Alaa Alhamwi, David Kleinhans, Stefan Weitemeyer, Thomas Vogt3rd European Energy Conference - E2C 2013October 29th, 2013

Optimal Mix of Renewable Power Generation in the MENA Region as Basis for an Efficient Electricity Supply to Europe

2

Background

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Source: (Fraunhofer and Dii, 2012)

15% of the European electricity needs can be provided by solar electricity imports from MENA (DLR, 2009) “A well balanced mix of renewable energies can replace electricity from fossil fuels” (MED-CSP, 2005)

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Background

Motivation» Renewables have fluctuating and dynamic behaviour storage needs

What is the optimal mix of renewables in Morocco? @ the minimum required storage

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Outline

Background

Country Profile

Methodology

» Scenarios definition

» Optimal mix analysis

» Storage model

Optimal mix results

Discussion

Conclusion

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Country Profile

Morocco as a case study» Electricity demand growth rate 7-8 % per year» Technical supply potentials of renewables

» Grid interconnection with Spain and Algeria» Data availability and accessibility» National Energy Strategy

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CSP (TWh/year) Wind (TWh/year)

Morocco 20.151 1.188

Spain 1.646 226

Source: DLR, 2005

33 millions inhabitants (2012)25 TWh electricity consumption (2010)

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Country Profile

Electricity mix in Morocco

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Source: RCREEE Renewable Energy Country Profile - Morocco, 2013

2012 Wind Solar Hydro Total RE Total

Installed capacity MW 340 35 1745 2120 6723

2020 Wind Solar Hydro Total RE Total

Installed capacity MW 2000 2000 2000 6000 14500

Wind14%

Solar14%

Hydro14%

Fossil59%

Targeted Installed Capacity- 2020

Wind5% Solar

1%

Hydro26%

Fossil68%

Current Installed Capacity- 2012

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Country Profile

Load curve in Morocco

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Morocco Load curve for 365 days in 2010(hourly resolution)

Morocco Load curve for the first week in 2010 (hourly resolution)

Load

[MW

]

Load

[MW

]

Year‘s hours [h]Year‘s hours [h]

Source: The National Electricity Company of Morocco ONEE, 2012

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Country Profile

Load curve» Two peak periods per day

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 242000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

4000

Load

[MW

]

averaged daily load in 2010Day [Hours]

Source: The National Electricity Company of Morocco ONEE, 2012

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Outline

Background

Country Profile

Methodology

» Scenarios definition

» Optimal mix analysis

» Storage model

Optimal mix results

Discussion

Conclusion

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Methodology

Analytical Approach

Modelling of 3 scenarios Discussion of results

Electricity power output

Solar electricity output Wind electricity outputData collection

Meteorological Data Load curve Data

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Methodology

Scenarios definitions for the energy mix by 2020:

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Winda

Solar b

Hydroc

Fossilf

Share of renewables

Scenario 1 6.1% 5.9% 8% 80% 20%

Scenario 2 Optimal mix of technologies 80% a+b+c=20%

Scenario 3 Optimal mix of technologies ------- a+b+c=100%

Capacity factors are: 21% for wind, 20% for solar (own calculation) and 28% for hydropower, 60% fossils (COMELEC, 2010)

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Methodology

Optimal mix model: » Mismatch energy (Heide et al. 2010):

γ: Excess generation factor a: Fraction of the load is covered by wind

• a+ b+ c+ f= 1 W(t): total wind power generation during time t <W>: average wind power generation Assumption: Fossil and hydropower are time independent

• h(t)=<h> and F(t)=<F> Based on the maximum potential of Hydropower in Morocco (5 TWh/year), h is

limited to 8.3% by 2020 (MED-CSP,2005)

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1;L

L(t)

F

F(t)f

h

h(t)c

S

S(t)b

W

W(t)aγΔ(t)

Source: Seasonal optimal mix of wind and solar power in a future, highly renewable Europe, Heide et.al 2010

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Methodology

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1;L

L(t)fc

S

S(t)b

W

W(t)a*γΔ(t)

1Δ(t)

1Δ(t) Excess generation

Deficit generation

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Methodology

Mismatch energy is a key to determine the storage needs » Storage model

H(t): total storage during time t

EH : required storage

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0)()(

0)()()1()(

1

tift

tifttHtH

in

out

)H(t'

tt'minH(t)

t'max

HE

Required storage

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Outline

Background

Country Profile

Methodology

» Scenarios definition

» Optimal mix analysis

» Storage model

Optimal mix results

Discussion

Conclusion

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Results and Findings

Optimal mix of renewables for the National Energy Strategy in Morocco

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Required storage

Scenario 2@ γ=1.1 and 90% storage efficiencies

a= 9.2%, b= 5.8% and h= 5% Storage

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Results and Findings

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Capacity factors are: 21% for wind, 20% for solar (own calculation) and 28% for hydropower, 60% for fossils (COMELEC, 2010)

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 36.1% 9.2%

34.0%5.9% 5.8%

58.0%

8.0% 5.0%

8%

80% 80%

Electricity Mix Scenarios% share of energy

Wind Solar Hydro Fossil

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Results and Findings

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Scenario 3 Optimal mix% energy

Energy Generated TWh

Installed Capacity GW

Wind 34 % 20 11

Solar 58 % 35 20

Hydro 8 % 5 2

Total 100 % 60 33

Based on the share of energy generations, the required installed capacity of each renewable power technology can be calculated

Capacity factors are: 21% for wind, 20% for solar (own calculation) and 28% for hydropower, 60% for fossils (COMELEC, 2010)

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Outline

Background

Country Profile

Methodology

» Scenarios definition

» Optimal mix analysis

» Storage model

Optimal mix results

Discussion

Conclusion

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Discussion

Summary of optimal mix results

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Wind20%

Solar13%

Hydro8%

Fossil58%

(Scenario 2)Optimal mix with fossil% of installed capacity

Wind14%

Solar14%

Hydro14%

Fossil59%

(Scenario 1)Moroccan Strategy

% of installed capacity

Wind34%

Solar60%

Hydro6%

(Scenario 3)100% Renewables optimal

mix% of installed capacity

Capacity factors are: 21% for wind, 20% for solar (own calculation) and 28% for hydropower, 60% for fossils (COMELEC, 2010)

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

Required Storage av.h.l 61 56 278

Total installed capacity GW 15 15 33

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Discussion

Optimal mix of renewables for the National Energy Strategy in Morocco

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a= 9.2%, b= 5.8% and h= 5%Storage

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Outline

Background

Country Profile

Methodology

» Scenarios definition

» Optimal mix analysis

» Storage model

Optimal mix results

Discussion

Conclusion

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Conclusion

Energy transition implies multiple challenges of various dimensions

Meteorological planning for designing a renewables National Energy Strategy is important because:» Renewables are highly dependent on weather conditions» In order to estimate the required pack up capacities » To minimize the needs for storage and balancing energies

… for the future analyses» Analyses of long term data» Integration of cost as a driving force» Implantation of specific renewable technologies in the model, e.g. CSP

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Thank you for your attention!

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