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Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Trends in Summer Fallow and Climate Variables in the
Canadian Prairies
S. Gameda, B. Qian, C. A. Campbell, R. Desjardins
WMO Expert MeetingContribution of Agriculture to the State of Climate
September 27-30, 2004
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Land Use Change in the Canadian Prairies
• Beginning in the 1870s over 55 Mha of land brought into agricultural production
• Of this, 30-32Mha under annual crops• Summer fallow introduced in the early 1900s for
moisture conservation– Expanded to a peak of 16Mha (late 1960s)– Currently ~ 5.5-6.0Mha
• What impact has this had on regional climate?• Is it possible to differentiate the agricultural “signal”
from climate variability and change?
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Soil Zones
Bro wn C he rn o ze mDk. Bro wn C he rno ze mBla c k C he rno ze mDk. G ra y Luviso lG ra y Luviso l
N o n Ag ric .
M anitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
Pre p a re d b y theSa ska to o n La nd Re so urc e Unit
M a rc h 1996
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Some Characteristics of the Canadian Prairies
Soil Zone Mean Annual Temp. (C)
Annual Precip.
(mm)
ET
(mm)
Deficit
(mm)
Brown 5 <350 700 400
Dark Brown 2-5 350-425 650 250-275
Black 0-2 >400 500-600 0-150
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Area Under Summer Fallow
Soil
Zone
Crop Land
(M ha)
Area Under Summer Fallow
(Millions of hectares)
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Brown 6.5 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.5
Dark
Brown
8.5 3.6 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.1 1.6
Black 15.0 4.7 4.2 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.3
Total 30.0 11.4 10.7 8.2 8.0 7.0 5.4
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Area Under Summer Fallow
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Are
a (M
ha) Brown
Dark Brown
Black
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Some trends in summer and winter temperature and
precipitation for the different soil zones
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 825 (Brown) JJA Tmax
20212223242526272829
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
Tem
p (
C)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 825 (Brown) JJA Tmin
8
9
10
11
12
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Tem
p (
C)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 825 (Brown) DJF Tmax
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Tem
p (
C)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 825 (Brown) DJF Tmin
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Tem
p (
C)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 825 (Brown) JJA and DJF P
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
P (
mm
)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 776 (Dark Brown) JJA Tmax
20
22
24
26
28
30
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Tem
p (
C)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 776 (Dark Brown) JJA Tmin
8
9
10
11
12
13
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Tem
p (
C)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 776 (Dark Brown) DJF Tmax
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Tem
p (
C)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 776 (Dark Brown) DJF Tmin
-26-24-22-20-18-16-14-12
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Tem
p (C
)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 776 (Dark Brown) JJA and DJF P
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
P (
mm
)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 736 (Black) JJA Tmax
202122232425262728
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Tem
p (C
)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 736 (Black) JJA Tmin
6789
101112
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Tem
p (C
)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 736 (Black) DJF Tmax
-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-20
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Tem
p (C
)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 736 (Black) DJF Tmin
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
Tem
p (
C)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Ecodistrict, 736 (Black)JJA (Red) and DJF (Blue) P
050
100150200250300350
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
P (
mm
)
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Summary of Trends In Climatic Variables
Summer (JJA) Winter (DJF)
Brown No trends in Tmax,
Slight increase in Tmin
Increase in Tmax, Tmin
Marginal increase in Precip. No trends in Precip.
Dark Brown
No trends in Tmax, Tmin. Increase in Tmax, Tmin
No trends in Precip. Marginal decrease in Precip.
Black No trends in Tmax, Tmin Increase in Tmax, Tmin
Increase in Precip. Decrease in Precip.
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Land Use Trend Considerations
• Significant shifts in use of fallow on the Canadian Prairies– Increase from advent of agriculture to ~1965-70
• (max ~ 16M ha)
– Decrease to 5.5 -6.0 M ha
• Similar large scale shifts in Northern US• Impacts of type of fallow
– Tillage (bare soil)– Chemical (light cover)
• Implications wrt regional climate– Summer/winter temperatures, precipitation
Agriculture and Agriculture etAgri-Food Canada Agroalimentaire Canada
Land Use – Climate Interactions
• What impact does the use of summer fallow on such a large scale have on regional climate?
• How can this be differentiated from climate variability and climate change?