Air Quality Forecasting in Europe
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Transcript of Air Quality Forecasting in Europe
Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008
Air Quality Forecasting in Europe
Henk Eskes
• European ensemble forecasts: GEMS and PROMOTE
• Air Quality forecasts for the Netherlands
Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008
GMES
http://www.gmes.info/
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GMES and atmospheric composition / air quality
GMES Atmospheric projects: PROMOTE (ESA) and GEMS (EU)
MACC (2009 onward)Follow-up of GEMS and
GMES Atmosphere ServiceCore service:
Atmospheric composition on global and European scale
Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008
OMI and PROMOTE http://www.gse-promote.org
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Greenhouse Gases (GHG)
Global Reactive Gases (GRG)
Aerosols (AER)
Regional Air Quality (RAQ)
Validation (VAL) Production (PRO)
GHG
GRG
AER
RAQ
GEMS subprojects
Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008
GEMS subproject: Regional Air Quality RAQ
• Production of regional forecasts of chemical species and air quality indices based on an ensemble of air-quality models on the European scale
AERGRGGHG
GEMS
global system
European Center of Medium Range Weather Forecasts
regionalair qualityarchives
GEMS web site
FRIUUK, Germany
SMHISweden
MetOffice, UK
CNRS,INERIS, France
FMI, Finland
FMI, Finland
DMI, Denmark
NKUA, Greece
ISAC, Italy
met.no, Norway
MeteoFrance, France
EURAD
MATCH
UMAQ
CHIMERE
SILAM
MATCH
CAC
UAM-V
BOLCHEM
EMEP
MOCAGE
European partner institutes
AERGRGGHG
GEMS
global system
AERGRGGHG
AERGRGGHG
GEMS
global system
European Center of Medium Range Weather Forecasts
regionalair qualityarchives
GEMS web siteGEMS web site
FRIUUK, Germany
SMHISweden
MetOffice, UK
CNRS,INERIS, France
FMI, Finland
FMI, Finland
DMI, Denmark
NKUA, Greece
ISAC, Italy
met.no, Norway
MeteoFrance, France
EURAD
MATCH
UMAQ
CHIMERE
SILAM
MATCH
CAC
UAM-V
BOLCHEM
EMEP
MOCAGE
European partner institutes
FRIUUK, Germany
SMHISweden
MetOffice, UK
CNRS,INERIS, France
FMI, Finland
FMI, Finland
DMI, Denmark
NKUA, Greece
ISAC, Italy
met.no, Norway
MeteoFrance, France
EURAD
MATCH
UMAQ
CHIMERE
SILAM
MATCH
CAC
UAM-V
BOLCHEM
EMEP
MOCAGE
European partner institutes
Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008
GEMS subproject: Regional Air Quality RAQ
Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008
GEMS subproject: Regional Air Quality RAQ
Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008
Satellite
Surface network
Assimilation
Air qualityprediction
Model
Data assimilation
Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008
• In NWP uncertainties in the initial state will diverge.
• In atmospheric chemistry (regional scale) the uncertainty is mainly related to uncertainty in model input data, physical parameterizations, or from gaps in our knowledge of the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere and its interaction with the surface. Impact of initial state rapidly decreases with increasing forecast period.
-> In NWP the assimilation should first of all optimise the initial state
-> In atmospheric chemistry the assimilation should target the model processes, e.g. optimise the emissions, boundary conditions, deposition ..
Advanced assimilation approaches needed:Ensemble Kalman filter and 4D-Var approaches most popular
Assimilation: NWP vs. Atmospheric Chemistry
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Assimilation: NWP vs. Atmospheric Chemistry
Courtesy: Hendrik Elbern, Köln
ForecastAnalysis
Initial-state
Initial-state + EmissionEmission
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Dutch SmogProg project, User Support Programme, NIVR, 2007-2008
• Aim: To replace the (simple) statistical AQ forecast now issued by RIVM• Collaboration of three Dutch institutes
RIVM, KNMI, TNO• Based on Dutch LOTOS-EUROS model, and French CHIMERE model• Region covering the Netherlands and surroundings (about 10 km resol)
Use high-resolution meteorological input, i.e. KNMI - HIRLAM • Assimilation of surface and satellite data
NO2 from OMI on EOS-Aura• First focus on ozone and precursors
• Project started beginning 2007l
Air quality forecasts for the Netherlands
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• Two-day ozone forecast available on the web (demo service)
http://www.lml.rivm.nl.nl
Air quality forecasts for the Netherlands
• Plan: become operational in May 2008
- ozone forecasts during summer.nl
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Daily variation in ozone: Chimère vs surface
4 Aug 2007 5 Aug 2007 6 Aug 2007
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OMI near-real time NO2, 13-16 October 2005
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Chimere @ OMI overpass time, 13-16 Oct 2005
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• LOTOS-EUROS + Ensemble Kalman FilterDeveloped at TNO / RIVM
• Interface between LE / Kalman,surface data and OMI-NO2 data available
• First experiments have started
Assimilation of satellite and surface data
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Wang et al, GRL 2007
Pepijn Veefkind
Is OMI NO2 related to concentrations at surface ?
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Cities of the size >100,000 habitantsCities of the size >100,000 habitants
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• In a few years there will be operational systems in place for tropospheric composition and air quality forecasting / monitoring / reanalyses, similar to what is in place now for NWP
Europe: GMES Atmosphere Service
• These systems rely on high-quality observational data on especially the troposphere and boundary layer composition:
both in-situ (surface networks, aircraft, ..) and from satellites
• Sustainability preferred: operational satellites (such as sentinels 4 and 5)development of assimilation is long-term investment
• High spatial resolution important especially for regional AQModel resolution on European domain will be around 10 km or betteremission distribution very irregular (points, lines), chemistry non-linear
• Multiple observations/day and (near) global coverage of importance fordiurnal cycle of air pollution, daily monitoring, major events (dust/fire/transport)
TROPOMI measures key compounds (O3, NO2, CO, CH4, HCHO, SO2, ..)A TROPOMI - post EnviSat / Aura - would be major component of the GAS
Conclusions
Eskes, TROPOMI workshop, Mar 2008
That's all