Agile methodologies, bath university march 2011

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Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2011 & Risk Management Option 2010.03.25

Identifying, structuring and piloting disruptive situations using agile type of methodologies

Approaches and case studies

MBA 2011 & Risk Management Module (Prof. Emmanuel Fragnière)

March 25, 2011

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Synopsis :   Agenda

  About us

  Managing disruptive situations

  Case study : Disruption in the luxury Hotel Industry

  Wrap-up & Good-luck

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Time table

Friday March 25, 2011

Concepts + Methodologies

Training using a case

Luxury Hotel Part A

- Working Group preparation - Group presentations - Plenum discussion

Luxury Hotel Part B

- Working Group preparation - Group presentations - Wrap-up

March 25, 2011

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Synopsis   Agenda

  About us




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About us

Patrick Bays

  Lic. Econometrics, MBA IMD

  15 years of international exposure in

o  the prototyping and the implementation of disrutptive innovation

o  change management within several industries

  PwC, Tetra Pak, Swisscom, UCB Pharma, Wake Asset Management

  English, German, French

Philippe Steinmann

  Expert Auditor

  20 years of international exposure in :

o  the management of special projects

o  Supporting organizations facing volatile situations (high growth rate, turnaround)

  KPMG, Ilta Holding, Euroterminal

  English, French

March 25, 2011

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Synopsis :   Agenda

  About us


  A : Positioning

  B : Methodologies

  C : Training



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Risk awareness changes perspectives…

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Basic reminders: the Board of Directors sets the risk appetite

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Set the stage and quickly agree upon a common language

E

Event

Crisis management

Vulnerability analysis Anticipate Apply Restore Prevent

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5

Business Continuity Planning

Risk Management Contingency Planning Recovery Management

Threats Measures Norms and protocols

Standards of engagement

Manage the information

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These situations have something in common …

… no one anticipated their disruptive character and the storm that followed.

Toyota suspends sales January 2010, recall list

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A situation of disruption occurs when ...

for a given organizational system….

Equilibrium A new

equilibrium

Correctives measures

Period of high vollatility

A particular event causes a disruption of this balance which threatens the sustainability of this system

E

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Afterwards, most actors agree they were unable to grasp the severity of the situation …

…due to a slowly increasing disturbing feeling invading and panicking them

•  No abrupt change but soft slips causing discomfort and doubts

•  Lack of response and lack of anticipation leading from the start to to become chronic victims of events

•  Lack of internal coordination and consultation

•  Chaotic and contraductory internal so as external communication

Symptoms

Pot

entia

l im

pact

Low

H

igh

No Yes

Anticipated event

Crisis Management

Managing the unexpected

Operational Management

Fault Management

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The management of such a disruption is fundamentally different if the triggering event could be anticipated in advance ...

E

Event

Crisis management

Vulnerability analysis Anticipate Apply Restore Prevent

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5

Managing the unexpected

React Restore

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Military forces

Emergency doctors

The observation of extreme behaviors in emergency situations has helped us to define our methodology in business occasions

Crisis situation

Qua

lity

of th

e in

form

atio

n av

aila

ble

Estimated Normed

Méd

iocr

e P

reci

se, c

alib

rate

d

Time management emergency situations

ED

MiF

Mgr

t

…

SStart SInt.1 SInt.2 SInt.n

Method of dynamic resolution by successive iterations

t SStart SEnd

3 minutes

Standard behaviors and normed protocols

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The military method of dynamic resolution by successive iterations

Analyzing and Planning

Triggering emergency measures

Draft backplanning

Assessment of the situation

Shaping decision

Developing the engagement plan

Identification of the problem

Iterations

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The economic drama seems never ending…

2008 : Financial Crisis 2009 : Economic Crisis 2010 : Social Crisis 2011 : - Currency Crisis ? - Government Debt Crisis ?

… Companies have managed to survive this turmoil by becoming more agile and flexible

March 25, 2011

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The Cougars in a nutshell :

  Agenda

  About us


  A : Positioning


  C : Training



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Our approach combines the strengths of two frameworks using cross functional teams to quickly generate an impact

•  A technique to rapidly immerse a team into a situation for problem solving in : o Product development o Process improvement o Customer service strategy

•  An agile and lean methodology used for software development: o Designed to adapt to changing

requirements during the development process at short regular intervalles

o Allows teams to priorize customers requirements and adopt work produced in real time to customer needs

Deep Dive Scrum

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Deep Dive: step by step

Inspiration Implementation Ideation

Observe and inquire

Tell stories

Synthesize

Execute

Spread

Visualize Realize

Refine Evaluate

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M66ZU2PCIcM

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Scrum in a nutshell http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmGMpME_phg http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5k7a9YEoUI

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But the IDEO Frameworks reaches some limits as soon as the requirements need to be re-priorized permanently

Scrum methodology mainly used for software development provides a strong framework to address this topic

Scrum

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An high level illustration of our Agile Development Methods

Inspiration Ideation Implémentation

Observe and ask

Develop a Storyline

Priorize

A dynamic approach under dynamic environmental monitoring

Co-Create

Deep Dive Scrum

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In practice, a situation of high volatility is resolved step by step

Project Management & Communication

Step 2

Decision

Clarification

Step 3

Decision

Agile Prototyping

Step 1

Decision

Scoping

Urg

ency

mea

sure

s

Step 5

Decision

Implementation, controls and adjustements

Step 4

Decision

Gain support

Storyline

Planing

Change management & Implementation

Pro

cess

To

ol-B

ox

March 25, 2011

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  Admin stuff

  About us


  A : Positioning


  C : Training : the Ukrain’s case



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The Ukrainian case : 1998 & 2010, bis repetita

General situation: the Ukrainian environment End of the 90’ Ecosystem was reaching an equilibrium : •  Liberal government, development of an economy oriented •  Facilities for foreign company to develop business in provinces •  Stability of the system (social and economic) & the regulation •  Average monthly salary : 250 - 400 US$ •  Compliance review of all contract by local government 3-6 months later Particular situation : the Group structure, activities and Group structure & Activities •  Trading Co , Crushing plants (250K MT), Distribution’s company •  Purchase of sunflower seeds in regions for both crushing and selling abroad. Crude oil

produced & sold around the world. •  Approx. 400 contracts signed and performed per year (seeds, oil, meal) •  1 lawyer and 2 assistants employed by the group to review the contracts (standard)

Salient factors to be determined Activity risk, delivery risk, payment risk, contractual risk (review by the government)

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Part A : What are the major salient factors of operating this business in Ukraine (at an equilibrium state of its ecosystem) ?

•  • 

•  • 

•  • 

•  • 

1

2

3

4

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1 2 4 3

Part A : Hierarchy of salient factors in a balanced ecosystem:

Eisenhower matrix

Low

Risk matrix

Low

Low

3

4

2

1

Like

lihoo

d

Urg

ency

Impact Importance

Hig

h

High High

Low

H

igh

1 2 4 3

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Part B : Disruption :

Majority Change at the parliament : the communist Party takes over power on Liberals :

The Parliament will be formed in one week after the election : •  its objective will be to reduce the margin of private firms for public

companies and increasing taxes, fines and penalties. •  It will seat from 09:00 to 23:00, 6 of 7 days, toughening laws

strictly and adding a multitude of fines and penalties for any non-compliance with contract law or in changing contractual terms (delivery date, quantity & quality treated…).

Changing laws will be treated anarchic and could be amended or changed every day. •  Chancery will publish new laws every day at midnight for an

immediate application.

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Part B : What are the major salient factors of operating this business in Ukraine after disruption ?

Other ?

…

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1 2 4 3

Part B : Hierarchy of salient factors after disruption :

Eisenhower matrix

Low

Risk matrix

Low

Low

3

4

2

1

Like

lihoo

d

Urg

ency

Impact Importance

Hig

h

High High

Low

H

igh

1 2 4 3

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Part B : Prototyping an embryonic solution : the best you can do to be ready in only one week

March 25, 2011

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  Agenda

  About us



  Part A : At an Equilibrium state

  Part B : Managing disruption


March 25, 2011

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  Agenda

  About us



  Part A : At an Equilibrium state

  Part B : Managing disruption


March 25, 2011

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  Agenda

  About us



  Part A : Diagnosis, Scoping and Clarification

  Part B : Prototyping & implementation

  Wrap-up

March 25, 2011

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  Agenda

  About us

  Managing disruptive situations in crisis times using agile type of methodologies


  Wrap-up

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Agile methodologies, bath university march 2011

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