THE INDIAN EXPRESS, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 20 20

AGRITRADE

·Faltering again India's farm exports have fallen this year even as imports are up

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HARISH DAMODARAN NEW DELHI, FEBRUARY 13

INDIA'S AGRICULTURAL trade surplus has narrowed in the current fiscal, with exports falling alongside rising imports.

According to the latest Commerce Ministry data, total farm exports during April­December 2019, atS 2632 billion stood 7!Jl, lower than theS 28.59 billion for the fl/'Stnine monthsof2018-19. At the same time, imports went up 4.1 % from $ 16.08 billion to S16.75 billion As a result, the country's agricultural trade surplus has reduced from S 12.51 billion in April-December 2018 to S 9.58 billion in April-December 2019.

India's agri exports peaked atS4325 bil­lionin2013-14andplungedto$33.70billion by 2016-17, followingacrash in international commoditypJices. The same period also wit­nessed ajump in imports from S 15.53 billion to S 25.64 billion and a corresponding shrink­age in the farm trade surplus from S 27.72 bil­lion to S 8.05 billion. This trend was partly re­versed thereafter. By 2018-19, exports had recovered to S 3920 biUion and with imports, too, dropping to $ 20.92 billion the surplus widened to $1828 billion. But that revival has been reversed yet again in the first three quarters of2019-20.

Table 1 shows that shipments ofmostagri­commodities from India have registered a de­dine during April-December 2019 relative to the previous year. The sharpest dip has taken place ina1tooand rice, especiaJIynon-basmati grain. In cotton the country has, for the first timesince200405,tumed a net importer. 1m­ports of the fibre, at $122 billion (table 2), ex­ceededexportsofSS28.6SmiUion. This isa tar cryfromtheaJl-tirne-highexportsofS433biI­lion achieved in2011-12, whichpJurornetedto $1.62 billion by2016-17 and edged upto$2.10 billion in 2018-19, before nose-diving afresh.

As far as rice goes, the best year for India was2017-18, when itshippedout 128.75 Jakh tonnes (It~ That induded 88.18 It of non-bas­mati (valued at $ 3.64 billion) and 4057 It of ba.srnati ($4.17 billion below the 2013-14 high of$4.86billion~

However, this fiscal has seen a dip in both ! bas~ aoonon-basrnati ItlIp,orts,.Basmatj " .,

rice exports have takena hit, paiticular to Iran dJ,lC to payme n t problems arising from us

, san<;tipJ)s;:~.::'1Certainty ::--JIIl",qccp,,!)te!! , ; forSl.56biUionoutoflndia's$4.71 biUiOiibas- . mati exports in 2018-19 - has worsened after the killing of the Islamic nation's top military commanderbyaUSairstrikeearlylastmonth. Indiannon-basmatirice goes mainlytoAl'riGin countries, which have, of late ,found it cheaper to buy from China, Vietnam and Thailand. The situation should improve somewhat with the ongoing Coronavirus epidemic, which has revived demand for grain from India

India, in 2011-12, emerged as the world's No. 1 rice exporter and also came dose to at­taining that status in cotton (after the US). Further, in 2014, the country became the biggest bovine meat exporter. While India is still thelargestshipper of rice, it has now been relegated to No. 3 position in cotton (behind the US and Brazil) as well as bovine meat (after Brazil and Australia). Buffalo meat exports, which surged from a mere S 341.43 millionto$4.78 billionbetween2003-04and 2014-15, have since slipped In $ 359 billion in 2018-19 and continued their slide this fiscal. Even rnarine products, which had a good run and reached S 739 billion in 2017 -18, have lost momentum Guar-gum and oil-meals are the other major exports that are today a pale shadow of their peaks of $ 3.92 billion and $3.04billion,respectively achieved in 2012-13.

The only two agri-commodities to have

TABLE 1: INDIA'S EXPORT OF AGRICIlTURALCOMMODITIES ;;;~~ (IN MILUON DOLlARS) !' ; ;;9~

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2013-14 2016-17 2017-18 2016-19 ApH)ec ~~ii lO18 2019 ,l,),j' .

Marine products 5016.46 5903.06 7389.22 6802.56 5408.01 5455.62 .. _· Basmati rice 4864.69 3208.6 4169.56 4712.44 3065.09 2977.46 Buffalo meat 4350.23 3903.49 4037.11 3587.15 2768.74 2518.26 Noo-Basrnati rice 2925.05 2525.19 3636.6 3038.16 2289.62 1452.85 Spices 2497.22 2851.95 3115.37 3322.45 2406.38 2810.9 ... -Raw Cotton 3637.53 1621.11 1894.25 2104.41 1504.22 528.65 ·· .. :;1

Fruits & Vegetables* 1563.88 1684.51 1687.59 1732.21 1147.48 995.46i :8

Oilseeds** 1291.67 1355.23 1174.35 1156.76 859.37 941.431( · ' j

Oilmeals 2796.34 805.45 1093.16 1508.65 1037.35 644.03, :,T Castoroil 725.68 674.73 1043.99 883.78 549.19 706.24- .• -Coffee 798.8 842.84 968.57 822.34 581.24 543.21 ~ ·....c:..

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Tobacco 1011.35 958.69 934.25 981.34 732.16 716.04 ... :.:'.:.. . Processed F& V 760.16 848.36 929.79 933.61 681.19 693.44",' ,T '

Cashew 848.65 793.49 927.47 658.3 510.17 439.65'; ·," 8

Tea 798.76 731.26 837.36 ' 830.93 615.81 656.46 ,; .. "q t

Sugar 1177.03 1290.71 810.9 1360.29 812.99 1179.81L'.:i:;- ...

Guargum meal 1979.63 463.35 646.94 674.88 493.18 360.89: . ':.. ; Dairy products 727.52 253.73 303.05 481.55 327.96 221.32 Other Cereals 1204.11 212.3 248.59 348.97 283.14 149.83 ., ~';

Wheat 1569.03 66.85 96.72 60.24 38.04 44.87 ',;'J-

TOTAL- 43251.66 33696.83 38897.21 39203.53 28590.72 26320.84 .

'Includes seeds; "Includes groundnut, sesame and niger; "'Includes ocher fann commodities ;;;;1 . ,.,~ ~

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TABLE 2: INDIA'S IMPORT OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES" '.2::. ",.,.,,,,; ! ,j'''''''''tlN MILLION DOLLARS), .. ,;

'"---" .. ~ .. 2\ltH4. ~016-17 2011"18 . .20.18-1.9. . Apr-Oac Apr-Dec. . .- 1--' "1-;"'.,' , , .. '.' ' . ~ ~. r . 2018 2019 ":'

Vegetable oils 7249.85 10892.75 11637.48 9890.32 7481.27 7252.67 .. ;: ._.-

Pulses 1828.16 4244.13 2908.33 1140.76 798.58 1163.09 Fresh fruits 1273.44 1682.88 1942.92 1987.5B 1504.B7 1424.2~

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Cashew 774.12 1347.13 1419.51 1610.56 1494.42 1028.76 - '.'- .-

Raw Cotton 394.47 946.88 979.32 633.05 507.38 1218.72 ., i Spices 571.36 858.95 990.7 1135.44 798.48 1141.21 Sugar 392.18 1021.81 936.52 449.03 426.87 287.52 ···· ... ]

Natural Rubber 906.41 652.57 829.15 873.26 705.97 567.93.: . ~ . .:;,. Wheat 4.42 1268.64 364.5 0.77 0.77 0.59 I TOTAL* 15528.94 25643.4 24890.9 20920.34 16083.27 16745.44-h

'Includes ocher farm commodities. Sourre: Department of Commerce .',~ .... ~.~

posted significant growth in 2018-19 as well as the current fiscal are sugar and spices. Sugar exports in 2019-20 are on course to match their previous 2011-12 record ofSl.84 billion - thanks largely toa govemment sub­sidyofuptoRs 10.448 per tonne (it was ap­proximately Rs 11,500 in the 2018-19 season ~ In spices,lndia has. interestingly, emerged as both a big exporter as well as importer of spices. The top threecontJibutors to thecoun­try's spices exports in 2018-19werechilli (vaI­ued at Rs 5,411.17 crore), mint products (Rs 3.749.33 crore) and cumin (Rs 2,884.80 crore).Jn contrast, its imports of sO<alled tra­ditional plantation spices - pepper and car-

... [,I: !iOIIIJI

damom - now exceed exports.

imports soared from $ toS424bi1lionin2016-17.WilthhimE!f<l tic production. in response to the Modi government damped quantitative restrictions, apart from raising tariffs, oiJ iM­ports.lt led to pulses imports falling to ~iJ:'I billionin2018-19.A lower2019 kharifrni(f~ prompted the government to allow more im1 ports, which is also reflected in the data for April-December. However, edible oil importS are setlnileclineforasecondconsecul:MiY<'¥. fromtheS 11.64biIlionlevelof2017-18.: '

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