Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-87-AQ-Future Works

By Capt (Ret) C de Waart, only share if Confidence is guaranteed..

Documents; 'Future Works' reveal al Qaeda's plans for seizing cruise ships, carnage in Europe, now similar claims are made by Daesh.

Cees, this is a follow-up of my: Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-106-Caliphate-Grand-Plan. The two fold document’s one regarding AQ, the other Daesh the so far seen stated future plans and intent. To my surprise over the last year the world press and leadership is paying lots of attention to the Daesh activities and were stunned by the Daesh Five years plan: a one on one copy of al Qaida’s 2020 Strategic plan. It may seem as, let me use the words again as posted in 2007 when the AQSL 2020 plan came to known to the public: Ridicule 1, a Fantasy, far fletched, a pipe-dream, etc. However as we have learned from the past, if we in the West would have paid attention to Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf, we should not underestimate these current statements, be it either by AQ or Daesh, at least we should take notice and think what if the unthinkable become’s reality.

For al Qaida it is Disrupt, Dismantle, Defeat and for Daesh it is; We Will Degrade and Ultimately Destroy --- US president Obama.

It is a classic mistake to leave a partially defeated enemy back on the battle field in one way or the other.

The ideological purity of the Islamic State has one compensating virtue: it allows us to predict some of the group’s actions. Osama bin Laden was seldom predictable. He ended his first television interview cryptically. CNN’s Peter Arnett asked him , “What are your future plans 2?” Bin Laden replied, “You’ll see them and hear about them in the media, God willing.” By contrast, the Islamic State boasts openly about its plans—not all of them, but enough so that by listening carefully, we can deduce how it intends to govern and expand. (C however Who’s plan it is they boast about, correct, Al Qaida.)

WASHINGTON -- Before Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi became what many consider the world's most powerful terrorist, he was in U.S. custody. U.S. forces released Baghdadi from an Iraqi prison in 2009 after four years in captivity. His reported parting words to American troops? "I'll see you guys in New York 3." ------- 6 Aug 2014, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

Cees: Throughout most of history, war has been the norm, peace the exception. Pursuing victory and conquest, founding empires – these were seen as noble pursuits. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is self-evidently among those who hold such views today. He has declared himself caliph of the Islamic State: spiritual, political and military ruler of the world’s Muslims, heir to Mohammad who founded the first Islamic empire. Al-Qaeda, from which the Islamic State splintered, has similar goals, though AQ leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, like AQ founder Osama

1 http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2006/01/zawahiri_and_alqaeda.php2 http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/3 http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2014/August/See-You-In-New-York-Jihadists-Plans-for-America/

bin Laden, believes the first order of business is to collapse America’s infidel empire. That achieved, the restoration of Islamic power and glory surely will follow. “Establish a state that defends the Muslim countries, seeks to free the Golan, and continues Jihad until the flag of victory is raised above the usurped hills of al-Quds (mosque in Jerusalem),” Zawahiri urged jihadists fighting in Syria in February 2012. In an al-Qaeda house in Afghanistan, New York Times reporters found a brief statement of the "Goals and Objectives of Jihad": Establishing the rule of God on earth, Attaining martyrdom in the cause of God, Purification of the ranks of Islam from the elements of depravity. In 1998, several al-Qaeda leaders issued a declaration calling on Muslims to kill Americans-including civilians-as well as "those who are allied with them from among the helpers of Satan." In the early 1990s, al-Qaeda produced the Encyclopedia of the Afghan Jihad, a detailed how-to guide for using handguns, explosives, and biological and chemical weapons, in print and on CD-ROM. Materials belonging to a captured al-Qaeda operative in England detailed techniques for forgery, surveillance, and espionage. The leader of Al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, said in September 2014 the group had launched a new off-shoot in the Indian sub-continent. The new organization aims to create a Muslim caliphate in Burma, Bangladesh and parts of India. The information was conveyed in a video message that the Islamist extremist movement posted online. The footage, which was found in online jihadist forums by the SITE terrorism monitoring group, said Al-Qaeda would fight to revive the caliphate. “We want Islam to return to the Indian subcontinent, which was part of the Muslim world before it was invaded. It will serve Muslims in Burma, Kashmir, Gujarat, Bangladesh, Ahmedabad and Assam,” Zawahiri said in the video, according to the New Delhi Television Ltd. Zawahiri goes on to say that “establishing Al-Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent is the result of two years of work to unify the Mujahideen. The rise of this new branch demonstrates that jihad under the leadership of Amir of Believers, Mullah Omar [head of the Afghan Taliban] is expanding 4.” The US Intelligence Community judges that al-Qaida's regional affiliates-al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), al-Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI), al-Qa'ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and al-Shabaab -- will remain committed to the group's ideology, and in terms of threats to US interests will surpass the remnants of core al-Qa'ida in Pakistan.

“It is important for the West to understand that all these groups want the world to know that indoctrination is taking place,” --- Steven Stalinsky, executive director of MEMRI.

C; Since the Arab uprisings erupted some years ago, the global jihadi movement has metastasized to a variety of new locales across the Arab world, most recently in Syria, Libya, Sinai and Tunisia. While these upheavals surprised many in the region, al-Qaida had predicted such events unfolding in a 20-year strategic plan (2000-2020) that came to light in 2005. That blueprint has gone according to plan so far, albeit more because of outside and structural forces than the efforts of jihadis themselves. As a result, the movement was well-positioned to take advantage of the new developments. In his book “Al-Zarqawi: Al-Qaida's Second Generation,” Fouad Hussein details al-Qaida’s 20-year plan, which has seven phases, with 2013 representing the beginning of the fifth.

ISIS vs. Al Qaeda 5Al-Baghdadi's claim to lead the world's Muslims has not set well with al Qaeda. Long considered the world's most notorious terror group, al Qaeda had a bitter falling out with ISIS earlier this year. "I still think that al Qaeda is the bigger threat," Thomas Joscelyn, with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told CBN News. "Because al Qaeda has a much more capable, deeper international network, the A-listers of the jihadi world have remained with al Qaeda. And that's a big cause for concern," he said. Al Qaeda and its allies continue to expand their reach. The group now covers more territory than it did

4 http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/al-qaida.htm5 http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2014/August/See-You-In-New-York-Jihadists-Plans-for-America/

on 9/11, from Pakistan to Somalia, to Sinai, Libya, and beyond. The al Qaeda branch that most worries U.S. intelligence officials is based in Yemen. It's been behind several plots against the U.S. homeland and has also recruited a number of Westerners. "There are a small number of people in Yemen and Saudi Arabia who are making very ingenious bombs and very much have the intent to try to deploy them directed at the United States," Levitt said.

Jan 2013, The message, posted on the Ansar al Mujahideen network on Sunday, carried the headline: 'Map of Al Qaeda and its future strikes'. It says: 'Where will the next strike by al Qaeda be 6? 'The answer for it, in short: The coming strikes by al Qaeda, with God’s Might, will be in the heart of the land of nonbelief, America, and in France, Denmark, other countries in Europe, in the countries that helped and are helping France, and in other places that shall be named by al Qaeda at other times.' The message, translated by The Washington Times, says the attacks will be 'strong, serious, alarming, earth-shattering, shocking and terrifying.' All attacks would be recorded and published, it added

At the siege of Vienna in 1683 Islam seemed poised to overrun Christian Europe.We are in a new phase of a very old war.

‘Infidels are our enemy’: Afghan fighters cherish old American schoolbooks. Millions of U.S. taxpayer dollars helped fan religious conflict in Afghanistan in the 1980s, according to a major new study, and even money spent since 9/11 may have stoked tensions.The conventional wisdom that building schools in a conflict zone helps promote peace and stability is called into question by New York University professor Dana Burde, whose findings make sobering reading for donors as reconstruction of Afghanistan enters a crucial period. “Aid education may not always have the influence that we think,” she said. “Although there are dramatic and positive results of current support to education in Afghanistan today, this was not always the case.” Promoting violence — in the form of jihad against the Soviet invaders and their local proxies — was the goal of the U.S.-funded education effort in the 1980s and early ’90s. Textbooks such as “The Alphabet of Jihad Literacy,” funded by the U.S. and published by the University of Nebraska at Omaha, came out at a time when the CIA was channeling hundreds of millions of dollars to mujahedeen fighters to resist the Soviet occupation. USAID funded textbooks for distribution at refugee camps in Pakistan, with content written by mujahedeen groups with the support of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency and the CIA. Burde said the rationale of this indoctrination in the ideas of warfare as religious duty rested on the assumption of the “importance of starting early.” While the U.S. program ended with the collapse of Afghanistan’s communist government, its textbooks have spawned dozens of copies and revised editions, she said. She managed to find

6 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2271146/Al-Qaeda-issues-new-threat-carry-earth-shattering-terrifying-attacks-U-S-Europe.html

several old copies of the Pashto-language books and a 2011 edition on sale in the Pakistani city of Peshawar as recently as last year. The Taliban, she said, continues to recommend these books for children. The majority of the book’s 41 lessons glorify violence in the name of religion. “My uncle has a gun,” reads the entry for the letter T, using the Pashto word for “gun,” “topak.” “He does jihad with the gun.”‘Aid education may not always have the influence that we think. Although there are dramatic and positive results of current support to education in Afghanistan today, this was not always the case.’ Dana Burde professor, New York University And while some details have changed, references to Soviets and communists remain. More alarmingly for U.S. and international forces still in the country, the textbooks describe all nonbelievers as the enemy. “Our religion is Islam. Muhammad is our leader. All the Russians and infidels are our enemy.” “Kabul is the capital of our dear country,” reads the entry for the letter K. “No one can invade our country. Only Muslim Afghans can rule over this country.”Burde says the anti-infidel message in the U.S.-funded textbook of yore is easily repurposed for those seeking to indoctrinate young Afghans today to support the fight against NATO forces. She discovered in the course of her research that the Taliban today insists the books are used in schools in areas under its control. The failure to defeat the Taliban by the U.S.-led combat mission, which technically concludes at the end of 2014, leaves education statistics as a commonly cited indicator for those seeking to claim success for the longest war in U.S. history. During its reign, the Taliban banned girls’ education. Only about 3 percent of girls were enrolled at school in 2001, according to the World Bank; today that figure is about 36 percent. USAID has spent more than $880 million on education since the fall of the Taliban.Burde spent 10 years visiting Afghanistan and Pakistan to study education, and summarized her findings in a new book, “Schools for Conflict or for Peace in Afghanistan.” Since 9/11, U.S. education funding has had a different goal: to provide services to stabilize communities and legitimize the NATO-backed central government. That effort has had mixed results. Perhaps as a result of the counterinsurgency goals, most of that funding was directed to Pashtun areas at the heart of the insurgency, Burde’s research found, ignoring peaceful communities in other parts of the country. That built resentment toward foreigners and Kabul in some villages passed over for such support. “If people perceive that their enemy is getting more of those services, then that could contribute to the underlying conditions for conflict,” she said. ‘No one can invade our country. Only Muslim Afghans can rule over this country.’

‘The Alphabet of Jihad Literacy’ US-funded textbook The findings will challenge the untested orthodoxy among donors that spending money on development will necessarily reduce conflict, according to Graeme Smith, an Afghanistan analyst with the International Crisis Group. Other research into military counterinsurgency programs designed to win hearts and minds had also struggled to show a link between providing services and reducing conflict in Afghanistan, he said. “A lot of resources have been poured into place like Afghanistan in the hope that education and clinics and so forth

will reduce levels of violence,” he added. “But so far the evidence is not clear cut, and there simply isn't a lot of research into that relationship.” Burde's answer — at least temporarily — lies in community-based schools. Set up in a home or madrassa, these informal settings don't require the sort of resources that have caused resentment and corruption elsewhere. There is no school to build, and teachers are locals trained on the job. International donors have begun to switch funds and attention, working with local authorities to set up this new type of school.Her findings suggest they have done an impressive job attracting and educating girls and boys in equal numbers. “When you have a school not set up in a government structure but in a home or a mosque, in the village, protected by the village and supported by the villagers, the likelihood of the school being attacked is reduced,” she said. “And you don't have construction, so you don't have problems with contracts.” But with foreign forces heading for the exits and the government in Kabul ever fragile, the prospects for community schools realizing their promise is clouded in uncertainty.

Buried inside them was a pornographic video called "Kick Ass" -- and a file marked "Sexy Tanja." While 'Future Works 7' does not include dates or places, nor specific plans, it appears to be a brainstorming exercise to seize the initiative and reinstate al Qaeda on front pages around the world, it said – One document called 'Future Works' appears to have been the product of discussions to find new targets and methods of attack, CNN said. German investigators believe it was written in 2009 and that it remains the template for al Qaeda's plans. A year after the document was written, European intelligence agencies were scrambling to investigate a Mumbai-style plot involving German and other European militants which sparked an unprecedented US State Department travel warning for Americans in Europe. "I think it is plausible to think that the 'Future Works' document is part of that particular project," investigative journalist Yassin Musharbash, a reporter with the German newspaper Die Zeit, who was the first to report on the documents, was quoted as saying. "The document delivers very clearly the notion that al Qaeda knows it is being followed very closely," Musharbash told CNN. While 'Future Works' does not include dates or places, nor specific plans, it appears to be a brainstorming exercise to seize the initiative and reinstate al Qaeda on front pages around the world, it said – Al Qaeda's 'future works' found encoded in porn Hundreds of documents were discovered by German cryptologists embedded inside a pornographic movie on a memory disk belonging to a suspected al Qaeda operative arrested in Berlin last year. Details of the documents were obtained by CNN and reveal an inside track on some of the terror group's most audacious plots and a road map for future operations. Future plots include the idea of seizing cruise ships and carrying out attacks in Europe similar to the gun attacks by Pakistani militants that paralyzed the Indian city of Mumbai in November 2008. Ten gunmen killed 164 people in that three-day rampage. Read the full story Part of the treasure trove of al Qaeda documents also includes an analysis from al Qaeda's most capable planners, Rashid Rauf. The document - meant for al Qaeda's senior leadership - shows he was intimately involved in planning the devastating attack on the London transport system in 2005, and tells the inside story of the planning for that attack and another that failed just weeks later. Read the full story

7 http://edition.cnn.com/2012/04/30/world/al-qaeda-documents-future/

Other revelations: The origins of the liquid bombing plot. The conspiracy was broken up on August 9, 2006, two weeks before the plot to bring down planes using liquid explosives was set to be launched. And ever since it was uncovered, the world's airline passengers have been restricted in the liquids they can carry on board. Read the full story

Musharbash believes a complex gun attack in Europe is still on al Qaeda's radar."I believe that the general idea is still alive and I believe that as soon as al Qaeda has the

capacities to go after that scenario, they will immediately do it," he says.

‘Treasure trove’ of al-Qaeda documents uncovered in Germany

May 1, 2012 By JOSEPH FITSANAKIS | intelNews.org |German police have uncovered what appears to be the most significant collection of al-Qaeda planning documents to be acquired by Western intelligence since last year’s assassination of Osama bin Laden. It has been reported that the United States Navy Seals, who raided the late bin Laden’s compound in Pakistan nearly a year ago, obtained thousands of al-Qaeda documents. But the latest acquisition, which reportedly consists of over 100 digital documents, is described by Western intelligence sources as “pure gold”. The documents were in possession of Maqsood Lodin, a 22-year-old Austrian, who was detained by German police last year as he was returning to Europe from a trip to Pakistan, via the Hungarian capital Budapest. During his detention, German authorities found hidden in his underwear a number of digital storage devices.

One of them contained a pornographic video called “Kick Ass”, which, upon further investigation, was found to contain encrypted documents, in .pdf format, that had been disguised to look like video files. According to German newspaper Die Zeit, which first reported on the finding in March, many of the documents were training manuals written in several different languages, including Arabic, German, and English. But intelligence experts are mostly interested in a collection of documents entitled “Future Works”. These contain notes from what seem like al-Qaeda brainstorming sessions on plans for possible terrorist plots in Europe. Among them is a suggestion to “seize passenger ships and use them to put pressure on the public”, according to Die Zeit. A subsequent section in the document discusses the idea of ordering passengers in the hijacked ship or ships to dress in orange-color jumpsuits, similar to those used by the United States in the Guantánamo Bay prison in Cuba. That section is somewhat obscure, but Die Zeit interprets it as a plan to stage public executions of passengers as a way of pressuring Western governments to release al-Qaeda-affiliated detainees.

Other plans, according to the German newspaper, discuss the possibility of carrying out armed suicide raids in European cities, similar to the 2008 Mumbai attacks that killed nearly 200 people in India’s most populous city. The paper quotes “intelligence sources” who argue that the documents —most of which date to 2009— show that al-Qaeda has been considering plans to carry out several low-profile attacks as decoys to preoccupy Western intelligence services, while secretly planning a large-scale, high-profile attack reminiscent of 9/11. Lodin’s arrest, which occurred nearly a year ago, led to the arrest in Vienna, Austria, of Yusuf Ocak, who also visited Pakistan alongside Lodin. Both men are currently on trial in Germany.

Editor's note: This story is based on internal al Qaeda documents, details of which were obtained by CNN May 2012. Hundreds of documents were discovered by German cryptologists embedded inside a pornographic movie on a memory disk belonging to a suspected al Qaeda operative arrested in Berlin last year. The German newspaper Die Zeit

was the first to report on the documents. (CNN) -- On May 16 last year (2011), a 22-year-old Austrian named Maqsood Lodin was being questioned by police in Berlin. He had recently returned from Pakistan via Budapest, Hungary, and then traveled overland to Germany. His interrogators were surprised to find that hidden in his underpants were a digital storage device and memory cards. Buried inside them was a pornographic video called "Kick Ass" -- and a file marked "Sexy Tanja." Several weeks later, after laborious efforts to crack a password and software to make the file almost invisible, German investigators discovered encoded inside the actual video a treasure trove of intelligence -- more than 100 al Qaeda documents that included an inside track on some of the terror group's most audacious plots and a road map for future operations. Future plots include the idea of seizing cruise ships and carrying out attacks in Europe similar to the gun attacks by Pakistani militants that paralyzed the Indian city of Mumbai in November 2008. Ten gunmen killed 164 people in that three-day rampage.Terrorist training manuals in PDF format in German, English and Arabic were among the documents, too, according to intelligence sources. U.S. intelligence sources tell CNN that the documents uncovered are "pure gold;" one source says that they are the most important haul of al Qaeda materials in the last year, besides those found when U.S. Navy SEALs raided Osama bin Laden's compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, a year ago and killed the al Qaeda leader. One document was called "Future Works." Its authorship is unclear, but intelligence officials believe it came from al Qaeda's inner core. It may have been the work of Younis al Mauretani, a senior al Qaeda operative until his capture by Pakistani police in 2011.The document appears to have been the product of discussions to find new targets and methods of attack. German investigators believe it was written in 2009 -- and that it remains the template for al Qaeda's plans. Investigative journalist Yassin Musharbash, a reporter with the German newspaper Die Zeit, was the first to report on the documents. One plan: to seize passenger ships (C- 8.-) According to Musharbash, the writer "says that we could hijack a passenger ship and use it to pressurize the public." Musharbash takes that to mean that the terrorists "would then start executing passengers on those ships and demand the release of particular prisoners." The plan would include dressing passengers in orange jump suits, as if they were al Qaeda prisoners at Guantanamo Bay, and then videotaping their execution.Lodin and a man called Yusuf Ocak, who allegedly traveled back to Europe with him, are now on trial in Berlin where they are pleading not guilty. Ocak was detained in Vienna two weeks after Lodin's arrest. According to a senior Western counterterrorism official, their names were on a watch list, and when they handed over documents at a European border crossing, their names registered with counterterrorism agencies. Both men have pleaded not guilty to terrorism charges. Ocak is also charged with helping to form a group called the German Taliban Mujahedeen, and is alleged to have made a video for the group threatening attacks in Germany. Prosecutors believe the pair met at a terrorist training camp in Pakistan's tribal territories and were sent back to Europe to recruit a network of suicide bombers."We do not know what those men were up to but there are certain files of information that would make it plausible that they were probably thinking of a Mumbai-style attack," says Musharbash.In the fall of 2010, a year after the document was written, European intelligence agencies were scrambling to investigate a Mumbai-style plot involving German and other European militants -- which sparked an unprecedented U.S. State Department travel warning for Americans in Europe.

8 2015, Al-Qaida planning kamikaze attacks on ships in Mediterranean, cables claim http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/25/al-qaida-planning-kamikaze-attacks-ships-mediterranean-russian-cables

"I think it is plausible to think that the 'Future Works' document is part of that particular project," says Musharbash. "Future Works" suggests al Qaeda was an organization under great pressure, without a major attack to its name in several years, harried by Western intelligence. If anything, its predicament is even more dire today. "The document delivers very clearly the notion that al Qaeda knows it is being followed very closely," Musharbash tells CNN. "It specifically says that Western intelligence agencies have become very good at spoiling attacks, that they have to come up with new ways and better plotting." Part of the response, according to the document, should be to train European jihadists quickly and send them home -- rather than use them as fighters in Afghanistan and Pakistan -- with instructions on how to keep in secret contact with their handlers.What emerges from the document is a twin-track strategy -- with the author apparently convinced that al Qaeda needs low-cost, low-tech attacks (perhaps such as the recent gun attacks in France carried out by Mohammed Merah) to keep security services preoccupied while it plans large-scale attacks on a scale similar to 9/11. Those already under suspicion in Europe and elsewhere would be used as decoys, while others would prepare major attacks. That is yet to materialize, but Musharbash believes a complex gun attack in Europe is still on al Qaeda's radar. "I believe that the general idea is still alive and I believe that as soon as al Qaeda has the capacities to go after that scenario, they will immediately do it," he says.While "Future Works" does not include dates or places, nor specific plans, it appears to be a brainstorming exercise to seize the initiative -- and reinstate al Qaeda on front pages around the world.

On 9/11, al Qaeda looks to Syria to revive its fortunes Posted in: 2012, In the Media | September 11, 2012 As al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri takes stock of the terrorist network’s fortunes eleven years after 9/11 he is likely to have mixed emotions.Many of al Qaeda’s senior figures, including Osama bin Laden, are dead or captured as a result of counter-terrorism operations in Pakistan. Those lost include many of its operational experts, such as Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Younis al Mauretani and Rashid Rauf. Most of al Qaeda’s terrorist plots against the West since 9/11 have been aborted or broken up. It’s unclear how far al Qaeda ‘central’ even knew about significant attacks such as that in Madrid in March 2004 – although Rauf appears to have been intimately involved in the London bombings the following year. The group’s sources of finance in the Gulf have come under remorseless attack from the U.S. Treasury and encrypted documents discovered last year by German intelligence revealed an organization under pressure, scrambling to find new ways of attacking the West. One of the documents, entitled “Future Works” and thought to have been written in 2009, suggests al Qaeda was in a hurry to prove its relevance, amid intense pressure from western counter-terrorism agencies. “The document delivers very clearly the notion that al Qaeda knows it is being followed very closely,” according to Yassin Musharbash of the German newspaper Die Zeit, who first reported its existence.“It specifically says that Western intelligence agencies have become very good at spoiling attacks, that they have to come up with new ways and better plotting.” One idea discussed was attacks on cruise ships. There was also a recommendation to train European jihadists quickly and send them home – rather than use them as fighters in Afghanistan and Pakistan – with instructions on how to keep in secret contact with their handlers. But al Qaeda’s barren run continues. Now al Qaeda’s continuing relevance depends to a great extent on its ‘franchises’ – and on the course of events in the Middle East, where the iron-fist of dictators has given way to shades of democracy (Tunisia, Egypt); uncertainty (Libya); and bloodshed (Syria, Yemen and Iraq once again.)In Egypt, Tunisia and Libya militant, Islam has found greater room for maneuver – not the least in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula where Salafist cells have launched rocket and gun attacks

against military and police outposts in recent weeks. According to western counter-terrorism sources, Zawahiri has also tried to influence militant Islamic groups in eastern Libya, dispatching an envoy to the area. But al Qaeda and Salafist extremism face a growing challenge from newly-formed governments hostile to their interpretation of Islam.Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) remains a substantial threat, both in Yemen and beyond its borders. But a military offensive in recent months has driven AQAP out of southern towns and an aggressive U.S. drone campaign has begun to erode its leadership. In the last few months, AQAP has lost deputy leader Said al Shehri and one of its most senior operatives, Fahd al Quso. An April plot to smuggle a bomb on board a U.S.-bound airliner was disrupted thanks to a Saudi double-agent who has penetrated the group.Africa in the past few years has been a bright spot for al Qaeda affiliates, with the growth of al Shabaab in Somalia, now formally part of al Qaeda, and al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb taking advantage of a security vacuum and plentiful weapons in the Sahel. But al Shabaab is under pressure from both the Kenyan and Ethiopian military and beset by internal dissent. It’s at risk of losing the port of Kismayo, its hub and main source of funds.The seizure of much of northern Mali by Ansar Dine [Defenders of the Faith] – a group sympathetic to al Qaeda – has sent shockwaves across the region. Ansar’s occupation of Timbuktu – and the imposition of sharia law in a city long accustomed to a more gentle interpretation of Islam – serves as a reminder of the feeble hold of governments in the region. But Ansar’s alliance with Tuareg militia, always tentative, fell apart weeks after they had found common cause in rebelling against Mali’s central government, and its grip on the region looks uncertain at best. All of which makes events in Syria of growing importance to Zawahiri and al Qaeda “central.” “Whenever you have a case of civil strife and instability, as you have in Syria, it makes it extremely attractive to extremists,” State Department Counter-terrorism Coordinator Daniel Benjamin told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour last month.Zawahiri’s ultimate aim of creating a theocratic Islamist order in the Arab world has for many years rested on two foundations: creating a safe-haven for fighters in the Arab world and winning the support of the Arab masses. The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq provided al Qaeda with an unprecedented opportunity, but the barbaric sectarian-driven attacks of al Qaeda in Mesopotamia under the leadership of Musab al Zarqawi led to a rapid erosion of support on the Arab street. Syria may offer al Qaeda a second chance – an opportunity to regain support across the Arab world by portraying itself as the defender of Sunnis against a merciless Alawite regime. But it has to be careful not to be perceived as trying to co-opt or impose itself on the uprising. That was its mistake in Iraq. The growing sectarian complexion of Syria’s violence may portend the fracturing of a state long held together by repression and an ubiquitous security service, providing al Qaeda with the opportunity to thrive amid a meltdown of authority – and taking it right up to Israel’s border. “Establish a state that defends the Muslim countries, seeks to free the Golan, and continues Jihad until the flag of victory is raised above the usurped hills of al-Quds [mosque in Jerusalem],” Zawahiri urged jihadists fighting in Syria in February 2012.

The Al Qaeda Presence in Syria; Zawahiri’s vision is however still a long way from fruition. To date, there are probably at most a few hundred committed al Qaeda fighters in Syria, a small fraction of the tens of thousands who have joined rebel ranks.U.S. officials have downplayed al Qaeda’s presence in the country. “I would put the numbers in the dozens to 100-plus. You know, we don’t have that much granularity that we can say with any certainty exactly how many are there,” Daniel Benjamin told CNN.Many analysts believe that Jabhat al Nusra, a group founded by Syrian jihadists in January 2012, is affiliated with al Qaeda in all but name. Though the group has not pledged loyalty to al Qaeda nor been recognized by Zawahiri, its propaganda is hostile to the West and non-

Sunni groups. Al Nusra propagandists also appear to have received privileged access to password protected web forums used by al Qaeda and its affiliates. Al Nusra has also claimed responsibility for a significant number of suicide bombings, long the signature tactic of al Qaeda. Noman Benotman, a former Libyan Jihadist now with the Quilliam Foundation in London, has been closely tracking Jihadists in Syria. He told CNN that al Nusra probably has several hundred mostly Syrian fighters, has developed a presence across Syria, and has emerged as one of the most effective groups in waging urban warfare.Unlike other jihadist cells fighting in Syria, al Nusra has a strict vetting process for recruits and is focused on building up an organized committee structure, Benotman told CNN. He also believes it is collaborating with al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), newly revived by growing sectarian fissures there. U.S. intelligence agencies began to detect the presence of AQI operatives in Syria earlier this year and believe they may have had a hand in a number of vehicle-borne bomb attacks against Syrian security services.The growth of hardline Salafism in areas such as Deir Ezzor and Idlib in the last decade has provided both groups with a potential pool of recruits, according to Mohanad Hage Ali, a Beirut-based international security expert. Hage Ali told CNN there are also a significant number of Syrian veterans of the Iraqi insurgency present in these two areas, including some skilled in urban warfare. He said sources on the ground spoke of “thousands” of returnees from Iraq.

Constraints to Expansion; Analysts say al Qaeda may nevertheless hit a recruitment ceiling in Syria. In Iraq the deeply unpopular U.S. occupation helped al Qaeda spread its global Jihadist ideology, but there are no U.S. troops on the ground in Syria.Another drawback for the group, says Benotman, is the memory of the barbaric violence of al Qaeda in Iraq and its killing of so many Muslim civilians in attacks across the Arab world. He says most Salafist groups in Syria – even if their goal is to create an Islamic state, have been determined to keep their distance from al Qaeda because they are not motivated by global jihad. One such group is Sukur al Sham, a Jihadist fighting force which may have several thousand fighters, including some Western recruits, and which has carried out a number of attacks against Syrian security forces, including suicide bombings.“The Arab uprisings has ushered in what I call the era of the new Jihadists – they are complete newcomers to the scene. They’ve dropped a lot of the old al Qaeda concepts and don’t want to be part of the al Qaeda narrative – we’ve already seen this in Libya. This is a very important development,” Benotman told CNN.Benotman nevertheless warns that if regime brutality and sectarian violence escalate, al Nusra could expand its influence over other Jihadist groups.Reports suggest al Nusra is already impressing other Jihadist rebel units and even rank and file members of the Free Syrian Army with its fighting prowess.“When it comes to al Qaeda you need to look at the impact, not the number of fighters. The capability to carry out operations is key and here it may not be easy to compete with al Qaeda,” said Benotman. Al Qaeda elements in Syria are already taking advantage of a regional support infrastructure which stretches from Lebanon to Jordan to Iraq and is mobilizing fighters to travel to the country, he said. Despite the arrival of fighters from al Qaeda affiliates such as the Lebanese Fatah al Islam, analysts say foreign fighters still represent a small minority of those fighting in Jihadist ranks in Syria. However, regional security analysts say that al Qaeda elements in Syria, like many other rebel opposition fighting groups, are struggling to obtain weapons and explosives, which may blunt their ability to make an impact. In Iraq by contrast, Sunni insurgent groups were able to build explosive devices from looted regime stockpiles. Western officials have been concerned that Jihadist groups, including those supportive of al Qaeda, may become better equipped as a

result of funds raised by private donors in some Gulf countries. The fear that weapons may end up with jihadists has been one of the key reasons why Western countries have been reluctant to arm rebel forces in Syria. The Saudi authorities, conscious of al Qaeda tapping into private sources in the Kingdom in years past, have moved to take control of fundraising efforts for Syria’s rebels. So for Ayman al Zawahiri and what remains of al Qaeda’s leadership, Syria may represent the best opportunity to raise the flag.

6 Sep 2014 9 THE United States tasted sweet revenge when Navy Seals swooped on Osama bin Laden’s secret compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, in May 2011, killing the world’s most wanted terrorist and the supreme commander of al-Qaeda. BIN LADEN

As the special operations force swept through the compound, combing every room, they gathered documents and other vital evidence regarding al-Qaeda’s grand plan for its future global war of terror. According to a document compiled by the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR), these documents indicated al-Qaeda’s long-term plans for future targets.From some of the documents seized, a picture emerged that illustrated South Africa as a safe haven where international terrorism could be fomented. Among the treasure trove of intelligence documents seized

during the raid were documents indicating that Bin Laden thought of South Africa as an “open territory” from where al-Qaeda operatives could target Americans, the ICSR report stated.Although it was never confirmed if al-Qaeda or groups allied to Bin Laden were behind it, the total security lockdown of the US Embassy in Pretoria and all its consulates as well as the US Agency for International Development (USAID) in South Africa in September 2009 was widely reported in the media as a “credible threat”. This was during the run-up to the 2010 Fifa World Cup. In the months after Bin Laden’s demise, the Combating Terrorism Crime Centre of the US Military Academy released details of Bin Laden’s operational plans.John Solomon, the global head of terrorism research for World-Check, released a report based on the CTCC details that said the fact that Bin Laden thought of South Africa as an “open territory” and one from which his operatives could work relatively freely to strike at US targets should come as no surprise to those who have been following developments in the country. He pointed out the problem areas in South Africa that make the country a safe haven for international terrorists. This sounds all too familiar for millions of South Africans. Porous borders, corruption in Home Affairs that allows the fraudulent issuing of South African identity documents and passports to terror suspects, “as well as a highly politicised intelligence services focused more on sectarian political battles within the ruling party, all contribute to South Africa being seen as this ‘open territory’”, Solomon pointed out.He added that as early as 1997, al-Qaeda had established a presence in South Africa. In October 1999, Khalfan Khamis Mohammed, part of the al-Qaeda cell that attacked the US Embassy in Dar es Salaam in 1998, was arrested in Cape Town. Not only was al-Qaeda using South Africa as a safe house, but South Africa was also central in the organisation’s fundraising efforts. The case of Yassin al-Qadi, a US-designated terrorist financier who invested US$3-million (R30-million) for a 12% interest in Global Diamond Resources that mined diamonds in South Africa, is but one example, according to Solomon. The issue of South Africa as an operational base and conduit for international terrorists to their target country also emerged in the case of a Tunisian al-Qaeda suspect, Ihsan Garnaoui, in 2004. Garnaoui was an explosives expert who trained in Afghanistan and was “promoted”

9 http://www.dispatchlive.co.za/opinion/bin-laden-is-dead-but-sa-offers-much-as-al-qaeda-lair/

to being an al-Qaeda trainer. He held several South African passports in different names (including Abram Shoman and Mallick Shoman) and travelled via South Africa to Europe, where he was accused of planning to bomb American and Jewish targets.According to Dutch counter-terrorism expert Ronald Sandee, most of Garnaoui’s preparation for these planned attacks took place in South Africa, where he purchased sophisticated military-grade binoculars with an integrated digital camera, diagrams and instructions for the assembly of detonators. Garnaoui was setting up networks in Berlin while still in South Africa. A well-known expert on Islam and senior professor in political studies at the University of the Free State, Hussein Solomon, said the South African government’s preoccupation with a Boeremag-like coup from “white racists” has left the country wide open for real terrorist attacks from groups such as Islamic radicals. “When I interact with our counter-intelligence people, they are more concerned about the Boeremag than al-Qaeda … But they are acting from an ideological perspective which is fundamentally out of sync with reality,” Hussein Solomon said. “More worrisome is the existence of terrorist training camps on isolated farms – with the knowledge of certain people in the government,” he stated in a research paper, Terrorism in South Africa: More Questions than Answers, published in February 2013. “Clearly these government officials believe that South Africa will not be targeted by these elements. Unfortunately, the available evidence does not support such wishful thinking. There is nothing preventing South Africa’s own citizens from becoming ‘collateral’ in the pursuit of other targets,” he said.He warned that this belief that South Africa will not be targeted could also account for the fact that, despite monitoring these camps for a number of years, no action has been taken. “Like any cancer left alone, these camps started to spread, and by May 2010 there were reports that operational training camps were established in several provinces and that these had links with other camps outside the country.” He added that South African journalists had knowledge of these camps as early as June 2010. “If journalists knew about it, why would the South African government have been clueless about it, and if policy-makers do have such information, why do they not shut it down? Is it once again the belief that South Africa is immune from such attacks?” He warned that the political correctness had to stop, and greater clarity in policy and greater effort in implementation were needed.“The terrorists we are confronting share none of our ambivalence on their destructive goals. We cannot hope to defeat them and protect our citizens if we continue to play ostrich.” Bin Laden is dead, but South Africa is still at risk. In May 2012 the Mail & Guardian’s Phillip de Wet published an article on the seized documents from Abbottabad and came to the conclusion that “even though the al-Qaeda boss is dead, South Africa could still be targeted for attacks”. “The so-called Abbottabad documents paint a fascinating picture of internal al-Qaeda discourse and politics – and also show that South Africa could still be under threat from terrorist attacks,” he wrote.“Newly released documents seized … show the al-Qaeda leader might have been keen to see terrorist attacks on targets associated with the United States on South African soil.” Bin Laden told his followers in one of the documents confiscated in his compound to be wary that only one group of mujahidin operates in a country. “Each mujahidin group must ascertain that it is the only al-Qaeda group operating in a country where it intends to target Americans,” he instructed his followers. De Wet also wrote that South Africa was also apparently high on the list of open territories, and quoted from documents translated from Arabic by the Combating Terrorism Centre of the United States Military Academy.“You may find it suitable to target Americans in South Africa, because it is located outside the Islamic Maghreb. Also, South Africa is not covered by the brothers who are located outside that region. The same can be said about other African countries,” the documents read.

The slain al-Qaeda leader was no stranger to South Africa. Soon after the 9/11 attacks in the United States, the South African media carried several stories revealing Osama bin Laden’s history of connections with people and some Muslim organisations in the country. As far back as September 13 2001 the Independent newspaper group carried a story from one of their Kwazulu-Natal-based publications under the heading “Bin Laden has Durban connection”. “Considered the top suspect in Tuesday’s horrifying attacks in New York and Washington, wealthy Saudi-born dissident Osama bin Laden is no stranger to Durban, where his name is held in high esteem among some sectors of the Islamic community.” In its report, IOL added “the al-Qaeda leader’s riches, some of which had been channelled to his Durban supporters, have also been used to propagate Islam and for the printing of the Koran in Zulu”. The Mercury in Durban revealed in 2011 how the Bin Laden family spent millions of dollars buying up property in the city. What has happened to those millions since Bin Laden was killed? De Wet Potgieterhas been an investigative journalist for 38 years.

Regards Cees Sep 15, 2014, Al Qaeda Wasn’t ‘on the Run’ By STEPHEN F. HAYES - 10 -Jan 22, 2015 Al Qaeda is 'On the Run' By Warren Beatty - 11 -

Obama said on September 14, 2014, "This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years." Obama has stated that al Qaeda is "on the run" or "has been decimated" or "is on the path to defeat" or some other variation thirty two times since the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya. Obama has also said repeatedly that Osama bin Laden is dead. That may be true, but al Qaeda certainly isn't. In the March 2014 issue of Inspire, the propaganda magazine of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, this statement appears: "America is our first target, followed by United Kingdom, France and other crusader countries... The important thing is that you target people and not buildings." And Inspire has just published a list of people on al Qaeda's "Most Wanted" list. Stéphane Charbonnier, publisher of Charlie Hebdo, is on that list, so al Qaeda's threats can be taken seriously. Al Qaeda, as we knew it, no longer exists, so al Qaeda may be running to its new identity.A cluster of militant attacks... is a reminder of how the once-singular threat of al Qaeda has changed since the killing of Osama bin Laden, morphing or splintering into smaller, largely autonomous Islamist factions that in some cases are now overshadowing the parent group.Is this what Obama means when he says that al Qaeda is "on the run?" The number of al Qaeda and al Qaeda-related groups rose 58 percent between 2010 and 2013. The number of "Salafi jihadists" (who are a violent part of an extreme form of Islam) more than doubled during the same period. And Obama continues adding to terrorist numbers by releasing them from Gitmo. Yeah, al Qaeda is on the run.

Homeland Security director Janet Napolitano urged that we avoid using the word "terrorism" and use instead "man-caused disasters."

What is the reason the world haven’t we seen the documents retrieved in the bin Laden raid?

It is a classic mistake to leave a partially defeated enemy back on the battle field in one way or the other.

10 http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/al-qaeda-wasn-t-run_804366.html11 http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/01/al_qaeda_is_on_the_run.html

So with the whole world focus on Daesh and every action contributed to them, what is al Qaida doing? They have for a strange reason fallen completely of the world press and political leadership radar. However regional specialist warns that we should not write them off as western political leaders do, and pay far more attention to them.

Let me recall: Press statements from 2014, An 'Islamic Emirate' between Egypt and Israel;

In al-Qaeda's official propaganda channels, the north Sinai area is described as a new front in the war against 'the Jews and the Americans.' For Israel, the emergent insurgency raises the prospect of two de facto al Qaeda controlled areas adjoining its border – one in southern Syria and the other in the Salafi playground that is now northern Sinai.

One of Lebanon’s Salafi leaders with close links to al-Qaeda says the next target of the terrorist group after Syria is Egypt’s Sinai, a new report says.

31 Jan 2014, According to a report by the Kuwaiti daily al-Watan, Omar Bakri has asserted that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic State of Iraq and Levant (ISIL) which is one of al-Qaeda’s offshoots in operating in Syria, is planning to move to the volatile region of Sinai Peninsula which is situated between the Mediterranean Sea to the north, and the Red Sea to the south. Bakri told al-Qatan that, Al-Baghdadi is not only seeking to attach Sinai to the Levant, but he wants to link it to the whole region to make a new emirate which will then turn to a bigger one and go round the earth to reach to the White House.