Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente

Às quartas, às 17h

João Gomes Ferreira

Lisboa, 6 de Março 2013

Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal

Aquacultura – o novo período Neolítico http://goodclam.org/apa

Talk outline

• The new Neolithic – food from the sea (4)

• Sustainability and carrying capacity (10)

• Virtual tools for aquaculture (10)

• New ideas, going offshore? (4)

• What about Portugal? The FORWARD project (17)

• Synthesis (1)

http://goodclam.org/apa

Trends in fisheries and aquaculture

r² = 0.99, p<0.01

40

45

50

55

60

65

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

September 2011

Capture fisheries for human consumption

Aquaculture Data points Extrapolation

Year

Live

wei

ght

(10

6 t

on

ne

s p

er

year

)

Equivalent to the emergence of agriculture 10,000 years ago in the Neolithic period

Aquaculture in Europe and the world

• 90% of the 68 million tonnes (Mt) of aquaculture products (105 billion USD)

originate from Asia (Sorgeloos)

• Production of striped catfish Pangasius in the Mekong delta is >1 Mt y-1,

highest yields in the world, 350-400 tonnes ha-1 per crop (Sena da Silva)

• 30 Mt y-1 of extra aquatic products required to feed the planet by 2050

(Swaminathan)

• US predicted expansion from 0.5 to 1.5 Mt y-1 (Olin)

• Europe: production is 4.2% by volume, 9.1% by value (Sorgeloos)

Growth of both population and aquaculture will take place in developing

nations.

Volume and value

Fast (FAO) facts

Aquaculture in Europe

• Aquaculture is the most heavily regulated food production sector in Europe

(Varadi)

• Competition for space, access to capital, availability of special services,

limited authorised veterinary products (Varadi)

• Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC) – no reference to aquaculture.

Benthic biodiversity, fish (in transitional waters); Good Ecological Status in

Europe by 2015

• Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008/56/EC) – Fish and Shellfish

Quality Descriptor (QD3). Aquaculture is seen only as a pressure. Good

Environmental Status by 2020

• Many other parts of the world don’t come close to the EU regulatory

panorama

In all likelihood Europe will add value over volume.

Sustainability and legislation

Environmental, legal, and social pressures

Imports to Europe

Courtesy P. Sorgeloos, 2010, FAO GCA plenary address, Thailand.

If European consumption was at the level of Portugal (57.4 kg y-1 per

capita) an extra 27 Mt of fish products would be required annually.

Sustainability criteria: foundation in classical ecology

Current global criteria for site selection

• Space availability

• Limits to production

• Habitat destruction

• Coastal eutrophication

• Organic enrichment

• Loss of biodiversity

Environmental basis varies widely

Expansion of aquaculture has historically been a bottom-up process

Licensing or development

Reservoir culture in Mae Tak reservoir, Chiangrai, Thailand Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus

Pond culture in Chiangrai, Thailand Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus

Aquaculture growth in Brazil (1994-2009)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

An

nu

al p

rod

uct

ion

(to

n)

21 % annualized

growth

• Many reservoirs are used for tilapia cultivation – steel cages keep the

piranhas at bay;

• Typical culture practice: stocking density of up to 300 kg m-3, harvest at

800 g after a 9 month growth period;

• Carrying capacity is determined as 1/6 of the total allowable phosphorus

(30 g L-1), determined using the Dillon & Rigler (1974) model.

High growth, high impact, fragile assessment

Typical production

250 cages per hectare

200 kg m-3, 6 m3 cages:

300 ton ha-1 cycle-1

Over carrying capacity farming

An extreme case study of cage farming in

Sandu Bay

Yellow croaker

(Zhang, 2008)

Zhu, 2010

Rapid overstocking…

• Yellow croaker cage farming was started in

Sandu Bay in 1995, 1000 fish cages in

Qingshan, 1996.

• 50,000 fish cages in Qingshan, (260, 000

fish cages in the whole Sandu Bay,) 2005

• Carrying capacity research indicated 40% of

the cages should be removed in 2005, but

things remain unchanged.

Zhu, 2010

Zhu, 2010

Ecosystem Approach to Aquaculture

(the gospel according to FAO)

• Aquaculture should be developed in the context of

ecosystem functions and services (including

biodiversity) with no degradation of these beyond their

resilience;

• Aquaculture should improve human-well being and

equity for all relevant stakeholders;

• Aquaculture should be developed in the context of

other sectors, policies and goals.

Three principles

Soto, 2010

EAA: ecosystem balance, social equity, multiple uses

Different types of carrying capacity

for aquaculture

Southeast Asia,

China

Production

Ecological

Governance

Social

US, Europe,

Canada Types of carrying

capacity

Limiting factor

Limiting factor

Different parts of the world see carrying capacity in very different ways

From technologies to tools Example: Stage 1. Circulation model – connected systems

Belfast

Lough

Strangford

Lough

Carlingford

Lough

Northern

Ireland

Republic

of Ireland

Irish

Sea

• Larval dispersal;

•Diesease;

•Xenobiotics.

Case study – AkvaVis expert system

Ervik A, Døskeland I, Hageberg A.A., Strand, Ø., and Hansen P.K. in prep. Virtual

decision support tool (AkvaVis) for integrated planning and management in aquaculture.

• Applied for mussel and finfish

farming

• Three modules share the same

databases but apply information

for different purposes

• Siting module identifies

potential farm sites, simulates

carrying capacity

• Management module compiles

information needed by the

authorities for aquaculture

management

• Application module promotes

efficient application and ensures

that all relevant information is

provided

Norwegian fjords, site selection

Puget Sound – NW United States Samish Island Manila clam farm at low tide

(it is under 8-10 feet of water at high tide)

3 year crop cycle, annual production ~35-45 mt

Simulation of clam live weight with Samish

Island environmental drivers

Liv

e w

eig

ht

(g)

Julian Day

The AquaShell model shows a good fit to project data for live weight.

Negative scope for growth in winter

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Aquashell model

2009 plant - preharvest June

2010 seed

2011 seed

Manila clam growth model (AquaShell) Mass balance

Simulation of Manila clam growth using Samish Island drivers provides outputs on

production and environmental effects. These are then scaled to the culture area.

Puget Sound, USA Manila clam harvest at Samish Island

Mechanical harvest + year class strips + imagination = profitable business.

FARM model

Application to Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA)

Ferreira et al., 2012. Cultivation of gilthead bream in monoculture and integrated multi-trophic aquaculture. Analysis of

production and environmental effects by means of the FARM model. Aquaculture 358-359, p. 23-34.

Use of the FARM model for shellfish or finfish monoculture, and IMTA.

Samish Island Manila clam farm FARM model simulation for nutrient trading

At a cultivation density of 70 animals per sq ft. clams provide an annual

ecosystem service equivalent to over 1000 people in reducing eutrophication.

Marginal analysis FARM model – application to Samish Island Manila clam farm

TPP (tonnes) APP MPP

VMP = MPP.Po VMP = Pi MPP = Pi/Po

Pi = 40 USD Po = 5.1 USD

Seed (tonnes)

Har

vest

able

bio

mas

s (

ton

nes

live

wei

ght)

A

PP

and

MP

P (n

o u

nits)

- 10

0

10

20

30

40

50

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Present

seeding

Optimal MPP = 7.84

Simulated harvest in the FARM model is 48 tonnes per year (declared 35-45 tonnes)..

The Samish Island farm appears to be well below carrying capacity, with respect to food

supply. However, at the current stocking density, high mortality is already a problem.

9.5 tonnes of seed

Crabs and clams from 1 ft2

Clams eaten by crab

Interaction of aquaculture with other ocean activities

• Competition for space: in the EU and US,

shorefront use is a critical limitation;

• Social concerns re: visibility, both of culture sites

at sea and processing plants on land;

• Environmental and genetic pollution, escapes,

disease;

EU COEXIST project (http://coexistproject.eu/)

• European scale - example case studies: Hardangerfjord,

southern North Sea, Adriatic Sea, SE Portugal;

• Interaction matrices – among uses, interaction types;

• Reconciling offshore activities – e.g. mussel farms in wind

parks;

• Reducing the environmental footprint: Integrated multi-

trophic aquaculture (IMTA).

Bird Directive FFH EEZ FFH coastal waters

Planned Under construction Approved Running Declined

Effort (hours per year)

EEZ

German Shrimp fisheries >300PS, BEAM>80mm

Dutch mixed flatfish fisheries >300PS, BEAM>80mm

GIS models, system scale – CoExist project (vTI, Germany) Marine spatial planning for optimization of coastal uses

Marine spatial planning and environment. Water moves, animals move

Offshore aquaculture

http://ecowin.org

123 countries with at least 100 km2 that meet these criteria: 106 - 107 ton y-1

Current speeds: 0.1-1 m s-1, suitable depth range for cages and longlines

Kapetsky et al., 2010. FAO

Workshop, Rome, 2010.

Combination of offshore windfarms and aquaculture

Potential use of wind turbines and enclosed space for

cultivating finfish, shellfish, and seaweeds

The FORWARD project

POLIS Ria Formosa

Download the COEXIST/FORWARD book at http://goodclam.org/forward/

Faça download do livro COEXIST/FORWARD em http://goodclam.org/forwardpt/

FORWARD and COEXIST modelling framework

Different models for different questions. Scales are from minutes to decades.

Terrestrial boundary

conditions

Ov

erv

iew

Catchment: Nutrient Load

WWTP (project pop) N exports (kg/ha.yr)

Nitrogen:

• WWTPs: 590 ton N/yr

• Diffuse sources: 560 ton N/yr

Phosphorus:

• WWTPs: 85 ton P/yr

• Diffuse sources: 180 ton P/yr

Ov

erv

iew

Connectivity: Offshore- Ria Formosa (circulation model)

Tidal circulation in the Ria Formosa, Algarve. Water residence time of 1-2 days.

EcoWin2000 system-scale model – spatial framework

The system is divided into 34 boxes, two vertical layers. Boxes were defined

using GIS based on uses, legislation, water quality, and hydrodynamics.

EcoWin2000 model – system-scale clam production

System-scale carrying capacity is spatially variable, depends on ocean connections.

Declared harvest: 2000 t y-1

Actual harvest: >5000 t y-1

E2K model: 2300-6700 t y-1

Revenue: 20-50 million € y-1

Direct jobs: 4000-5000

Goods and services from bivalves

1 2

3 4

5 6

7 8

9 10

11 12

13 14

15 16

17 18

19 20

21 22

23 24

25 26

27 28

29 30

31 32

33 34

35 36

37 38

39 40

41 42

43 44

45 46

47 48

49 50

51 52

53 54

55 56

57 58

59 60

Water fluxes Water fluxes

• Removal of organic waste from finfish aquaculture

• Detrital organic material enhances shellfish growth

• Bivalves may act as a firewall to prevent disease spread

Up to 70% finfish At least 30% bivalves

Several large areas in the Algarve are currently designated for

offshore aquaculture

Mass balance for gilthead cultivation Weight: 350 g, AquaFish model

Food

ingestion

449 g DW

Respiration

0.78 kg O2

Digestion in

the gut

Faeces

126 g DW

Feed

supplied

463 g DW

Feed

loss

14 g DW

Organic

pollution

140 g DW

Urine

7.4 g NH4

Inorganic

pollution

7.4 g NH4

Energy

assimilated

385 kcal

Cultivation:414 days

Current: 10 cm s-1

Biomass: 350 g FW

Length: 29 cm

FCR: 1.3

ADC (N): 82%

Anabolism: 1471 kcal

BMR: 277 kcal

SDA: 809 kcal

Swimming: 0.2 kcal

FARM model for culture of finfish AquaFish model – gilthead bream (Sparus aurata)

Mass balance for gilthead pond culture – models are important for optimization

Ferreira et al, 2012. Aquaculture 358–359 (2012) 23–34.

1

2

3

45

3,463,493,523,553,583,61

12

34

56

78

9 1011 12

PO

M (

pe

rce

nti

le 9

0 m

g l-1

)

No aquaculture

1

2

3

45

3,463,493,523,553,583,61

12

34

56

78

9 1011 12

Only fish

1

2

3

45

3,463,493,523,553,583,61

12

34

56

78

9 10 11 12

Only mussels

1

2

3

45

3,463,493,523,553,583,61

13

57

911

PO

M (

pe

rce

nti

le 9

0 m

g l-1

)

IMTA: mussels + fish

3.58-3.61

3.55-3.58

3.52-3.55

3.49-3.52

3.46-3.49

Positive externalities of shellfish culture

EcoWin2000 - Simulated change in clam harvest due to

offshore aquaculture of mussels

An annual loss of 120 t of clams (1.2 million €) is offset by 13,000 t of mussels

• Even if you solve 50% of the problem, you still need to resolve the other half

• Social aspects and governance cannot be modelled, but are very important

• Examples: moving animals among regions can spread disease; small leases can conflict with each other; governance issues over the use of machines; obstacles to certification

• Lots of plans, no practical results – respecting multiple uses (third principle of EAA): the Paper Park syndrome

• Good governance is a major element of success

The FORWARD and COEXIST projects - Carrying capacity

Social aspects and governance - The other 50%…

Mathematical models can address part of the issues, but that

still leaves the rest...

Virus Particle tracking: Ratio between concentrations at XYZ and emission concentration

• Disease source: APPAA

• Virus concentration:

Up to 2x106 ml-1

• Forcing functions wind and tide

• No decay

• 6 day model run

• Release in mid-water layer Meridian (m)

Para

llel (m

)

5 km

APPAA

Disease

source

Background virus release the first 2 days, high release on days 3,4

and 5, then a reduction by a factor of a hundred on the last day.

Virus exposure

Meridian (m)

Para

llel (m

)

Exposure

(h)

APPAA

Disease

source

0

90

20 km

Number of hours of exposure to 0.5% of the shedding

concentration as a measure of potential infection.

The revenge of the killer mussels…

Huge mussel fouling in the summer of 2012. Spat from offshore culture?

The revenge of the killer mussels – part II

February 19th 2013: mussel

fouling on untreated fish

culture nets. The nets sank

under the weight of mussels.

The four orders of coastal governance outcomes

Avoiding the ‘paper park’ syndrome (from Olsen, 2003)

National

Regional

Local

First order:

Enabling

conditions

Formalized

mandate with

implementing

authority

Management

plans adopted

Funding secured

Constituencies

present at local

and national levels

Second order:

Changes in

behaviour

Changes in

behaviour of

institutions and

stakeholder groups

Changes in

behaviours directly

affecting resources

of concern

Investments in

infrastructure

Third order:

The harvest

Some social

and/or

environmental

qualities

maintained,

restored,

or improved

Fourth order:

Sustainable

coastal

development

A desirable and

dynamic balance

between social

and environmental

conditions is

achieved

Final

outcomes

Intermediate

outcomes

Time

• Portugal precisa de mais aquacultura, mas uma boa parte terá que ser desenvolvida nos grandes estuários, e.g. Tejo e Sado;

• A nossa costa ocidental é muito agitada – o cultivo vai ser caro e dificil em termos logísticos. A costa sul é melhor mas há mais conflitos de usos;

• Temos que decidir quais as espécies, quais as zonas, e qual o mercado, senão temos a fábula do bacalhau e da panga;

• Para competir no mercado de peixe, temos que fazer o ‘branding’, a certificação, e definir classes intermédias de produto. E aproveitar a boa imagem do pescado nacional;

• Estamos longe da realidade: é preciso fazer mar, e não só falar mar―não foi assim que chegámos à India.

Read the book! http://goodclam.org/forward/

Conclusões

Leia o livro! http://goodclam.org/forwardpt/

http://goodclam.org/apa

Resilience…