Alan Avidan

www.BeesAndPollen.com December 2013

Social Gambling and Gaming Summit – Las Vegas, Dec. 2013

Gaining the Edge through Predictive Personalization -- Leveraging User Data to Raise KPIs --

Alan Avidan, PhD CEO, Bees & Pollen [email protected]

Data is knowledge…

Knowledge is Money.


Predictive Personalization

Social* + Behavioral + Session User Data

User DNA Generation

Correlate & Predict Best User Choices

Option A

Option B

Option C

Option D

* Social data contains customer experience, preferences, and trends information Algorithms include Genetic, Artificial Intelligence, Decision Trees, Regression


Predictive Personalization

©2013 Bees and Pollen LTD

Example: CTA Share Element – 3 Options

Option 2 Option 1 (Default) Option 3

Bingo by Ryzing

Element = Decision Point

CTR= Conversion


KPIs Monetization

• Revenue

• Profit

• ARPU/ARPPU

• %PAY

Retention

• DAU/MAU

• D1, D2, D7, D30

• Visits/DAU

• Churn Rate

Engagement

• Abandon Rate

• Session Time

• Drop-off Rates

Virality

• K-Factor

• Invites/DAU

• Acceptance Rate

Acquisition

• CPA, CPI

• Abandon Rate

Traffic

• DAU/WAU/MAU

• # Concurrent


Raising KPIs ≡ Raising Profit

• Requires: Increasing LTV and/or Lowering UAC

• Requires: Raising Conversions at Key Game Elements

• Requires: More Attractive Choices at Decision Points


More Attractive Choices ?

• The Problem: Players Have Different Choice Preferences

• The Solution: Predict Each User’s Preference at Each Decision Point, and Dynamically Adapt the Page

• The Technology: Real-Time Predictive Personalization


MAX (Profit)

Profit = (LTV – UAC – Opex)

Basics 101

LTV = Lifetime Value UAC = User Acquisition Costs Opex = Operating Expenses


1. In-Game • Session Time • Spend Rate (or ARPPU) • # of Concurrent Users (or DAU) • %Pay

• Predict Payers → VIP Treatment • Predict Non-Payers → Alt. Monetization

Increase LTV KPIs


2. Off-Game • Dx Retention

• Target Higher LTV User Profiles

(Example: Males, 40 and up, from North America, College, interested in Travel and Cars)

Increase LTV KPIs


1. In-Game: • Amplify Virality Retention Loop 2. Off-Game: • Target Higher Viral-Active User Profiles

(Example: female, 25-40, interested in books and music, with over 99 friends)

Decrease Acquisition Costs


Monetization - Payment Page

Sloto

lotto


Engagement – Button Colors O

pti

on

1

Op

tio

n 3

Op

tio

n 2

O

pti

on

4


Send Gifts: Friends Appearance


Payout (PARS Table)

Do Not Try This on RMG!


Open Graph: Story Variations

Option 1

Competitive

Option 2

Achiever

Option 3

Social

Conversion = Friends clicking the link to get into the game


Predictive Personalization Drives KPI Lift


Deep New Insights


Gain the Edge Raise Profit by Predicting and Affecting Player Behavior via

Real-Time Predictive Personalization

Please Don’t Leave Money on the Table!


Thank You: [email protected]

Predicting Players™

mailto:[email protected]

Alan Avidan

Business

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