Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of...

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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-138-Caliphate- The State of al-Qaeda-30

"You - the Caliph of Islam, ISIS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi - spill blood and attack the Muslim people in order to rule," Zawihiri said in his fourth recorded lecture released as part of his "Islamic Spring" lessons. He added that, "Baghdadi's Caliphate is a Caliphate of explosions, damage and destruction." "Pledging allegiance by force, which some spiritual leaders have allowed, is not our way," he said. Zawihiri claimed that "Baghdadi doesn't not rule over us. There are Mujahadin that control wider territories than ISIS," he said. The al-Qaida chief said that "the choosing of a Caliph can be done solely with the agreement of the Muslim people. Expropriating power forcefully and by the sword is a crime against Islamic doctrine." "The true Caliphate of Islam is in Afghanistan, under the leadership of Mullah Muhammad Omar." Last month as well, Zawihiri declared that he "does not recognize Baghdadi's claim to be Caliph," the Islamic State’s so-called “caliphate,” arguing that it is not based on the “prophetic method 1” and is therefore illegitimate. Zawahiri says that one of the most important features of the “prophetic method” is arbitration according to sharia law.The al Qaeda leader says the jihadists must “strengthen” the “units” that already exist and are “headed” by “the Emir of the Faithful,” Mullah Muhammad Omar.

Although This segment shows how dated Zawahiri’s talk is, as the Taliban announced Omar’s death in late July, the key here is: Zawahiri cites a variety of Islamic texts, including hadiths, to emphasize his point that Muslims must be consulted before a caliph accepts their pledges of fealty. Neither the person who gives his allegiance “without consulting the other Muslims,” nor the man “to whom the pledge of allegiance was given” should be “supported, lest they both should be killed,” Zawahiri says, citing one text 2.

With All Eyes On ISIS, Al-Qaida Quietly Rebuilds; They're letting, strategically, ISIS take all the heat, galvanize everyone's attention and they are, meanwhile, replenishing their ranks, growing and, I would argue, husbanding their resources for what they see as the next phase of the struggle. And with Hamza bin Laden, you have the best possible brand you could imagine. You have supposedly bin Laden's chosen heir. The bottom line is that al-Qaida has just always had a much deeper bench than we've ever imagined, and it has constantly been able to reinvent itself.

The book, entitled ‘The Islamic State’: Essence and Opposition, could become a bellwether of a major shift in Putin’s actions toward a more ideological approach in this area as well as others.

Al-Shabaab faction pledges allegiance to ISIS, Move shows rift with al Qaeda-backed

1 If a caliph is given the pledge of allegiance by Ahl al hal wal 'aqd ( والعقد الحل which signifies the ,(أهلpeople of authority and influence. These are the people whom the public listens to, and who represent the public. If they give the pledge of allegiance (Bay'ah) to any one person, he has been enacted the caliph.2 The Sahaba of Muhammad: Al-Habbab Ibn ul-Munthir said, when the Sahaba met in the wake of the death of Muhammad, (at the thaqifa hall) of Bani Sa’ida: Let there be one Amir from us and one Amir from you (meaning one from the Ansar and one from the Mohajireen). Upon this Abu Bakr replied: It is forbidden for Muslims to have two Amirs (rulers)...

1The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston Churchill

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leadership Al-Shabaab's leadership, however, is still very much pro-al Qaeda.

Why We Need al-Qaeda”, Rashid argues: So the question has become urgent: if al-Qaeda is changing, what is it changing to? Is it for the better or the worse? And what part might it have in the crucial confrontation with ISIS?

Rashid takes note of the care that the regional Arab states, Saudi Arabia in particular, have taken to “openly avoid bombing or attacking” al-Nusra (al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria) and AQAP (in Yemen) and in providing both with financial support and weapons. He explains, That is because both groups have now declared aims that are shared by the Arab states.

“With Arab money and persuasion, both al-Nusra and AQAP are gaining capacity for local governance and state building. However distasteful the jihadist ideology behind both groups, these efforts suggest an outcome that may be considerably less threatening than that of the Islamic State

Surprisingly, Rashid who has written a book or two on Central Asia overlooks that if al-Qaeda is being refurbished today to be ushered in shortly as a legitimate movement in the world of political Islam, it can only be in anticipation of a role that it will be called upon to play in a near future in the steppes of Central Asia, a far bigger role than its hugely successful enterprise in the eighties in Afghanistan.

Make no mistake; the al-Qaeda’s “base camp” is still the AfPak region.

There can be no "moderate" terrorists, President Putin said Oct 22, speaking about the situation in the Middle East at the Valdai discussion forum. "Why play with words dividing terrorists into moderate and not moderate. What's the difference?" Putin told the forum. A whole "snarl" of terrorist groups act in the region, who fight also against each other for "sources of income" and not for ideology, Putin said, adding that the weapons provided to "moderate" opposition in the region had ended up in the hands of terrorists. “Success in fighting terrorists cannot be reached if using some of them as a battering ram to overthrow disliked regimes," Putin told the forum, saying that this way the terrorists would not go anywhere. "It's just an illusion that they can be dealt with [later], removed from power and somehow negotiated with," he added. Syrian President Bashar Assad has also agreed with the possibility of Russia offering support to the Syrian opposition in their fight against ISIS, Putin said. "I've asked [Assad]: What would you say if we support the opposition's efforts in their fight against terrorists the way we support the Syrian Army? And he said: My attitude is positive," the Russian leader told the Valdai forum. Moscow has been seeking to exchange data about the positions of Islamic State militants in Syria with western countries for weeks, and now such cooperation is close, Putin said. Countries should perceive one another as "allies in a common fight, and act honestly and openly," Putin said, adding that only in this way can victory against terror be guaranteed. "Syria... can become a model for partners... of how to solve problems that affect everyone.” The main task is "not to let terrorists move their activity into other regions," the Russian president said, adding that to prevent such an outcome all forces in Syria and Iraq, including state armies, Kurdish militia and various opposition groups, should be united. The "hypothetical nuclear threat" allegedly posed by Iran has never existed, the Russian leader told the Valdai Discussion Club. Washington was just trying to "destroy the strategical balance," Putin said, adding that the US aimed "not to just dominate, but be able to dictate its will to everyone – not only geopolitical opponents, but also allies."Russia and the whole world have been "misinformed" and even "deceived" by the US regarding Iran's suggested nuclear threat, Putin said. Even after Tehran has agreed with





the world on the peaceful nature of its uranium enrichment program, missile defense systems are still being tested by Washington far away from its borders – now in Europe. "We had the right to expect that work on development of US missile defense system would stop. But nothing like it happened, and it continues," Putin said, adding that the international security system has been destroyed under the pretext of the Iranian “threat.” There is a possibility that US anti-missile shield bases in Eastern Europe might be used for offensive weapons, the president said, adding that it may be regarded as a threat to Russia. A dialogue on limitation of strategic nuclear forces should be continued, Putin added."This is a very dangerous scenario, harmful for all, including the United States itself," the Russian president told the forum. There can be no winner in conflicts involving nuclear weapons, the Russian leader said. "The deterrent of nuclear weapons has started to lose its value, and some have even got the illusion that a real victory of one of the sides can be achieved in a global conflict, without irreversible consequences for the winner itself – if there is a winner at all," Putin said. Europe is America’s ‘vassal’ in US sanctions policy Trade and sanctions wars show “unfair competition” on the US side, the Russian president said, commenting on current political and economic relations in the world. Moral norms should be considered in international, political, military and economic rivalry, Putin said, adding that otherwise the competition could get out of control. “Russia could also declare the necessity to democratize the USA, but that would, at a minimum, be impolite,” Putin told the discussion forum. Commenting on the situation in Ukraine, Putin said that Russia accepts any choice made by the Ukrainian people – “who we really consider as fraternal country, fraternal people,” but cannot agree with the way the power in the country was changed. Such methods “are bad, no matter where in the world it happens,” Putin added.“How can we accept coups? You can expect that Iraq and Libya scenarios are being organized for us here. After all, the US authorities weren’t shy about openly and publicly saying that they spent $5 billion on supporting the [Ukrainian] opposition,” the Russian president said.

A new 226-page book written by a group of scholars widely reputed to be close to the Russian security services argues that Islamic State (IS) is, first and foremost, an ideological phenomenon. As such, this militant group can only be contained and then defeated on the territory of the Russian Federation by the articulation and mobilization of a counter-ideology based on the rapprochement of traditional Russian Islam and the Russian Orthodox Church.

The book, entitled ‘The Islamic State’: Essence and Opposition, could become a bellwether of a major shift in Putin’s actions toward a more ideological approach in this area as well as others.

Specifically, editors Amelina and Areshov’s book concludes with a clear recognition that “the continuation of the current lack of an ideological dimension [in this fight] is impossible” and that “the only way out of the current dead end is the mobilization of forces of the believers of the traditional confessions for the maximum unity of Russian society and the realization of the national interests of Russia, both in the sphere of geopolitics and in social-political life.”

The rival jihadi groups, split by ideological differences, could be pooling resources to fight the Syrian troops, according to the Kremlin.ISIS commanders were starting negotiations with the Jabhat al-Nusra, a group affiliated





to al-Qaida, operating in Syria. But the messages, which discussed making an alliance to contain Syrian troops, were intercepted by Russia. Major-General Igor Konashenkov said: "Information about the start of talks between the commanders of several big units of the terrorist group Al-Nusra with the commanders of Islamic State about uniting to hold back a Syrian army offensive was picked up by radio intelligence."Only last month, al-Qaida effectively declared war on ISIS, with Osama Bin Laden's successor at the helm of the murderous group blasting ISIS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi for branding himself the "leader of all Muslims".

The well-known expert on terrorism, Ahmed Rashid wrote a clever piece recently arguing that it is about time that al-Qaeda is openly resurrected, given respectability and adopted as a collaborator by the US and its Arab allies. Writing in the New York Review of Books in a piece captioned “Why We Need al-Qaeda”, Rashid argues: The truth is that al-Qaeda has evolved in profound ways since the death of Osama bin Laden and the emergence of ISIS… ISIS can now claim to have ground forces in more than a dozen countries… Al-Qaeda, on the other hand, is much depleted. However, it still has a major presence in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen through its affiliates, and it continues to inspire Afghan, Central Asian, and Pakistani militants… It also has increasingly set itself apart from ISIS in strategy and aims on battlefields in both Syria and Yemen. So the question has become urgent: if al-Qaeda is changing, what is it changing to? Is it for the better or the worse? And what part might it have in the crucial confrontation with ISIS?Rashid takes note of the care that the regional Arab states, Saudi Arabia in particular, have taken to “openly avoid bombing or attacking” al-Nusra (al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria) and AQAP (in Yemen) and in providing both with financial support and weapons. He explains,That is because both groups have now declared aims that are shared by the Arab states. Al-Nusra has set as its primary objectives toppling the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, defeating the pro-Iran Hezbollah militia, and eliminating Iranian support for Assad. AQAP, meanwhile, is resisting the Houthi uprising and also wants to eliminate Iranian influence in Yemen. So al-Nusra and AQAP have become allies and not enemies of the Arab states.Indeed, al-Nusra has made overtures to the US recently by vowing not to attack targets in the West and by demonstrating a new willingness to cooperate with other anti-Assad groups. Al-Nusra has also replaced its earlier plans of building a caliphate with a novel ideology of “nationalist jihadism”, apart from edging away from the grotesque version of the Islamic law to which they had subscribed earlier.By coincidence, the AQAP in Yemen is also on a similar image-building exercise that would open the door to the fascinating avenue of collaborating with Saudi Arabia and the Yemen in the common cause of rolling back the tide of Iranian influence.Above all, there have been reports that al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri has issued a directive not to attack US targets and to concentrate on the Middle East. The plastic surgeon is doing a splendid job, isn’t it? Putting together all these exciting changes in the visage of the al-Qaeda, Rashid felt encouraged to write, “With Arab money and persuasion, both al-Nusra and AQAP are gaining capacity for local governance and state building. However distasteful the jihadist ideology behind both groups, these efforts suggest an outcome that may be considerably less threatening than that of the Islamic State… In the months ahead, we should not be surprised if formal talks between al-Qaeda and these Arab states begin.”Rashid’s piece presents a powerful argument for the US to be at the table when these “formal talks” commence.However, it is a deeply-flawed assessment primarily because it is predicated on the wrong





assumption that the US and its key Arab allies are not together in the business of consorting with a refitted al-Qaeda. The US and Saudi Arabia have always been conjoined at the hips in the gory business of manipulating militant Islamist groups, starting from the Afghan jihad in the eighties.Rashid does not comprehend that the real use of al-Qaeda affiliates is not in the Middle East theatre as much as in Central Asia where the US is robustly pushing its containment strategy against Russia and China. The Islamic State is already doing a fairly good job becoming a permanent challenge to Iran, getting it bogged down in a proxy war. What more can al-Qaeda do in the Middle East? It is becoming an uphill task for al-Qaeda to match the IS in sheer “charisma” on the Arab street. Even the Taliban in Afghanistan fears from the IS’ growing appeal to its cadres. On the other hand, it is the Central Asian militant groups such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan that are closely affiliated with al-Qaeda.Surprisingly, Rashid who has written a book or two on Central Asia overlooks that if al-Qaeda is being refurbished today to be ushered in shortly as a legitimate movement in the world of political Islam, it can only be in anticipation of a role that it will be called upon to play in a near future in the steppes of Central Asia, a far bigger role than its hugely successful enterprise in the eighties in Afghanistan. (Image by Cees; Central Asia, extending from the Caspian Sea through western China, has long been a strategic focus of al-Qaeda. The writings of top al-Qaeda strategists, most notably Abu Musab al-Suri (AKA Mustafa bin Abd al-Qadir Setmarian Nassar) and Ayman al-Zawahiri, advocate for the establishment of a jihadist front throughout Central Asia to serve as a stepping stone towards the creation of an al-Qaeda stronghold, extending from the Caucuses across the Caspian Sea and into Pakistan. )Make no mistake, the al-Qaeda’s “base camp” is still the AfPak region. The regional backdrop cannot be overlooked, either – Pakistan is moving into the orbit of China lately





and is being inducted into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, while the nascent signs have appeared of a regional initiative (again, involving China in a pivotal role) to stabilize Afghanistan, which of course could only lead to the vacation of the US and NATO military presence in that country. BY M.K. BHADRAKUMAR on JUNE 17, 2015 in ASIA TIMES NEWS & FEATURES

New Russian Book Says Only Ideological Approach Can Defeat Islamic State A new 226-page book written by a group of scholars widely reputed to be close to the Russian security services argues that Islamic State (IS) is, first and foremost, an ideological phenomenon. As such, this militant group can only be contained and then defeated on the territory of the Russian Federation by the articulation and mobilization of a counter-ideology based on the rapprochement of traditional Russian Islam and the Russian Orthodox Church. The book, entitled ‘The Islamic State’: Essence and Opposition, was prepared under the editorship of Yana Amelina, of the Caucasus Geographic Club, and Andrey Areshov, of the Scientific Society of Caucasus Specialists. It was released in mid-October, in Vladikavkaz. The work describes the emergence of the Islamic State and devotes particular attention to its expansion in the North Caucasus, the Middle Volga and Crimea. It contains not only analytic materials about these issues but also a chronology, maps and key documents (full text available at Kavkazgeoclub.ru, accessed October 19).But what makes the book especially noteworthy is its argument that Moscow’s current use of force against the group’s adherents inside Russia is not only failing but counterproductive. As such, ‘The Islamic State’: Essence and Opposition calls for an entirely different approach, one based on a recognition that Moscow is engaged in a war of ideas with the IS and can win only by actively promoting a traditional Islamic–Orthodox Christian ideology.Specifically, editors Amelina and Areshov’s book concludes with a clear recognition that “the continuation of the current lack of an ideological dimension [in this fight] is impossible” and that “the only way out of the current dead end is the mobilization of forces of the believers of the traditional confessions for the maximum unity of Russian society and the realization of the national interests of Russia, both in the sphere of geopolitics and in social-political life.” (Image by Cees) This book makes six specific and quite remarkable recommendations for action:• It advocates “all possible support for the Islam that is traditional to Russia, including

organizational, financial, methodological, and other assistance and the provision of security at a necessary level of Islamic theologians and religious figures who are leading the ideological struggle against religious extremism.”

• It calls for “the development and strengthening of cooperation between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Muslim Spiritual Directorates (MSD), both in the sphere of joint activities and for a common improvement of the moral climate in Russian society via joint efforts against information campaigns of an atheistic and anti-Russian nature.”

• It says that these two religions working with the state should conduct “a constant active explanatory-propagandistic campaign to unmask the misconceptions of the Islamic State and other radical-Islamist groups via the media and social networks, and work directly in youth groups in high-risk areas.”

• It calls for the “creation and development of a system of Islamic education and a Muslim theological school that will harmoniously combine the traditions of





Russian Islam with the ancient basis of world Islamic academic and scholarly centers.”

• It urges Russian law enforcement agencies to avoid “anti-Islamic rhetoric as such” and it calls for a review of the Federal List of Extremist Materials in order that “classic Islamic texts”—a far broader category than just the Koran—not be routinely included on that list.

• And it calls for restrictions on “the free dissemination in Russian media, the Internet, other means of mass communication, and in the expert community of marginal and, at times, openly inadequate judgments about the supposed limitation of rights of believers in Russia—conclusions that sometimes reach the level of an open apology for the Islamic State and other radical structures and organizations.”

Given the authors and their subject, it is quite likely that these proposals will be actively considered, especially as they fit with President Vladimir Putin’s current and increasingly Eurasianist approach to foreign and security policies. As the Kremlin leader said himself at the re-opening of the Cathedral Mosque in Moscow, this approach reflects his belief that Russian civilization is rooted in both Christianity and Islam (Kremlin.ru, September 23). This echoes his earlier suggestion from several years ago that Orthodoxy and Islam have more in common than Orthodox Christianity has with Roman Catholicism (Islamnews.ru, December 16, 2010). Almost certainly, the Kremlin is not going to accept all of these ideas just because they were expressed by Putin loyalists, but three of them may have a serious impact on Moscow’s thinking: First, the notion that the fight with the Islamic State, at least within Russia, is a battle of ideas rather than just a military contest could lead to a revision of how Moscow pursues the fight in the North Caucasus and perhaps more generally. Second, the notion that anti-Islamic propaganda and actions by the authorities are proving





counter-productive—offending more people than attracting them—may lead to a diminution of such policies. And third, the book’s attack on the current list of extremist literature may lead to an even more radical revision of that list than the one Putin has proposed by suggesting that the holy books of the traditional religions are beyond the reach of the courts (Windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com, October 18). If the Kremlin moves in any of these directions, ‘The Islamic State’: Essence and Opposition, which had an initial print run of only 300 copies, could become a bellwether of a major shift in Putin’s actions toward a more ideological approach in this area as well as others. --Paul Goble

ISIS vs. al-Qaida: Zawahiri says Baghdadi is not the leader of the Muslim worldMiddle East October 6, 2015 A month after the leader of al-Qaida said that the Islamic State and its leader are illegitimate, a recording of Ayman Zawihri was released Monday, documenting an even harsher tirade against ISIS and the man who refers to himself as the Caliph of Islam, ISIS chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. "You spill blood and attack the Muslim people in order to rule," Zawihiri said in his fourth recorded lecture released as part of his "Islamic Spring" lessons. He added that, "Baghdadi's Caliphate is a Caliphate of explosions, damage and destruction." The bulk of the criticism dealt with the manner in which ISIS forces those under its rule to convert to Islam and succumb to the organization's rule. "Pledging allegiance by force, which some spiritual leaders have allowed, is not our way," he said. "Despite the reports of ISIS gains made against other rebel groups in Syria, including the al-Qaida affiliated Nusra Front, Zawihiri claimed that "Baghdadi doesn't not rule over us. There are Mujahadin that control wider territories than ISIS," he said. The al-Qaida chief said that "the choosing of a Caliph can be done solely with the agreement of the Muslim people. Expropriating power forcefully and by the sword is a crime against Islamic doctrine."

According to Zawahiri, Baghdadi, like he himself, swore allegiance to former Taliban leader Mullah Omar in Afghanistan - which he then violated. "The true Caliphate of Islam is in Afghanistan, under the leadership of Mullah Muhammad Omar." He added that "ISIS has violated the rules of jihad and has turned its fighters from people who want to get to heaven to people who go to hell." Last month as well, Zawihiri declared that he "does not recognize Baghdadi's claim to be Caliph," and said that the organizations attempts to define itself as the Caliphate are illegitimate, and do not have the loyalty of al-Qaida, "even though some spiritual leaders have allowed it." The al-Qaida leader called on Muslim scholars to warn the youth not to misunderstand Islam, like "the Salafist organizations who accuse other Muslim sects of heresy, democracy or secularism."On September 9, Zawahiri rejected the legitimacy of the Islamic State caliphate, but he expressed a willingness to cooperate with ISIS forces in fighting in Iraq and Syria. In a previous audio recording, the al-Qaida leader said, "If I was in Iraq or Syria, I would cooperate with ISIS against the Crusaders, atheists and Shi'ites - despite the fact that I don't recognize the legitimacy of the group's Caliphate, because the issue is bigger than them or me."

Zawahiri argues Islamic State’s ‘caliphate’ not based on ‘prophetic method’BY THOMAS JOSCELYN | September 22, 2015 |





Al Qaeda’s propaganda arm, As Sahab, has released the third installment in its long-delayed “Islamic Spring” series featuring Ayman al Zawahiri. The jihadist group’s emir uses the video to launch an ideological attack on the Islamic State’s so-called “caliphate,” arguing that it is not based on the “prophetic method” and is therefore illegitimate. Zawahiri builds upon the arguments he made in the first two editions of the series, which al Qaeda began to release in August.Zawahiri says that one of the most important features of the “prophetic method” is arbitration according to sharia law. Al Qaeda has consistently criticized Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s Islamic State for failing to arbitrate its differences with other jihadist groups in sharia courts. Anyone who fails to abide by sharia arbitration, Zawahiri argues, “is not following the prophetic approach” and is therefore “not even fit to be pledged to.”In other words, Baghdadi is not “fit” to receive the oaths of allegiance that have been sworn to him as the self-declared caliph.Zawahiri cites a variety of Islamic texts, including hadiths, to emphasize his point that Muslims must be consulted before a caliph accepts their pledges of fealty. Neither the person who gives his allegiance “without consulting the other Muslims,” nor the man “to whom the pledge of allegiance was given” should be “supported, lest they both should be killed,” Zawahiri says, citing one text.After working his way through additional Islamic tracts, Zawahiri argues that the community of worldwide Muslims, represented by those in power, has the right to select a caliph from among those fit for the leadership role. Baghdadi was not elected in such a manner, but instead by the people immediately “around him.” The al Qaeda leader blasts the process by which Baghdadi was deemed the caliph, arguing that such a important role cannot be filled by a man who receives a “pledge of allegiance” from “a small number of anonymous people” who do not represent the ummah (worldwide community of Muslims).Zawahiri wonders why the Islamic State rushed “to claim titles and designations” for itself that were not warranted. The al Qaeda leader says the jihadists must “strengthen” the “units” that already exist and are “headed” by “the Emir of the Faithful,” Mullah Muhammad Omar.This segment shows how dated Zawahiri’s talk is, as the Taliban announced Omar’s death in late July. (A transcript released along with the audio message indicates it was likely recorded in March or April of this year.) The Taliban also subsequently admitted that it covered up Omar’s death in order to keep the jihadists united under one banner. Al Qaeda reaffirmed its allegiance to Omar in mid-2014, at a time when the Taliban’s first emir had already either died or was otherwise incapacitated.Incredibly, al Qaeda shows no embarrassment from any of this, deciding not to edit Zawahiri’s references to Omar out of his speech. Zawahiri even calls on jihadists to avoid “rebelling against” or breaking their existing oaths of loyalty to Omar.One reason why al Qaeda may be unconcerned about Zawahiri’s references to Omar is that few jihadist groups have broken from the Taliban-al Qaeda axis in the nearly two months since the Taliban admitted that Omar was an absentee leader. In addition, al Qaeda’s relationship with the Taliban is secure, as the two remain closely allied more than 14 years after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.





Baghdadi’s Islamic State grew out of the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), a political front established by al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). Zawahiri briefly discusses the ISI’s loyalty to al Qaeda. The ISI was established by Abu Ayyub al Masri (also known as Abu Hamzah al Masri), who swore allegiance to another jihadist known as “Abu Omar al Baghdadi.” US military and intelligence officials concluded that, at first, Abu Omar al Baghdadi was an empty figurehead invented to put an Iraqi face on AQI’s efforts. Later, according to US officials, al Qaeda backfilled the role.Outwardly, however, al Masri was loyal to “Abu Omar al Baghdadi.” Zawahiri says that al Masri “mandated” that al Baghdadi be “subservient” to Osama bin Laden and also swear his allegiance to Mullah Omar. According to Zawahiri, Abu Omar al Baghdadi agreed to this arrangement.Zawahiri’s explanation of the ISI’s place in al Qaeda’s network is a not-so-subtle attempt to further undermine Abu Bakr al Baghdadi’s credibility. It was only after Abu Ayyub al Masri and Abu Omar al Baghdadi were killed in April 2010 that Abu Bakr al Baghdadi became the ISI’s top leader. Al Qaeda has made it clear that he, too, swore allegiance to bin Laden and Zawahiri before going rogue.Al Qaeda’s emir lists a number of other criteria that a caliphate must satisfy in order to be considered legitimate, arguing that the Islamic State falls short in each case. And Zawahiri closes with a warning for Baghdadi’s followers. He tells them not to fight any man unless they are certain that he is “an enemy of Islam and deserves to be fought.” It doesn’t matter if their emir (leader) commanded them to do so, Zawahiri says, as this excuse will not save them from Allah’s judgment should they spill Muslim blood without good reasons.Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Senior Editor for The Long War Journal.

With All Eyes On ISIS, Al-Qaida Quietly RebuildsBy DINA TEMPLE-RASTON • OCT 20, 2015The Pentagon has announced that a U.S. airstrike killed one of the leaders of a shadowy al-Qaida cell known as the Khorasan group. The group is made up of about two dozen veteran operatives who were allegedly sent to Syria by the leader of al-Qaida to plan attacks against the West. NPR's Dina Temple-Raston reports that while ISIS is getting most of the headlines these days, al-Qaida appears to be organizing behind the scenes.DINA TEMPLE-RASTON, BYLINE: For years now, some of al-Qaida's most seasoned operatives have been living in Iran. Osama bin Laden sent his family there right after the 9/11 attacks, and his closest confidants went with them. That is, until recently when al-Qaida's leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri started moving these key people back out onto the battlefield.BRUCE HOFFMAN: It sounds completely counterintuitive, but al-Qaida's been living large.TEMPLE-RASTON: Bruce Hoffman is the head of the National Security Program at Georgetown University.HOFFMAN: They're letting, strategically, ISIS take all the heat, galvanize everyone's attention and they are, meanwhile, replenishing their ranks, growing and, I would argue, husbanding their resources for what they see as the next phase of the struggle.TEMPLE-RASTON One of the people who was supposed to help al-Qaida with that next phase was the Saudi man the Pentagon said it killed in an airstrike in Syria. His name was Sanafi al-Nasr, and he'd been funneling money and recruits to al-Qaida from Iran for more than a decade. He's thought to have shown up in Syria late last year. Zawahiri also enlisted another man who's better known. He's bin Laden's youngest son, Hamza bin Laden. He and Zawahiri appeared together in an audiotape back in August. Georgetown's Hoffman





said it was a PR move.HOFFMAN: Of course, with Hamza bin Laden, you have the best possible brand you could imagine. You have supposedly bin Laden's chosen heir.TEMPLE-RASTON: A chosen heir whom Zawahiri appears to be grooming for a prominent position in today's or maybe tomorrow's core al-Qaida leadership. Intelligence officials say Zawahiri is also starting to move key people into Afghanistan and Pakistan, among them a former Egyptian army officer named Saif al-Adel.SETH JONES: Saif al-Adel is a very important, strategic figure in al-Qaida.TEMPLE-RASTON: That's Seth Jones. He's the director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corporation.JONES: He's got a historical relationship with Ayman al-Zawahiri and he certainly did with Osama bin Laden and is someone whose credentials and charisma would help.TEMPLE-RASTON: Help al-Qaida get back on its feet after a relentless drone campaign that hollowed out its leadership and help the group in its competition with ISIS. So now it appears al-Qaida's leadership is calling on people who are closely identified with the group's heyday, like bin Laden's son and one of its most popular operatives. RAND's Seth Jones says this falls into the group's pattern.JONES: We look at snapshots when we look at al-Qaida. Some years, they're strengthening, and some years, they're weakening. But they have always been able to come back if given the opportunity.TEMPLE-RASTON: Which may explain why the U.S. has been so focused on al-Qaida's Khorasan group in Syria. Five of the group's key members have been killed in the past four months. In addition to this weekend's announced death, which al-Qaida has not yet confirmed, the U.S. said it killed the group's founder in northwestern Syria in July. Days later, an allied airstrike near Aleppo killed a French citizen, an explosives expert, who'd been a key member of the group. The problem, says Georgetown's Bruce Hoffman, is that al-Qaida keeps finding new people to fill those vacancies.HOFFMAN: The bottom line is that al-Qaida has just always had a much deeper bench than we've ever imagined, and it has constantly been able to reinvent itself.TEMPLE-RASTON: Which is why Hoffman says it still presents a significant threat and could still find a place in a post-ISIS world. Dina Temple-Raston, NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

Regards Cees: Extremism does not emerge in a vacuumThursday, 22 October 2015 Manuel AlmeidaThe current wave of Israeli-Palestinian violence and reprisals has already been dismissed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as only the latest upsurge of terror the Israelis have had to contend with. Sadly, as in previous cases, this ongoing tragedy is unlikely to generate the kind of scrutiny the problem warrants. Israeli-Palestinian tensions, the plight of the Palestinians’ and the radicalization of many of its youth is treated today by many governments the world over as either an unsolvable and thus unworthy issue or a negligible, local security one. The rise of ISIS, the most threatening breed of transnational militant jihadism the region has ever witnessed, contributes to that perspective. After al-Qaeda, ISIS has brought back the focus of experts and analysts on the root causes of extremism and militant jihadism and how al-Qaeda is in many ways a precursor of ISIS. However, practically absent from most discussions on the origins of transnational jihadism is the role Palestinian refugees played in the development of that ideology.It is evident Netanyahu and his cabinet are determined to deny Palestinians their own state and at the very least turn a blind eye to settlement expansion.Manuel al-Meida





Before Afghanistan Most accounts about the rise of transnational jihadism trace it back mainly to the 1980s and the flow of jihadists (and would-be jihadists) from across the Muslim world to Afghanistan to fight the invading Soviet Union troops. The so-called Afghan Arabs were an almost insignificant reinforcement to the fearless Afghan Mujahedeen, backed logistically and financially by several governments.Although many of the Afghan Arabs never took their defensive jihad beyond that particular fight, after the conflict a few of them did shift their focus to the “infidel” governments across the Arab and Muslim worlds and their supporter, the United States. One of these jihadists was Osama Bin Laden, who founded al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in the 1990s.

A more comprehensive reading of the origins of transnational jihadism has been provided a few years ago by Hazim Al-Amin, a Lebanese journalist, with the book Al-Salafi Al-Itim (“The Orphaned Salafist”). Rather than focusing on Afghanistan, Al-Amin’s book shows how the militant extremist ideology al-Qaeda came to embody finds its roots in the Palestinian refugee communities scattered across the Arab world. Uprooted from their homeland between 1948 and 1967 and stripped of a national identity, these refugees found in radical interpretations of Islam an inclusive transnational identity and a vehicle to take their battle beyond the borders of Palestine.

The Palestinian ideologues It was due to Saleh Abdallah Sarryia, a Palestinian born on the outskirts of Haifa, that a militant jihadist group would first set foot in Egypt. After moving to Baghdad in 1948, where he was arrested after the group he founded reportedly targeted Iraqi Jews and sought the overthrow of the Iraqi government, he went on to Cairo. There, in his meetings with local leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, Sarryia often expressed his disappointment with the Brotherhood’s conciliatory position toward the Egyptian government.

In 1974, Sarryia and his followers in Egypt were responsible for the failed take-over of the Egyptian Technical Military Academy located in a Cairo suburb. His manifesto, Risalat Al-Iman (Message of Faith), placed a far greater emphasis on the mission to topple infidel Arab regimes than on the liberation of Palestine. Ayman Al-Zawahiri, the former emir of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and current leader of al-Qaeda, remembered hearing one of Sarryia’s sermons: “As soon as I heard the speech by this visitor I realized that his words carried weight and meaning on the need to support Islam.”The sermons and texts of another stateless Palestinian from the West Bank and member of the Muslim Brotherhood, Abdallah Azzam, were a key influence on the volunteers joining the jihad in Afghanistan. Azzam, Bin Laden’s mentor, moved from the Palestinian military camps run by the Palestinian Liberation Organization in Jordan to Saudi Arabia, where he taught in university for a year. In 1981, he applied for a position at the Islamic University in Islamabad, with the intention of being closer to the jihadists fighting the Soviets next door in Afghanistan.In Pakistan, he established the Maktab Al-Khadamat (Services Office), tasked with welcoming the jihadists heading to Afghanistan and collecting donations coming in from Arab and Muslim countries. It was in the summer of 1984that an alleged meeting between Azzam and Bin Laden created Jihad magazine to promote the activities of the Office. Roughly a decade later,





their collaboration would give birth to al-Qaeda.Another Palestinian, Abu Muhammad Al-Maqdisi (also known as Isam Al-Barqawi), was a scholar originally from Nablus. Maqdisi’s books and fatwas made him one of the most influential militant Salafist preachers in the Gulf. For a while in the late 1980s, he moved from Kuwait to the capital of Pakistan’s northwestern frontier province of Peshawar, where he met a young thuggish jihadist, known as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.After the Gulf War, Maqdisi moved to Zarqa, the city home to the largest Palestinian community in Jordan and that was gradually transforming into a center of Salafist jihadism. Both Maqdisi and Zarqawi would be arrested in Jordan and spend time in prison together, where Maqdisi became Zarqawi’s teacher.

From Zarqawi to ISIS Originally from eastern Jordan, young Zarqawi had also spent his teenage years in the 1970s in Zarqa. Once the emir of Jordan’s Palestinian Salafist community, Zarqawi was the leader of Al-Tawhid Wal-Jihad, a group that would later become the Iraq-based al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia. He was responsible for the brutal bombings of three hotels in Amman in 2005 and, most infamously, for a savage campaign of indiscriminate attacks in Iraq that only ended when he was killed by a U.S. drone strike in 2006. Zarqawi’s thirst for blood provoked tensions in his relationship with al-Qaeda’s leadership. Zarqawi’s organization would carry the title of the most brutal jihadist group that ever existed until the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq, which sprang in part from the remnants of al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia. In The Orphaned Salafist, there are many other examples of Palestinian refugees who were either pioneers in the ideology of transnational Salafist jihadism or lured into its claws in its early stages, including Abu Qatada. Another Jordanian national of Palestinian origin, Abu Qatada would become one of the most influential preachers of today’s radical Salafist ideology. It is evident Netanyahu and his cabinet are determined to deny Palestinians their own state and at the very least turn a blind eye to settlement expansion. But they should be reminded the extremism that plagues the Arab world does not emerge in a vacuum. The grievances arising from injustices such as the Palestinians’ plight are the lifeline of radical organizations, which in turn provide a cover for the brutalities committed by tyrants such as Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. It is a vicious circle. _________ Manuel Almeida is a writer, researcher and consultant on the Middle East. He holds a PhD in International Relations from the London of Economics and Political Science and was an editor at Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper.

Al-Shabaab faction pledges allegiance to ISIS, Move shows rift with al Qaeda-backed leadership Al-Shabaab's leadership, however, is still very much pro-al Qaeda.By Robyn Kriel and Briana Duggan CNN Published 10/23 2015 A high-ranking member and spiritual leader of Al-Shabaab has pledged allegiance to ISIS, a move that further fractures the Somali-based jihadi group and spreads the reach of ISIS farther into Africa.The report that formerly UK-based Abdul Qadir Mumin had sworn loyalty to ISIS came from a source familiar with Al-Shabaab and was supported by a U.S. intelligence source, who said Mumin's pledge came in a video that is expected to be released online. In the video, Mumin, along with several other jihadis based in Somalia's Central Region, swear their allegiance to ISIS. Some known Al-Shabaab members have already done so online.Al-Shabaab's leadership pledged loyalty to al Qaeda in 2012. The Al-Shabaab-linked source told CNN that members of the group now fear for their lives as other political leaders systematically try to root out possible ISIS supporters within their ranks.Sources within Al-Shabaab say the announcement is not totally unexpected. For weeks, Al-Shabaab's secret police, known as the Amniyat, have been arresting and jailing members within the insurgent group who they believed would switch their allegiance from





al Qaeda to ISIS. The source close to the jihadi group told CNN from inside Somalia that the situation within the group is "tense," and likened it to a "state of emergency."Mumin is thought to be currently based in the mountainous Puntland region of northern Somalia, and thus unlikely to be persecuted or reached by the Amniyat, which operates mostly in southern Somalia. The split is more significant in symbolism than in numbers. Sources within Somalia's security apparatus estimate that about 100 fighters would likely defect to ISIS, among the estimated 1,400-strong insurgent group. Yet the defections are mostly coming from the younger members, while the older members maintain allegiance to al Qaeda. A Western diplomat inside Somalia told CNN the defection demonstrates a discontent with the current status quo, and shows that ISIS may be more appealing to younger, more impressionable jihadis. "What does ISIS hold for these disaffected members of Al-Shabaab?" asked the western diplomat. "What is the 'wedding gift,' so to speak? This is about technical expertise and funding. Al-Shabaab's money streams are being depleted by the current war. ISIS could be seen as really attractive on one hand, and dangerous on another. This is a sort of terrorists' conundrum." One analyst explained ISIS' effectiveness in using modern technology to recruit new members. "Many experts and scholars view (ISIS) as a juggernaut that the international community simply cannot oppose because they use violence so brutally and then disseminate it so effectively over social media in an effort to recruit new members and intimidate opposing forces," said terrorism expert Max Abrahms, based in the United States.Al-Shabaab's leadership, however, is still very much pro-al Qaeda. Its most recent propaganda video, showing a deadly attack on Burundian soldiers fighting for the African Union in Southern Somalia, used quotes from the late al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and the group's current leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri. "This is a subtle way of intimating the leadership's loyalty to al Qaeda," says a source close to Somalia's intelligence service, NISA. Al-Shabaab's current leader -- Ahmad Umar -- has been described by his followers as ruling with an iron fist, perhaps using the possible ISIS defection as pretext to take out those who have spoken up against the leadership or their policies and suppress opposition."This ... iron fist policy ... has caused discontent in the ranks of the Mujahideen," the source close to Al-Shabaab told CNN, referring to foreign fighters. "Many Muhajirs (foreign fighters and members of the diaspora) were trying to leave and the harakah (leadership) is trying to make them stay." The leadership wants to keep the non-Somali fighters inside Somalia and keep them pro-al Qaeda to continue to make their operation appear legitimate, the source added."Al-Shabaab won't have a jihadi legitimacy if they don't have muhajideen (foreign fighters) within their ranks," the source said. "They were built on welcoming foreign fighters, and having them in the movement's hierarchy from the very first day."The defection of some Al-Shabaab members to a pro-ISIS allegiance is a serious win for the Islamist terror group and potentially spreads its reach from Iraq and Syria through to North Africa, then to West Africa through Nigeria's Boko Haram group and now to East Africa, potentially as far as the borders of Kenya. "The Islamic State has been trying to recruit Somalis and members of Al-Shabaab for a while, it helps ISIS color in their map just that bit more," says a Somali intelligence source speaking from the capital, Mogadishu. The defection also shows a certain division within its ranks. The source close to Al-Shabaab told CNN he thought it was "the worst idea ever." "Morally -- I see (ISIS) as a deviant, bloodthisty tyrannical group," he said. "I don't know why I would join them. (ISIS) cannot get us heavy weaponry or fill our ranks with men and expertise due to geographical issues. The only thing we would gain from joining them is momentum."Somalia said its battle against terrorists will not be affected by any name changes. "The





government ... does not alter any bit on its commitment and drive to annihilate the forces of evil extremism from its land whether they change their name, affiliation or not," said Abdisalam Aato, the government spokesman. "We as a government will continue to eradicate them from the small pocket they are remained with."




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