AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Kyoto Protocol enters into force on Feb 16,...

AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT

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Kyoto Protocol enters into force on Feb 16, 2005

Countries celebrating

40

140 countries have ratified

USA and Australia not yet

China, India and Brazil exempted

Nepal wins US $ 25 millions


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IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON FOOD SECURITY OF NEPAL

By:

Kishore Sherchan

(A scenario based analysis)

Area Production and Yield of Rice in Nepal

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AREA PRODUCTION AND YIELD OF WHEAT IN NEPAL

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AREA PRODUCTION AND YIELD OF MAIZE IN NEPAL

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AREA PRODUCTION AND YIELD OF POTATO IN NEPAL

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Area, production and yield Rice: Wheat:

Maize: Potato:


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Climate Change Impact


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VARIATION IN ENSO AND RICE YIELD IN NEPAL

Impact of cold wave on winter crop yields in the Terai of Nepal, 1997/98.

Year Potato Toria Sarson Rayo Lentil Chickpea

1987/88 539 1320

1988/89 703 563 728

1989/90 25.54 503 844 819 709

1990/91 19.72 570 912

1991/92 22.28 949

1992/93 17.36

1993/94 22.13 712 785 601 1044

1994/95 23.76 718 524 548

1995/96 17.21 760 636 565

1996/97 22.63 815 803 887 959 922

Mean 21.33 747 569 733 807 999

1997/98 15.39 474 505 513 504 619

% Reduction 27.8 36.5 11.2 30.0 37.6 38.0


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Methodology: Model DSSAT Ver. 3.5 EXCEL ARCVIEW

Data Average of 10 to 30 years of daily weather data (Tmax, Tmin, Srad and Rain) from 30-40 locations. Soil data of Nepal available from LRMP 1986 and

NARC. Crop management data from NARC Agricultural statistics from MOAC and CBS.


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Zoning (3 x 5)

Three agro-ecological zonings (Terai, Hill and Mountain).

Five development regions.

Climate Scenario (9)

Ambient

2CO2 : 580ppm

Temperature : 580ppm + 1oC, +2 oC, +4 oC

Rain : + 20%

Crop yield : Actual and Potential

Model StructureAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT

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specification of codes for genotype, soil & weather Optional sections depending on experiment type & model capability Performance Data Files Output Files Depending on Option Settings and Settings and Simulation Applications

EXP.LST

FILEX Experiment Details File Cultiar Code Weather Station Soil Number

FILEC cultivar Data

FILEW weather Data File

WTH.LST SOL.SLT

FILES Soil Data File

FILEP Replicate Data

by plot

FILET Average

Time Course Data

FILEA Average

Summary Data

FILED Replicate Data

by Date

CROP MODELS

OVERVIEW SUMMARY GROWTH CARBON WATER NITROGEN PHOSPHOR PEST ECONOMICS

AGRO-ECOLOGICAL ZONING OF NEPAL

Rice Terai (Actual)

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Eastern Central Western Mid-Western Far-Western

Development Regions

% C

han

ge

fro

m a

mb

ien

t

Actual 580 ppm Actual 580 ppm+1T Actual 580 ppm+2T Actual 580 ppm+4T

Actual 580 ppm+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Actual 580 ppm+4T+1.2R

Rice:

Rice Terai (Potential)

0.00

5.00

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25.00


Development Regions

% C

han

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m A

mb

ien

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Potential 580 ppm Potential 580 ppm+1T Potential 580 ppm+2T Potential 580 ppm+4T

Potential 580 ppm+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+1T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+2T+1.2R Potential 580 ppm+4T+1.2R

Rice:

Rice Hill (Actual)

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00


Development Regions

% C

hn

age

fro

m A

mb

ien

t



Rice:

Rice Hill (Potential)

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00


Development Regions

% C

han

ge

fro

m A

mb

ien

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Rice:

Rice Mountain (Actual)

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5.00

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35.00

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45.00


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Rice:

Rice Mountain (Potential)

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35.00


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% C

han

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Rice:

Wheat Terai (Actual)

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

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30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00


Development Regions

% C

han

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Wheat:

Wheat Terai (Potential)

-20.00

-10.00

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60.00

70.00


Development Regions

% C

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Wheat:

Wheat Hill (Actual)

-5.00

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35.00


Development Regions

% C

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Wheat:

Wheat Hill (Potential)

-10.00

-5.00

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40.00


Development Regions

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Wheat:

Wheat Mountain (Actual)

-10.00

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Development Regions

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Wheat:

Wheat Mountain (Potential)

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

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30.00


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Wheat:

Maize Terai (Actual)

-40.00

-30.00

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00


Development Regions

% C

han

ge

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Maize:

Maize Terai (Potential)

-40.00

-35.00

-30.00

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00


Development Regions

% C

han

ge

fro

m A

mb

ien

t



Maize:

Maize Hill (Actual)

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00


Development Regions

% C

han

ge

fro

m A

mb

ien

t



Maize:

Maize Hill (Potential)

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00


Development Regions

% C

han

ge

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mb

ien

t



Maize:

Maize Mountain (Actual)

-20.00

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20.00

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60.00

80.00

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120.00

140.00


Development Regions

% C

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Maize:

Maize Mountain (Potential)

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

10.00

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40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00


Development Regions

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Maize:

Pokhara Ricey = -0.0967x + 2783.6

R2 = 0.0152

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Total Seasonal Rainfall (cm)

Gra

in Y

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Pokhara Wheaty = 9.2081x + 158.84

R2 = 0.3624

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Gra

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Chambas Rice y = 0.8138x + 1043.1R2 = 0.2203

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Gra

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Chambas Wheaty = 6.2133x + 1181.9

R2 = 0.1435

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Gra

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Rainfall Variability and Yield

Rice Wheat

Baglung Ricey = 2.5738x + 1301

R2 = 0.2304

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Gra

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Baglung Wheaty = 0.6961x + 1059.8

R2 = 0.0137

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Gra

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Lumle Ricey = -0.01 47x + 2680.5

R2 = 0.0006

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T otal Seas onal R ai nf al l (c m)

Lumle Wheat y = 11. 277x + 555. 48

R2 = 0. 4724

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T ot al S eason al R ain f all ( cm)

Rice Wheat


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Socio-Economics


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Scenario

1. Normal (Business as usual)

2. APP

3. Climate change (by 2075)

Indicators Projection by year

2001 2010 2020 2030 2050 2060 2075

Population 23155 27969 33550 39685 54205 62642 76611

Food production (‘000 t)

Normal scenario 8839 10065 11645 13491 18180 21148 26602

APP scenario 8839 12997 18486 - - - -

Climatic change scenario

8839 10046 11596 13399 17941 20791 25986

Edible food availability('000t)

Normal scenario 5802 6657 7766 9069 12409 14540 18484

APP scenario 5802 8584 12335 - - - -

Climatic change scenario

5802 6640 7722 8986 12194 14221 17937

2001 2010 2020 2030 2050 2060 2075Per capita food availability (K-calorie/day)

Normal scenario 2369 2250 2188 2160 2164 2194 2275 APP scenario 2369 2901 3475 - - - - Climatic change scenario

2369 2244 2176 2140 2126 2146 2207

Per capita calorie reqd. (K-calorie/day)

2130 2130 2130 2130 2130 2130 2130

Food sufficiency (%) Normal scenario 111 106 103 101 102 103 107 APP scenario 111 136 163 - - - - Climatic change scenario

111 105 102 100 99 99 102

a. Food Production

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Normal APP Cli. Ch


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Food Sufficiency (%)

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Impact of GHGs on Agriculture

1. With doubling of CO2, productivity of C3 crops particularly rice, soybean, millets and tropical C3 grasses will likely to increase with adoption of more heat tolerant varieties.

2. Simultaneous increase of temperature as a result of doubling of CO2, temperate crops such as wheat, barley, potato, lentil, mustard and temperate grasses will likely to be adversely affected and may need effective adaptation measures.


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3. With the increase of CO2, productivity of C4 crops like maize, sugarcane, sorghum and C4 tropical grasses will be little increased but temperature will have more negative and rainfall will have variable effects.

4. Climate change will have impact on the extinction of biodiversity species and shift in habitat is likely to occur.

5. With the uniform rise of rainfall will have positive impact on overall agriculture but skewed rise (extreme event) will have negative impact on soil nutrient loss due to flood damage and erosion, and will have negative impact on overall agriculture.


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6. With the increased use of chemical fertilizer, N2O emission will likely to increase.

7. If APP target is achieved, there will be significant surplus of food production. There will be marginal surplus under normal scenario. Food production will barely meet under climate change scenario.


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Adaptation Strategies

1. Resource conservation Soil management through such as minimum tillage in the rice-wheat system should be developed. Surface seeding and bed planting in the rice can reduce carbon and water loss (by 10-25 %) as well as the cost of production and thus save large amount of carbon emissions.

2. Development of genetically adaptive varieties Breeding strategies that can incorporate stress attributes such as heat and drought stresses should be adopted. Rice and wheat varieties that can do better under rainfed and heat stress condition would reverse the effect of the process of global warming.


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3. Hybrid crop program Model prediction has indicated that there will be a severe negative effect on maize yield. For instance, hybrid maize that can improve yield at least by 50% will upset the negative effect of climate change.

4. Crop diversification programCrop diversification including multiple and mixed cropping system should be promoted. This will give better insurance to avert the risk of crop failure and diversify income sources and conserve natural resources. e.g. horticultural plantation and other cash crops.


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5. Manage the methane emission from rice field

Rice is the most important crop. Minimizing methane nitrous oxide emission in rice field through efficient use of fertilizer such as sulfur coated urea, slow release fertilizer and with alternate flooding drying and rainfed rice culture would help to reduce the methane emission.

6. Manage the livestock productionImproving ruminant's digestion through better feeding to minimize methane emission from the livestock. This also demands the discarding of unproductive livestock population.In the highland strategic breeding program between yak and cow should be adopted which will have better adaptation to global warming.


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7. Promotion of biogas as a sourceBiogas has been considered an efficient alternative technology for the rural area to supplement the energy and for environment protection. In overall the biogas is a save technology to replace fuel wood and mitigate the global warming. This should be promoted at the rural level.

8. Institutional strengthening Given the topographical variation, climatic zoning should be demarcated and adaptation strategy should be applied. There should be a coordinated effort to the refinement of climatological analysis and implementation of early warning weather prediction system. A strong base on the climatic variability and agriculture should be built in the FYP.


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Conclusion1. Doubling of CO2 will have more of positive

impact on major crops but adversely affected by the simultaneous rise of temperature particularly in the warmer environment and C4

crops.

2. Mountain environment is more favourable than the tropical flat lands to reverse the impact of climate change, but subject to very much micro-climatic condition due to varied topography. Tropical crops likely to move upwards due to likely increase in global temperature.


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3. Present level of marginal surplus will continue to decline and the country may face difficulties to attain agriculture sufficiency.

4. Technological innovation will be required to bridge the productivity gap between the actual and the potential. Use of adaptive crop varieties, improved seeds including hybrids, Efficient use of fertilizer and irrigation and crop diversification will reverse the likely impact of climate change.


UNIT Thank You

Rising CO2 Experiment on Rice and Wheat at NARC

AGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNITAGRICULTURE ENVIRONMENT UNIT Kyoto Protocol enters into force on Feb 16,...

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