Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 4-1-Syria-25- Hizbullah

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 4-1-Syria-25- Hizbullah

With Isis at the gates of the ancient Roman city, Assad is growing increasingly reliant on external support, whether in the form of Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Iraqi Shia militias, or most evidently, Hezbollah. For Hezbollah, the prospect of seeing the Assad regime fracture – and with it the nexus with Iran that has handed it such power and influencein Lebanon – would be too damaging to countenance. To that extent, the group will throw every effort into halting the advance of the Takfiris. For many Lebanese Sunnis, the prospect of Assad’s demise, and the diminution of Hezbollah’s influence on the body politic cannot come soon enough. But if the price of this “victory” is the sight of Jihadists storming the gates of Damascus, it will be a hollow one for most Lebanese and Syrians alike.Isis’ surprisingly rapid routing of pro-regime militias in the eastern desert city of Palmyra has raised for the first time the serious prospect of the demise of the Assad regime, or at least its pinning back into core heartland areas where it can rely on external protagonists to lend it mission-critical support.The most prominent of these non-Syrian props is Hezbollah, the powerful, but stretched, Lebanese Shia militia-come-political party.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah

Dec 10, The secretary general of the Lebanese resistance movement has promised imminent victory for Syrian government forces in the city of Aleppo. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has said the only option for Syria and the resistance movement is safeguarding the region as well as the Islamic civilization against Takfiri threats. Hezbollah fighters have been helping the Syrian army to liberate Aleppo.Hezbollah has played an effective role in foiling plots hatched by the West and its allies to destroy Syria through terrorism, activist and political commentator from London Shabbir Hassanally told Press TV on Friday night.

“Hezbollah has of course given many martyrs to protect Syria and Hezbollah has been very instrumental, even before Russia got involved into equation," he said."It was Hezbollah and the Syrian Arab Army that were defeating Jabhat al-Nusra and all of these other factions that were all supported by Israel,” he added. Hassanally said without Hezbollah, Syria would have been in a very different place right now."It wouldn’t be about to be liberated and the thing is Hezbollah provides the inspiration and the Zionists cannot stand that,” he said. “The resistance bloc has been really the last bastion of defense against this Takfiri threat and we call it a Takfiri threat but actually it’s a Zionist-manufactured and paid for out of London and Washington and Paris.”The use of Takfiri threat has been a strategy by the West and the Zionism to try to break Syria up into small parts and "to remove one of the key elements in the resistance chain,” he noted.

Dec 7, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman acknowledged that Israel was responsible for recent attacks in Syria, saying on Wednesday that they were meant to prevent “advanced weapons, military equipment and weapons of mass destruction” from reaching Hezbollah

Hassan Nasrallah has pledged his forces' support for the Assad regime

1The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent of 10

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Isis’ surprisingly rapid routing of pro-regime militias in the eastern desert city of Palmyra has raised for the first time the serious prospect of the demise of the Assad regime, or at least its pinning back into core heartland areas where it can rely on external protagonists to lend it mission-critical support.The most prominent of these non-Syrian props is Hezbollah, the powerful, but stretched, Lebanese Shia militia-come-political party.Its strategists are in a quandary, as they observe the steady unravelling of the significant gains made by their Syrian ally over the last couple of years.Hezbollah did much of the heavy lifting that helped secure Homs from rebel hands two years ago. It has also sacrificed numerous fighters in a battle that – ostensibly at least – is not of immediate relevance to a Lebanese-based group.Its decision to throw its weight behind Assad was therefore not taken lightly. But in the cold calculus of its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the consequences of seeing a vengeful Sunni-majority take the reins of power in Damascus would be too dangerous.At the expense of much of its regional goodwill, it pitched in to save a tarnished regime. And that effort persists, even as the hated Isis “takfiri” extremists seize ground vacated by a tired and fractured army.Ever the most media-savvy of Islamists, in mid-May Hezbollah took Western journalists a whistle-stop tour of the mountainous Qalamoun terrain in Syria that it had clawed back from a patchwork of Jihadis.“If the Lebanese state accepts the occupation of its territories and approves that armed groups attack its army … then the Lebanese people will not accept that. The people will assume their responsibilities if the state fails to act,” Nasrallah said.With Isis at the gates of the ancient Roman city, Assad is growing increasingly reliant on external support, whether in the form of Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Iraqi Shia militias, or most evidently, Hezbollah. Without the Shia group’s experience, prowess and sheer manpower, it is scarcely likely that the Assad it could have survived thus far. It was Hezbollah that in June 2013 secured the strategic battle for Qusair, which secured a passage of territory running from Damascusthrough Homs.Informed parties are gloomy about Bashar’s prospects. In the view of a spokesman of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), quoted in an Israeli daily, “Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s ability to protect the Syrian regime has dramatically declined, making the Israeli military command more cautious of a sudden fall of the Syrian regime which will let battle-hardened jihadist groups rule near the Israeli border”.

Hezbollah’s deepening involvement in Syria is one of the most important factors of the conflict in 2013 and 2014. Since the beginning of 2013, Hezbollah fighters have operated openly and in significant numbers across the border alongside their Syrian and Iraqi counterparts. They have enabled the regime to regain control of rebel-held areas in central Syria and have improved the effectiveness of pro-regime forces. The impact of Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria has been felt not just on the battlefield, where the regime now has momentum in many areas, but also in Lebanon where growing sectarian tensions have undermined security and stability. This paper details Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria from the beginning of the conflict to the present. Much of the focus is on 2013, when Hezbollah publicly acknowledge its presence in Syria and deepened its commitment on the ground. The first part of the paper explores the relationship between Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria and Hezbollah’s rationale for its involvement in Syria. The second part looks at Hezbollah’s activities in Syria from 2011 to 2012, when it operated on a limited and clandestine basis. The third section of the paper details Hezbollah’s escalation of its presence in 2013


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and examines the group’s role in operations across Syria since the beginning of 2013. The fourth part analyzes the size, scope, and structure of Hezbollah’s operations in Syria. Finally, the paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of Hezbollah’s growing presence in Syria within Lebanon, Syria, and more broadly. Background: The Axis of Resistance

The Axis of Resistance is an Iran-led alliance of state and non-state actors in the Middle East that seeks to confront Western interests in the region, namely those of the United States and Israel. Historically, this alliance has included the Assad regime in Syria and Lebanese Hezbollah. In recent years, Iran has also cultivated Iraqi Shi’a militants as the newest members of this alliance. Aside from shared regional objectives, another pillar of the axis is shared support. Iran provides extensive material, financial, training, and logistical assistance to its regional partners. For example, Iran has supplied Hezbollah with as much as $200 million each year. After Hezbollah’s 2006 war with Israel, Iran and Syria rearmed Hezbollah with vastly expanded and more sophisticated weaponry. Much of this support has flowed through Syria, making it the primary hub in Iran’s power projection in the Levant. The war in Syria presents a significant, even existential, threat to this strategic alliance by endangering one of its primary members and the chief conduit for Iranian support to Hezbollah. At the same time,

Iran cannot afford to lose its most important foothold in the Levant, and Hezbollah cannot risk losing its access to critical Iranian and Syrian support. Maintaining the Axis of resistance is also a matter of great ideological importance for Iran and its commitment to exporting its Islamic revolutionary principles. For all of these reasons, Iran will go to great lengths to preserve its foothold in Syria.

November 14, 2016 Special Dispatch No.6677Hizbullah Military Parade In Syrian Town Of Al-Qusayr: Tanks, Cannon, And Machine Guns

On November 13, 2016, Hizbullah marked its annual Martyr Day by holding its first military parade in a Syrian town. The parade was held in Al-Qusayr, which Hizbullah took over in 2013 following a long and bloody battle with rebel forces, and which since then has become the main symbol of the organization's involvement in the Syria war alongside the Assad regime.[1]Reports on the parade and photos from it were posted on Hizbullah-affiliated websites and social media. According to the reports, several hundred fighters in uniform marched in the parade, and tanks, armored vehicles, machine guns and other weapons were displayed. The Lebanese website nn-lb.com reported that the parade involved fighters from newly-formed Hizbullah brigades that are part of the Armored Division, as well as infantrymen from the organization's intervention force who are fighting in Syria and form the spearhead of Hizbullah's army. Hashem Safi Al-Din, chairman of Hizbullah's executive committee, attended the parade and spoke at it on behalf of the organization's secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah, who is also considered to be the organization's military commander-in-chief. Safi Al-Din addressed various military and political matters


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related to Syria.[2]It should be noted that Al-Qusayr is considered to be strategic for Hizbullah due to its location close to the northern Beqaa Valley, which is one of Hizbullah's strongholds in Lebanon. Reports indicate that, since it was taken from the rebels in 2013, Hizbullah has emptied the town of its residents and has turned it into a headquarters and a gathering place from which its fighters

set out across Syria. Hizbullah also sees the Al-Qusayr area as an important buffer zone preventing Salafi-jihadi fighters from crossing into Lebanon.Mazen Ibrahim, Beirut bureau chief for Al-Jazeera, speculated that the parade was intended to convey a number of messages to various elements involved in the Syria crisis, both in Lebanon and elsewhere in the region and the world. Hizbullah, he wrote, meant to convey that it is no longer waging a gang war but was a large army fighting across international borders, a partner of the Syrian regime not only in fighting but in making decisions, and a major player that must be taken into account in any solution to the Syrian crisis.[3]It should also be noted that the Syrian opposition website Orient News reported, citing "exclusive sources," that the parade included M113 tanks belonging to the Lebanese army, and that these tanks may have ended up in Hizbullah's possession as part of a corrupt deal between Lebanese army commanders and Hizbullah. The sources added that, if these facts are true, they will cause Lebanon to lose its foreign military aid.[4]The following is a sampling of photos from the parade.Photos Posted November 13, 2016 On The Hizbullah-Affiliated Website Arabipress.org Photos Posted November 13, 2016 On The News Site Nn-lb.com Photos Published November 14, 2016 By Lebanese Newspaper Al-Diyar

Endnotes: [1] Hizbullah websites that reported on the parade stressed the significance of holding it in Al-Qusayr, due to the town's status as a military and security symbol for the organization, and also due to the fact that the Al-Qusayr area was the gateway through which Hizbullah's forces first entered Syria at the beginning of their involvement in the war. See arabipress.org, November 13, 2016.[2] Nn-lb.com, alhadathnews.net, arabipress.org, November 13, 2016[3] Al-Jazeera.net, November 14, 2016.[4] Arabipress.net, November 13, 2016.

Regards Cees***Surveying the conflict in Syria over the last 6-plus years, it’s not hard to find losing parties in the wreckage.

Thousands of innocent children, civilians, doctors, first responders, and journalists fill casualty lists — non-combatant collateral damage. The Syrian Arab Army can’t credibly claim to have “won,” either, as both ISIS and non-ISIS rebel groups are still trying to bring down its regime.


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And ISIS itself — belatedly — appears to be losing ground, in no small part thanks to the direct intervention of Russia and Iran.But one group, Hezbollah, is reaping significant tangible benefits from fighting in Syria. Not that they haven’t been been bloodied. The group has lost an estimated 1,500 fighters since 2011, with more than three times that wounded.That’s not a small number considering its total force is under 50,000 men, less than half in regular service. Some estimates suggest as many as 10,000 Hezbollah fighters have been deployed to Syria.But Hezbollah’s blood sacrifice for the Assad regime has been compensated for in other ways.Predictably, the Iran deal was a boon for the group. Even Secretary of State Kerry publicly admitted that part of the financial windfall from the Iran deal would likely make its way to "terrorist groups" (a thinly veiled reference to Hezbollah) via the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.And though there hasn’t been much open source reporting on how Hezbollah has benefited from monies related to the Iran deal, we do know that the Iranian government increased its most recent defense budget by 90 percent compared to the previous year.Since Hezbollah may have been receiving as much as $200 million a year from Tehran, and in view of the Islamic Republic’s expectations of Hezbollah’s commitment in Syria, it’s not a stretch to assume that the group has received more money, even if it doesn’t get a larger share of the pie.Moreover, the Iran deal also de-listed a vast swath of Tehran’s covert procurement network. Much of this was developed to acquire prohibited dual-use items for Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.Other parts of it, though, such as cargo ships connected to the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, were also used to ferry weapons and materiel to Hezbollah via Syria. The Iran deal effectively legalized this hitherto illegal network.Also as part of the deal, the European Union and the U.K. recently lifted sanctions on Bank Saderat, long known by U.S. intelligence and sanctioned for transferring money on behalf of Tehran to Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other nefarious organizations.Hezbollah is also using new weaponry in Syria. Since the end of its 2006 war with Israel, Iran and Syria had begun to improve Hezbollah’s war fighting capability.The Israeli newspaper Haaretz produced a report in July illustrating Hezbollah’s transformation from an organized but under-resourced terror group into a proper army; this augmentation took place partly before the group’s involvement in Syria.But a Washington Institute report also assessed that Hezbollah fighters’ access to more advanced Russian surface-to-air and rocket systems in Syria could help them in future conflicts.And Israel’s interceptions of several shipments of guided missiles, advanced anti-aircraft systems and anti-ship cruise missiles in recent years suggest that the group will have the capacity to use these systems in future engagements.Furthermore, Syria is providing current combat experience for Hezbollah, whose last large-scale military engagement was a decade ago.In the intervening years, older fighters have retired and newer ones have joined up. Without the Syrian civil war, many of these new fighters would still be green and untested when the next (inevitable) war with the Jewish State occurs.In a candid moment, a Hezbollah special forces commander recently admitted to VOA that, “in some

ways, Syria is a dress rehearsal for our next war with Israel.”The new cadre of fighters Hezbollah is bringing in is also professionalizing what was previously an explicitly guerrilla-oriented organization. The fight for Syria against the nominally Sunni “Takfiri” (apostate) ISIS,


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has been a gift to the Shia Hezbollah, spurring recruitment efforts. Put simply, Hezbollah is not just getting better at fighting, its army is also getting bigger.Finally, the political fallout from the Obama administration’s often aloof posture toward Arab allies such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has encouraged Iran and Hezbollah to consolidate political power in Beirut.Earlier this year, Saudi Arabia announced it would suspend $3 billion in military aid to Lebanon, a move widely interpreted as an exasperated admission by Riyadh that Lebanon was now mostly controlled by Hezbollah.Previously Hezbollah had acted as a “state within” the Lebanese state, controlling the Israel-facing Southern portion of the country. With the recent election of Michel Aoun as president, however, Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanese democratic institutions is strengthening. Though a Maronite Christian, Aoun has nevertheless been an ally of Hezbollah since at least its 2006 war.While Israel’s Defense Forces are still vastly superior to Hezbollah in terms of both numbers and training, Hezbollah’s rise certainly won’t be welcomed in Jerusalem.Israel might be assured of winning the next war, but Hezbollah is in a better position than ever to inflict civilian casualties, raising the stakes on both sides.The "Party of God" has reaped rewards as a result of its engagement in Syria, making it more dangerous and promising that Hezbollah will remain a concern for policymakers in both Israel and the United States for years to come.

Marc C. Johnson is a consultant and former CIA Operations Officer who has worked extensively on Iran and WMD-proliferation issues.

The recent attention-grabbing exchange of fire between Israel and Islamic State is just one aspect of the Jewish state’s assessment of the current threats at its northern border with Syria.Israeli forces killed four fighters from the Islamic State-affiliated Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade Nov. 27 after the terrorists had fired at Israel Defense Forces (IDF) soldiers in the Golan Heights border region. The exchange drew significant attention because it was the

first report of an Islamic State attack on Israel from Syria.Islamic State has previously threatened Israel, but until now the terror group did not appear to open such a front at the Israel-Syria border. Yet despite the numerous news headlines that followed the Islamic State attack, the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade does not have nearly as large of a footprint in the region as Hezbollah or its patron, Iran, which have been increasing their presence in Syria to back President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in that country’s civil war.The IDF estimates that about 120,000 Hezbollah rockets are aimed at Israel. Hezbollah has a full-blown army with around 45,000 members, 21,000 of whom are regularly in service, Haaretz reported in July. By contrast, the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade has between 600 and 1,000 fighters, according to a report in The Economist in January. The report quoted Israeli officers as calling the brigades “Daesh lite,” using an alternative name for Islamic State.

Hezbollah leader Hassan NasrallahGiven that Hezbollah’s forces amount to a far greater security threat to Israel, the Islamic State attack may have been no more than an effort by the jihadist group to distract from its losses in Syria and Iraq.Israeli Deputy Regional Cooperation Minister Ayoub Kara (Likud) told JNS.org that three groups—the al-Qaeda linked Nusra Front, the Western-backed Free Syrian Army, and Islamic State—are


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struggling for control of the area near Israel’s border. These groups “sometimes fight each other,” Kara said. Three enemies of Israel—the Syrian army, Hezbollah, and Iran—are on the other side of Syria’s civil war, he noted. Besides the rebel group led by Syrian opposition leader Kamal al-Labwani, “all of these groups in the area are against us,” said Kara.“Islamic State is trying to get close to our border to attack in order to gain popularity,” asserted the deputy minister. But he added, “Islamic State, Assad, Hezbollah, and Iran have no interest right now in getting Israel involved.”Syrian rebel leader Labwani told JNS.org that there is “chaos” on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights.“We need to create one authority,” said the rebel activist, who has many sources on the ground in the area.Speaking from Sweden, Labwani claimed that Hezbollah could have been behind the Nov. 27 attack rather than Islamic State. Hezbollah is paying rebels to carry out attacks on Israel, he claimed. Israel’s Kara, however, maintained that Islamic State carried out the recent attack.Labwani, who snuck out of Syria in 2012 and who has visited Israel, has supported the implementation of a safe zone that buffers Israel’s border with Syria, though he admits that such a move would need to be approved by the U.S. and/or Russia.Asked how the southern Syrian region is fairing from Israel’s perspective, Labwani responded that the situation is manageable, but that the Jewish state should be more proactive in bringing about the safe zone.Mendi Safadi, an Israeli Druze political activist who has traveled in the region and met with leaders of Syria’s opposition, said the Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade was responsible for the Nov. 27 attack and that the brigade is comprised of Syrian Palestinians.“Yarmouk is not a typical Islamic State group, but has taken advantage of the popularity of Islamic State in order to raise funds,” said Safadi, adding that this represents another example of the radicalization of Islamist groups.He added, “Yarmouk’s abilities are limited compared to the core Islamic State [organization], but they presumably will continue operations against Israel unless Israel launches pre-emptive strikes.”Moti Kahana, an American-Israeli businessman and founder of the American Jewish NGO Amaliah, which delivers humanitarian supplies to Syrian civilians, said that because of the humanitarian crisis in the southern province of Quneitra bordering Israel, the Nusra Front and Islamic State have sought to provide aid to win the hearts and minds of the Syrian population.Amaliah is the only organization delivering aid to Syrians from the Golan Heights in coordination with the IDF. Syrian women and children are also being brought into Israel for medical treatment. Kahana said his group is stepping up funding for aid because “if we don’t bring humanitarian supplies to the area, radicals will fill the vacuum.” He worries that if President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration stops U.S. support for Syrian rebels, Islamist-supporting Qatar would step in, emboldening the Islamist nature of the Syrian opposition.Indeed, Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani told Reuters last month that if the U.S. cuts funding for the rebels, Qatar’s support for rebels “is going to continue, we are not going to stop it.”Kahana is a Democrat who explained that for the past four years, he tried to get the Obama administration to implement safe zones in Syria, but got no support. Now, Kahana is optimistic about the Trump administration’s Syria policy because Trump himself has voiced support for safe zones.“The Trump administration does not want Syrians coming to America, but for them to stay in their country,” Kahana told JNS.org. “And the only way to do this is by creating safe zones.”By Ariel Ben Solomon


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Regards Cees***Hezbollah vs. ISIS. vs. Israel

by Jonathan SpyerThe Jerusalem PostDecember 12, 2016 Two incidents in recent weeks showcase the complexity of the challenges facing Israel on its northern front.In the first, an air strike killed four members of the Islamic State-affiliated Khalid Ibn al-Walid Army after a patrol of the Golani reconnaissance unit in the southern Golan Heights was targeted by the organization. Israeli aircraft then targeted a facility used by the group in the Wadi Sirhan area.In the second incident, according to regional media reports, Israeli aircraft operating from Lebanese airspace fired Popeye missiles at targets in the Sabboura area, 8 km. northwest of Damascus.There were no casualties, according to SANA, the official Syrian news agency.London-based Arabic newspaper Rai al-Youm reported that the Israeli strike was targeting a Hezbollah-bound weapons convoy. The paper also reported that Israeli aircraft carried out a second strike on a facility of Syria's 4th Armored Division, near Damascus.Israel neither confirmed nor denied the second incident. But on a number of occasions over the last four years of war in Syria, Israel has used its ability to operate in the skies over Syria to prevent weapons transfers to Hezbollah in Lebanon from the Syrian regime. It is possible that this incident was the latest act in this effort.

A brutal Khalid Ibn al-Walid Army execution earlier this year.

These two events are of tactical importance only. Neither is likely at this stage to lead to broader engagements, but they reflect a reality in which some of the world's most powerful non-state military organizations are deployed close to Israel's border with Syria, making war against one another while planning and organizing for a future war against the Jewish state.The Khalid Ibn al-Walid Army is a franchise of the Islamic State. It was formed from the merger of two Salafi organizations operating in southern Syria – the Shuhada al-Yarmuk group and the Muthanna organization. The group controls an area of the border east of the Golan Heights, from south of the town of Tasil, down to Syria's border with Jordan.From this area, Khalid Ibn al-Walid is conducting a war against the Syrian rebels to its north. It does


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not fight the forces of the Syrian government because they are not deployed in its immediate vicinity.Israel has long eyed the Islamic State-affiliate with particular suspicion, expecting that sooner or later a clash would be inevitable. This week it came.The volume of the Israeli response was clearly intended to reestablish deterrence against the Sunni jihadis, with the hope that it will cause them to think again before engaging with Israeli forces.Islamic State is facing battle for survival in its main domains farther north and in Iraq and it is unlikely to be in a position to contemplate opening a front against a newer and more powerful enemy farther south.The non-Islamic State rebels who control the rest of the border, with the exception of a small regime-controlled part at the northern edge near Beit Jinn, are of lesser concern to Israel. Indeed, a relationship of tolerance and cooperation exists between Israel and elements among those rebels.Israel's main concern, rather, is the Iran/Assad/Hezbollah side. The reported strikes in the Damascus area, if they took place, were the latest incidents in a limited Israeli campaign against these elements intended to produce two outcomes: first, to limit the transfer of complex weapons systems to Hezbollah, and second, to keep the Iran-supported militia and its allies from replacing the rebels along the borderline.As of now, it is difficult to assess the extent of the success of the first objective.Hezbollah is known to now possess advanced SA-22 anti-aircraft missiles and Yakhont anti-ship missiles. So, as might be expected, it appears that the sporadic Israeli efforts have not succeeded in sealing the Lebanese-Syrian border from efforts by the Assad regime and Iran to supply their ally to the west.Regarding the border, however, as of now, it remains almost entirely out of government hands, reflecting greater Israeli success.

Nevertheless, Israeli planners are carefully observing events farther north. President Bashar Assad's regime, with Russian help, is set to reconquer the northern city of Aleppo. This will represent the greatest setback for the rebels since 2012. Once the reconquest of eastern Aleppo is completed, regime forces will hope to move against remaining areas of rebel control in Idlib Governorate.If they succeed also there, then eventually the southern front will come back on to the agenda. At this point, the Israeli concern will be that similar methods to those that helped the regime to prevail elsewhere will be used here too. The Russian entry into the Syrian arena has tilted the balance for the regime and complicated the picture from Israel's point of view. It is Russian air power that is enabling the regime to advance in the north. If employed in the south, it can be expected to eventually produce similar results.It is probable that Israel will be quietly lobbying Moscow to take account of Israel's security needs on the border when contemplating action in the south. The Russians are not hostile to Israel, but will act according to how they perceive their own interests. Their decision as to whether to allow Assad to reconquer the southwest of his country – and by so doing to allow Iran and Hezbollah to reach the border with Israel – will be decisive.Of course, even in the worst case scenario in which they decide to allow this, the task facing Israel on the border will not fundamentally change. It will mean that instead of needing to deter hostile but relatively weak Sunni jihadi forces from contemplating action against the hated Zionists, Israel will need to deter hostile and less weak Shi'ite jihadis with the same intentions.Iran/Hezbollah and Islamic State agree about relatively little, but on the goal of destroying Israel and returning Jerusalem to Islamic rule they are entirely in consensus.Israel, naturally, prefers the weaker, non-state enemy in close proximity to the stronger. The events of this week show that it is engaged in a tacit, ongoing, unstated and limited war against both.


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Jonathan Spyer, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, is director of the Rubin Center for Research in International Affairs and author of The Transforming Fire: The Rise of the Israel-Islamist Conflict (Continuum, 2011).


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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 4-1-Syria-25- Hizbullah

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