Agustin del Prado agustin.delprado@bc3research.orgBasque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)http://www.bc3research.org/en/agustin_del_prado.html@AgusBC3

Regional challenges to the UK sheep sector (including impacts on Greenhouse Gas emissions from sheep

systems)

1

Innovations to improve sustainability in the sheep and goat sector. An iSAGE training course and an iSAGE workshop. Wood Hall Hotel & Spa, Linton, Wetherby, West Yorkshire, UK

With help from BC3, Phil Stocker (NSA), Cled Thomas (EEAP) and Georgios Arsenos (AUTH)

Achieving net zero emissions by2050 (or before)

2

Achieving net zero emissions by2050 (or before)

3

4

Methane-the evil

5

Source: FAO Source: FAO

Is it sensible to consider all GHG together?

6

“To stabilise global temperatures, emissions of long-lived gases like CO2 must be reduced to net-zero. Emissions of short-lived gases like methane must be stabilised, but need not reach net-zero”.

7

8

GHG emissions from UK Sheep

9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mt

CO

2-e

/yr

sheep-enteric-CH4 sheep-manure-CH4 sheep-N2O

source: UK GHG inventory

CH4 emissions from UK Sheep

10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mt

CO

2-e

/yr

sheep-enteric-CH4 sheep-manure-CH4

0.7% annual reduction (averaged)

Aggregated CH4 from sheep (GWP)

11

Warming effect by UK sheep (GWP)

12

warming

13

Aggregated CH4 from sheep (GWP*)

Based on Cain et al. (2019)

14

Aggregated CH4 from sheep(GWP*)

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Mt

CO

2-w

e/yr

(ag

greg

ated

)

year

(GWP*)

Series2

cooling

warming

Based on Cain et al. (2019)

15

Potential pathways for biogenic sheepCH4 in the UK

SCENARIOS Annualreduction

Short-term reductionin period (2005-2030)

Medium-termreduction in period (2005-2050)

No change (2018-) 0% 0% 0%

Small reduction 0.3% 5% 11%

Medium reduction 0.5% 7% 16%

Ambitious reduction 1% 13% 29%

Very ambitiousreduction

2% 24% 49%

Small increase -0.3% 3% 9%

Medium increase -0.5% 5% 16%

Warming effect: Pathways with CH4

reduction

16

-8.E-05

-6.E-05

-4.E-05

-2.E-05

0.E+00

20

05

20

08

20

11

20

14

20

17

20

20

20

23

20

26

20

29

20

32

20

35

20

38

20

41

20

44

20

47

20

50

war

min

g (K

)

year

no change since 2018 change -0.3% change -0.5%

change -1% change -2%

-0.3%-0.5%

-1%

-2%

Based on Cain et al. (2019)

cooling

17

-4.E-05

-2.E-05

0.E+00

2.E-052

00

5

20

08

20

11

20

14

20

17

20

20

20

23

20

26

20

29

20

32

20

35

20

38

20

41

20

44

20

47

20

50

war

min

g (K

)

year

increase 0.3% increase 0.5%"

warming

0.3%

0.5%

Based on Cain et al. (2019)

cooling

Warming effect: Pathways with CH4

increase

18

0E+00

2E-05

4E-05

6E-05

8E-05

1E-04

1E-04

1E-042

00

5

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

20

19

20

21

20

23

20

25

20

27

20

29

20

31

20

33

20

35

20

37

20

39

20

41

20

43

20

45

20

47

20

49

war

min

g (K

)

year

no change since 2018 change -0.3%

change -0.5% change -1%

change -2% change 2%

Warming!!

Warming effect: if Pathways wererefered to fosil CO2 emissions

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Warming!!

Warming effect: if Pathways wererefered to fosil CO2 emissions

Cooling!!

Novel mitigation measures (CH4)

In vitro (Kinley et al., 2016; Vucko et al., 2017; Maia et al., 2017)In vivo: UC Davis (US)

Duin et al. (2016) Proc Natl Acad Sci 31;113(22):6172-7

Seaweed

3-nitrooxypropanol (NOP)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Feed bought

carcass sold(tonnes)

CO2-e

NH3-N

NOx-N

NO3-N leach

BASELINE ROA-gene

Innovations-ROA allele (increases prolificacy)

21

Modelled with

Del Prado et al. (2019)

Important to include SOC sequestration

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

FSI.1 FSI.2 FSI.3 LSI.4 LSI.5 LSI.6 LSE.7 LSE.8 LSE.9 LSE.10 LSE.11 LSE.12

kg

CO

2eq

/kg

FP

CM

SOC ( grasslands)

Other inputs (pesticides

Energy (oil +electricity)

Mineral fertilizers

Feed purchased

Indirect emissionssoil (N2O)

Direct emissionssoil (N2O)

Manuremanagement

Entericfermentation CH4

2.61.9

1.7

2.6 1.32.4

2.6

0.7

0.2 2.2

1.5

4.1

Batalla et al. (2015)

Ca

rbo

nse

qu

estr

ati

on

Grass-fed sheep Systems

22

However, these mitigation options shouldbe accounted for in national inventories

23

CH4 uncertainties (other sources)

24

landfills Leaky pipelines Shale gas

CH4 uncertainties-sinks

25

Aprox 4 Tg CH4 yr−1 uptake in grassland soils during 1981-2010.

(This is aprox. 2% of all GHG livestock estimate from FAO, globally)

Take homes• La intensificación mediante mejora en la eficiencia del

animal no conlleva necesariamente una menor huella de C ,ni una mejora en la rentabilidad de la explotación.

• Esta mejora en la productividad puede estar motivando (directa o indirectamente) una mayor incidencia negativa en la longevidad y fertilidad de los animales.

• Es importante que se valore el potencial de la producción ganadera en rumiantes respecto a su capacidad de producir proteina animal a partir de biomasa que no compite en la cadena alimentaria humana.

• Sheep and goats in the UK have caused no additional warming to the atmosphere

• Farmers can mitigate GHG with differentinterventions in the farm

• Main strategy should be to keep and movetowards high Production standards

26

Innovations to improve sustainability in the sheep and goat sector. An iSAGE training course and an iSAGE workshop. Wood Hall Hotel & Spa, Linton, Wetherby, West Yorkshire, UK

ThanksAgustin del Prado agustin.delprado@bc3research.orgBasque Centre for Climate Change (BC3)http://www.bc3research.org/en/agustin_del_prado.html@AgusBC3

With help from BC3 team, Phil Stocker (NSA), Cled Thomas (EEAP) and Georgios Arsenos (AUTH)