Airbus Annual Press Conference - Leeham News … · Airbus Annual Press Conference 13 January 2014...

Airbus Annual Press Conference 13 January 2014

John Leahy

Chief Operating Officer, Customers

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

A year of new industry records

Airbus orders 1,619 gross 1,608 (Airbus 2011)

1,458 (Airbus 2007)

1,503 net 1,419 (Airbus 2011)

1,413 (Boeing 2007)

Airbus

year-end backlog 5,559 aircraft 4,682 (Airbus 2012)

Airbus

Deliveries 626 aircraft 648 (Boeing 2013)

Previous records Airbus records

Orders

Deliveries

Backlog

2013 result


2013 Airbus firm orders

End November 1,408 gross 1,314 net

Dec 2 Undisclosed A319/A320/A321(CEO and NEO) 60

2 Undisclosed A320 (CEO and NEO) 40

4 Undisclosed ACJ320 1

10 United A319/A320ceo -12

17 Z/C Aviation Partners One LLC A319 1

18 Air Asia X A330-300 25

19 Undisclosed A330-200 4

20 Air Caraibes A350-1000 3

20 Undisclosed A320neo 20

23 Emirates A380 50

31 Turkish Airlines A321neo 7

31 Kingfisher A350-800/A380 -10

End December 1,619 gross 1,503 net


2013 Airbus sales

-8 A350-800 net

Firm orders

2013 record year

Gross Net

A320ceo 377 286

A320neo 876 876

A330-200 (incl Freighters) 18 10

A330-300 59 59

A350-900 180 179

A350-1000 59 59

A380 50 42

TOTAL 1,619 1,503


2013 Airbus and Boeing world market share

Data to end 2013

0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Gross order share since 1995

Boeing 82%

Airbus 18%

Boeing 49% 1,531 aircraft

Airbus 51% 1,619 aircraft


2013 Airbus and Boeing world market share

0

20

40

60

80

100

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Net order share since 1995

Boeing 82%

Airbus 18%

Airbus 53% 1,503 aircraft

Boeing 47% 1,355 aircraft

Data to end 2013


2013 gross market share

Boeing 1,531 49%

Airbus 1,619 51%

Units

Boeing $215.8 47%

Airbus $240.5 53%

Revenues

3,150 industry

orders

$456.3bn

industry

Data to end 2013


2013 market share by category - gross

1,208 49%

1,253 51%

Single aisle 2,461 orders

A320 737

306 49%

316 51%

Widebody 622 orders

17 25%

50 75%

VLA 67 orders

A330

A350

767

777

787

A380 747-8

ACJ 4 57%

BBJ 3 43% A350 239 57%

787 183 43%

Data to end 2013

NEO 876 56%

MAX 699 44%

A380 pax 50 82%

747-8 pax 11 18%


2013 net market share

Boeing 1,355 47%

Airbus 1,503 53%

Units

Boeing $197.6 47%

Airbus $225.0 53%

Revenues

2,858 industry

orders

$422.6bn

industry

Data to end 2013


2013 market share by category - net

1,046 47%

1,162 53%

Single aisle 2,208 orders

A320 737

297 50%

299 50%

Widebody 596 orders

12 22%

42 78%

VLA 54 orders

A330

A350

767

777

787

A380 747-8

Data to end 2013

ACJ 1 25%

BBJ 3 75% A350 230 56%

787 182 44% NEO 876 56%

MAX 699 44%

A380 pax 42 81%

747-8 pax 10 19%


Delivery comparison over the last 10 years

0

200

400

600

800

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Airbus BoeingAnnual deliveries

Data to end 2013

2004-2011

Airbus delivered

most aircraft


Backlogs

Airbus

A320ceo 1,688

A320neo 2,610

A330 267

A350 812

A380 182

Total 5,559

Boeing

737NG 1,917

737 MAX 1,763

767 49

787 916

777 (incl 66 777X) 380

747 55

Total 5,080

Data to end 2013

Backlog

5,559 record

industry

backlog


2013 Airbus order backlog by region

Backlog of 5,393 aircraft

Data to end 2013 . Corporate, MRTT less than 1%

Airbus backlog and GMF

Asia Pacific

34%

38%

Middle East

10%

7%

Europe

& CIS

18%

24%

Africa

1%

3%

Latin

America

7%

8%

North

America

12%

20%

Lessors

17%

GMF

backlog


1,253 new A320 Family orders in 2013. 876 A320neo, 377 A320ceo

Commercial data to end 2013. In-Service data Summer 2013

10,193

firm orders

5,895

deliveries

4,298

firm order

backlog 1,688 CEO

2,610 NEO

A320

Takes-off or lands

every 2 seconds

with 99.6%

reliability

firm orders deliveries


A320neo: Featuring new engines and Sharklets

A320neo

15% lower fuel

burn, more range

Most comfortable

single aisle

High commonality

with A320ceo


NEO leads the MAX in orders and customers

Data to end 2013. *3 unidentified

40% 60%

48 customers*

A320neo

2,610 orders

737 MAX

1,763 orders

22 identified

customers

Including

9 customers

converting

159 737NG

Including

2 customers

converting

35 A320ceo

A320neo

60%

prefer

A320neo


737 MAX Leap-1B

A320neo Leap-1A26 / PW1127G-JM

737NG CFM56-7B

A320neo is a better optimised aircraft

With equivalent specifications

A320 has the same OWE as 737-800W

A320neo is 1.4 t lighter than 737 MAX 8

68”

A320 CFM56-5B

68” 61” 69” 81”

OWE: +1.8 tonnes OWE: +3.2 tonnes

By pass ratio: 9 By pass ratio: 12


Airbus Widebody Family: matching market demand


Wide-body sales in 2013

42

230

69

182

2 47 66

12 0

100

200

300

400

500

A380 A350 A330 787 767 777 777X 747-8

Net passenger and freighter wide-body orders in 2013

2013 orders

341 Airbus wide-body

309 Boeing wide-body


Airbus leads Boeing in wide-body sales

Net orders from Jan 2008 to end 2013

115

495 446

213

99

434

280

16

0

100

200

300

400

500

A380 A350 A330 787 767 777 777X 747-8

Net passenger and freighter wide-body orders since 2008

Includes commitments from Dubai Airshow not yet firm orders Orders since 2008

1,056 Airbus wide-body

1,042 Boeing wide-body


77 new A330 Family orders in 2013

Commercial data to end 2013 In-Service data August 2013

A330

Takes-off or lands

every 22 seconds

with 99.0%

reliability

1,313

firm orders

1,046

deliveries

267

backlog


242 tonne A330-300


A330-300242t

300 seats

787-9251t

304 seats

A330-300199t

400 seats

787-9197t

364 seats

A330 cost efficiency in long range configuration

Assumptions. All layouts to equivalent comfort standard. 2000nm sector, JAR 3%, 200nm diversion, fuel price 3 US$/Usg Engine

thrust for A330-300 at 199t = 68k – GE powered. Same delta improvement on engine re-rate assumed on 787-9 as A330-300

+6%

8-abreast 9-abreast

DOC

per

seat

A330 242 tonnes

Lower

cost than

the 787

2,000 nm sector

Direct operating cost per seat

Datum


Making the A330 a successful Regional aircraft

Lower operational weight

MTOW - 199t other weights offered

Optimized thrust

Engine rated at 68k lbs

Up-to-date cabin

Tailored for shorter ranges

A330 Regional

Lowest

cost per seat

regional

aircraft


A330 serving Asia’s domestic and regional markets

A330 versatility from long-haul to short-haul

Assumptions: JAR 3%, 200nm diversion. 85% annual reliability winds, 3% track allowance

Beijing

2,700nm with 400 pax A330-300 @199t MTOW

6,100nm with 300 pax A330-300 @242t MTOW


Domestic PRC will be the largest flow in 2032

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Indian Sub - USA

South America - USA

Central Europe - Western Europe

PRC - USA

Asia - USA

Indian Sub - Middle East

Western Europe - PRC

Asia - Middle East

Domestic Asia

Western Europe - South America

Western Europe - Middle East

Intra Asia

Domestic Brazil

Asia - PRC

Domestic India

Asia - Western Europe

Western Europe - USA

Intra Western Europe

Domestic USA

Domestic PRC

2012

2032

2012 – 2032 Billions RPK 20-year CAGR

7.0%

1.9%

2.9%

3.0%

4.3%

9.8%

6.2%

7.0%

6.1%

4.8%

4.8%

5.7%

8.0%

5.7%

6.1%

4.2%

6.5%

5.9%

5.3%

6.6%


787-9197t

380 seats

A330-300199t

400 seats

A330-300199t

400 seats

787-9197t

380 seats

A330-300 Regional: lowest cost per seat

Assumptions. All layouts to equivalent comfort standard. 2000nm sector, JAR 3%, 200nm diversion, fuel price 3 US$/Usg, Airbus Standard Economic rules

Datum

Cash operating cost per seat

COC

per

seat

+12% Datum

DOC

per

seat

Direct operating cost per seat

2,000 nm sector

24 J, 356 Y

24 J, 376 Y

9-abreast 9-abreast

(Short range configuration)

24 J, 376 Y

24 J, 356 Y

(Short range configuration)

9-abreast 9-abreast

A330 Regional

Lower

cost than

the 787

Lease rates: 787-9 - $1.25m A330-300 - $900k


812

firm orders

39

customers

812

backlog

239 new A350 XWB orders in 2013


Japan Airlines places 31 firm orders, 25 options for the A350 XWB

JAL

18 A350-900

13 A350-1000

Order value $9.5 bn

replaces 777 fleet


A350 XWB strength in simplicity

A350-800

A350-900

A350-1000

Three models of

latest generation aircraft

Seven models

of different generations

787-9

787-8

787-10

777-9

777-8

777-300ER

777-200LR

A350 XWB

Step ahead

of 787

Generation

beyond 777


0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000

A350-900 offers more revenue potential than 787-10

Typical 2-class configurations with 48 J-class at 60-inch pitch, Typical airline flight profile and reserves, * Airbus estimate

+1,600 nm range

+16t cargo

Payload (kg)

315 passengers + baggage

331* pax & bags

Range (nm)

Long haul cargo

16t cargo

twice a week earns

>$5 million per year

787-10 (250.8t) A350-900 (268t)


0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 9 000 10 000

A350-900 capability versus 787-10

787-10 (250.8t)

Typical 2-class configurations with 48 J-class at 60-inch pitch, Typical airline flight profile and reserves, * Airbus estimate

315 passengers + baggage

331* pax & bags

A350-900 (250t)

Payload (kg)

Range (nm)


Unrivalled A350-1000 efficiency – a step change in efficiency

6,500 nm mission, 350 passengers

+ 40T MTOW

777-300ER

40t MTOW more than A350-1000

20 t structure

20 t fuel

LHR

SIN


A350-1000 vs. 777X.

777-9 190t OWE

777-300ER 175t OWE

-20 t

+15 t*

A350-1000 155t OWE

Clean sheet design

5th derivative

• 4-frame stretch

• Frame sculpting

• Bigger wing featuring

wtiFolding wings

• Engine upsize

• …

777-9 OWE

Up to 35t heavier than a

A350-1000 for

35 more seats


‘Comparable efficiencies

2.9l/pax/100km’

A350 XWB and 777 competitive position

Typical airline rules : A350-900 at 315 seats, A350-1000 at 369 seats, 777-9X at 405 seats (10 abreast),

777-8X at 342 seats (10abreast), 777-300ER at 365 seats (9 abreast), , (*) Airbus estimate

777-8*

777-9*

A350-800

Fuel burn per

seat

Fuel burn per trip

A350-900

777-300ER

Shaping

efficiency

A350-900

unmatched fuel

efficiency today

A350-1000 will be

one step further

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

A350-1000


50 new A380 orders in 2013

A380

25 deliveries

in 2013 Over 1.2M flight

hours and 50M

passengers

to date

304

firm orders

19

customers

182

backlog


Traffic will double in the next 15 years

Source: ICAO, Airbus

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032

Air traffic has doubled

every 15 years

Air traffic will double

in the next 15 years

Airbus

GMF 2013

ICAO

total traffic

World annual RPK (trillion)

4.4%

2022-2032

5.1%

2012-2022

4.7%

2012-2032


2012: 42 mega-cities

Source: GMF 2013; Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers, Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;

93% Of long-haul

traffic on routes

to/from/via 42

cities

42 Aviation

Mega-cites

0.8M Daily passengers:

long-haul traffic

to/from/via

Mega cities

Handling more than 10,000 long haul

passengers per day …

Long-haul traffic

Concentrated on a few main centres


2032: 89 mega-cities

Source: GMF 2013; Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers, Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;

Handling more than 10,000 long haul

passengers per day …

99% Of long-haul

traffic on routes

to/from/via 42

cities

89 Aviation

Mega-cites

2.2M Daily passengers:

long-haul traffic

to/from/via

Mega cities

Long-haul traffic

Concentrated on a few main centres


A380: The large aircraft of choice

Data to end 2013, Source: Airbus Orders & Deliveries, Boeing includes 9 747 VIP and 1 A380 VIP

A380

304 orders

72%

747-8

119 orders

28%

Net orders passenger and freighter

and VIP aircraft A380

72% market share


A380: The large aircraft of choice

Data to end 2013, Source: Airbus Orders & Deliveries, Boeing includes 9 747 VIP and 1 A380 VIP

A380

304 orders

86%

747-8

51 orders

14%

Net orders passenger

and VIP aircraft A380

86% market share Takes-off or lands

every 2 seconds


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Airbus Annual Press Conference - Leeham News … · Airbus Annual Press Conference 13 January 2014...

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