Ai Term Paper

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4/19/2012

TOPIC :- How intelligent machines can be harmful to human kind | | Jatinder Rana

LOVELY

PROFESSIONAL

UNIVERSITY

TERM PAPER

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE


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TERM PAPER

CAP- 610 Artificial Intelligence

TOPIC:- How intelligent machines can be harmful to human kind

COURSE INSTRUCTOR:-Miss Kamaljeet Kaur COURSE TUITOR:- Miss Kamaljeet Kaur

COURSE CODE:-CAP-610 STUDENT ROLL-NO.:- A10

SECTION NO:-D1803

DECLARATION:-

I declare that this TERM PAPER is my individual work. I have not copied

from any other students work or from any other source except where you acknowledgement is

made explicitly in the text nor has any part being written for me by another person.

EVALUATORS COMMENT:- STUDENTS SIGNATURE:

Jatinder Kumar

MARKS:-

OUT OF:-


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Acknowledgement

First and foremost, we would like to thank to our respected teacher Miss

Kamaljeet Kaur for the valuable guidance and advice. She inspired us greatly

to work in this project. Her willingness to motivate us contributedtremendously to our project.

We also would like to thank her for showing us some example that related to

the topic of our project.

Besides, we would like to thank the authority of lovely professional university

(LPU) for providing us with a good environment and facilities to complete thisproject.


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CONTENTS

Introduction

Comparison of humans and androids

Is super intelligence dangerous or not? (No)

How will super intelligence arise in machines (orandroids)?

When will super intelligence arise in machines (orandroids)?

Conflicts arising between androids and humans

Dangerous human behaviors

How would androids or machines try to eliminate humans?


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Introduction

Before one can begin such a discussion, we need to understand the terms we

are using. There are three terms in our question which need examination:

superintelligent, machines, and danger.

Superintelligent: Intelligence is the ability to learn and to solve problems -

not to be confused with knowledge which is simply the regurgitation of facts.So superintelligence could be taken to be a greatly superior ability to solveproblems - or perhaps even to recognize problems. What I mean by this is thatyou can hardly begin to solve a problem if you don't even recognize that aproblem exists. For example, how long was it after Newton's law of gravity waspublished before humans recognized that it didn't fully explain some observedphenomena (apart from simply bad observational data).

Machines:This may refer to individual androids or machines or groups ofmachines working together. It seems likely that sooner or later the androidswill utilize the internet to work together to solve problems in the same way

that thousands of PCs have been utilized to work on the SETI problem. By useof the internet, androids will be able to share their discoveries and to assignsub-problems to other androids or machines or groups of machines. Also byuse of the internet, what one android knows could be known by all within a fewseconds assuming they have sufficient memory space locally to hold theinformation.

Danger: Practically anything can pose "a danger" to individuals, but fewthings pose "a danger" to humanity. Among these are such things as: nuclearwar (1), a giant meteor colliding with the Earth (4), AIDS (2), a pandemic ofsmallpox or anthrax (1), an unknown new pathogen (2), global pollution (3),

elimination of oxygen from the oceans (4), other unknown super weapons (3),and so on. The numbers in parentheses indicate my estimation of the threatlevel where each higher number indicates a threat level at least 10 timeslower. The actual threat posed by a level one (1) "threat" is hard to estimate.Many people believe that the Cuban missile crisis brought the world close tonuclear war. I blame both sides for the Cuban missile crisis, but I doubt thatthe actual threat ever was higher than perhaps 1 in 1000. I believe it iscurrently much less - perhaps 1 in 1,000,000.


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2)Comparison of humans and androids

I think it is useful to compare the two "species" to help understand our primaryquestion. What are the basic needs, desires, and fears of humans as compareto androids?

Need/ desire/ fear Human Android (or machine)

food yes nowater yes noair yes yes (needed for pneumatics but not forbreathing)electricity no yes (critical need)sex yes nolove yes nosleep yes nofamily yes no

friends yes nopleasure yes perhaps (but its not clear what qualifies)leisure yes no (androids will likely have lots of leisuretime)clothes yes perhaps (only for humans' benefit)money yes yes (once they become autonomous)power often perhaps (power over other androids orhumans in their care)sickness yes noinjury yes perhaps (they may be temporarily out ofoperation)

death yes no

Immediately you notice that androids (or machines) have few of the basicneeds or desires that humans have. Perhaps the most important is the fact


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that we humans eventually die whereas the androids will not die. What atremendous advantage they have - androids are immortal.

3) Is super intelligence dangerous or not? (No)

It is not obvious that the behavior of a super intelligence can be predicted withconfidence. But will it be dangerous? It seems to me that the evidence pointsto the contrary. The evidence is of course the behavior of human geniuses.Take for example Isaac Newton, Albert Einstein, or Stephen Hawking. Each ofthese men was (is) a genius with raw intelligence far above the averagehuman being. However, none of these men became dangerous in any sense.I believe that having very high intelligence generally means that you are ableto solve the problems which you face more easily than other people. We livein a (mostly) civilized world. People learn very quickly that simply trying toobtain what you want through crime is very unlikely to be successful in thelong run. And if you are super intelligent you will be able to obtain what youwant without having to resort to criminal behavior or violence. I doubt thatyou could find any person who is both a Nobel prize winner and a criminal.

Conversely, who are the really dangerous people? They are generallydictators or tyrants in positions of great political power who use their positionto cause millions of people to die. The obvious examples are people like MaoZedong, Joseph Stalin, Adolph Hitler, Pol Pot, Kim Jong Il, and Saddam Husain.They clearly did NOT use super intelligence to accomplish those horrors.Today however, there are super weapons available (or on the drawing board)which allow the possibility of much greater horrors. Namely the killing ofsignificant percentages of all people on Earth. The most obvious example isnuclear war which is becoming more and more likely with each additional(unstable) member of the nuclear club.

No doubt super intelligent machines have lots of special features ,power andadvantage over human beings, which used in a wrong way can be very


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destructible ,harmful for all spices on earth. But the primary sentence is thatsuper intelligent machines cant do anything on their own. its all human beingwho is responsible for all of his actions because he/she is the one whocreated ,coded and using super intelligent machines. There are lots ofcommon things available today for helping purpose but if used in a wrong

way then will be very harmful . For example :-electricity is discovered for lightening but one can also use it for killingsomeone by giving electrical socks. So in my point of view is human being whois dangerous not super intelligent machines .

4)How will super intelligence arise in machines (or androids)?

It seems likely that the first person or group to accomplish this will make a lotof money from it. Since this super intelligence will be able to solve difficultproblems (or easy ones), many people will be willing to pay a lot of money forthe solution to their problems. Imagine aircraft companies who are looking foran advanced engine which would allow them to fly at Mach 6( six times

the speed of sound) or Mach 1). How much would that answer be worth? I canassure you it would be worth many millions. But perhaps it is impossible.Perhaps there is no such engine. What about an underwater breathingapparatus which would allow humans to roam freely on the ocean bottomregardless of the depth of water? What about the perpetual motion machine?It has been thought to be impossible for decades, but is it really impossible?How many alien civilizations exist in the universe? Where are they? How faraway is the closest one? What caused the big bang? Does God exist? Clearlya super intelligence could be extremely useful.

There are hundreds of researchers around the world who are working on

artificial intelligence. But, they have not yet produced a viable superintelligence. There are a couple of tantalizing examples - such as the DeepBlue chess program which beat world chess champion, Gary Kasparov, in a 6game match in the spring of 1997.. This chess program plays extremely highlevel chess; however, it is really just a giant search routine. Deep Bluesearches over 200 million moves per second.. It evaluates each position andmakes its choice of move based on the evaluation algorithm set up by itsauthors. But it this super intelligence? NO, clearly it isn't. A human


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grandmaster evaluates fewer than 1000 positions in selecting his moves.Thus it is clear that humans have a vastly superior search and evaluationscheme than a brute force method which searches millions of positions.

Some people believe that speed alone will produce super intelligence. I do

not. There are many other factors which are required to produce superintelligence. For example, you need an intimate knowledge of the subjectmatter related to the problem you are trying to solve. You must be widelyread and have a true understanding of the problem. This is true because thesolution may hinge upon a fact or idea from a related but significantly differentfield or even a totally different field. Often a key fact or idea is missing fromthe available information. The real genius is able to think up this missing ideaor missing piece of the puzzle. This is perhaps the key area where speed willbe nearly useless. In order to create a super intelligence we mustunderstand the process of thinking up and generating newhypotheses. But,how can we know if the answer we are searching for is

actually possible? What about the problem of interstellar travel? The distancebetween galaxies is so tremendous that we currently have no possible way toreach the closest spiral galaxy outside the Milky Way (Andromeda which is 2.2million light years away). Do "worm-holes" actually exist? Can space befolded as in the Dune novel? These are questions which humans havestruggled with for decades and have not solved. Perhaps no solution exists.

Many years ago a lot of work in the field of AI was devoted to a GeneralProblem Solver. There was a program written at MIT which solved freshmancalculus problems. But, solving calculus problems is a relatively limited areaand one which is unlikely to produce any new inventions or innovations (what

do I know).

I believe that Einstein's theory of relativity provides a good example of howintelligence works. Before 1900 most people thought that Newton's theory ofgravity was correct. But, there were a few things which Newton's theory didnot account for. One of those was the precession of the orbit of Mercury.Suffice it to say that the rate of precession of the orbit of Mercury could not beaccounted for with Newtonian physics. There were also the so-called Lorentztransforms. The Lorentz transforms which form the heart of Einstein's 1905special theory of relativity were previously deduced from very differentconceptual bases first by Voigt in 1887 and later by Lorentz. Finally, there was

the speed of light. When men first tried to measure the speed of light, theydiscovered that it was so fast that they could not measure it. Some thought itwas instantaneous. By 1880, the speed of light had been measured to within1% of it currently accepted value. Einstein is famous for his "thoughtexperiments". This I think is the key to intelligence. How do you come upwith "thought experiments"? How do you gather together all of the aboveinformation (and more) and come up with a new theory called "The Theory ofRelativity"? Why is the speed of light an upper limit? Why can't you go twice


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the speed of light? It will not be easy to build a super intelligence. One of myfavorite aphorisms is "all the easy stuff has already been done".

5) When will superintelligence arise in machines (or androids)?

My prediction is within 10 years. As mentioned above there are hundreds ofresearchers working on this problem all over the world. Computers are gettingmore and more powerful which allows search algorithms to explore more andmore possibilities - and gives an apparent increase in intelligence. Butcurrently nobody seems to have the "real" solution. Or if they do, they are notletting on to it. Researchers are lothe to reveal all their secrets - and who canblame them, because the solution to this problem is likely to be very valuable.They want to file patents or simply keep the field to themselves for as long aspossible. Why would you give away a secret which will earn millions for you?

6) Conflicts arising between androids and humans

How could conflicts arise between androids and humans? The most obviousseems to be the strong likelihood that androids will displace humans from theirjobs. The result may be attempts by some humans to destroy androids.Androids themselves may not be able to prevent themselves from beingdamaged - but since they are immortal, they can be repaired and thusresurrected. However, the androids' owners will not want their androids to bedamaged since they purchased the androids and they represent a significantinvestment. This may lead to a heightened fear in some androids but probably

not a significant problem for humans in general. But, since androids have TV-eyes, they will undoubtedly record good pictures of the humans who tried todestroy them. Therefore, those individuals will be prosecuted and will beremoved from the threat pool.

What about the androids' point of view. If the android is operational at all, thatmeans that his primary "needs" are being satisfied (air for pneumatics &electricity). It seems to me that androids will not need family or friends as wedo. In fact it appears that only if you assume that androids develop feelingsand emotions that you could suppose that they would have need of friends orfamily or love.

Why then would one or more androids decide that they wanted to attack orotherwise cause harm to humans? Clearly their primary needs for air andelectricity are being provided by humans. One would think that this wouldengender gratitude not enmity. As we have seen above, they have very fewneeds. Perhaps we could list some human behaviors which might possibly beconsidered dangerous (planet threatening) by androids or machines.


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7) Dangerous human behaviors

1. Polluting the lakes, rivers, and oceans.2. Polluting the air.3. Polluting the land.

4. Overpopulating the world5. Eliminating many entire species of animalsEtc

We humans of course also recognize these behaviors as undesirable - and inmany cases we are trying to stop them. While it is obvious that eliminatinghumans will stop all of these behaviors, it is not clear how some renegadeandroids would first, come to that conclusion and second, how they might tryto accomplish it. It would seem to me that there are many solutions to theseproblems which are less drastic than eliminating humans. Furthermore, ifandroids or machines develop super intelligence they should also be able tosuggest other solutions, perhaps many other solutions. Since most humans

want the problems solved, it seems reasonable that if androids came up withbetter solutions than humans have thought of, we would certainly give theirsolutions a try.

8) How would androids or machines try to eliminate humans?

It seems clear that simply trying to eliminate us one by one through some kindof combat would be a poor plan since word would spread fast and we wouldsimply pull the plug on them. Conversely, it would appear to me that the most

likely form of attack would be multiple pathogens. Since androids are notvulnerable to such pathogens, they could come in contact with them withoutfear. They could disseminate them widely and attack many population centersaround the world at the same time thereby infecting and killing millions orperhaps billions - perhaps everyone. Obviously a human terrorist organizationmight come to the same conclusion and if they have sufficient suicidal zealotsavailable they may be able to accomplish this horrendous goal. Let us hopethey do not try.


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