Agile Estimating: Moving Away from Hours
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Transcript of Agile Estimating: Moving Away from Hours
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Presented by Russ Fletcher
in partnership with
Agile Estimating:Moving Away from Hours
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Agile Described...
‣ Agile is a philosophy and a process that drive us to focus on delivering the highest business value in the shortest time.
‣ The business sets the priorities. Teams self-organize to determine the best way to deliver the highest priority features.
‣ Every two weeks to a month anyone can see real working software and decide to release it as is or continue to enhance it.
...in less than 100 Words
Courtesy Mike Cohn
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Product DeliveryIllustrating the 5 Levels of Agile Planning
1
3
2
4
5
Vision PlanningYearly by the product owner
Roadmap PlanningSemi-yearly by the product owner
Release PlanningQuarterly by the product owner and team
Sprint PlanningBi-weekly by the team
Daily PlanningDaily by the team and individuals
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Release 1 Release 2 Release 3 Release 4
InventoryDatabase
PaymentSystems
Security
FulfillmentSystems
Product Tracking Customer Loyalty
Advertising
Product RoadmapProduct Vision1
2
3
4
5
Agile Overview
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Estimating Ideal Time
• Basketball game• How much longer will
the game take?• Actual game time
remaining is 12:48• Ideal time is like
basketball game time
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Estimate Types
• Time-based vs Relative Estimating• Time-based Estimating focuses on elapsed
time• Relative Estimating focuses on size and
complexity
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
What People Hear
• What do Customers, Stakeholders, Marketing and others do with our estimates?
• Estimates drive expectations
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Games We Play
• If we know that estimates drive expectations, what do we do with our estimates?
• This leads to “estimate bloat” in highly dependent, traditional project plans
Or we INFLATE them!
We pad ourESTIMATES
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Relative Estimating
• Not time based(days, hours, weeks...)
• Size• Complexity
• Two techniques:• Triangulation• Bracketing
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Story Points
• Unit-less measure of • Size• Complexity
• We know that 8 is four times the size of 2
8
2
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
• Mike Cohn’s Dog Point exercise
• Assign “dog points” to the following breeds based on size and complexity
Dog Breeds PointsDachshund
Labrador Retriever
Great Dane
Terrier
German Shepherd
Poodle
Bulldog
St. Bernard
Chihuahua
Relative EstimatingAssigning “dog points” to demonstrate relative sizes
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
The Scale
• Not an infinite scale• Specific Sequence -
0, 1/2, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100, ?
• Try to keep it small - stories estimated too large are candidates for being split
• Stay with this sequence!
Relative estimating sequence is based on the Fibonacci series. Leonardo of Pisa, aka Fibonacci, studied patterns in nature and found this sequence utilized again and again. The sequence was foundational for the discovery of the ‘golden ratio’.
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Estimating Story Points
• Use comparisons - stories of similar size• Group stories of similar size to notice
consistency• Triangulate - don’t compare to only one story
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Estimating Story Points
• Don’t spend too much time on each story• Estimate as much as is needed for
planning....nothing more• Epics (large stories) should be set aside to be
broken down
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Planning PokerUsing PlanningPoker.com
• Steps for playing planning poker• Each estimator has a set of cards on their screen• Customer/Product Owner describes a story and
allows for brief discussion• Each player selects a card on their screen for their
estimate• Once everyone has estimated, then all cards are
shown at the same time• Discuss differences• Re-estimate or discuss to reach convergence
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Macro Estimating
• Relative estimating/Story Points works fine for small pieces of functionality, but...
• ...how do I do project-level estimation?
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Product DeliveryIllustrating the 5 Levels of Agile Planning
1
3
2
4
5
Vision PlanningYearly by the product owner
Roadmap PlanningSemi-yearly by the product owner
Release PlanningQuarterly by the product owner and team
Sprint PlanningBi-weekly by the team
Daily PlanningDaily by the team and individuals
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Release Planning
• Release Plan provides a connection from the Roadmap to our Sprints
• Provides visibility to how we deliver• Resources• Timing• Backlog Priority
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Team Velocity
• How much can the team FINISH in a single sprint
• Factors effecting team velocity• Number of resources
• Interruptions
• Multi-tasking
• Over time, team velocity is derived from actual data
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Velocity
• Understanding the team’s capacity (velocity) will enable release planning
• Over time utilize multiple data points to derive velocity:
• Fastest pace• Average pace• Slowest pace
Slowest
Average
Fastest
Using velocity to plan the release
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Release Planning
• Take into consideration:• Stories• Priorities• Story Points• Velocity• Customer/Product Owner input
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Release Planning
Sprint 1Story A - 3 ptsStory B - 2 ptsStory D - 5 pts
Sprint 2Story C - 5 ptsStory E - 2 ptsStory F - 3 pts
Sprint 3Story G - 8 ptsStory H - 3 pts
Release 1
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Release Planning
Sprint 1Story A - 3 ptsStory B - 2 ptsStory D - 5 pts
Sprint 2Story C - 5 ptsStory E - 2 ptsStory F - 3 pts
Sprint 3Story G - 8 ptsStory H - 3 pts
Sprint 4Integration
Sprint
Release 1
Continuous Integration can save significant time
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Release 1 Release 2 Release 3 Release 4
InventoryDatabase
PaymentSystems
Security
FulfillmentSystems
Product Tracking Customer Loyalty
Advertising
Product RoadmapProduct Vision1
2
3
4
5
Agile Overview
Copyright 2013 Davisbase LLC.
Thank You!
Russ FletcherVP Business Dev.Davisbase, [email protected](801) 636-4802