Interdisciplinary Seminar On

Environmental Issues

Akashdeep Singh Jandu

What Are Environmental

Problems?

Man made environmental problems

originate from the overuse of natural

resources: Open Access Problem

Why are environmental problems

complex?

They create distortions and inequalities

These might lead to conflicts

Scope of the problems

At the International level they appear in 3

ways:

Transboundary Bilateral

Transboundary Regional

Global

Reasons to Study Environmental

Problems at The International Level

Transboundary and Global Nature of

Environmental Problems

Environmentally Related Conflicts

Existence of a Global Environmental

Governance: International Environmental

Accords

Environment-Society Issues

Level of resource use

Population size

Even with constant level of use, attain limits

as population increases

Focus on Society-Environment

Interactions

What behavioral and institutional factors mediate relations with natural system?

What features create vulnerability or resistance to certain natural events or processes?

What mechanisms are available to different types of society to adapt or mitigate change.

Overview of Syllabus

October 2: Introduction to Environment

and Society Interactions: A Problem of

Managing Risks and Uncertainties

October 9: The Physical System; Guest

Lecturer: Professor Martin

Beniston, University of Geneva

Syllabus

October 16: Property Rights Theories and

the Tragedy of the Commons Debate

October 23: Efficiency and the

Environment

October 30: Exhaustible, Renewable and

Sustainable Resources

Syllabus

November 6: Population and Migration

November 13: Trade and Environment:

Production and Processing Methods, Guest

Lecturer: Prof. Joost Pauwelyn (HEI)

Syllabus

November 27: International Cooperation and Conflict

December 4: International Environmental Negotiations

December 11: The Kyoto Protocol

December 18: Exam

General Issue: Environmental

Influences and Human Control

Immediate environmental influences high in past:

very high risks for humans, examples of collapse

Less important with technological progress:

cushioning of risks

Some troubling aspects remain: mastering

Climate change

Environment and Risk: The Problem

of Risk Assessment

Nature always presented risks to

mankind and to all life

Living beings have adapted to those by

developing survival strategies

These are not conscious but have been acquired

in an evolutionary way

Human beings have done the same over the ages

except that conscious strategies have replaced

unconscious ones

What is new is that humans can modify

significantly and quickly their environment

This is not new

Environment and Society. A

Critical Issue for our Future?

At issue is relation between natural processes and human populations

To what extent does human agency matter?

If human choices affect natural processes, can we identify some problems crucial enough to address now?

How can cooperation about environmental issues be organized?

General Issue: Environmental

Influences and Human Control Immediate environmental influences high in past:

very high risks for humans, examples of collapse

Less important with technological progress: cushioning and spreading of risks but trade-off with information becoming more difficult to assess

Therefore some troubling aspects remain: mastering Climate change

The Assessment of

Environmental Risks The studies of society collapse show the importance

of knowing the environment in order to assess the risks it presents: knowledge of two aspects are important: 1) The evolutionary dynamics of the crucial resource 2) The initial resource stock (ex. climate change)

It also shows the importance of social responses to the problems involved in terms of a) control of access b) charging for use in proportion

3 Types of risk management have therefore to be considered:

Risk management types

1. Risks due to nature

2. Risks due to the consequences of

uncoordinated and non-cooperative human

activities, present and future

3. Risks due to problems of coordination

and cooperation of social institutions

present and future

Risks due to nature can be assessed

in terms of expected utility

2 elements: uncertainty measure p (probability) of an outcome and its subjective value or utility U:

P(o)U(o)

This formulation suggests a cost benefit analysis. Suppose there are only 2 outcomes, o1 and o2: Total value is:

P(o1) U(o1) + (1 –P) U(o2)

Present value: [P(o1) U(o1) + (1 –P) U(o2)]/r where r is a discount rate (interest rate)

Risk analysis

Suppose we have several other outcomes resulting from different plans of action

Possibil

ities

Actions Do Nothing Build small

levee

Build big

dike

Minor flooding:

P

U1 U3 U5

High flooding: 1-

P

U2 U4 U6

Risk analysis

States of Nature a1 a2 a3

r1

Extreme bad weather

7000 4000 2000

r2

Nice weather

1000 4000 5000

Risk analysis continued

State of nature r p (r )

r1

Extreme bad weather

0.40

r2

Nice weather

0.60

Solution of the minimization of

expected losses: Min L(a) =

Min (aij p + aij (1 –p))

Expected losses of a1 are inferior to all

others: 3400 instead of 4000 and 3800

This conclusion holds only if one cannot

update information

Cost Benefit Analysis

Previously take the PiUj which is largest

(or smallest if the U’s represent costs)

Climate change: Choose where Marginal

Damage of CC = Marginal Cost of

Abatement

Risks from Nature, Risks from

Society

As seen from the Stephens text in Cashdan, risk analysis can help us understand animal behavior and thus raise our knowledge about nature

This is necessary for estimating stocks of natural resources and their evolution

Risks from Society involve the positive or negative influences (externalities) people can exert on each other: Strategies interfere with each other

Risk, uncertainty, sustainability:

Major issues

Stock and flow of resources

Management of what we do know to assure optimal use

Absence of cooperation can lead to unsustainable use

Introduction of resiliency to confront our lack of information that could lead to exposure to natural hazards or to problems of exhaustion of critical resources

The debate

We are depleting resources at rate that will

lead to their exhaustion: societal collapse

or

Market or other institutions will signal

scarcity, especially through price and either

consumption will decrease or new

technological solution will emerge

An illustration: Easter Island

Upon its discovery by Westerners in 1722,

was poor and had smaller population than

vestiges indicated

Stone Age culture created monumental

statues but had ceased to do so by time of

European discovery

Why did system collapse?

Reference: Jared Diamond (2005) Collapse, New York: Viking Press

Easter Island

Population

Archaeological evidence suggests

settlement by small group of Polynesians

around 400 AD, but perhaps as late as 900

AD

Population grew rapidly and probably

peaked at about 7,000-10.000 around 1400-

1500 AD

By arrival of first Europeans in 1722,

population stood at around 3,000

Easter Island statues

Production system

Farming: sweet

potatoes, yams, taro, bananas, sugar cane

Chicken as only domestic animal

Fish and shellfish but smaller contribution

to diet than elsewhere in Polynesia because

of absence of coral reef

Evidence of intensification of production

Social organization

Hierarchical chiefdom

Evidence from very different house types

Oral tradition talks about clans and

lineages who had demarcated territories but

nevertheless integrated as transport of

statues and raw materials from one part of

island to another indicate

Evidence of decline

Labor no longer organized to undertake big

projects like statue carving and their

movement across the island

Island exchange and cooperation declined

No major ceremonial relations

Chiefs lost power, especially their access to

surplus production Skeletal evidence of

conflict, warfare and even cannibalism

Why decline?

Deforestation: severe already by 1400

Crucial dependence on palm tree

Palm nut provided food

Fronds for thatch roofs, baskets, mats, boat sails

Trunks for transport and raising of statues

But, this palm tree variety was very slow growing:

40-60 years. This is beyond a generation

If population overshoots, and overuses resources

the recuperation time of palm is too long and

population will crash

Consequences of deforestation

Soil erosion: negative effects on agriculture

Lack of wood for canoes, then affects

fishing ability

Absence of effective response

Institutional failure based on inability to

learn from environment in sufficient time

Lack of knowledge: had not put in place

controls over rate of use and over

population