conserve


3. Use renewables

4. Be involved

1. Conserve


3. Use renewables

4. Be involvedwww.alaskaconservationsolutions.com

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http://www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com/

Measuring Your Carbon Footprint

Major Carbon Contributors:

Electric consumption

Gas/heating oil consumption

Car and miles driven

Miles flown

ORV use

Average Alaskan Carbon Footprint = 24,000 pounds

www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com

What We Can Do

Making a Difference as an IndividualConservation Measures:

Walk, bike, ride public transit, or carpool

Make sure your tires are fully inflated and your car tuned up Lower your water heater and

home thermostats Don't preheat your oven Only run your dishwasher with

full loads Reduce your shower length and temperature Buy locally produced food—look

for the Alaska Grown Logo Unplug appliances not in use Turn off lights when leaving a room Use recycled paper Reuse or recycle as much as you can Cut down on consumerism

What We Can Do

Conservation: Three ExamplesUnplug Appliances Vampires! 43 billion kWH lost/year in U.S. Estimated savings =

1,000 lbs/year/person

Pump Up Tires 4 million gallon of gas wasted

daily in U.S. Extends life of tires by 25% Estimated savings =

1,000 lbs/year/person

Lower Thermostat 2 degrees OR 6 degrees for 8 hours/day Estimated savings =

2000 lbs/year/person

What We Can Do

Making a Difference as an Individual

Energy Efficiency Reduce your home’s heat and

energy loses Replace incandescent lights with fluorescents Replace your appliances with “energy star” rated appliances Buy a hybrid car

Renewables Install renewable energy systems:

wind, solar, geothermal, in-stream hydro

Use biofuels

Carbon Neutral Carbon offsets – Denali Green Tags

Be Heard!

What We Can Do

Energy Efficiency: Two Examples

Compact Fluorescents Four to six times

more efficient Estimated savings =

100 lbs/year for each bulb converted

Hybrid Cars Save money on fuel Tax credit Estimated savings =

5,600 lbs/year

What We Can Do

Photo ©

2002 Robert G

lenn Ketchum

Courtesy of A

laska Conservation F

oundation

SummarySummary

We are at ground zero.

We are the “Paul Revere” of global warming.

Alaska contributes in unique ways to the earth’s natural and cultural heritage, and this heritage is imperiled.

Our leaders matter.

If we do not act…..

Matters in the Global Warming CrisisMatters in the Global Warming Crisis

Why AlaskaWhy Alaska

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Thank YouThank You

Deborah L. WilliamsAlaska Conservation [email protected]

Deborah L. WilliamsAlaska Conservation [email protected]

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www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com

For further information:

Deborah L. WilliamsAlaska Conservation Solutions308 G Street, Suite 219Anchorage, AK [email protected](907) 929-9370www.alaskaconservationsolutions.com

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Presentation produced by Jennifer R. AllenAlaska Digital Graphics, Anchorage

Jennifer [email protected] (907) 360-2881PO Box 212806Anchorage, Alaska 99521

For technical assistance please contact:

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We thank the following scientists and researchers for generous provision of data and figures presented here, and for valuable discussions and other assistance:

Ed Berg Cook Inlet Keeper Paul Hennon Richard Kocan Peter Larsen Tom Osterkamp James Overland Jonathan Overpeck Vladimir Romanovsky Chris Rose Mark Willette Woods Hole Research Center

Scientific Contributors

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Photographic Contributors

Adams River Salmon Society http://www.salmonsociety.com/ Toby Anungazuk, Jr., Golovin Alaska Conservation Foundation http://www.akcf.org*Alaska Department of Community & Economic Development www.dced.state.ak.us/apl/home.cfm*Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation http://www.dec.state.ak.us/ Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium http://www.anthc.org/index.cfm Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004 http://www.amap.no/acia/*Armed Forces Institute of Pathology http://www.afip.org/vetpath/WSC/WSC95/95wsc18.htm Gary Braasch http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/*Bureau of Land Management http://www.nifc.gov/gallery/ Columbia University http://www.columbia.edu/~jas194 Deep Blue Dive Shop, Utila, Honduras http://www.deepblueutila.com/ Kelly Eningowuk, Shishmaref Environmental Defense http://www.environmentaldefense.org E.R. Keeley, University of British Columbia Robert Glenn Ketchum http://www.robertglennketchum.com/ Barbara Logan [email protected] Gary Luhm http://www.garyluhm.com/*NASA Earth Observatory http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/*National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration http://www.photolib.noaa.gov/

We gratefully acknowledge the photographs made available by:

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Photographic Contributors (cont.)

*National Snow and Ice Data Center http://nsidc.org/*National Weather Service Alaska Pacific River Forecast Center http://aprfc.arh.noaa.gov/ Ocean Research, Inc., Honolulu http://www.ocean-research.com/ Alan Parkinson, CDC Anchorage Public Health Agency of Canada http://www.westnilevirus.gc.ca Robert Puschendorf The 7 Summits http://7summits.com/ The Age, Melbourne. http://www.theage.com.au The Nome Nugget http://www.nomenugget.com*USDA Forest Service http://www.forestryimages.org/*US Fish and Wildlife Service http://www.fws.gov/*US Geological Survey http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/photos.asp Web Portal of Bangladesh http://www.ourbangla.com Tony Weyiouanna, Sr., Shishmaref Richard Wilson, Harvard University

Copyright and intellectual property rights for all photographs, graphics, figures and maps in this presentation are retained by their respective creators or owners as indicated. Please contact them directly for permission to use their property and/or guidelines on permitted usage. *Public domain source exceptions are asterisked.

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© 2006 Alaska Conservation Solutions. This presentation is the intellectual property of the author. Permission is granted for the presentation to be freely shared for non-commercial, educational purposes, provided that this copyright statement appears and notice is given that the copying is by permission of the author. To disseminate otherwise or to republish requires written permission of the author. Please contact the author if you plan to deliver the presentation orally to a public audience.

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