Cees de WaartThe State of Al Qaida

June 2015

2014

“Do no shade or hide tell me as it is.” ADM James G. Stavridis, former SACEUR

X

1996

March 3, 1924, the Ottoman Caliphate was abolished. Departure of Mehmed VI, last Sultan of the Ottoman Empire, 1922.

The Sheikh-ul-Islam proclaiming a Holy War, WW-I.

In the long term, understanding challenges, related security threats, root causes, and improving collective security, anticipating, understanding, shaping, limiting, and, ideally, preventing security threats to both Africa and Europe.

Gen. Carter Ham, the top US military commander for Africa, warned of the triple threat Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Boko Haram and Al Shabaab present.

“It’s (AQ) not on the run, and that ideology is actually, it’s sadly, it feels like it’s exponentially growing,” Former, DIA Director Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn. “My belief—core al Qaeda is the ideology.”

“We have not defeated the idea. We do not even understand the idea.”Maj. Gen. Michael K. Nagata, commander of American Special Operations forces in the Middle East

Recently retired Gen. Keith Alexander, “We’re at greater risk,” he said. “Look at the way al-Qaida networks. From al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, and now in Syria, the al-Nusra front..

Al-Qaida Senior LeadershipAl-Qaida Senior LeadershipAl-Qaida Senior LeadershipAl-Qaida Senior LeadershipAQ Associated GroupsAQ Associated GroupsAQ Associated GroupsAQ Associated Groups

Extremist Web PresenceExtremist Web PresenceRecruitersRecruitersExtremist Web PresenceExtremist Web PresenceRecruitersRecruiters

Ideological GroupsIdeological Groups

IdeologuesIdeologuesAssociationsAssociations

Extremist ClericsExtremist ClericsMediaMedia

SchoolsSchoolsMuslim BrotherhoodMuslim Brotherhood

Hizb ut-TahrirHizb ut-Tahrir

Ideological GroupsIdeological Groups

IdeologuesIdeologuesAssociationsAssociations

Extremist ClericsExtremist ClericsMediaMedia

SchoolsSchoolsMuslim BrotherhoodMuslim Brotherhood

Hizb ut-TahrirHizb ut-Tahrir

Non-ViolentNon-ViolentNon-ViolentNon-Violent

““LoneLone Wolves”Wolves”

““LoneLone Wolves”Wolves”

The Extremist PhenomenonThe Extremist Phenomenon

Caliph al-BaghdadiCaliph al-BaghdadiCaliph al-BaghdadiCaliph al-BaghdadiIS GroupsIS Groups

Can now claim allegiance not toJihadist Commander but directly to Caliph—a Political /Religious Leader. IAW Sharia it is Obligatory.

SO: What is it that influence the water temp??

Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn,“the core ideology and belief system” of al-Qaida “is spreading, not shrinking.”- Aug 2014

Do we understand the dynamics' of the “phenomena”.

An Analytic Problem of Understanding Salafist Ideology

5

Ideology/Ideology/Culture/DoctrineCulture/Doctrine

Tawhid

Jihad.

Dawa

Hesba

Sharia.

al-Wala' wa-l-Bara; allegiance and disavowal; Takfir,

Savagery

Hijra

  "The Closing of Bab al-Ijtihad."   The Closing of the Muslim Mind

Salafist doctrines; As-Salaf us-Salih (the Salaf) refers to the first and best three generations of Muslims

The Near and far: Dar al-Islam, the citizenry abide by the ordinances, rules, edicts, and assembly of Islam. Dar al-harb, the House of War. March 3, 1924, the Ottoman Caliphate was abolished, The Caliphate Conference. Cairo. May 1926

"End-of-Time Battle"

Khorasan

Quran, Hadith, jurespudence; Fiqh

While hiding in Afghan caves, al-Zawahiri wrote a second book, Knights Under the Prophet’s Banner, about his career and philosophy as a terrorist. His first book in 1991, Bitter Harvest, gives what one biographer described as “a moral justification for nearly indiscriminate murder under the pretext of jihad.”

Haram

Sunni - Shia

Amirul Mu'mineen

Mujtahid specialist on the deduction of the Islamic rules from four major sources: the Qur'an, Hadith, conscience of the community, and reasoning.

Quraysh

Fatwa

council for Ahl al-Hall wa al-Aqd ; those who loose and bind

Blooodline – Tribe - Fighting Commander

Madhi

The Cloack

Two Calips

al Qaeda names its primary enemy as "the Jews and Crusaders.“The second is the so-called "apostate rulers, The IS reverse!

Dar al-Kufr

Knights Under the Prophet's Banner with the subtitle "Reflections into the Jihad Movement,"

Around 2008, Exoneration of the Nation of the Pen and the Sword of the Denigrating Charge of being Undetermined and Powerless

Dec 2009, The Morning and the Lantern

Ayman al Zawahiri As-Sahab Media Presents General Guidelines for Jihad

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri published the second edition of his book “Winds of Paradise,” clarifying in it the proper conduct of suicide operations and how to respond to enemy propaganda against them.

Management of Savagery: The Most Critical Stage Through Which the Ummah Will Pass; Abu Bakr Naji

"The Global Islamic Resistance Call"

Did you read them? –“do you understand these and their relationships?”   “IF not, how can you identify an effective strategy?”

Sayyid Qutb

The Al Qaida Handbook is a document that British police state they found in the Manchester home of Anas al-Liby in 2000 , http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Qaeda_Handbook

Military Studies in the Jihad Against the Tyrants: The Al-Qaeda Training Manual, http://www.bookdepository.com/Military-Studies-Jihad-Against-Tyrants-Anonymous/9781907521249

An English language guide for Westerners seeking to join al-Qaeda has been published, with recommendations on how to cope with the hardships and dangers of life as a jihadist; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/al-qaeda/9265512/English-language-al-Qaeda-training-manual-revealed.html

Jan 2004: Al-Qaeda has issued a chilling new call to arms to recruits who remain undetected by security agencies. In a terrorist manual published on the internet, Osama bin Laden says:

'After Iraq and Afghanistan will come the Crusader invasion of Saudi Arabia. All fighters all over the world must be ready.' The manual has been masterminded by Saif al-Adel, the organisation's third most senior man and the only terrorist other than bin Laden and his partner Ayman al-Zawahiri to have a $25 million reward on his head.

Islamic State

Al Qaida

Two visions One Goal, and both nlt 2020

Daulah Islamiah Nusantara

Al Qaida 2013-2016 Caliphate, Caliph, IS delared in 2014

the Khorasan

CdW

A map of the ISIS' administrative areas, including the 16 wilayats, was published earlier last year.

Khorasan parts of Afghanistan, northeastern Iran, southern Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan. Some believe that at certain times Khorasan covered a wider area, and extended to the boundaries of the Indian subcontinent.

Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri (Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi aka Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Samarrai, or Dr. Ibrahim, or Abu Dua

YESNO

CdW

The Deep Battle? 8 Jan 2015, the head of MI5 has

warned: A group of core al Qaida terrorists in Syria is planning "mass casualty attacks" against the West

Salafist Ideology

Operational Theatre

Prior to the declared Islamic State - Extremists’ Battlespace* August 2012

Areas of ConflictAccording to AQSL

Al-Qaida inThe Arabian

Peninsula

2009

Al-Qaida inIslamic Magreb

2006

Islamic Emirateof Iraq

2006

Islamic Emirateof the

Caucasus2007

Islamic Emirateof Afghanistan

1996

Ethiopia

Kenya

AQ Kurdish Battalions

2007

Boko Haram

2002/2009

Ansar al-JihadSinai

2011

Al-Shabaab

2007

PakistanConstellation

TTP, HQN, LeT, JeM, LeJ

Iran

Emerging Operational Theatre

AbdullahAzzam Bdes

2009

TurkestanIslamic Party1997

Al-NusrahFront2011

Abd al-RahmanBrigades

2012

GazaConstellation

Ansar Dine2012

Movement for Unity and

Jihad in West Africa

2011

Al-SuriStrategic Depth Confrontation in open

fronts, the most

favourite are 1. Afghanistan:2. Central Asian Countries and areas behind the river:3. Yemen and Arabian Peninsula:3. Yemen and Arabian Peninsula:4. Al-Sham land [TC: Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, Palestine] and Iraq:

By this, here are the priority areas as per their importance:1. Countries of the Arabian Peninsula, al-Sham countries, Egypt, and Iraq.This land contains the holy places, oil, Israel, and countries surrounding it..2. Countries of North Africa from Libya to Mauritania:3. Turkey, Pakistan and countries of central Asia: It contains the second largest reserves of oil in the world. It contains a huge and historical Islamic movement. It is considered to provide strategic depth tothe Jihadist movement and Arab resistance.4. The remainder of Islamic countries: The Call for Global Islamic Resistance by Abu-

Mus‘ab al-Suri

Al-Zawahiri Maghreb strategy

Al-Zawahiri Strategic Vision

Al Zawahiri and Al Suri combined Plan and intentAl Zawahiri and Al Suri combined Plan and intent

Russia “should be an ally in the fight against terrorism,” NATO SG

The Limburg

USS Cole

March, 2009, The 4 Balmoral was circled by pirate vessels in waters off the coast of Somalia

video alleged to show memebers of the group Al-Furqan firing a rocket propelled grenade at a merchant ship in the Suez Canal

The Japanese oil tanker M Star

Abdul Karim Krymsky, the deputy emir of Jaish al Muhajireen wal Ansar (the Army of the Emigrants and

Helpers, or Muhajireen Army), said that Crimean Tatars and Ukrainian Muslims should "start on the path of

jihad." Krymsky made the statement in a video in which he appeared with Salahuddin Shishani (the Chechen),

the emir of the Muhajireen Army.

United Jihad Council head Salahuddin

invites Taliban and Al-Qaeda to Kashmir to 'liberate' the region.

Ghazwa-e-Hind, or the final battle in

India

“Black Flag of Khorasan”Why is there no storm in your Ocean

My Muslim brothers in all over the world! We must make a serious effort to bring an end to these oppressions onMuslims in Bangladesh, India, Burma and Sri Lanka with everything within our capacity. "There is no solution for Palestine except Jihad," Zawahri said.

While we are looking somewhere else: Al Zawahiri Options

'The Jewish state will vanish and the morning sun will rise on Palestine'

"Jihad! Jihad against America! Jihad in Gaza

“The Houthis are now in control of more than one third of Yemen’s combined air, land and naval

forces, including some of Yemen’s most strategically important bases.” The senior military official claimed that President Hadi is no longer in control of decision-making in Yemen, describing

his role at the present time as “ceremonial.”

Al Zawahiry: "the road to Jerusalem passes through Cairo. In Israel's neighbourhoods, prime al-Qaida focus areas: Syria, which is in the midst of a full-blown civil war, and Egypt's Sinai, Yemen and Libya. So far, The Islamic State still holds to: The Apostates First, then likely Lebanon, Jordan, Sinai...Saudi Arabia..

El Sisi Warns of ISIS-ISIL Plan to Take Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia. July 2014,Egypt

Where is it all? When do they plan to use it?

“the awakening”, “Opening Eyes” , “Arising and Standing Up”, “the creeping loss of the regimes’ power, 2013-2016: an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared, 2016: “total confrontation.” and “definitive victory.”

Al-Zawahiri: The “heart of the Islamic world.” This area includes “al-Sham [greater Syria], Egypt, and the neighbouring states of the [Arabian] Peninsula and Iraq,” and Zawahiri likens the area to “a bird whose wings are Egypt and Syria, and whose heart is Palestine.”

They say those who forget history are doomed to repeat it again, al-Qaida had spent nearly 20 years building up contacts and cells in Sudan, other parts of Africa, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Saudi Arabia and beyond. -Ahmed Rashid

Jan 01, Egypt President, "corpus of [Islamic] texts and ideas that we have sacralised over the years" are "antagonizing the entire world"; that it is not "possible that 1.6 billion people [reference to the world's Muslims] should want to kill the rest of the world's inhabitants—that is 7 billion—so that they themselves may live"; and that Egypt (or the Islamic world in its entirety) "is being torn, it is being destroyed, it is being lost—and it is being lost by our own hands."

Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, ISIS -/- AQ al Zawahiri

The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham’s (ISIS)

Peshmerga

The Kurdish a "century-old dream" of sovereignty

Iran, to interfere WHEN the

extremists reach the Shia cities of

Najaf and Karbala

Lebanon and Jordan, Milions of refugees should sound alarm

bells.”

Around two thousand Jordanians in armed Islamist groups… have expressed that Jordan might be their next goal.

Avoid killing Shia, Christians, Hindus, and Sufis in the context of "warding off sin," in order to "focus on striking the American spearhead." Zawahiri..

Caliphate: IS, . "We offer them three choices: Islam; the dhimma contract - involving payment of jizya; if they refuse this they will have nothing but the sword," the Isis statement said.

If you are unable to come to Syria or Iraq, then pledge allegiance in your place -- pledge allegiance in … .” “What Are You Waiting For?” Do you not look around you?” (IS Dec 14)

Crisis response is not a contingency plan in the global war on terrorism.

“This is what will cause the battle to be transported to the hearts of your own homes; because Muslims will not stand idly by and watch Muslims be bombed and killed in their countries while you are safe on your countries,” he said. “The price of war will not be paid by your leaders alone. You will pay the biggest price.” He also portrayed the U.S.-led coalition as a “Crusader alliance” against Sunni Muslims and vowed to fight back. 28 Sep 14, Nusra Front leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani warned Western countries

AQ Jan 13, the 'coming strikes' would target the 'heart of the land of non-belief'

CdW

In Africa, the Tenth Parallel passes west to east through Nigeria, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Sudan and Somalia

The 10th Parallel North has been described as the “fault line where Islam and Christianity meet and clash

AQ: They call it Afikaya,  a doctrine that all African states must be governed by Muslims

A British foreign policy think tank released a study claiming that the terror group Al Qaida is regrouping in Africa creating “an arc of instability” from the Western Sahel to the Eastern Horn.

AQ Strategy Africa“The most qualified regions for liberation are Jordan, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, the land of the two holy mosques [Saudi Arabia], and Yemen.”

- Usama bin-Ladin February 2003

Management of Savagery (2004) Nigeria was added as a priority country. Describes Stages forCreating Islamic Nation, Urges Terrorism

Strategy of Diversification of Fronts (2010): The Sahel desert region will be the field for a fierce battle between Al-Qa'ida and the Crusader hordes . . . this blessed front has great weight in the equation of the conflict that the Islamic ummah is engaged in. It stands as a dam before Europe, and it will soon become, by the grace of God, a front for the support of mobilizing Muslims in the depths of the ancient continent. Likewise, its link to the region of the Horn of Africa will create a great cohesion between two large wings among the wings of the Islamic army, and it will pave the way for extending influence over the entirety of Africa. (Shumukh al-

Islam Network)

AQIM's objectives include ridding North Africa of Western influence; overthrowing governments deemed apostate, including those of Algeria, Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, and Tunisia; and installing fundamentalist regimes based on sharia. And than move North!

CdW

AQAP and AQ Gen-Manager al-Wuhayshi

AQIM leader Abu Musab Abdul Wadud

AQIM’s leader, Drukdal, focused against “Crusader France,” accusing Paris of supporting the “apostate” regimes of North Africa, and against Spain, pledging to “purify” Ceuta and Melilla, the two Spanish enclaves in North Africa, as a first step toward re-conquering Andalusia (or al-Andalus).

AQIM leader Abu Musab Abdul Wadud

While these states of the Maghreb and Sahel are AQIM's "near enemy," the group has declared Spain and France its foremost "far enemies."

CdW

Al-Qaida, $500 Million, to Boko Haram specifically meant to remove “infidels” in Government and ensure that Muslim candidates from the North emerge in 2015 general elections as part of the Sect’s plan to Islamize Nigeria.

The United Nations on 11 Dec 2014, warned that chaos stirred by Islamist fighters in Libya could engulf Sahel countries.

04 Jan 2015. Europe's fear of Syria's ghost boats

Al-Zawahiri Unveils Maghreb Strategy; Al-Zawahiri called for followers to implant themselves in Algeria and spread al-Qaeda ideology throughout the Maghreb and West Africa.  

Egypt, Sisi; no time to lose. "I say and repeat, again, that we are in need of a religious revolution. You imams are responsible before Allah. The entire world is waiting on you. The entire world is waiting for your word ... because the Islamic world is being torn, it is being destroyed, it is being lost. And it is being lost by our own hands." (1 Jan 2015)

ANKARA 7 Jan 2015 : The world is losing its ability to prevent conflicts and the lack of "effective leadership" has led to the worst displacement situation since World War II. Antonio Guterres, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugee

Taliban and AQ former president

Pervez Musharraf

AQ -President François Hollande and French soldiers

AQ- Qassem Soleimani, the general of Iran’s elite

Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

In the last 5/6yrs: World leaders under threat from Al Qaida or their Affiliates.

AQ -Assassinating U.S. President Barack Obama

and U.S. Gen. David Petraeus were on bin

Laden’s “wish list

AQ tells Kill the Queen.

The No 1 target is the Queen, “Hit two birds with one stone .” (Inspire magazine)

CdW

DiversifyingThe Fronts

Shumukh al-Islam Network

2010

Management of SavageryAbu-Bakr Naji.

2004Vision of the Jihaadi Movement

& The Strategy for the Current Stage

2009

The Call to GlobalIslamic ResistanceAbu Mus’ab al-Suri

2005

Running out of Time; Understanding Jihadist Strategy

Key Sources; Salafist Ideology

Plan for the Unthinkable; IS and AQ merger.

“I have been monitoring al Qaida’s leaders’ rhetoric towards Baghdadi," "They are getting softer and softer. ... The Islamic State, regardless of how big or small it becomes, will come back to its mother: al-Qaida." Riyadh Mohammed, The Fiscal Times October 10, 2014.

Hisham al-Hashimi, a former adviser to the Iraqi Security Forces and the author of a just-completed book about ISIS, in an interview with The Fiscal Times. He predicted that ISIS's current leader, al-Baghdadi, would be killed either by al Qaida or by U.S.-led airstrikes against the Islamic State in Syria.

The result, would be that the Islamic State's fighters -- and its extensive arsenal of sophisticated, internationally made weapons -- would join al Qaida's ranks.

Think outside the box

Dar al-Islam; 'house/abode of Islam‘Dar al-Kufr; land of disbelief

Dar al-Harb House of war"; also referred to as dar al-Garb "house of the West"

“the awakening”, “Opening Eyes” , “Arising and Standing Up”, “the creeping loss of the regimes’ power, 2013-2016: an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared, 2016: “total confrontation.” and “definitive victory.”

Do’s IS intent fits AQ’s Strategy?

"We will conquer Europe one day," the (ISIS) man said. "It is not a question of if we will conquer Europe, just a matter of when that will happen. But it is certain ... For us, there is no such thing as borders. There are only front lines. "Our expansion will be perpetual ... And the Europeans need to know that when we come, it will not be in a nice way. It will be with our weapons. And those who do not convert to Islam or pay the Islamic tax will be killed."

German fighter who spoke on behalf of ISIS's leadership.

It's a classic military mistake to leave a partially defeated enemy on the battlefield in one form or another

-- let them survive.

The problem is that intelligence agencies are now looking for Isis under every bed. The truth — mercifully — is that it has not yet arrived. But what remain present are extremist groups with deep roots in the local soil, and these are just as dangerous. Ahmed Rashid December 10, 2014

The truth is that, in many countries in the Muslim world, Isis may have sympathisers but it does not yet have well-established roots. . Well before the attacks, however, al-Qaeda had spent nearly 20 years building up contacts and cells in Sudan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Ahmed Rashid December 10, 2014

Regards CdW