Alameda County Budget Workgroup Forum (February 2011)

County Administrator’s Office

ALAMEDA COUNTYEconomic and Budget Forum

The Worst Is Yet to ComeFebruary 2011Supervisor Keith Carson,Chair,Budget WorkgroupS per isor Wilma ChanSupervisor Wilma ChanSupervisor Scott HaggertySusan S Muranishi County AdministratorSusan S. Muranishi, County Administrator


Overview

Economic UpdateFY 10‐11 Final BudgetgState and Federal Budgets

2


Unemployment Rate – 1990 to PresentUnemployment Rate 1990 to Present(not seasonally adjusted)


Unemployment Rate – 1990 to Present Unemployment Rate 1990 to Present (not seasonally adjusted)


Alameda County Unemployment y p yby City/ Unincorporated Area

18%

15.6%16.3%

14%

16%

10%

12%

4.7%

7.8%

6%

8%

4%

6


Alameda County Median Home ValuesAlameda County Median Home ValuesJuly 2007 – Dec. 2010

650 000619,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

400 000

450,000

500,000

347,000 300,000

350,000

400,000

280,000

200,000

250,000

7


Alameda CountyAlameda CountyProperty Foreclosures

9,000

7,000

8,000

,

4 000

5,000

6,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

0

1,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

8

Source: Alameda County Clerk/Recorder’s Office

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


Assessment Roll Percent ChangeAssessment Roll—Percent ChangeAlameda County

18%

12%

14%

16%

8%

10%

12%

2%

4%

6%

‐2%

0%

2%

9

‐4%


Sales Tax Revenues15,000,000

14,000,000

13,000,000

12,000,000

11,000,000

1010,000,000

2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11


Prop. 172 Sales Tax Revenues$125 000 000

$120,000,000

$125,000,000

$115,000,000

$105,000,000

$110,000,000

$100,000,000

11$95,000,000

2002‐03 2003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11


Measure A Revenues—County Share

$30 000 000$30,000,000

$28,000,000

$26,000,000

$24,000,000

12$22,000,0002005‐2006 2006‐2007 2007‐2008 2008‐2009 2009‐2010 2010‐2011


Realignment Revenues210,000,000

200,000,000

190,000,000

180,000,000

170,000,000

13

160,000,0002003‐04 2004‐05 2005‐06 2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11


Quarterly Interest Rate for Quarterly Interest Rate for Investment Pool

6%

5.0%

5%

3%

4%

1%

2%

0.5%

0%

1%

14


Increased Demand for Services

Dramatic increase in caseloads for assistance programs, including:CalWORKsFood StampsMedi‐CalIHSSIHSS

15


CalWORKS

21 00020,494

20,000

20,500

21,000

18,500

19,000

19,500

17,500

18,000

16,52016,000

16,500

17,000

16


Medi-Cal85,000

80,625

80,000

75,000

70,000

60,96860,000

65,000

17


Food Stamps

43,50040,435

38,500

,

28,500

33,500

18,500

23,500

8,5698,500

13,500

18


General Assistance

11 000

9 000

10,000

11,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

6,240

5,000

6,000

,

3,622

3,000

4,000

19


InHome Support Services18,45019,000

17,000

18,000

15,000

16,000

12 000

13,000

14,000

12,237

10,000

11,000

12,000

20


Economic OutlookVery slow recoveryUnemployment still highUnemployment still highHome values way off peakDemand for services highDemand for services highRevenues down

21


FY 2010 2011 Fi l B dFY 2010‐2011 Final Budget

22


ERAF Losses by Year (in millions)ERAF Losses by Year (in millions)Cumulative loss: $4 Billion

$350 $335

$300

$350

$263$273

$297$320

$335 $326 $320

$200

$250

$158$170

$187$206

$220$236

$100

$150 $129 $130 $135$140 $147

$158

$0

$50 $30

24


F di G Si ERAF I t t Funding Gaps Since ERAF Intercept (in millions)

25


Al d C P T Di ib iAlameda County Property Tax DistributionOf Each Dollar of Property Tax Collected:

26


FY 2010‐11 Final Budget

Appropriation/ Revenue

F.T.E. Positions*Revenue Positions*

All Funds $2.4 Billion 9,103

General/Grants/Measure A Fund

$2.1 Billion 7,287

27*Full‐time equivalent positions


FY 2010‐11 Final BudgetFY 2010 11 Final Budget General/Grant/Measure A FundsAppropriation by Program

General Government

10%Capital Projects

1%Health Care Services27%

Public Assistance32%

Non Program Expenditures

3%

Contingency & Reserves2%

Public Protection25%

Total Appropriation: $2.1 billion 28


FY 2010‐11 Final BudgetFY 2010 11 Final BudgetGeneral/Grant/Measure A FundsAppropriation by Major Object

Salaries & Benefits39%Other Charges

21%

Other Financing Uses

4%21%

Fixed Assets1%

Services & Supplies35%

Total Appropriation: $2.1 billion 29


FY 2010‐11 Final BudgetFY 2010 11 Final BudgetGeneral/Grant/Measure A FundsTotal Financing by Source

Current Property Tax14%

Other Financing Sources6%

Other Taxes8%

State/Federal/Local Govt. Aid54%Charges for Services

15%

Other Revenue3%

Total Financing: $2.1 billion 30


FY 2010‐11 Discretionary Revenue Share of Total General Fund

Discretionary Revenue26%

U f FMR

EPSDT Designation

1%

Capital Designation

0%Use of FMR

3%

Debt Service Revenue2%Program Revenue

68%

31Total General Fund: $1.9 billion


FY 2010‐11 Discretionary Revenue by Source

Vehicle License Fee (ERAF)30%Other Revenue

8%

Interest on Investments

1%

Sales & Use Tax2%Sales & Use Tax

(ERAF)1%

Property Tax58%

Discretionary Revenue: $502.7 million 32


FY 2010‐11 Use of Discretionary Revenueby Program

General Government

10% Debt Service5%Public Assistance

13%

Capital Projects1%

13%

Health Care17%

Contingency &

Public Protection45%

Contingency & Reserve Increase

9%

Discretionary Revenue: $502.7 million 33


FY 2010‐11 Balancing StrategiesFY 2010 11 Balancing Strategies(in millions)

Fiscal Mgmt. Reward40%

Countywide Strategies11% 40%

EPSDTProgram

Reductions/ EPSDT Designation

8%

/Revenue41%

Funding Gap: $152.4 million

34EPSDT = Early Periodic Screening, Diagnosis and Treatment Program


FY 2010‐11 ‐ Closing the GapFY 2010 11 Closing the GapOngoing vs. One‐Time Strategies

35


Closing the Gap General/Grant/Measure A Funds($ in millions)

Net County Cost

ReductionFTE

ReductionsReduction Reductions

General Government $22.7 16.9

Health Care Services $40.4 6.8$

Public Assistance $30.1 +2.0

Public Protection $42.8 83.9Public Protection $42.8 83.9

Programs $136.0 105.6

Countywide Strategies $16.4 0.0Countywide Strategies $16.4 0.0

Grand Total $152.4 105.6


F d l B d U dFederal Budget Update

37


President’s FY 2011 and 2012 BudgetsFY 2011

$3.8 trillion plan proposed, not approvedH C $100 billi l i hiHouse Cmte proposes $100 billion cuts, largest in history

FY 2012FY 2012 $3.7 trillion budget proposed$1.1 trillion discretionary spending$ y p gOver 200 programs to be cut or eliminated

38


Federal Budget UpdateAnnual Deficits

2009: $1.4 trillion2010 $1 3 t illi2010: $1.3 trillion 2011: $1.6 trillion2012: $1 1 trillion2012: $1.1 trillion

National Debt % GDP2008: $6 trillion 40%2010: $9 trillion 62%2021 $18 illi ( ) 77%2021: $18 trillion (est.) 77%

39


S B d U dState Budget Update

40


Governor’s Budget

$26.4 billion in solutions through 2011‐12Cuts $12.5 billionRevenues $12 billionBorrowing/transfers $1.9 billiong/

Realignment of servicesgSpecial election to extend tax increases

41


Governor’s Budget Governor s Budget Impact to AC Social Services Programs

CalWORKS (20,500 AC recipients) 13% grant reduction ($18M cut to AC clients)48 h l ($24 i 4 000 f ili )48‐month time limit ($24M impact to 4,000 families)Maintain block grant cut (ongoing AC loss $15M)Single Allocation reduction (AC impact: $8M)

Child CareEliminate child care for 11‐12 yr. olds (approx. 370 children)Eliminate child care for 11 12 yr. olds (approx. 370 children)Decrease eligibility standards from 75% to 60% State median incomeSubsidies cut ($40M impact to AC clients)

42


Governor’s Budget Governor s Budget Impact to AC Social Services Programs (cont.)

In Home Support Services (18,000 in AC)Cut provider hours 8.4%C d h d l (14 400 )Cut domestic services in shared living environments (14,400 cases)AC Impact: Hours of service reduced 28% (6 million hours), wage loss to IHSS providers: $71 million.

SSI/SSP Grants (39,000 AC recipients; $7M impact)THP+ reduced allocation (AC: $1.6M; 70 beds)S i l E i ll Di b d f di dSeriously, Emotionally Disturbed funding restoredSuspend County Share of Child Support collections (AC: $0.6M)

43


Governor’s Budget Governor s Budget Impact to AC Health Programs

Medi‐Cal (up to 100,000 AC recipients affected)Caps on doctor visits, prescriptions, other servicesCo‐paymentsCaps on supplies, equipment, hearing aids, OTC drugsEliminate Adult Day Health Care (880 people in AC)y ( p p )10% reduction in provider paymentsUse First Five funds for children svcs (7,200 AC children impacted)

Healthy Families (est. 20,400 AC families)Increase premiums, co‐payments, cut vision benefit

44


Governor’s Budget Governor s Budget Other

Eliminate redevelopment agencies AC impact: $18M/yearReenactment of gas tax swap to fund transportation Suspend, defer, repeal state mandates AC impact: $11M

45


Governor’s BudgetGovernor s BudgetRealignment Phase 1

Transfer low‐level offenders, parole violatorsTransfer Adult paroleTransfer remaining juvenile justice programsTransfer Court security to County sheriffs

f d dVLF‐funded programs:COPS, JJCPA, Juvenile Probation, Booking Fees, CalMMEt, other

Transfer fire protection and medical response in wildlandTransfer fire protection and medical response in wildlandareas

46


G ’ B dGovernor’s BudgetRealignment Phase 1 (cont.)

Mental health services, using Prop. 63 fundsSubstance abuse programsChild W lf S i /F CChild Welfare Services/Foster CareAdult Protective Services

47


G ’ B d Governor’s Budget –Realignment Phase 2

IHSS StateCA Children’s Services StateCalWORKs CountiesCalWORKs CountiesChild Care CountiesFood Stamps CountiesFood Stamps Counties

48


RealignmentRealignmentAlameda County General Principles

Constitutional protection that realigned programs will come with adequate funding to cover costs

Need all or some combination of the following:Guaranteed funding sourceGuaranteed funding sourceGeneral Fund “backstop”Maximum local control/flexibilityAbility to suspend, curtail or eliminate programs if funding is insufficient

49


State Budget

What if ballot initiati es fail?What if ballot initiatives fail?

50


Legislative Analyst:Legislative Analyst: Possible Cuts If Voters Reject Taxes

SchoolsEliminate K-3 class size reductionKindergarteners must be 5 years oldKindergarteners must be 5 years old

Community Colleges90-unit cap on subsidized creditsIncrease fees from $26/unit to $66/unitCut State subsidy for athletics

UniversitiesUniversitiesTuition: +7% UC, +10% CSUPersonnel costs: -10% UC, -5% CSU

51



Health/Human ServicesReduce IHSS wage to minimum $300MCut food and aid for noncitizens $190MCut food and aid for noncitizens $190MStricter income eligibility for welfare-to-work recipients $180M

Public SafetyRequire 2nd, 3rd strikes be serious or violent $50MEliminate public safety grants $506MAutomated speed enforcement cameras $150Mp $Two furloughs/month for court employees $130M

52



General GovernmentReduce State employee pay 9.4% $700MReduce State employee health care 30% $330MReduce State employee health care 30% $330M

TransportationAnother accounting swap $400MOil drilling at Tranquillon Ridge $100MNew fee on residential property owners in wildlands $300M

53


Alameda CountyAlameda CountyOngoing Budget Policies

Continue to monitor expenditures and revenuesRestrict spendingp gPursue revenue enhancementsAgencies & Departments directed to fill onlyAgencies & Departments directed to fill only critical (life/safety, mandated, cost effective) positionsp

54


Pending Factors

EconomyRetirement/medical costsFederal budget and debtState Budget and June electionPropositions

55


Key dates

Budget Requests Due February 18, 2011Early Budget Work Sessions April 5, 2011Funding Gap identified Late March/early AprilReduction plans May 2011

d d S b d l 2011Proposed Budget Submitted Early June 2011Final Budget Adopted Late June 2011

56


Alameda CountyAlameda CountyBudget Information on the Web

www acgov org/budget htmwww.acgov.org/budget.htm

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ALAMEDA COUNTYEconomic and Budget Forum

The Worst Is Yet to ComeFebruary 2011Supervisor Keith Carson, Chair,Budget WorkgroupS per isor Wilma ChanSupervisor Wilma ChanSupervisor Scott HaggertySusan S Muranishi County AdministratorSusan S. Muranishi, County Administrator

Alameda County Budget Workgroup Forum (February 2011)

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