Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand...
-
Upload
nicolas-badger -
Category
Documents
-
view
221 -
download
3
Transcript of Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand...
![Page 1: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Airport Forecasting
![Page 2: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Forecasting Demand
• Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport
• Used for developing the airport master plan or aviation system plan
![Page 3: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Master Plan
![Page 4: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Data used to predict future1. Airport service area
2. Origins and destinations of trips
3. Demographics and population growth of area
4. Economic character of area
5. Trends in existing transportation activities for the movement of people, freight, and mail by various modes
6. Trends in national traffic affecting future development
7. Distance, population, and industrial character of nearby areas having air service
8. Geographic factors influencing transportation requirements
9. Existence and degree of competition between airlines and among other modes of traffic
![Page 5: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Estimates Needed
1. The volumes and peaking characteristics of passengers, aircraft, vehicles, freight, express, and mail
2. The number and types of aircraft needed to serve the above traffic
3. The number of based general aviation aircraft and the number of movements generated
4. The performance and operating characteristics of ground access systems
![Page 6: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Forecasting by Judgement
• Delphi Method: A panel of experts on different subjects is assembled and asked a series of questions and projections which they take into account to determine a forecast
![Page 7: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Trend Extrapolation
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year PAX1970 1981281975 2593171980 2957801985 3407171990 36067019952000
375000390000
![Page 8: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Top-Down ModelExtrapolate 1, given 2, get 3:
![Page 9: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Cross Classification Model
• Cross Classification: examines the behavioral characteristics of travelers
• Travelers broken down into classifications based upon these characteristics
• Based on the belief that certain socioeconomic characteristics influence the inclination for travel
• Market study performed to determine the travel characteristics of the individual groups
• By knowing the different groups’ travel patterns, forecasts can be made by projecting the patterns out
![Page 10: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Factors
• Income
• Occupation
• Age
• Type and location of residence
• Education
• etc…
![Page 11: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Market Study
• Market Study method does NOT require complex mathematical relationships
• uses simple equations to generate a classification table or matrix
• Advantage: allows for discrimination between discretionary and non-discretionary travelers and the factors that influence both types
Non-discretionary = business traveler
Discretionary = vacationers
![Page 12: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Multiple Regression
• Econometric Modeling: relates measures of aviation activity to economic and social factors
• Multiple Regression is used to determine the relationships between dependent variables and explanatory variables
![Page 13: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Explanatory Variables
• Economic growth
• Population growth
• Market factors
• Travel impedance
• Intermodal competition
![Page 14: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Regression Equations
• Linear Regression form:
Y = mx + b
• Multiple Regression form:
Yest= ao + a1X1 + a2X2 + a3X3 + … + anXn
![Page 15: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Statistical Testing of Models
• Tests performed to determine the validity of econometric models
• The analyst needs to consider the reasonableness as well as the statistical significance of the model
![Page 16: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Coeff. of Mult. Determination• Coefficient of multiple determination, R2 : measures the
variation in the dependant variable that is explained by the variation in the independent variables
• (e.g. R2 1.0 very good relationship)
• Equation:
R2 =(Yest - Yavg)2
(Y - Yavg)2
![Page 17: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Coeff. of Mult. Correlation
• Coefficient of multiple correlation, R: measures the correlation between the dependent variable and the independent variables
• (e.g. R 1.0 very close correlation)
• Equation:
R = (R2)1/2
![Page 18: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Standard Error
• Standard error of the estimate: measure of the dispersion of the data points about the regression line and is used to establish the confidence limits
• Equation:(Y - Yest)2
m - (n+1)[ ]y est =
![Page 19: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Equations for Trend Line
y = 134.59x + 253.93
R2 = 0.9872
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
250 260 272 274 287 296 307 317 326 332
Microsoft Excel
Worksheet
![Page 20: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Elasticity
• Elasticity: the percentage change in traffic for a 1% change in fare or travel time
• In the past, it was important
• Even greater significance today due to a deregulated industry
• fare wars
• spoke and hub system
![Page 21: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Elasticity
< -1, Elastic, people may change trip behavior
• E = 0, Perfectly Inelastic, no effect on trip behavior
• -1 < E < 0, Inelastic, insensitive to price
qp
pq = ( )
![Page 23: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Elasticity Example
![Page 24: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Calculations
• Tourists:(-4000/2) (7/6000) = -2.33 < -1, Elastic
people may change trip behavior
• Commuters:(-1000/2)(7/7500) = -0.47 -1 < E < 0, Inelastic
insensitive to price q
ppq = ( )
![Page 25: Airport Forecasting. Forecasting Demand Essential to have realistic estimates of the future demand of an airport Used for developing the airport master.](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042814/551a2831550346a4248b5204/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
THE END