Business Growth &

Frequency Demand

By Saran PhaloprakarnAdvanced Info. Services PLC.

Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by Region

Cisco Forecasts 11.2 Exabytes per Month of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017

Smartphones Lead Traffic GrowthSmartphones Lead Traffic Growth

Source: Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast, 2013

Source: Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast, 2013

Mobile Video Will Generate Over 66 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2017

   Smartphone (% of Data Consumption)

Tablet(% of Data Consumption)

Video/Communications

45% 50%

Information 12% 17%

Web Browsing 6% 7%

Social Networking 7% 3%

Music/Audio Streaming

4% 3%

Top Applications for Data Consumption

Mobile Video Services in Thailand

AIS Movie Store

Japan: The number of smartphone subs trend/forecast (conducted in 2013. 3)

# of smartphone subs # of feature phone subs Ratio of smartphone subs(million)

20

40

60

80

120

100

140

2013.32009.3 2010.3 2011.3 2012.3 2014.3 2015.3 2016.3 2017.3 2018.3

130

110

90

70

50

30

10

Source: MM researchhttp://www.m2ri.jp/newsreleases/main.php?id=010120130328500

Japan : Mobile data traffic growth~ Latest government (MIC) statistics in Dec. 2012~

Monthly data traffic per subscriber

Downlink: 760 MBUplink: 86.3 MBTotal: 846 MB

CE77

0.03

CE77

0.06

CE77

1.09

CE77

1.12

CE77

1.02

CE77

1.06

CE77

2.09

CE77

2.12

CE77

2.03

CE77

2.06

CE77

3.09

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

564626

709

8831018

1251

1430

1799

2063

2425

2528

One subscriberaverage traffic(bps)

+11%

+25%

+15%

+23%

+14%

+13%

77% increasefor a year

+26%

+15%

+18%

+4%

Operator Technology Frequency band

Bandwidth2012

Total BW2012

Bandwidth2015f

Total BW2015f

NTT DOCOMO 61.5 M subs

WCDMA 800MHz 10 MHz 45 MHz 5 MHz 15 MHz1.7GHz 20 MHz - MHz2.1GHz 15 MHz 10 MHz

FD-LTE 700MHz - MHz 25 MHz 10 MHz 65 MHz800MHz 5 MHz 10 MHz1.5GHz 15 MHz 15 MHz1.7GHz - MHz 20 MHz2.1GHz 5 MHz 10 MHz

KDDI 37.7 M subs

CDMA2000(1x+EVDO)

800MHz 5 MHz 15 MHz 5 MHz 5 MHz2.1GHz 10 MHz - MHz

FD-LTE(incl. pico)

700 MHz - MHz 30 MHz 10 MHz 50 MHz800MHz 10 MHz 10 MHz1.5GHz 10 MHz 10 MHz2.1GHz 10 MHz 20 MHz

Softbank 32.5 M subs

WCDMA* DC-HSPA

900MHz 5 MHz 30 MHz 5 MHz 25 MHz1.5GHz 10 MHz 10 MHz2.1GHz 15 MHz 10 MHz

FD-LTE 900MHz - MHz 5 MHz 10 MHz 20 MHz2.1GHz 5 MHz 10 MHz

eAccess 4.3 M subs

W-CDMA 1.7GHz 10 MHz 10 MHz 5 MHz 5 MHzFD-LTE 700 MHz - MHz 5 MHz 10 MHz 20 MHz

1.7GHz 5 MHz 10 MHz

Total Bandwidth 165 MHz 205 MHzWCP AXGP (TD-LTE) 2.5GHz 20 MHz 20 MHz 20 MHz 20 MHzUQ WiMAX > WIMAX 2.1 2.5GHz 10 MHz 10 MHz 20 MHz 20 MHz

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Thailand: The number of 3G smart phones trend/forecast

Source: Thailand Telecommunications Report Q2 2013Business Monitor international (BMI)

If 3G 2100 MHz auction did not happen, Thai Telecommunication Industry will suffer spectrum crisis…

There were 45 MHz for mobile broadband

From Cisco research,we may assume 10x data traffic demand in Y2018

Then we need 10x of spectrum or 450 MHz!!!

Y2012

Y2018

Approximately 3x capacity gain

What can we do??

1. Increase Spectrum 2. WCDMA OFDMA

4. WiFi Off load

6. Beam forming

3. Densification & Small Cell

5. MIMO

Need another 3.3x

Thailand Mobile Broadband SpectrumYear Total Bandwidth

2012 CAT 850 MHz [15 MHz] DTAC 850 MHz [10 MHz] AIS 900 MHz [ 5 MHz] TOT 2.1 GHz [15 MHz]

45 MHz

2013 AWN 2.1 GHz [15 MHz] RF 2.1 GHz [15 MHz] DTN 2.1 GHz [15 MHz]

90 MHz

2014 - 2018 Auction 1800 MHz [75 MHz] Auction 900 MHz [17.5 MHz] Deduct 30 MHz to maintain 2G

(10MHz x 3 operators)152.5 MHz

… beyond 2018

700 MHz

2.3 GHz

2.6 GHz

…

Thank you