Agrarian change in tropical forests: A change for the better?

Agrarian change in tropical forests: A change for the better?

Terry Sunderland & teamFLARE, Edinburgh

3rd December 2016

Agricultural expansion remains major driver of deforestation

Transformation of natural systems has resulted in significant environmental degradation

Global food system is in crisis (Global Nutrition Report 2016)

Belief that biodiversity conservation and agriculture cannot co-exist

Ca.60% of world’s food originates from diverse small-holder farming systems in complex landscapes

Agro-ecological approaches being advocated (e.g. IPBES 2016)

Need strong evidence-based for implementation

Context

Agrarian Change Project: Research goals An integrated landscape

approach to explore the livelihood and dietary implications of land-use change and agrarian change processes in six multi-functional landscapes.

Provide insights into how globally conceived land-use strategies (e.g. land sharing/land sparing trajectories) manifest locally and how they are embedded into local histories, culture, and political and market dynamics.

Natural vegetation ‘Secondary’ vegetation Agricultural land

Agrarian change in tropical landscapes

Agricultural modification

Tree

cov

er

Photo credits: CIFOR

Land sharing


Agrarian change in tropical landscapes

Tree

cov

er

Natural vegetation

‘Secondary’ vegetation

Agricultural land

Land sparing

Study Sites

FOREST (CONTROL) ZONE 1 ZONE 3ZONE 2

Agricultural modification (simplification and intensification of commodities)

Tree

cov

erExperimental Design

A landscape-level approach, with a nested 3-level hierarchical design:

1. A landscape exhibiting changing land use practices and agrarian change

2. Three land use ‘zones’ in each landscape, a gradient of agricultural modification

3. Villages or settlements within each zone

1

2

3


Experimental Design



Tree

cov

er

Subsistence farming, high dependency on

forest products





1

2

3


Experimental Design



Tree

cov

er

E.g. Subsistence farming, high dependency on forest resources

E.g. Rubber agroforestry system


forest products Extensive coffee

agroforesty





1

2

3





Experimental Design



Tree

cov

er

E.g. Subsistence farming, high dependency on forest resources

E.g. Rubber agroforestry system E.g. Oil palm

monoculture


forest products Extensive coffee

agroforestyIntensive oil palm

monoculture

1

2

3

Field MethodsIn each zone the following methods are used:

Household Surveys

Focus Group Discussions

Key Informant Interviews

Farm Productivity

Surveys

BiodiversitySurveys

Yield measurements

Farm inputs (e.g. fertilizer, labour)

Production targets

Resource flow mapping

Wealth ranking

Food / cash calendars

Nutrition assessments

Ecosystem service mapping

Community perceptions

Tree plots

Bird point counts

Invertebrate trapping

MET

HODS

BiodiversityRelative povertyNutrition

Food securityEcosystem services Livelihoods

Agricultural production

RESP

ON

SES

Study site: Kapuas Hulu, Kalimantan, Indonesia

Primary forest

Rubber agroforestry

Oil palm plantation

Oil palm concession

Study site: Kapuas Hulu, Kalimantan, Indonesia

Agrarian ChangePrimary forest

Rubber agroforestry

Oil palm plantation

Oil palm concession

Photo credits: Dominic Rowland


Initial results…..

Predicted Dietary ChangesTwo hypotheses:

Alternative Hypothesis :

• Loss of forest access and traditional agriculture is adequately compensated for by increased household income and better access to markets

• Same or increased dietary diversity

• Increased consumption of expensive foods such as meat and dairy

Forest loss hypothesis:

• Loss of forest access and traditional agriculture results in poorer diets

• Dietary diversity decreases• Consumption of fruits,

vegetables and animal source foods decreases

• Increased consumption unhealthy sugars, fats and processed foods

Increased agrarian change Increased agrarian change

Dietary Diversity

Fats, sugars, processed foods, ASF

Fruits and vegetables

Actual changes in dietsTwo different patterns:

Sustained Decrease:

• Decrease in HDDS across zones 1-3 as agrarian modification increases: e.g. Indonesia Bangladesh and Ethiopia

• Driven by reduced frequency of consumption of most food groups

• Suggests income from cash crops and market access does not fully compensate for loss of traditional agriculture and forest access

Sustained Increase:

• Increase in HDDS across zones 1-3 as agrarian modification increases: e.g. Cameroon, Burkina Faso & Zambia*

• Driven by increased frequency of consumption of most food groups

• Suggests income from cash crops and market access compensates for loss of traditional agriculture and forest access

Increased agrarian change Increased agrarian change

* Burkina Faso almost follows this pattern with some differences including no difference in HDDS

Dietary Diversity

Fats, sugars, processed foods, ASF

Fruits and vegetables

Implications for diets• Forest loss and agrarian modification precipitates a rapid nutrition transition • Classic nutrition transitions often follow an ‘expansion phase’ followed by a

’substitution phase’• Expansion phase = more food (seen in communities where hunger and

food insecurity was previously a problem)• Substitution phase = transition to energy rich foods (oils, fats, sugars,

processed carbohydrates, ASF)• In Cameroon, Burkina Faso and Zambia, there is increased consumption of

all food groups: Suggests that increased income and market access leads to an expansion phase

• In Indonesia, Bangladesh and Ethiopia, diets are poorer because of reduced overall consumption of most food groups: Suggests the opposite of an expansion phase, with loss of forest foods but not being replaced by market sources

• Agrarian change does not have to lead to poorer diets, but can certainly do so unless attention is paid to dietary consequences

“Areas of swidden/agroforestry, natural forest, timber and agricultural tree crop plantations were all associated with more frequent consumption of food groups rich in micronutrients. The swidden/agroforestry land class was the landscape associated with more frequent consumption of the largest number of micronutrient rich food groups. Swidden cultivation in is often viewed as a backward practice that is an impediment to food security in Indonesia and destructive of the environment. If further research corroborates that swidden farming actually results in better nutrition than the practices that replace it, Indonesian policy makers may need to reconsider their views on this land use”. Ickowitz et al., 2016

Country-level results: summary impacts on poverty and livelihoods

Indonesia: Major dietary transition towards processed foods which has major impact on nutrition and health status

Bangladesh: Agroforestry seen as an important livelihoods strategy but only for those with secure tenure

Ethiopia: Loss of forest has actually led to increased poverty due to loss of common grazing land and access to fuelwood

Cameroon: Annexation of land for oil palm concessions has resulted in land displacement and encroachment into protected areas. Threatens future regional food security.

Zambia: Heavy policy emphasis on agriculture for food security at expense of forests. Loss of safety-net function

Burkina Faso: Recurring droughts are increasingly common and income from forest products (timber, fuelwood and NTFPs) are important safety-net to purchase food during dry periods. Continued forest loss will further jeopardise future adaptation strategies

Conclusions Across study regions, loss of forest

to agriculture does not necessarily result in direct livelihoods benefits

Diets inevitably transition with access to income and markets, but not necessarily for the better

Landscape mosaics are better at achieving multiple benefits, including ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation, so landscape configuration is important

Land sparing/sharing paradigm does not necessarily play out in reality as it implies some level of “grand design”

Contribution of forest products has been dramatically underestimated for both diets and income

www.landscapes.orgwww.cifor.org @TCHSunderland

http://www.landscapes.org/

http://www.cifor.org/

Agrarian change in tropical forests: A change for the better?

Environment

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