Airbus and the Middle East a story of history and future · Airbus and the Middle East a story of...
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Airbus and the Middle East Airbus and the Middle East a story of history and future a story of history and future Fouad Attar Head of Commercial, Airbus Middle East Muscat, 21 st October 2009
Transcript of Airbus and the Middle East a story of history and future · Airbus and the Middle East a story of...
Airbus and the Middle EastAirbus and the Middle Easta story of history and futurea story of history and future
Fouad AttarHead of Commercial, Airbus Middle East
Muscat, 21st October 2009
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Airbus, a global company … with global outreach
1 global company
3 customer support centres
4 training centres
5 spares centres
9 engineering design centres
13 manufacturing sites
20 languages
24 hour customer support (365 days a year)50 flight simulators
more than 88 nationalities
160 offices
312 customers250 resident customer support managers
315 operators
More than 5,500 aircraft delivered
52,000 employees
a world of cultural diversity
SEPT 2009
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Airbus, a long history
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Airbus, Middle East, example milestones
Source data: AIRBUS
A300Saudi Arabian‘84
A300Saudi Arabian‘84
A320 ‘92A310/A300 ’93/’94 Kuwait Airways
A320 ‘92A310/A300 ’93/’94 Kuwait Airways
A320 ‘91Egyptair
A320 ‘91Egyptair
A320 ’09Saudi Arabian
A320 ’09Saudi Arabian
A330 ’09Oman Air
A330 ’09Oman Air
A380 ’08Emirates
A380 ’08Emirates
A340-600 ’06Qatar Airways
A340-600 ’06Qatar Airways
A340-600 ’06Etihad
A340-600 ’06Etihad
A321 ’03MEA
A321 ’03MEA
A330 ’99Emirates
A330 ’99Emirates
Airbus OfficeDubai‘00
Airbus OfficeDubai‘00
Airbus Middle EastDubai‘06
Airbus Middle EastDubai‘06
A340 ‘94Gulf Air
A340 ‘94Gulf Air
A300Egyptair‘80
A300Egyptair‘80
A300PIA‘80
A300PIA‘80
A300Iranair‘80
A300Iranair‘80
A310Kuwait Airways‘83
A310Kuwait Airways‘83
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0989 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
A320 ‘90Royal Jordanian
A320 ‘90Royal Jordanian
A320 ‘92Gulf Air
A320 ‘92Gulf Air
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Middle East, a natural crossroads
Historical desire to link cities
Middle East a natural crossroads
Aviation became a natural means to provide link
Technology and aircraft development provide progressively more capable and efficient means of providing the links
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The Middle East is important for Airbus
253 361869
58585592
9338
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Deliveries In Operation Orders
Middle EastWorld
Middle East is important. Chart shows gross orders, deliveries, aircraft in operation.
SOURCE: AIRBUS, ORDERS AND DELIVERIES 30 SEP 2009
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The Middle East is important for Airbus
4.3%
6.5%
9.3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Deliveries In Operation Orders
Mid
dle
Eas
t as
% o
f wor
ld to
tal
In percentage terms, the importance is clearer.
Middle East traffic typically accounts for around 5% of World traffic.
SOURCE: AIRBUS, ORDERS AND DELIVERIES 30 SEP 2009
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GMF 2009 – The Middle East, change has been rapid
1976
2006Source: NASA
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Middle East, traffic growth
Middle East traffic growth has seen a steady rise in recent years.
In 2009, in contrast to other regions, Middle East traffic has shown growth.
But we must watch through remainder of 2009 and 2010.
Source:ICAO data / AirbusMiddle East traffic, domestic, international
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
pass
enge
r-km
per
form
ed (t
hous
ands
) Airbus observed trendAn approximate annual traffic growth rate of 12% p.a.
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Market share 1998-2008, MENA region
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
AirbusBoeing
Average
Approx 60%
Airbus has enjoyed a majority share of the MENA aircraft orders over the past few years
Source: Airbus orders and deliveries, www.boeing.com
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Aircraft sold in the MENA region 1998-2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
BoeingAirbus
290 aircraft in 9 years
722 aircraft in 2 years
Sales over the last two years have easily outstripped the past 9 yearsSource: Airbus orders and deliveries, www.boeing.com
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What has driven recent demand in the MENA region?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
BoeingAirbus
The ‘Big 3’ Gulf carriers – 272 aircraft ordered for fleet expansion
Dubai Aerospace with 200 orders – not all aircraft will necessarily go into the region
Recent start ups – Air Arabia, Jazeera, nasair, Fly Dubai with 144 orders between them
Altogether these accounted for 616 orders of the 722 orders – 85%
Source: Airbus orders and deliveries, www.boeing.com
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What has driven recent demand in the MENA region? Recent re-fleeting
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50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
BoeingAirbus
There has been quite a lot of re-fleeting also occurring within the region
Saudi Arabian, Royal Jordanian, Middle East Airlines, Tunis Air, Air Algerie, Egyptair, Gulf Air, Oman Air, Yemenia, Royal Air Maroc, Ethiopian Airlines, Libyan Airlines
But there is still a requirement for further replacements, in addition to future expansion
Source: Airbus orders and deliveries, www.boeing.com
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Location
A320 Familyrange
36% of worldpopulation
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Location, location
A320 Familyrange
A330-300range
36% of worldpopulation
86% of worldpopulation
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Location, location, location
A320 Familyrange
A330-300range
36% of worldpopulation
86% of worldpopulation
A380range
98% of population
Hub development (Emirates, Qatar, ETIHAD)
LCCs (Air Arabia, Jazeera, NAS, Air Blue, Nouvelair…)
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A320 Family, the Airlines’ choice in the region
Nile Air
A Backlog of almost A Backlog of almost 280280Nearly Nearly 130130 a/c in operationa/c in operation
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Middle East & Africa airline backlog, A330
Data end August 2009
In-service + Backlog
Emirates 29Qatar 29ETIHAD 16 + 8Gulf Air 10 + 20Egypt Air 7 + 5Air Algerie 5MEA 4Afriqiyah 1 + 2Air Mauritius 1 + 1Yemenia 1Saudia 8Oman 5Libyan 4Tunis Air 3
Total 103 + 56
A330-300range
86% of worldpopulation
A330-200 for route developmentA330-300 for lowest seat-costs
200 Firm Orders
from 16 Customers
6 A380
15 A380
10 A380
5 A380
10 A3804 a/c
5 A380
12 A380
58 A380
19 A380
5 A380
6 A380
1 A380
20 A380
6 A380
12 A380
10 A380
The future has arrivedThe future has arrived
All 3 alliances represented
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A350 XWB - 493 orders, 31 customers
Synergy Aerospace
24 Countries – 3 Alliances – 5 Leasing companies
End September 09
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Economists believe recession has bottomed out
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Strong growth
since 2004 Slowdown Deep crisis Recovery Completerecovery
-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3World USA Western EuropeJapan Other adv economies Emerging economies
Source: Global Insight (August 2009), Airbus
We are here
Real GDP year-over-year quarterly evolution (%)
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8000 nm
4500 nm
2500 nm
36% world population16% world GDP
86% world population63% world GDP
Middle East, literally at the centre of the world
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South Africa +645 %
North America+1270 %
Europe+123 % CIS
+137 %
Asia/Pacific+182 %
+100 %
Source: September ASK traffic from OAG
Passenger - ASKs - 2009 vs. 2000
Africa +212 %
2009 traffic to/from Middle East well above 2000 levels:172% overall ASK growth on seven main regional flows
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0
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Mon
thly
pas
seng
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(Mill
ions
)
DXB & AUH
Hubs in the region continue their impressive growth
Source: 4D, Airbus
+234% growth in less than 10 years
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Demographics favour Middle Eastern aviation growth
80+
70-79
60-69
50-59
40-49
30-39
20-29
10-19
0-9
25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15
ARAB WORLD EUROPE
Source: UN Population Division
Population by age, years, % of total, 2010 forecast
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Middle East will sustain very strong traffic growth
5.9%5.4%6.4%
20-year growth2019-20282009-2018
Middle East
4.7%4.8%4.6%
20-year growth2019-20282009-2018
World
North America8.2%
Africa8.7%
CIS6.0%
5.2%5.2%
Asia-Pacific6.1%
Europe5.7%
RPK growth: annual average 2009RPK growth: annual average 2009--20182018
Latin America7.9%
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Middle East passenger aircraft demand will be met by 1418 new and 221 recycled aircraft
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Beginning 2009 2028
Recycled(second hand A/c)
Total fleet: 1,681
323
1,095
221
Fleet size
42
Total fleet: 586
Stay in service(with initial operator)
Growth
Replaced
Passenger aircraft demand ≥100 seats, freighter demand excluded
1418new aircraft
US$243b
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Airbus and the Middle East, a story of history and future
Historical, a growing regionAirbus has strong relationships in the regionLong term prospects for the region look goodAirbus is committed to the region with key programmes (A380, A350)
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