AIR CONDITIONING IMPACTS ANDSTRATEGIES IN MEXICO

October, 2018

International Energy Analysis Dept

CHINA

INDIA

INDONESIA

SOUTH AFRICA

CHILE

ARGENTINA

• Established 2016 at CEM7 in SF• Michael McNeil Director• Alberto Diaz Gonzalez, Program

Manager

MEI seeks to play an important role in supporting Mexico's transition to greater

clean energy production, more efficient use of energy and

aggressive carbon emissions reductions.

Berkeley Lab Mexico Energy Initiative

MEI

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Sponsors

CollaboratorsMexico Energy Initiative

Cooling

Energy Demand Modeling

Scientific Exchange

Projects and Partners

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• Cooling Electricity about 5 TWh in August• Residential Load is Sharpest, even though only 14% of households use AC• Large Commercial and Medium Industry (Hourly > 1 kV) Broad and High

Air Conditioning already drives summer electricity demand in Mexico 4

• Winter and Summer load curve very similar in temperate balance zones

• Lighting peak around 20-22h

• Strong effect from cooling in warm load zones. Two distinct peaks at 5 PM and 1 AM

• Peak Cooling Load is about 7.5 GW

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Cooling�Electricity�by�State

Annual�Cooling�Use�(TWh)

Annual�Cooling�Use�per�User�(MWh)

Air Conditioning load not evenly distributed geographically, or in time

• Overall and per user cooling both highest in Sonora

• Top 5 states use half of the total cooling

• Maximum cooling is nearly 10 times the median

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2015 2025 2035 2045GW

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Residential�Cooling�Load�Projection

Projected�Cooling�Peak Adoption�(Income)Population Usage�(Income�+�C.C.)2016�Winter�System�Peak

Ownership�Rate�(units�per�HH) � 2014 2030 2050Ownership�Rate 14% 24% 45%Households�(millions) 31.7 38 48Cooling�Capacity�per�Household�(kW) 5.25 6.30 7.88Efficiency�(W/W) 3.0 3.5 4.0Climate�Change�Usage�Factor 1.0 1.1 1.2Coincidence�Factor 0.75 0.75 0.75Residential�Cooling�Load�(GW) 6.0 13.5 38.0

Air Conditioning load expected to grow dramatically over time

• Ownership rate contributes factor of 3• More and bigger units per HH, some increase in EE• Climate change likely to drive cooling up in coming

decades• High coincidence (75%) leads to cooling load of 6 GW,

explaining most of the nighttime peak• Total growth by 2050 over 6x – to level higher than

2016 winter peak

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• Equipment Efficiency Standards - Rapidly adopt the best available air conditioning technologies on the market through Mexico’s NOM’s.

• Voluntary Programs - Develop and disseminate ultra-low energy alternatives to current technologies through voluntary programs such as labeling, rebates, early replacement programs and public information campaigns.

• Technology R&D - Develop alternative cooling technologies such as evaporative cooling and solar-assisted cooling for the Mexican market and deploy them through industry partnerships.

• Building Envelope Best Practices - Lower cooling load with improved construction and retrofits through mandatory building codes and private sector initiatives.

• Cool Solar Reflective Coatings - Lower cooling load by reducing solar heat gain through cool roofs and other reflective coatings.

• Smart Design and Operation - Employ advanced construction, integrated design, user behavior and smart controls to reduce or eliminate cooling loads and respond to peak loads and electricity prices.

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Residential Cooling Efficiency Targets

Elements of a Cooling Strategy

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Next Step - Community of Practice Network / Website / Media

• Update Fixed Speed Minisplit AC Standard

• Develop Commercial AC Standard

• Develop Non-Regulatory Programs

• Improve Evaluation Data Components

Mexico Cooling Summit – February 2018

Mexico City

Recent and Upcoming Activities

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THANK YOU MAMcNeil@lbl.gov

mexico.lbl.gov

@lbnl_mexico

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