The Global Importance of The Global Importance of

Local Forest CommonsLocal Forest Commons

Components of presentationComponents of presentation

�� Forest commons in three conversationsForest commons in three conversations

�� Extent and spread of forest commonsExtent and spread of forest commons

�� Research on forest commonsResearch on forest commons

�� Use data from the International Forest Use data from the International Forest

Resources and Institutions research Resources and Institutions research

network to address three questions about network to address three questions about

outcomes in the wake of prooutcomes in the wake of pro--local reformslocal reforms

�� Methods and data: 152 cases from 10 Methods and data: 152 cases from 10

countriescountries

�� Results: Enforcement and other causal Results: Enforcement and other causal

variablesvariables

Forest commons:Forest commons: forests for which boundaries of the resource, forests for which boundaries of the resource,

identity of users, and property rights to benefits are well defidentity of users, and property rights to benefits are well defined; users have a ined; users have a

stake in governing, central governments formally or informally stake in governing, central governments formally or informally recognize local recognize local

interestsinterests

LivelihoodsLivelihoods

CarbonCarbon

SequestrationSequestration

EcodiversityEcodiversity

Forest commons and governance Forest commons and governance

objectivesobjectives

Forest Commons

Livelihoods

Carbon sequestration

Ecodiversity

Forest commons 3

Strict protected areasCDM Plantations

Forest Commons- 2

Forest commons-1

Natural regeneration

Extent and spread of forest Extent and spread of forest

commonscommons

Increasing prominence of rural Increasing prominence of rural

collective institutionscollective institutions�� Government action and other forces are Government action and other forces are creating new rural institutions for resource creating new rural institutions for resource governancegovernance

(Pretty 2003)

Distribution of forest ownershipDistribution of forest ownership

3910.03910.0466.1466.1180.0180.0145.8145.83188.13188.1TotalTotal

2172.12172.1121.5121.5180.0180.0125.8125.81744.81744.8Developing CountriesDeveloping Countries

1737.91737.9344.6344.60020.020.01443.31443.3Developed CountriesDeveloped Countries

1057.31057.3106.5106.566.766.7106.5106.5777.6777.6Latin AmericaLatin America

418.5418.55.25.2101.4101.415.115.1296.4296.4AsiaAsia

696.7696.79.89.811.911.94.24.2670.8670.8AfricaAfrica

IndiIndi././

FirmFirm

Comm./Comm./

IndigenousIndigenousCommunityCommunityGovt. Govt.

TotalTotal

PrivatePrivatePublicPublicCountry nameCountry name

More than 180 million hectares created in the past two decades

FAO 2005, Forest Trends 2002

Research on forest commonsResearch on forest commons

Rural resource governance: Rural resource governance:

Forest commonsForest commons�� One of the more successful research One of the more successful research programs in the social sciencesprograms in the social sciences–– Volume, continuing vitality, and significant Volume, continuing vitality, and significant findingsfindings

�� Areas of agreementAreas of agreement–– increase in area under common property,increase in area under common property,

–– importance of local collective action,importance of local collective action,

–– importance of enforcementimportance of enforcement

–– what makes some resource governance what makes some resource governance institutions more effective than others in rural institutions more effective than others in rural areas (but this knowledge is imperfect areas (but this knowledge is imperfect –– not not because we do not know what works, but we because we do not know what works, but we know, in a sense, too much).know, in a sense, too much).

Gaps in existing understandings of Gaps in existing understandings of

resource governance institutions:resource governance institutions:

––What are the tradeoffs between What are the tradeoffs between achievements of different social goals achievements of different social goals related to biodiversity, carbon, and related to biodiversity, carbon, and livelihoods?livelihoods?

–– How best to understand the interactions How best to understand the interactions of rural resource institutions with macroof rural resource institutions with macro--political, economic, and biophysical political, economic, and biophysical factorsfactors

––What are the relationships among equity, What are the relationships among equity, sustainability, resilience/ robustness?sustainability, resilience/ robustness?

Essentially, these are questions about what Essentially, these are questions about what

happens after prohappens after pro--local tenure reforms?local tenure reforms?

What happens after proWhat happens after pro--community community

reforms?reforms?

�� What patterns of outcomes in different What patterns of outcomes in different

domains do forest commons generate?domains do forest commons generate?

�� What are the factors that promote better What are the factors that promote better

forest governance by local communities?forest governance by local communities?

�� To what extent can these factors be To what extent can these factors be

promoted by policy and regulatory promoted by policy and regulatory

changes?changes?

�� What should we expect in the wake of What should we expect in the wake of

regulatory reforms?regulatory reforms?

The IFRI research programThe IFRI research program

�� A unique, interdisciplinary, international research A unique, interdisciplinary, international research network on local forest governance.network on local forest governance.

�� Established in 1992, currently has 12 Collaborating Established in 1992, currently has 12 Collaborating Research Centers as members in 10 countries Research Centers as members in 10 countries (approximately 40 researchers)(approximately 40 researchers)

�� A growing international database of crossA growing international database of cross--national, national, timetime--series data on forests, people, and institutions.series data on forests, people, and institutions.

IFRI Data as of September 2007IFRI Data as of September 2007

7987982572571561561172117247247249149188298829352352247247TOTALSTOTALS

77330044111113131111ColombiaColombia

626232324444171171565654541052105256565353IndiaIndia

737312124432321414292939839812121010ThailandThailand

494916167762625252151545245216161616KenyaKenya

404020202222222626151526726710101010TanzaniaTanzania

383812125579793030191935035011111111MadagasMadagas

33332266554430301111EcuadorEcuador

13513529293232225225585831311309130947472929USAUSA--

747420208890903636333370770727271818BoliviaBolivia

149149525250502362369696238238261326131121125151NepalNepal

168168585822255255989852521638163859594747UgandaUganda

OrgnOrgn. .

InventoryInventoryNonNon--HarvHarv. .

Organ.Organ.Forest Forest

Assn.Assn.ProPro--

ductsductsUsersUsers

SettleSettle--

mentmentPlotPlot

ForesFores

ttSite Site

CRCCRC

1. What are the patterns of 1. What are the patterns of

outcomes on forest commons?outcomes on forest commons?(Livelihoods, diversity, carbon sequestration)(Livelihoods, diversity, carbon sequestration)

Preliminary Finding: Depend more on Preliminary Finding: Depend more on onon governance governance

objectives than on governance regimeobjectives than on governance regime

Measures of outcomesMeasures of outcomes

�� Livelihoods:Livelihoods:

–– factor analysis of contributions to factor analysis of contributions to

fodder, firewood, timber, cashfodder, firewood, timber, cash

��Carbon sequestrationCarbon sequestration

–– Basal area of trees per hectareBasal area of trees per hectare

�� EcodiversityEcodiversity

–– Number of tree species per hectareNumber of tree species per hectare

Distribution of forest commons Distribution of forest commons

studied by IFRI researchersstudied by IFRI researchers0

20

40

60

Basa

l A

rea

(sq

.m. p

er

hecta

re)

-1 0 1 2 3Livelihood Index

Low Tree Diversity Medium Tree Diversity High Tree Diversity

AA

BB

DD

CC

Importance of governance objectives Importance of governance objectives

vs. regimesvs. regimes

�� Effectiveness of governance but for what?Effectiveness of governance but for what?

�� Domains of outcomesDomains of outcomes

–– biodiversity/ ecosystem structure and integritybiodiversity/ ecosystem structure and integrity

–– LivelihoodsLivelihoods

–– Carbon sequestrationCarbon sequestration

�� Dimensions of performanceDimensions of performance

–– EfficiencyEfficiency

–– EquityEquity

–– SustainabilitySustainability

2.What factors promote better local 2.What factors promote better local

forest governance outcomes?forest governance outcomes?Preliminary finding: Importance of local enforcementPreliminary finding: Importance of local enforcement

Effective enforcement and predicted Effective enforcement and predicted

probabilities of forest condition changeprobabilities of forest condition change

.2.4

.6.8

Pre

dic

ted

Pro

ba

bili

tie

s

0 1 2 3 4 5Level of Successful Enforcement

Deforestation Regeneration

Effective local enforcement with Effective local enforcement with

and without improvement activities and without improvement activities 0

.2.4

.6.8

1

Pre

dic

ted P

robabili

ties

0 1 2 3 4 5Level of Successful Enforcement

Deforestation without Activities Deforestation with Activities

Regeneration without Activities Regeneration with Activities

Effective local enforcement and Effective local enforcement and

commercial value of forestscommercial value of forests

0.2

.4.6

.8

Pro

ba

bili

ty o

f D

efo

rest

atio

n

1 2 3 4 5Commercial Value of Forest

No enforcement Medium enforcement

Strict enforcement

.2.3

.4.5

.6.7

Pro

ba

bili

ty o

f R

eg

en

era

tio

n

1 2 3 4 5Commercial Value of Forest

No enforcement Medium enforcement

Strict enforcement

RegenerationDeforestation

Enforcement and forest patch sizeEnforcement and forest patch size0

.2.4

.6.8

Pro

ba

bili

ty o

f D

efo

resta

tio

n

0 2 4 6 8 10Log of Size of Forest

No enforcement Medium enforcement

Strict enforcement

0.2

.4.6

.8

Pro

ba

bili

ty o

f R

eg

en

era

tio

n0 2 4 6 8 10

Log of Size of Forest

No enforcement Medium enforcement

Strict enforcement

Deforestation Regeneration

Bottom line: Importance of local Bottom line: Importance of local

collective action and enforcementcollective action and enforcement

�� Local collective action necessary for Local collective action necessary for

effectiveness of institutions effectiveness of institutions ––

–– For creation (even if state policy is For creation (even if state policy is

facilitative), facilitative),

–– For effective functioning (importance of For effective functioning (importance of

participation in multiple dimensions)participation in multiple dimensions)

�� Effective local enforcement and Effective local enforcement and

institutions necessary for positive institutions necessary for positive

changes in forest conditionschanges in forest conditions

3. Which of these factors can 3. Which of these factors can

be changed by policy interventionsbe changed by policy interventions

Preliminary finding: Less than 25% of outcome variancePreliminary finding: Less than 25% of outcome variance

(Caution (Caution –– for local level forest governance; for local level forest governance;

not across governance regimes)not across governance regimes)

Study based on experience of Study based on experience of

commons in India (95 cases)commons in India (95 cases)

�� Six different Six different

types of types of

commons, each commons, each

type in existence type in existence

for more than 25 for more than 25

yearsyears

�� Five classes of Five classes of

variables variables

examinedexamined

19%19%Sociopolitical factorsSociopolitical factors

23%23%Institutional factorsInstitutional factors

7%7%Demographic factorsDemographic factors

13%13%Economic factorsEconomic factors

38%38%Biophysical factorsBiophysical factors

Combined Combined

effecteffectClass of variablesClass of variables

4. What4. What can we expect in the wake can we expect in the wake

of regulatory and tenure reformsof regulatory and tenure reforms

�� First effect is uncertainty about First effect is uncertainty about tenure (depends on credibility of and tenure (depends on credibility of and belief in long term commitment of belief in long term commitment of governments)governments)

–– Likely to lead to negative outcomes Likely to lead to negative outcomes initially (Examples of Nepal, India, initially (Examples of Nepal, India, Indonesia, Mexico)Indonesia, Mexico)

�� But later effects depend greatly on But later effects depend greatly on the architecture of reforms and local the architecture of reforms and local choices about governance objectiveschoices about governance objectives

Basic FindingsBasic Findings�� Effective local enforcement has a strong effect on Effective local enforcement has a strong effect on changes in forest conditions, holding all other changes in forest conditions, holding all other variables at their mean valuevariables at their mean value

�� Effective local enforcement is instrumental in Effective local enforcement is instrumental in improving prospects for greater commercial improving prospects for greater commercial benefits; in the absence of enforcement benefits; in the absence of enforcement commercially valuable forests are rapidly commercially valuable forests are rapidly degradeddegraded

�� Relationship between forest condition and high Relationship between forest condition and high levels of user subsistence dependence is mixed; levels of user subsistence dependence is mixed; effective local enforcement improves likelihood of effective local enforcement improves likelihood of forests being in better condition even in the forests being in better condition even in the presence of significant harvesting activitiespresence of significant harvesting activities

�� Local enforcement breaks down for forest Local enforcement breaks down for forest commons where patch size is largecommons where patch size is large

Larger contextLarger context

�� Whereas domain outcomes depend on Whereas domain outcomes depend on management objectives, the factors driving management objectives, the factors driving outcomes on performance dimensions more outcomes on performance dimensions more complex;complex;

�� Equity: Higher valued outputs tend to be Equity: Higher valued outputs tend to be appropriated by the better off members of appropriated by the better off members of community (large scale logging community (large scale logging vsvs local local enterprises enterprises –– conflict between efficiency and conflict between efficiency and equity); At the local levelequity); At the local level–– Downward accountability of local decisionDownward accountability of local decision--makers to makers to their constituents their constituents –– relevance of meaningful local relevance of meaningful local electionselections

–– Importance of education and womenImportance of education and women’’s literacy in s literacy in promoting improved outcomespromoting improved outcomes

Future implicationsFuture implications

�� Need for greater local ownership of forests Need for greater local ownership of forests (role in deciding what to do with forests (role in deciding what to do with forests and also in implementing those decisions) and also in implementing those decisions) to strengthen their incentives for to strengthen their incentives for enforcementenforcement

�� Need for more resources to communities Need for more resources to communities and their institutions to support their ability and their institutions to support their ability to enforce locally to enforce locally –– capacity building capacity building

�� Need for development of greater synergies Need for development of greater synergies between mitigation and adaptation through between mitigation and adaptation through communitycommunity--based forest governancebased forest governance

�� Need for more work on relationships Need for more work on relationships between efficiency, equity, resiliencebetween efficiency, equity, resilience

Big questionsBig questions

�� Tenure and regulatory reforms account for only a Tenure and regulatory reforms account for only a proportion of positive outcome variance. When proportion of positive outcome variance. When will a greater role for greater product substitution will a greater role for greater product substitution and better processing technologies become and better processing technologies become viable?viable?

�� If local control and choice over forests turns out If local control and choice over forests turns out to be at odds with effective governance (in terms to be at odds with effective governance (in terms of income enhancement, carbon sequestration, of income enhancement, carbon sequestration, and and ecodiversityecodiversity, would it still not be worthwhile , would it still not be worthwhile to decentralize governance to decentralize governance –– for the sake of for the sake of greater equity and to further democratic greater equity and to further democratic processes?processes?

�� Reforms take time. What is the appetite among Reforms take time. What is the appetite among large institutions and governments to take risks large institutions and governments to take risks of making mistakes and learn from being wrong?of making mistakes and learn from being wrong?

Further Information about IFRI

http://www.umich.edu/~ifri